Category: NFL
March Madness Thursday
Probably will have more during today on the Twitter feed as I’ll be at Encore Sportsbook
Missouri ML +105
Penn St vs Texas A&M UNDER 134.5 -110
West Virginia -2.5 -110
TEASER 4 PT -120: Kansas -22, Alabama -24, Furman +6
Super Bowl LVII Props and Pick
Anytime TD: Hurts -130, Scott +450, Kelce -150, Pacheco +125
First TD: Miles Sanders +850, Goedert +1000, Skyy Moore +3500; Kadarius Toney +1500
Rec Yards: Pacheco OVER 18.5 -114, Goedert OVER 51.5 -114
Receptions: Pacheco OVER 3 +120
Mahomes: Over Pass Att 39.5 -121
Hurts: Rush Attempts OVER 11 -130
First Offensive Play Of Game Is A Pass – Yes +115
Result of First Coaches Challenge – Play Stands +105
The OCHOCINCO SPECIAL: Total Punts Over 6.5 -114
Pick:
Chiefs +1.5
This is a tough game to call; I choose the better QB over the better overall team but this is Philly’s first test in a long time as they’ve had an easy schedule this year. There maybe a “will game’s result be less that 6 points? -120” which I might just take instead. Can see Mahomes winning on a last second drive, also taking last score for KC at FG +420.
UFC BONUS: Alexander Volkanovski +295
NFL Title Game Sunday
Picks I actually play in BOLD
PHI -3 (EVEN)
Second time this year we get a hedge play with an EVEN juice line…very blessed. We had SF +175 to win the NFC before the playoff so we book profit either way. I do think the Eagles win as I just can’t see a 7th round rookie going into Philly amongst those animals in the stands and a pretty good team and getting the W. These teams are fairly well matched with the only obvious advantages at QB and CB, which may prove the difference. Props I have: Christian McCaffrey OVER receptions 4.5 -106, Dallas Goedert OVER receptions -117, Jalen Hurts AT LEAST 2 RUSH TDs +450, and Brock Purdy OVER INTO 0.5 -170.
CIN +2
The Bengals are just the more complete team. And last week showed you can have OL issues, but if your perimeter and HBs are healthy you can dev a scheme, as long as you have a quick accurate gun at QB, to mask that and even success in the running game as Cincy did because the Bills were having such a hard time defending the back end. Props: Joe Mixon OVER receptions 3.5 +127, Total FGs OVER 3.5 +110, Travis Kelce ANYTIME TD -143, and Andy Reid Timeouts Set on Fire 1.5 -420.
TEASER: CIN +2 and PHI/SF OVER 45 +110
DFS:
NHL BONUS: BOS ML +113
NFL Divisional Sunday
0-2 yesterday, 3-4 so far this playoffs. Back on the wagon, actual bets in BOLD:
Buffalo -5.5
Hardest game to pick this weekend; I’d lean more on Bengals if they weren’t missing 3 OLs. I am taking CIN 1H +3.5 as I do think Burrow, and Josh Allen’s penchant for INTs, keep it close. For props, going Josh Allen Rushing Yards OVER 50.5 -114 and James Cook First TD +1600.
SF -3.5
Pounding and doubling down on San Fran. Also taking OVER 46 as the model I use has this game at 51.5 and it probably should be 48. Taking Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -103, Ezekiel Elliott Carries OVER 10.5 -115, and Mike McCarthy Timeouts Set on Fire OVER 1.5 -420 (kidding but…if this is an actual bet I’d take it).
NFL Divisional Saturday
Anything I bet is in BOLD; 3-2 so far this playoffs
Kansas City -9.5 -110
Trevor’s Lawrence’s turnover-itis comes back to bite him in the ass because he isn’t playing a team called the “Chargers”. I also like Travis Kelce First to Score +500, Jerick McKinnon OVER receptions +112, and receiving yards OVER 36.5 -126, and Trevor Lawrence At least 2 INT +300.
