Author: pat
Weekend Plays
Not sure how many plays will happen this weekend. ATM (At the moment) only have New Mexico St +17.5 @ Arkansas. New Mexico St is surprisingly competent against the run, which is Arkansas’ preferred attack. I will talk myself into some increasingly sketchy plays throughout the weekend, stay tuned.
UPDATE 1…Sketchy Bet Scale (4/10)
New Mexico St @ Arkansas Under 61.5 -116
This would be an absolutely legitimate, 1 out of 10 on the sketchy bet scale, if it wasn’t for our previous action. Now to hit both bets we need something like 30-21. Hence (4/10). NMSt’s point totals this year are deceptive, both on offense and defense.
UPDATE 2…Sketchy Scale (2.5/10)
Bills +8 -108
Both NM St and the Under would have hit with “Just One Fucking Stop.” JOFS may sound like a sabermetriccy, analytical deally. “The Knicks are hitting under 40% on JOFS for the season.” No. It also sounds like it should be plural. Again, no, it is very much a singular event. JOFS is a favorite of Unders and Underdogs. When Oklahoma St is favored by 47 over UAB, at some point, you are going to need JOFS. We didnt get it yesterday. I really like the Bills here. ALL of the money is going on Atlanta and yet the line has gone down from 9.5 to 8. The only slight drag is we didnt get it at the original spread.
UPDATE 3…Sketch Scale (3/10)
Lions @ Vikings -2.5 -108
Pretty normal bet, except we are not only banking on Case Keenum playing well, but doing it for the second week in a row. Veteran journeymen usually are not the most consistent bunch. They sign a deal, get thrown into action, and pull a couple games of Fitzmagic out of their ass here and there to earn another contract somewhere else. Interesting to view the Lions’ mojo after losing in brutal fashion last week.
NCAAF Plays
No justification for these. When I post some winners then I will wax poetic about how deep my insights are.
Pitt +9.5 -103
Boston Coll +34 +100
Mich/Purd Over 51.5 -105
ODU +28 -106
UNLV +41 -104
Houston -6.5 -114
Arkansas St/SMU Under 73.5 -107
Ball St/WKU Over 51 -107
UL Monroe +6.5 -102
Lord of Nationally Televised Broadcasts
There’s sports handicapping, and then there’s handicapping prime-time, nationally televised games. In the first, the sports world is your buffet, it is up to you to pick out a couple of items from dozens of choices. Based on sheer volume, there are going to be lazy lines, or games where info may be difficult to quantify in an algorithm, or public sentiment, or whatever. Not so much, when there is only one or 2 games going on, though. To anyone (including myself) who pops out an overall record, the subsection should be record in games played when the Eye of Sauron is blasting down full force. So sometimes you let others lead the direct attacks on spreads and money lines, while you sneak around to get in on the action. Temple had the #2 pass D last yr in college football. They lose Reddick to the pros, but bring back a decent amount of talent…
Team Total : USF Under 40 -115
College FB Holiday Plays
Went .500 on Saturday. Couple more plays for holiday weekend…
W Virginia (+5) @ Va Tech (n) WVU has a “havoc-loving” DC as well as 2 very capable safeties, which would seem to spell trouble for opposing teams with an inexperienced QB. Que redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.
Tennessee @ Ga Tech (+3) (n) Ga Tech had more 4 Star recruits this year than in the last 4 or 5 years combined. Positive trajectory. Tennessee meanwhile loses a boatload of talent this year, which should make life difficult for Butch Davis at the onset.
Week 1 NCAAF
Mostly underdogs. I wasnt going to touch the Nevada/Northwestern O/U but it has gone up something like 9 points since it opened.
Bowling Green +17 @ Mich St Spartys in jail
Wyoming +12 @ Iowa Josh Allen introduced to America
California +13 @ UNC Cal’s offense is based on creating one-on-one match-ups. It apparently thrives in some cases but fails miserably when the opposing D has skill players that win individual battles. UNC’s defense is supposed to be improved but we are banking on them still being a lower tier D
Troy +9.5 @ Boise St According to RotoWorld, Troy “houses one of the most prolific offenses in the Group of 5 behind QB Brandon Silvers and RB Jordan Chunn.” RoWo adds the offense has “as much stability as any in the nation.”
Ga Southern @ Auburn -33.5 Auburn’s Nat’l Champ odds have gone from roughly 50:1 to 20:1 in recent weeks
Arkansas St +14.5 @ Nebraska DE Rolland-Jones goes to town as Nebraska’s weak WR corp fails to get open in time
Vandy @ MTSU +3.5 Excellent WR corp wins against Mason’s very capable D.
Nevada @ Northwestern Under 61
College FB Stuff
Over/Unders.
There are some teams to focus on throughout this year.
