Early Overs
Start of season Overs are scalding hot ATM. They have hit somewhere in the area of 2/3rds of the time, and then last night was just an over orgy. There appear to be a few exceptions that I can see…Mets, Rockies, White Sox, and Athletics really jump off the page as not joining in on the run-fun. For the next couple nights we are going to track (and most likely bet) the following…
TT Unders for NYM, COL, CWS and OAK
Gm Overs for everyone else
Let’s see how this plays out. Will update.
Easter Sinner
Jannik Sinner dominated the Miami Open over the last couple of weeks, an occurrence which has prompted me to look up Future Lines for the remaining 2024 Grand Slams. I have zero issues on most of the lines…Alcaraz and Djok are clear #1 and #2 respectively for the French, Nadal at #3 seems highly optimistic but who knows. Same at Wimbledon, where last year Alcaraz somewhat stunningly won his first grass tournament at Queens Club and then improbably followed that up with his first Wimbledon title. Alcaraz and Djok running 1A/1B there seems very justified…
But the US Open odds are where things seem super interesting. If you go back to early/mid January, the Future Odds were more or less this…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +150
Medvedev +800
Sinner +800
But lets move forward to a post-AO ’24 world…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +160
Sinner +350
Medvedev +700
Over the last few months, Jannik wins his first major (taking down Djok in the process) and destroys the field (incl Medvedev) in Miami. He compiles a record of 16-1 (all on hard-courts). His lone loss comes to Alcaraz in SFs @ Indian Wells, a match Vegas makes Sinner a slight favorite in…So if Sinner is strolling around beating Djok and Meddy, while being favored over Alcaraz, I think a smart move is to capitalize on the “line lag” going on with the US Open. Yes, Sinner has yet to win in New York…The furthest Sinner has gone @ US is QF 2022 (5-setter vs Alcaraz), and he gets bounced LY in another 5-setter vs Zverev in the Round of 16. But again, that is pre-AO Sinner…The dam has been breached. I believe at this exact moment Sinner is the best hard-court player on the planet. Sinner (+350) ’24 US Open Future is the recommendation. There is a chance we don’t see a hard-court number this high next to Sinner for quite some time.
MLB Over/Unders – A New Twist on an Old Theme
Normally in this space we would write about a half-dozen or so season-long Over/Under picks…friend of the program Van Tran suggested he and I do a snake-draft on these this year, so below I am going to record the results of that draft and add a few thoughts when they come to me. We automatically gave ourselves Overs on our respective teams, (Mets and LAD)…I had first pick.
PD #1 – SF Giants Over 84.5
VT #2 – O’s Over 90.5
VT #3 – Tigers Under 81.5
PD #4 – StL Under 84.5 I borderline despise myself for this pick, it is as anti-sharp as a pick can get. But that doesn’t mean it wont happen…the way I rationalize the selection is Vegas was going to get enough money placed on StL to win the division that this O/U had to be in this ballpark. In a very sick way I would have preferred taking this Under @ like 79 or something.
PD #5 – Padres Under 83.5
VT #6 – LAA Under 71.5
VT #7 – Marlins Under 77.5
PD #8 – Nationals Over 66.5
PD #9 – Pirates Over 76.5
VT #10 – ATL Over 101.5
VT #11 – Astros Over 92.5
PD #12 – TOR Under 87.5
PD #13 – A’s Over 57.5
VT #14 – CWS Under 61.5
VT #15 – TB Over 85.5
PD #16 – Red Sox Over 77.5 Eno Sarris from The Athletic is way higher on the potential for the Boston rotation than essentially anyone else Ive come across, and I usually trust what he thinks. Also Alex Cora is one of like 3-5 managers in baseball that I think makes a tangible positive difference to a teams performance and results.
PD #17 – NYY Under 92.5
VT #18 – Rockies Under 60.5
VT #19 – Reds Under 82.5
PD #20 – CHC Under 84.5
PD #21 – D’backs Over 84.5
VT #22 – TEX Over 88.5
VT #23 – Brewers Under 77.5 This is going to be a race to the finish-line in my opinion…All indications point to Milwaukee being way worse this year than in the recent past. How long can the players on the field keep the boat afloat as it is sinking towards the end of the season?
