NFL Championship Sunday
Denver +6 (-120)
Now down to +3.5 as of this writing…tons of money on the Pats tonight, the ML is probably on every parlay this weekend. I do think the Patriots will win this game, but it will be a dogfight in a place that has been a house of horrors for the Pats my whole life. Peyton will have Stidham do well out the gate, but I think the theme that will continue is what Vrabel, McDaniels, and Maye have done this entire season: outcoach/outplay their counterparts in the 4th quarter. Also, Denver’s secondary is banged up and I think it will hurt them in the end, a lot like last week where they got lucky that Buffalo didn’t have actual deep threats (but still threatened them downfield due to shoddy safety play, a banged up Surtain, and snow leopard CB Riley Moss); I like Kayshon Boutte ANYTIME TD +320 for this reason (I also think the Pats have won everygame he’s scored a TD in this year). NE’s line has been shaky, so I like Nik Bonitto getting a sack at -145 vs a struggling LT Will Campbell, and Drake Maye will have to run to create offense (along with hopefully McDaniels calling some bootlegs and mesh plays to get Denver’s defensive line to think) and I like the OVER rushing yards for Maye at 30.5 (-114). Courtland Sutton Receptions UNDER 4.5 is another play as he will have CB Christian Gonzalez on him, on top of the fact he had like 3 drops in last week’s game; usually the backup QB throws to the WR3 more due to having a better rapport with him (that is Pat Bryant; UPDATE: taking the OVER at 3.5 as Franklin is now inactive, although as he is coming off concussion and he’s one hit away but I do know most DFS people like him today for this reason). Denver’s defense is very good in the red zone, and the Pats have also played better in the red zone this postseason and will be vs a backup QB, so I like both kicking OVER points props for Borregales (7.5 -120) and Lutz (6.5 -145) and therefore putting both in parlay at +104. FINAL SCORE: Pats to win 23-20, so I am taking the NE 3, DEN 0 square at +2200 (so it also locks in 13-10, 23-10, and 33-30 scores).
Seattle -2.5 (-105)
Is Scam Darnold no more? Well, it also helps to be in a great homefield with a solid defense and special teams. This is LA’s 3rd game in a row on the road, and it will be unusually cold as balls in Seattle today so I think LA will have a tough time generating passing offense and therefore taking Matt Stafford INT OVER 0.5 -121; the variable is where Seattle generates offense outside of JSN and Walker, as they lost RB Zach Charbonnet for the season. One X factor: outside of the “thicker kicker” Mevis, the Rams’ special teams sucks balls. The Rams have struggled significantly: having two extra points blocked, a field goal blocked, and two punts blocked this season. For this reason, there could be a safety so I like that at +900 and could be a way for Seattle to generate good field position to make up for their offensive deficiencies. For receiving, I like A.J. Barner Receptions OVER 3.5 +145 and Davante Adams UNDER 4.5 -156. I can’t find it, but wish I could bet Puka Nacua OVER rushing attempts because McVay loves calling the jet sweep with him (and did it a little too much last week IMO). The game will be close, both teams punting on their first drive (+300), but I do like Seattle in the end; FINAL SCORE: Seattle 26, LA 20.
DFS:
Divisional Round 2026 NFL
Went 4-1 ATS last week… let’s keep the good times rolling!
Buffalo +1.5 -110
I’ve also seen pick’em here… I just can’t take Bo Nix in a playoff game, even with the coaching advantage and the NFL’s #3 defense. Denver has been testing fate all year in close heart attack games, and against Josh Allen that’s a recipe for failure, even vs a banged up Bills team. For props, I like Dawson Knox at least 3 receptions +129, Knox at least 2 receptions and Shakir at least 5 receptions -121, Evan Engram Receptions UNDER 2.5 -120, and Bo Nix INT OVER 0.5 -110. Also throwing in a teaser with the Rams at -3.5 and SF +7.
SF +7 -120
3rd time for Seattle and 49ers meeting… usually these are close games. No Kittle for the 49ers and they will have a hard time throwing the deep ball without a true threat… but it’s not like Seattle’s offense is this juggernaut either. They have 1 WR and it’s the playoffs and we just can’t trust Scam Darnold. That being said, I can see Seattle winning this with a late field goal after a Shanahan game management blunder. I also like Eddy Pineiro Kicking Points OVER 6.5 -110.