NY Giants +8
How about Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones last week! The most impressive performance and playcalling of the weekend, even better than the 49ers’ second half (which was also pretty good). It seems like the majority of the time in the modern era when teams’ play for a 3rd time, it’s usually a close ballgame. I see the Eagles winning but the Giants’ keeping it close; if the Giants had 1 or more WRs I would like their chances better as they did have a lot of drops last week. Maybe Kenny Golladay (if he’s even active) has a J.D. Drew moment and has the game of his life despite the fact he is the worst FA signing in NY sports history. We get to bet Daniel Jones rushing yards OVER again 48.5 -108; surprised it took the books this long to have this over 40 yards as Daniel Jones is 12-5-1 vs the rushing yards OVER this year. I also like total FG OVER 3.5 +130.
NHL Bonus: EDM at VAN UNDER 7 -104
NFL Wild Card Sunday + Monday
2-0 so far thanks to the Chargers doing Chargery things. Bets placed in BOLD
Buffalo -13.5 (-115)
Miami limped into the playoffs thanks to Buffalo beating a milquetoast Patriots team. They will have a rookie starter who is more of a runner if anything vs a pretty fast Bills front 7. Bills should have an easy time here and will probably get a nice bump as Damar Hamlin maybe at today’s game.
Minnesota -3 +100
Most people went into the playoffs thinking, “Man, I can’t wait to bet against this overrated Vikings team and Kirk Cousins!”. Too bad their first game is against the Giants, who they beat 24-21 back in November in OT despite blowing a 4th quarter lead. The Giants had a good year but mostly took advantage of a weak schedule as well as Daniel Jones finally having a professional coach in Brian Daboll…but this VIkings team has more talent than this Giants team overall… I’d wait until next week for the annual Vikings’ bed shitting. This might be the last time of year I get to bet the Daniel Jones Rushing OVER prop (40.5 -118); it was 11-5-1 during the year.
Baltimore +8.5 -112
The backend of a “back-to-back” game as these teams played in the same place last week. I think Baltimore coaching, guile, the Lamar Jackson drama, and the division aspect of this matchup will keep things close despite backup QBs… however Baltimore’s failure in offense will hurt them in the 4th quarter, where Joe Burrow shines so I do like Bengals to win the game. For props, I like Total Field Goals OVER 3.5 +135 as we have two pretty awesome kickers in this game.
Tampa Bay +2.5 -107
I am actually taking the Tampa Bay ML on this game at +125. Dallas has more talent than this average Tampa team. They SHOULD win… but we all know what is going to happen. They will grab an early lead when this Tampa offense has their usual crappy start and then as we go into the late 3rd and 4th quarter, Dallas will start nitting it up on offense while Mike McCarthy is going to waste timeouts challenging a 2 yard catch on 2nd down while staring at the scoreboard as he ponders what type of nachos he is going to have later. Brady gets the ball back with 2 min and we all know the rest as that is how Tampa has stolen many games this year. For props, I like: Mike Evans ANYTIME TD +200; Dak Prescott OVER INT 0.5 -167; Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards OVER 45.5 -114 and OVER receptions 4.5 +100.
TEASER 6.5 +125: BUF -13.5, CIN -8, TB +2.5
NFL Wild Card Saturday
Play the fun game every year where we try to go undefeated vs the spread. Any thing I actually bet will be in BOLD
San Francisco -9.5 (-110)
Taking the 49ers….like everyone else which scares me. But they are the most balanced team going into the playoffs, the rookie QB has come in and played better than Jimmy G and even Lance, and they play a Seattle team who limped into the playoffs thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ annual Lambeau bed shitting. For props, taking Christian McCaffrey receptions OVER 4.5 +100, and Geno Smith INT OVER 0.5 -164. I am also taking 49ers to win the NFC at +175, as I figure they should make it at least to the NFC title game again providing a hedge opportunity.
Jacksonville +2.5
This is the toughest game to bet all weekend. Both young QBs in Herbert and Lawrence in their first playoff starts. Taking Jacksonville because these teams are close in talent but I think the Chargers coach is a moron and they will probably do Chargery things. I do like Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 -114.