PD #24 – Philly Under 90.5
PD #25 – Cleve Under 80.5
VT #26 – KC Over 73.5 This and the Milwaukee line are why Vegas is evil. Everyone knows MIL will likely be worse, so Vegas drops a lead weight on their win total and asks, “How low are you willing to go?” KC has a young, fun team that is going to be better than last year. “You want to root for their Over this year? Well lets see them win EIGHTEEN MORE GAMES! HA!”
VT #27 – Seattle Over 87.5
PD #28 – Minn Over 86.5
PD #29 – NYM Over 81.5
VT #30 – LAD Over 103.5
MLB Over/Unders
Another year, another round of Regular Season Win Totals. We are a little over 48 hours out from first pitch in Queens, so these lines are essentially concrete. Now I missed the Dodgers and Padres because of their Korea adventure but Ill see if over the next couple days we can figure something out there. First things first, the numbers…as always, heavy juice noted…
Arizona D’backs – 84.5
Atlanta Braves – 101.5
Baltimore Orioles – 90.5
Boston Red Sox – 77.5
Chicago Cubs – 84.5
Chicago White Sox – 61.5
Cincinnati Reds – 82.5
Cleveland Guardians – 80.5
Colorado Rockies – 60.5
Detroit Tigers – 81.5
Houston Astros – 92.5
KC Royals – 73.5 (O -130)
LA Angels – 71.5
LA Dodgers –
Miami Marlins – 77.5 (U -130)
Milwaukee Brewers – 77.5
Minnesota Twins – 86.5
NY Mets – 81.5
NY Yankees – 92.5
Oakland A’s – 57.5 (O -130)
Philadelphia Phillies – 90.5
Pittsburgh Pirates – 76.5
SD Padres –
SF Giants – 84.5
Seattle Mariners – 87.5
St Louis Cards – 84.5
TB Rays – 85.5
Texas Rangers – 88.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 87.5
Washington Nationals – 66.5
How far we have come…in years past Vegas would pick out a very likely shitty team, boost up its win total by a tick and then throw (U -155) juice at you. But now only a handful of (-130s)…I can tell a lot of my action this year will be NC Central themed. Back in a day or 2 with the picks…
Super Bowl LVIII Props ‘n Plays
Super Bowl in Las Vegas…time for some props!
Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -136
Been hammering this one all playoffs; can also see it hitting with KC’s good secondary and Purdy will be checking down a lot.
Christian McCaffrey (-334) and Travis Kelce (-126) to score Touchdown +135
Parlaying both with these TD machines.
Brock Purdy Rushing Yards OVER 13.5 -114
He scrambled well in the playoff games previous, and probably will have to move as KC secondary will make him hold the ball longer than usual to get him to move.
Will there be a Missed Field Goal by SF Kicker Jake Moody – YES +240
He’s been shaky all year.
Isiah Pacheco Carries OVER 16.5 -104
He should get the ball in this game, even with McKinnon coming back.
Will there be a Successful 2-PT Conversion Attempt in the Game? YES +240
Everybody’s going for 2 these days
Brock Purdy Interceptions OVER 0.5 -157
Purdy also probably has the most dropped INTs I have seen this year.
First to Score TD: Kelce +600, Pacheco +600, Purdy +3000, Kyle Juszczyk +3500
First Offensive Play of Game – Pass +120
GAME PICK:
Chiefs +2 -105
Also teasing with the OVER 47.5. Shanahan’s shaky record in big games, especially in the 4th quarter, KC having the edge at QB, and could be Andy Reid’s last game. I’d also say, if you are taking Travis Kelce to propose to Taylor Swift after the game (+820), parlay that with KC ML for maximum value.