Patriots -3.5 -110
Houston has a generational defense, but they make too many mistakes with penalties (especially pre-snap) and C.J. Stroud is the king of the red zone interception so they will let NE back into the game even if they get a lead. If I was DeMeco Ryans, I would just have Stroud watch old 2000 Ravens games, point to Trent Dilfer and just tell him, “just do that (which is nothing)”. For props, I like Hunter Henry Receiving 1H Yards OVER 17.5 -110, Kayshon Boutte Receiving Yards OVER 31.5 -110, Kayshon Boutte ANYTIME TD +375, and C.J. Stroud INT OVER 0.5 -120.
Rams -3.5 -110
I’ve tried to get this a three all week, and now it’s at -4. I just can’t take Caleb Williams in a playoff game that doesn’t involve the choking Packers. I also like Rams -2.5 1H -110, and Colston Loveland Receptions AT LEAST 5 and Puka Nacua Receptions AT LEAST 7 at +100.
Wild Card Weekend
My plays are in BOLD, but we also will pick all the games here:
Carolina +10.5 -115
I’ve seen as low as +9… this really should be at +7. Carolina beat them in Charlotte earlier in the year, and the Rams playing a relatively early East Coast start, let crappy teams hang around in games. I also like Tetairoa McMillan Receptions OVER 4.5 +102.
Chicago +1.5
This was a pick’em at some point… I’d want to usually hammer the Bears with the home field and coach advantage, and the Packers are banged up and limped into the playoffs. I just can’t trust the QB, so putting Bears in +145 teaser instead with CAR +10.5 and JAX +1.5 as all 3 games should be close, so I also like UNDER 46.5. I do like Caleb Williams Rushing Yards OVER 22.5 -118.
Jacksonville +1 (-114)
I’ve seen go both ways, from BUF -1.5 to PK to now JAX -1.5. Despite having the better QB, I just think Jacksonville is the better team. Plus ask any Bills fan, Jacksonville is a house of horrors for the Bills, who have never won there. And there’s also the specter on Sean McDermott having the recently fired John Harbaugh over his head taking his job if he loses.
San Francisco +6 -110
Should be around +3 as Philly isn’t that better over most of this tournament field, even against a banged up 49ers squad. Sirianni also has potential specter of Harbaugh coming if he loses this game; his team hates him.
New England -3.5 -110
Pats at home on cold weather game vs banged up Chargers squad. Pats are banged up too, especially at WR and DE, but unless Maye craps his pants in his first playoff game, the QB and coaching advantage should see them through. I do like Justin Herbert Rushing Yards OVER 29.5 -114 as Patriots have issues guarding mesh on the edges and Chargers with banged up OL will give up pressures and have hard time running the ball with the RB, especially if Hampton doesn’t play.
Houston -3 -107
Dome team on the road in the cold, but Houston has the best defense in the field, the Steelers backed into the playoffs, and according to a local Steelers fan I know, Aaron Rodgers may or may not be on menopause. I’ll prob end up chopping this one, TBH. I also like DK Metcalf Receptions UNDER 4.5 -170.
Week 18 NFL
DAL -3 (-110)
Hedge vs our season 7.5 bet, we stand to chop if DAL loses. And they might to this shit Giants team who should lose for a chance at the #1 pick.
NO +4.5 (-110)
Should be 3, even with Saints injuries, in this darby. The NFC South week 18 comedy resulting from this game is hilarious. I hope it ties.
CLE at CIN OVER 46.5 (-105)
This game will be a shitshow.
PARLAY +275: NE -570, DEN -800, KC -275, DAL -220, BUF -355
Congrats to Shedeur Sanders, who at -435 today to throw a pick, beat the famous Jameis zone at -395 (while at TB)… a new record! We’ll be parlaying another INT with him today (4 weeks in a row!). Most props won’t be available until later today due to inactives/proposed load management.
PROPS: Shedeur Sanders -435 & Riley Leonard -182 & Jared Goff +100 @ +281; C.J. Stroud Pass Attempts UNDER 29.5 -114; Tony Pollard Rushing Yards OVER 76 -114; Hollywood Brown ANYTIME TD +250; Hunter Henry Receptions OVER 4.5 +111
DFS:
Week 17 NFL
SF -3 (-110)
NY Jets +13.5 (-110)
ARI at CIN UNDER 53 (-110)
TB at MIA OVER 44 (-105)
TEASER +145: CIN -7, TEN +1.5, LAR -7.5
PROPS: Philip Rivers Passing Yards OVER 206.5 -120; Hunter Henry AT LEAST 5 Receptions EVEN: Shadeur Sanders & Bryce Young INT OVER 0.5 +162
Week 16 NFL
Detroit -7 (-110)
Detroit 14-1 ATS when coming off a loss
Houston -14.5 (-105)
Houston may have an all-time defense. The Raiders may have an all time late season blow up.
