Author: pat
MLB Play
Shelby Miller is a very young, exciting talent for the St Louis Cardinals. Young, exciting pitchers can be often volatile, either tossing gems or getting bombed. They leave the 7 IP 3 ERs allowed lines to old men like Ryan Dempster or Ted Lilly. That is partly why I am taking the run line in this game, thinking Miller could shut the Nationals down completely. See what happens.
St Louis (-1.5) @ +156 @ Washington @ 22
MLB Plays
Cardinals ML -115 @ Phillies @ 22
Indians @ Astros Over 9 -101 @ 22
GM 1 Royals ML +135 @ Red Sox @ 22 (Ervin Santana Game)
Jake Westbrook has a 0.00 ERA but is only 1-1. Kyle Kendrick kinda sucks. The Indians and Astros offenses are both facing batting practice coaches. The Red Sox probably all partied last night.
MLB Plays
Two So Far. I am down 100 Units exactly since 4/1
Over 7.5 -111 San Diego vs San Fran @ 22 Units
Indians ML -110 vs Astros @ 22 Units
Lincecum is awful as is Richard away from home. Betting against the Astros is nothing revolutionary at the moment, but I am getting a good price as I am wagering on a man that has not pitched well in about half a decade. Just be average, Kazmir, that should be plenty.
Baseball Plays
NY Yankees @ Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ +118 for 18 Units
The Yankees are struggling at the moment, let’s ride the wave. And who the fuck is C C Sabathia these days anyway? And we get Verlander.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Over 8 @ -101 for 10 Units
Boston Red Sox ML @ +112 for 17 Units
Both of these bets are based on the premise that Dickey needs to show me something fast. I mean, what?
Do not like anything at all about either the Mets/Marlins or Nats/Reds games.
Update
Also took…Cleveland @ Tampa Bay +1.5 +116 for 18 Units
Arizona DBacks @ Milwaukee Under 7.5 @ -105 for 23 Units
Oakland A’s ML @ -154 for 22 Units
SD Padres @ Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 @ -110 for 28 Units
Live In Bet Update (LIBU)
Interesting scores. My Red Sox and A’s picks prove I am a genius, my Rays and Tigers picks prove I know nothing. Watching the Pads/Rox game where the scoreboard operator was messing with Over fans. After a double play, they left the marker like there was still a man on first. Sure enough, the next guy up gets a hit and now there were men on 1st and 2nd. I felt bad for Chacin, the poor bastard didn’t even know that if he walked the next guy the bases would be loaded. 3-1 currently in the 4th, need to get to 11.
Update
LA Angels ML @ +126 for 33.45 Units
Soccer Play
Redknapp says this game is a must win. To my ill equipped soccer ears that sounds like “aggression.”
THE PICK
Wigan @ QPR Over 2.5 -112 15 Units
As of 4/1/13 = -9.78 Units
LIVE IN BET UPDATE
A hit post, a few saves, and Bobby Zamora unintentionally, but unquestionably, kicking a guy in the head, resulting in a red card, all seem to kill any chances of my bet. The crowd is booing the fouled player on Wigan for having his head recklessly placed on top of his shoulders with no regard for Zamora’s cleats.
NCAA Picks
The entire year, literally the entire damn year, I have thought Michigan has been overrated. And they have consistently proven what a fool I am. Let’s keep it rolling.
THE PICK
Michigan @ Syracuse +1.5 -102 32 Units
SIDE PICK
Michigan @ Syracuse Under 129.5 -108 24 Units
MLB Over/Unders
I had a lost weekend this past weekend and wrote these at some point during it. I was thinking you would have to take me on my word, but seriously, not only do I have the Mets under I have the Padres over. If run differential counted in baseball I am pretty sure the Mets would be in 1st and the Padres in last. Note, I would like to apologize at how skimpy the rationale behind the picks are for me this year, but I will make up for it with increased pick activity during the season. Let’s see what I like.
- #10 Detroit Tigers (Under 92.5) I like Detroit’s rotation, but their closer situation is worrisome to say the least. For those of you who watched the Red Sox on a regular basis last year, you understand how crucial a stopper is.
