Marathon Monday – A Bettor’s Guide to the Action
Marathon Monday is less than two weeks away. Essentially everyone who reads this site knows that I have a substantial amount of money riding on my performance this year. I have given Bones and DaGow 13:1 odds that I will break the four hour mark this year, at 50 and 20 bucks respectively. Intense stuff. In addition to that I have a couple of 50 dollar straight up bets out there based on beating four hours and a pub crawl bet with a girl whose also running. With all that in mind, here is the odds breakdown.
WILL PAT D BREAK FOUR HOURS:
Yes : -200
No : +200
For anyone not fluent in gamblese, -200 means that the odds are 1:2 that something will happen, you bet two dollars to win one. +200 means the odds are 2:1, you bet one dollar to win two. The reason I am making myself a favorite is because I just have so much damn money bet on myself. If I was running this for fun it would probably be just as likely that I would be drinking booze halfway through the race. With that in mind…
Will Pat D Run the Entire Marathon
Yes : -500
No : +500
I have entered the Boston Marathon twice, finishing it once (4 hrs, 30 mins) and dropping out after 17 miles the second time. Again, this line would be a lot different if I didn’t have a boatload on the line.
Over/Under Water or Sports Drinks During Race : 11.5
I honestly have never kept track of this in the past but I am guessing this sounds about right. As a guide, the absolute minimum I could see on drinks would be like 8 or 9.
Will Pat D Beat the Random Girl Mentioned Above Who You Have Never Met (Updated)
Yes : Even Money (Updated Line)
No : Even Money (Updated Line)
You know you want to bet on this, you know you are tempted to throw five dollars on or against a girl you have never met. As a guide, she is in her mid-20s in good condition. I am almost 100% positive she has never run a marathon before, and I currently have an email out to her asking what time she expects to run the race in. I may update the line accordingly when a response gets back, but this is the line at this moment.
UPDATE
Originally, this line was me -250, and the girl +250. However, I received this email response back from her when I asked about time…
I’m shooting for 3:40, but will probably be more like 3:45ish. What about u?????
CRIPES! This girl means business. First of all, she has her expected time nailed down to a five minute window, and on top of that she pops out with FIVE IN YOUR FACE QUESTION MARKS right back in my grill asking me what time I expected. I was even tempted to make her a slight favorite at this point but I do hold one slight advantage over her and that’s that I have run the race before. But goodness.
SECOND UPDATE
Follow up e-mail from Corinne
I ran in 2007 in 4:16
Oh Billy!
Will the Sox Game Still be Going On as I pass Fenway
Yes : Even Money
No : Even Money
Opening pitch at the game is scheduled for 11:05 AM. I will hit the starting line somewhere around 10:35 AM. You do your own math. Note : If I drop out, “No” wins.
Will I Ejaculate From Now Until the Marathon
Yes : +500
No : -500
You will notice that for all these lines I have excluded juice from the action.
That’s about all I got for plays at the moment. If any other good ones pop into people’s minds feel free to make additions.