Titans ML +150
Getting odds against Minshew? I’m in.
CIN at MIA OVER 48 (-110)
These defenses stink.
PROPS: Demario Davis AT LEAST 9 tackles -103; Josh Allen AT LEAST 1 TD -112; Geno Smith Longest Pass Completion UNDER 29.5 -110; Ashton Jeanty Rushing Yards UNDER 46.5 -120; Shadeur Sanders -205 & Geno Smith -190 INT OVER @ +125
DFS:
Week 15 NFL
CLE at CHI UNDER 39 -110
Now at 38. Crappy weather, crappy teams, crappy quarterbacks.
Seattle -13.5 -110
Now at 14. Whether it’s a rookie QB making his first start, or a 44 year old guy literally off his couch… Seahawks will again take advantage of their easy schedule.
LA Chargers +6 -115
I know the Chargers are banged up but… did the books watch KC play last week? They aren’t 6 points better than 95% of the league right now.
DET at LA Rams OVER 54.5
PROPS: Sam Darnold INT UNDER 0.5 -125; Amon-Ra St. Brown AT LEAST 6 Receptions & Puka Nacua AT LEAST 7 Receptions -170; Caleb Williams Attempts UNDER 29.5 -120; Caleb Williams Rushing Yards OVER 127.5 -135; Trevor Lawrence INT OVER 0.5 +125
DFS:
NFL Week 14
PIT at BAL UNDER 43 -110
Both teams banged up, kinda suck, and this game historically is a rock fight. The AFC North sucks in general; I took Steelers UNDER 8.5 for the season and I think 8-9 by PIT/CIN/BAL can actually win that division lmao
New Orleans +7.5 -110
Saints have been feisty as of late, and the Bucs keep teams in games, getting 63% of the money today. So far in 2025, teams drawing 60% or more of picks are 40-55-1 ATS (42%)
LA Rams -9 -110
Bounce back game against a tanking team
CIN at BUF UNDER 54.5 -110
It’s snowing, and both teams’ defenses have played better recently.
TEASER +150: DEN -7.5, LAR -8.5, JAX +2
PROPS: Puka Nacua Receptions OVER 7.5 -135; Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards UNDER 25.5 -105; Cam Ward & Shadeur Sanders INT OVER 0.5 +261; Tyrod Taylor Passing Attempts UNDER 28.5 -110; Chase Brown ANYTIME TD +120; Kirk Cousins INT OVER 0.5 -115; Devaughn Vele Receptions AT LEAST 4 +102
DFS:
Week 12 NFL
Detroit -10 (-110)
Now at -14. We all know Detroit’s prowess vs the spread after a loss, especially against a crappy Giants team who struggles vs the run. Also taking Lions 1Q at -3 (-120).
NE at CIN OVER 51 -110
Should be points in this one. Also taking Cincinnati first to score at +120 because the Patriots always give up a TD on the first drive.
NY Jets +14 -110
Ravens and John Harbaugh are crappy vs big spreads at home when they are right, nevermind when they are scuffling as they are this season.
Las Vegas -3.5 (EVEN)
Held my noise as I bet this, but we are just gonna keep betting against CLE QB Shadeur Sanders until otherwise.
ATL at NO UNDER 41 -110
Darby in thee Dome… always a rock fight, especially with these shitty, banged up offenses.
TEASER +150: NO +1.5, NE -7, LAR -6.5
PROPS: Jahmyr Gibbs 2 TD +155; David Montgomery Rushing Yards OVER 52.5 -130; Drake Maye Rushing Yards OVER 25.5 -120; Shadeur Sanders Passing Attempts UNDER 29.5 -150; Brandon Aubrey Kicking Points OVER 7.5 -130; Saquon Barkley Receptions OVER 2.5 -110; Shadeur Sanders & Jameis Winston to Throw INT +127
DFS:
NFL Week 11 & 112th Coupe de Grey
NY Giants +7 (-105)
In Jameis I trust… more like Green Bay isn’t 7 points better than anybody right now.
Tampa +6 -105
SF -3.5 -120
CHI at MIN OVER 48 -110
CIN at PIT 1H UNDER 24 -110
TEN +215 ML
TEASER +150: WAS +2.5, BAL -7.5, DET +2.5
PROPS: Saquon Barkley Receptions OVER 2.5 -125; Puka Nacua Receptions OVER 7.5 -110; Caleb Williams Rushing Yards OVER 23.5 -120; Bo Nix Completions UNDER 21.5 -115; Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards OVER 36.5 -125; Jason Myers Kicking Points OVER 7.5 -125
DFS:
112th Grey Cup: Montreal ML +135