Championship Weekend
Ravens -3* -115
Now at -4…. Mahomes is amazing but I think the lack of WRs catches (no pun intended) up to him today. The Chiefs also lose OL Thuney which will be huge against a very good Ravens front 7 that Mahomes will be running away from a lot today. Ravens also get back CB Marlon Humphrey and TE Mark Andrews. Lou likes the UNDER 44 in this one. I just hope Harbaugh doesn’t fuck this up with some wacky game decision. Props: Mark Andrews Receptions OVER 3.5 +127 and Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards OVER 29.5 -120.
San Francisco -7
Not taking the line because it’s too big on both sides and we know how Detroit games go…but I do like the OVER at 51.5 -110* as here should be points in this one. Props I like: Jared Goff INT OVER 0.5 -152, Deebo Samuel Rushing Yards UNDER 9.5 -114, and Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -137.
TEASER +170: KC +4, KC/BAL UNDER 44, SF -7.5, SF/DET OVER 51.5
NFL Divisional Round pt 2
Tampa Bay +6.5 -110*
Now at 6. I hate betting ON the Lions… and hate betting against them too. Tampa should keep it close with their defense, but their undoing could be the red zone offense so also taking FG OVER 3.5 Prop +104.
Buffalo -2.5 -110
This is another tough game to bet. Should be a defensive back and forth. I do like Rashee Rice Receptions OVER 6.5 -105 and Dalton Kincaid Receptions OVER 4.5 +105.
Divisional Round pt 1
Houston +9.5 (-105)*
The Ravens come into the playoffs as the hottest team in football… but they always seem to find ways to keep teams close in these big games. Harbaugh also doesn’t always make the best game decisions. Stroud has looked like he should of been the #1 pick, and the Texans have also drafted well around him. If the Texans can stop the run, they will have a chance in this game.
San Francisco -9.5 (-110)*
Shanahan owns Lafleur head to head, and I think as good as Jordan Love has played, he’ll not has as many opportunities off play action as he did against Dallas as I am sure the 49ers aren’t gonna have two down lineman like the Cowboys did for most of the game letting Aaron Jones run wild. I also have for a prop: Brandon Aiyuk +120 for ANYTIME TD* and Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 +102*.
Wild Card Weekend pt 3
Steelers +10 -115*
We also have the UNDER at 38.5 -110*… and that was BEFORE the big snow storm which cancelled the game (and where the total went down to 35). The Bills have played well in their resurgence, but they keep teams around due to bad turnovers from Josh Allen as well as giving up big plays on defense at times. The Bills one minute look like a Super Bowl team; the next, you think “how did they get here?”. They have run the ball better with some RB depth which helps Allen not have to rely on his arm so much. Tomlin’s guile will keep his team hanging around and the weather will help their banged up defense. For props: Jaylen Warren Receptions OVER 3.5 +104*, Dalton Kincaid Receptions OVER 5.5 +129*, Total FG Made OVER 3.5 +140*.
Philadelphia -3 -115
Seems like everybody on television is picking Tampa Bay; Philly limped into the playoffs and come into this game banged up but this Bucs team is also a fairly underwhelming side that only won because they are in the NFC South. I also expect a lot of Philly fans at this game. For props: Cade Otton ANYTIME TD +300*, Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards UNDER +100*, Dallas Goedert Receptions OVER 4.5 -164*.
Wild Card Weekend pt 2
Packers +7 -105*
The Cowboys have had a great season and should wipe the floor with the Packers… but it’s the Cowboys and Mike McCarthy will find a way to fuck this up and either keep it close or choke all together. Interesting that 2/3rds of both money and handle on Dallas yet the line went down… only the Cowboys. For props, I have Dak Prescott INT OVER 0.5 -106* and Jayden Reed Receptions AT LEAST 5 +112*.
Rams +3 -105
Another tough game to call; we do like the OVER at 51 -110* as there will be points in this game with both QBs of former teams motivated to ball out. For props, I like Jared Goff INT OVER 0.5 +100*, Cooper Kupp Receptions OVER 6.5 +106*, and Tyler Higbee ANYTIME TD +300*.