The Good – OK St (9), Auburn (8.5), Miami FL(9)
AND
The Interesting – ASU (5), Kansas (3), Mich St (6.5), Miss St (5.5), Nebraska (7), Ole Miss (5.5), Oregon St (5.5)
Notice I am posting this after the season has already started for a few teams. I am getting these numbers from a website entitled “Last Minute College Football Team Wins.” This is me screaming at a bunch of horses starting out from the gate “WAIT! COME BACK! DO ANY OF YOU HAVE MEDICAL CONDITIONS?!?!”
The offenses for Oklahoma St and Auburn should be very good. Auburn has Baylor transfer Stidham who many believe will be the difference maker to put Auburn back in the SEC Champ conversation. Miami allowed just 18.5 points per game last season, and they may well be better in 2017…all 8 defenders who recorded at least six TFL and two sacks last season return. Just one bet from this group. Miami FL (over 9)
Did you know there is one team in college football that has had the worst passing D in the country two years in a row? ASU should be in for a lot of shoot-outs, former 5Star QB Blake Barnett transfers in. We are too late to bet on them but a 3 or 4 win season sounds believable, and we will bet accordingly ATS, lot of high scoring, non-covers like last night’s game. I am sure things have improved since, but as of mid May ASU had ZERO recruit commitments for 2018. This looks like a program with a bad trajectory. Speaking of bad trajectories, everybody is getting arrested and/or suspended at Mich St. We will take Mich St (under 6.5)
Kansas @ 3 is insanely tempting. Great DLine stuff, their new OC was co-OC @ TCU during their renaissance. But I think ultimately we are just going to bet them on specific match-ups. They lose a ton of talent in secondary. Bill Connelly notes “massive turnover in the secondary is the strongest predictor of defensive regression.” Nevertheless expect to see Kansas as a pick frequently ATS.
One of the horses I was screaming at is Oregon St, too late to do anything with them but expect them to get better as the year goes on. The “upstart Beavers suddenly have depth at multiple positions” as RotoWorld points out. They lost a bunch of close coin flip games last year, RB Nall could be a beast this year. We will have bets with them moving forward.
Not much insight into Nebraska except they seem quite thin @ WR. This was before Keyshawn Jr was busted for weed. They had a very late decommit who wound up going to Wash St. They also lose a very good, experienced corner Chris Jones due to surgery. Nebraska (under 7)
Who the Hell knows what Ole Miss will do. Shea Patterson should put up great numbers and I would lean towards their over, similar situation with Miss St. Everything you read is positive. New DC is a guy with consistent top20 Defenses in the past when @ Louisville and UGA. A quote regarding their LB Green, “(Green) won’t just take a starting role because of his age, he’s earning it with his play.” Good stuff. Miss St (over 5.5)
Premier League
Point Season Over/Unders. Im going to post these in the order they appear on Pinnacle. What is a bit odd is they have the teams not listed in alphabetical order, or order how they finished last year, or by their respective total lines. They look to have them in the order they expect the teams to finish in the table this year.
Man City 81.5 (over -126)
Man U 79.5 (under -171)
Chelsea 76.5
Tottenham 75.5 (under -159)
Arsenal 70.5 (over -146)
Liverpool 69.5 (over -155)
Everton 57.5
Leicister 49.5 (under -126)
Southampton 54.5
Newcastle 38.5 (over -190)
Crystal Palace 40.5 (over -137)
Stoke City 44.5 (under -140)
West Ham 47.5
Bournemouth 42.5 (over -127)
Swansea 38.5 (under -122)
West Brom 42.5 (under -150)
Burnley 35.5
Watford 37.5 (over -145)
Brighton 34.5 (over -156)
Huddersfield 28.5 (over -152)
Memorial Under
9, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9, 11, 9, 8. I think I got them all. If I was a father I would insert the obligatory “They threw out the 11 from the Ukrainian judge” bad dad joke (BDJ). These are over/unders for today. I can honestly say I have never seen anything like this, not even a 7.5 in the bunch. In order…
First thought, it’s Memorial Day, a lot of folks home with time to gamble. Heavier action than usual, “life’s too short for unders,” jack the lines and exploit.
Second thought, it’s Memorial Day, usually a day off, bullpens will be tired from the weekend, Vegas is accounting for this.
Third thought, see if there is a Memorial Day phenomenon. Last 2 years there were some heavy game totals but 2016 total was 121, 2015 total 124.
Fourth thought, well let’s put in a wager.
Total Runs Scored MLB Under 140.5 +100
Happy Memorial Day. Get better, Tiger. (30-for-30 Title “Struggles on the Backside”)
****UPDATE****
Over gets smushed thanks to our friends in Houston and Toronto. 154 if my math is right. The real lame part is Unders beat Overs 9-6 on the day. But the overs were over the rainbow. Not sure if that tells us anything interesting. Also Update on Tiger blowing a 0.00. Maybe he’s not in so rough shape. BDJ, BOOM!
Lines That Make you Go Hmm
This is a category that has always interested me. Today’s entry…
Yankees vs Royals Under 9 (-118)
Pineda vs Vargas
To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms. Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com). Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected. 1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).
****UPDATE****
18 Total Runs. Over hit before game’s halfway point. Hmm indeed.
