Lou’s MLB Over/Unders Part 2
5) Cincinnati Reds (Over 84.5)
What’s most striking about the Reds is the sheer depth of their team, extending to the high minors as well. Unlike teams such as the Cardinals, this depth means the floor is fairly low, so much so that I’d be somewhat shocked to see this team finish below .500. There’s not a lot of upside in terms of the key hitters so it would be just as surprising for Votto & Friends to surpass what they did last season. That said, they won 91 last season so there’s 6 games of slack here.
4) San Francisco Giants (Over 88)
A full season from Brandon Belt and Buster Posey should help this offense be the best the Giants have had since Barry Bonds retired. There’s some risk here with the starting pitching as the Giants have little depth beyond their initial five and would be best served by limiting Madison Bumgarner’s innings as he’s probably the highest risk of the bunch. 92 wins + a championship and their total is only 88? Not sure what I’m missing as unlike past editions, there’s no gaping hole/ overly washed up veteran anywhere in the lineup. Maybe Miguel Tejada.
3) Arizona Diamondbacks (Over 72.5)
Arizona’s bullpen was historically bad in 2010.
In 439 innings, they allowed 307 runs to score, 280 of which were earned. That comes out to a 5.74 ERA, over a full run more than the next worst team (the Cubs, 4.72). On top of that, the Diamondbacks also allowed 78 of 189 inherited runners to score, a 41% mark which ties the Dodgers for the worst in the Majors.
Assuming the bullpen improves (and by definition it has to), the only risk for under 73 here is health. Justin Upton, Kennedy and Hudson all need to stay on the field. The lineup should score enough runs to keep them competitive, if not all the way back flirting with .500.
2) Boston Red Sox (Over 95)
See what Pat wrote. A full season of Pedroia, Gonzalez and Crawford will really help the offense. While it might not appear so at the end of the year because they play in the East, Boston may have the best pitching staff in the league this year.
1) Seattle Mariners (Over 70)
Their offense was as bad as Arizona’s bullpen last year. While it won’t be good, it should rebound to below-average and combined with Felix + some other pitchers that will hopefully get them back into the 70s. I don’t really want to forecast a 10-win improvement. but that’s why it’s a one point play.