NFL Week 18 + Props
SF -14 (-115)
Arizona gave up on the season a month ago, 49ers still playing for #1 seed.
MIN at CHI OVER 42.5 -110
Backups are playing but these defenses stink
Washington +7 (EVEN)
Hedge for our WAS 8.5 season UNDER as we clinched a chop last week. We like Sam Howell and he starts today vs a Cowboys squad who maybe resting people.
TEASER +135: Bills -8, Browns +2.5, Seahawks -5
Props:
Gus Edwards Rushing Yards OVER 54 -114
Dobbins gets rest today in meaningless game for Ravens
Amari Cooper Receiving Yards OVER 72 -114
Amari needs 80 yards for his personal best for a season, and 67 to beat the single season Browns’ record. From the coaches: “”It means something to me,” Van Pelt (OC) said. “I want to see these guys hit their personal bests. That is important to me. I think it is important to (coach) Kevin (Stefanski).” Well then, means we should bet it!
Isaiah McKenzie Recieiving Yards OVER 46 +108
McKenzie can make an extra $100,000 with 46 yards receiving vs a Patriots team he’s had good success against. He’ll also need 10 more receptions for an additional $100,000, but I doubt he hits that one.
Kalif Raymond Receptions OVER 3 +127
He needs 2 for $125,000 bonus; 2 catches was at -501 so we took 3 to stay away from juice as well as he gets around 2.8 targets over the last 5 games. He also need 100 yards for another $125,000 in a game where they will be playing for potential playoff spot.
Kenneth Walker III Rushing Yards OVER 71.5 -218
He can get over 1,000 rushing yards with 64 against the Rams on Sunday in a game where Seattle will be playing for a playoff spot and figure to feed him the ball.
Geno Smith Passing Yards OVER 232 -304
He’ll net another $250,000 if he throws for 114 or more yards on Sunday. And if the Seahawks win with Packers’ loss, the Seahawks make the playoffs and Geno makes $2 more million! What a season for him!
DFS:
NFL Saturday & Jags Props
KC at Las Vegas OVER 52.5 (-110)
KC will be going for it and Stidham actually looked good last week. Mahomes needs 437 yards to beat Peyton’s all season record; he’s around +550 to do so. The number is high for my blood, but we will be loading up on props in the other game…
I got Jags +300 to win the AFC South back in like October. They play HU for the division tonight vs Tenessee and I am letting it ride as I think Doug Peterson + Lawrence beats this banged up Titans squad starting a 3rd stringer.
Week 18 is always fun because we have what I call the “incentive” props where players need like 1 or 2 catches, a few yards, to hit 6 figure digit bonuses. Always great when one team just calls a standard little pop pass or shovel just to get it out of the way (although these don’t hit as much because often teams will “round up” and take care of the player if they are close).
Props for tonight:
Zay Jones to have at least 4 receptions (-244), Zay Jones OVER Receiving Yards 92 +268
He needs 2 catches to hit $250,000 and he has had at least five catches in last seven games. He is also 98 yards short of a $500k incentive). Both doable against a below avg TEN secondary.
Christian Kirk Receptions OVER 4.5 -167
Christian Kirk is two catches short of a $500,000 incentive and needs 91 yards for another $500,000. I am staying away from the yards prop as Kirk is more of a “slot chain mover” as supposed to Jones being more of a big play WR2.
Evan Engram Receiving Yards OVER 54.5 -121
Engram, who has come on as a top 5 TE1 in fantasy and shows what happens when you get promising players who actually professional coaching, needs 61 receiving yards (739 to 800) to earn $200k. Engram has averaged 71 yards a game in his last 5 versus a Tennessee defense has been horrendous against opposing tight ends all year long.
Week 17 NFL
CHI at DET OVER 52 -110
SF -9.5 -110
TEASER +125: SF -9.5, SEA +2, NY Giants -5.5
Props: Justin Fields Rushing Yards OVER 78.5 -114, Mac Jones INT OVER 0.5 +117, Russell Wilson INT OVER 0.5 -121
Nick Special: Broncos ML +545
DFS:
