Month: November 2011
This and Dap
Want to throw some dap Louis’ way. Back about a month and a half ago Louis proclaimed “Stanford cannot tackle.” He went on to say he would take Oregon whenever the two played. His analysis was spot on. Stanford’s inability to tackle (and Andrew Luck being exposed) was probably the difference in last night’s game. The only reason Louis did not end up putting bills on the bills (duck humor) was because his gf Deepa is a Stanford alum. Great pick.
Follow up dap on that game. A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read. In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU. To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there. Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th. I quote…
“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.” Brilliant.
Boxing. I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite? So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog. Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by. This has to have gambling implications.
I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there. But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league. I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league. 3 picks a week. With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3. How ugly are those picks?
Two Touchy Home Faves Revisited
Talked last week about the half dozen teams in college that were roughly 2 TD home faves, let’s check out how things went down.
- Akron (1-7) 3 @ Miami OH (3-5) 35
- Louisville (4-4) 38 @ West Virginia (6-2) 35
- Duke (3-5) 14 @ Miami FL (4-4) 49
- Vanderbilt (4-4) 21 @ Florida (4-4) 26
- Texas Tech (5-3) 20 @ Texas (5-2) 52
- Texas A&M (5-3) 25 @ Oklahoma (7-1) 41
We had created two groups. Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were teams with clearly better records than their opponent. The second group of teams had very similar records as their opponent, but were much more likely to generate action from the betting public, explaining their large number. Both groups went 2-1 ATS. Conclusion – Nothing to really report. Florida, following a season long pattern, seems particularly overrated. Side Note – Notre Dame didn’t cover as 2 TD road fave.
Two Touchy Home Favorites
We are going to look at a very specific group here, games where the home team is essentially a 2 TD favorite. Everyone is playing opponents from their own conference.
- Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
- Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
- Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
- Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
- Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
- Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)
Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents. Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations. Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public? If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved. As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things. I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.
