NCAA Conference Win Totals

Posted in Basketball - 2010/03/17 - 2 Comments

Bookmaker has a prop up listing how many games each conference will win in this year’s NCAA tournament. My initial instinct was 7 1/2 wins for the ACC was way too low. The best (or second best) conference has six teams! How can they only be expected to win 7 or 8 games? Wayne Winston had a nicely formatted chart that used the Sagarin Ratings to project out win probabilities for each team. I aggregated these by conference and came up with the following (substitute your own numbers from Pomeroy or someplace else as you wish):

Projected Conference Win Totals

I definitely didn’t expect it, but the Big East under certainly looks appealing. Unsure probability wise how 1.5 wins stacks up with the +115 on the under (Needs to hit 47% to break even), but it’s about as anti-public as you can get.

EDIT: After some feedback from a couple of people, I re-ran these numbers using the Pomeroy projections and this morning’s changed lines. MUCH better.

2 thoughts on “NCAA Conference Win Totals”

  1. 5-1 today, have Syracuse for 150 bet vs Vermont -17, should be fun, I love NCAA picking up from game of “skill” that is poker @ Foxwoods

  2. Pingback: More Tourney Talk | Miracle Covers

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