- #9 San Diego Padres (Over 74.5) So we know that Carlos Quintin will be injured in the process of opening his mail tomorrow. The infield for San Diego is muy bueno.
- #8 Cincinnati Reds (Under 91)
- #7 St Louis Cardinals (Over 86) The Cardinals can pitch, and I am becoming increasingly attuned to how that impacts season O/Us.
- #6 Seattle Mariners (Over 77.5)
- #5 Chicago Cubs (Over 72.5)
- #4 New York Mets (Under 75) Excuse me? 75 wins? This is one of those situations which seems so obviously wrong that it has to be right.
- #3 Kansas City Royals (Over 77.5) When you pop this team on paper, they appear downright legit. And then you put them all in Royal uniforms and the whole thing goes to shit.
- #2 Atlanta Braves (Under 87.5) Read Detroit entry
- #1 Los Angeles Angels (Under 91.5) Again, legit concerns on bullpen.
MLB Over/Under Update
You dickheads have had plenty of time to corrupt this list so let’s update. When last we left, these virgin, untouched lines were as pure as late February snow. They have now, I am assuming, been defiled anally. Let’s see where things stand.
- Atlanta 87.5 (Under -123)
- Arizona 82.5 (Under -120)
- Baltimore 78.5 (Under -121)
- Boston 83 (Under -131)
- Cubs 72.5
- White Sox 81 (Under -139)
- Cincinnati 91 (Under -123)
- Cleveland 77.5 (Over -147)
- Colorado 70.5 (Over -130)
- Detroit 92.5
- Houston 59.5 (Under -124)
- Kansas City 77.5 (Over -148)
- Angels 91.5 (Over -133)
- Miami 63 (Over -162)
- Minnesota 67.5 (Over -149)
- Oakland 84.5
- Philadelphia 84 (Over -132)
- Pittsburgh 77
- San Diego 74.5 (Under -125)
- San Francisco 88
- Seattle 77.5
- St Louis 86
- Tampa Bay 86 (Over -136)
- Texas 86.5 (Over -120)
- Toronto 89
- Washington 92
Thoughts, Observations and Hypothesis
- I cannot see Theo getting less than 73 in his second season. Simply not how he is programmed
- Boston @ 83 seems generous
- Vegas must be slightly dying not being able to post O/U on Yanks or Mets at this moment
- Without looking wasn’t 77.5 the O/U for the Royals last year w/out Shields?
- Is Miami @ 63 the biggest drop-off ever? They were 85.5 by my memory last year
- They have had recent injuries but I like San Diego Over
- Do people get bored betting on O/Us? Do you see how the juice doesn’t exist the further you get alphabetically?
- I would like to bet on San Fran finishing exactly on their number
Lou and I will post our final numbers on this stuff in the next few days
Golf Pick ’em League – WGC
Picked Louis Oosthuizen this week. The bracket he is in looks to be one of the two easier ones. He is a #1 seed and provided he gets there the third round will be the first time he plays someone I have heard of before.
MLB Over/Under Win Totals
Hot off the presses. As ush, any lines with decent juice (120 or more) will be noted. This is the earliest I have ever caught the MLB lines so it will be interesting, if only for me, to watch how these evolve.
Atlanta Braves : 87.5
Arizona Diamondbacks : 82.5 (Under -124)
Baltimore Orioles : 78.5
Boston Red Sox : 83
Chicago Cubs : 72.5
Chicago White Sox : 81
Cincinnati Reds : 91
Cleveland Indians : 77.5
Colorado Rockies : 70.5
Detroit Tigers : 92.5
Houston Astros : 59.5
Kansas City Royals : 77.5
Los Angeles Angels : 91.5
Los Angeles Dodgers : 91.5
Miami Marlins : 63
Milwaukee Brewers : 81
Minnesota Twins : 67.5
New York Mets : 75
New York Yankees : 88
Oakland Athletics : 84.5
Philadelphia Phillies : 84
Pittsburgh Pirates : 77
San Diego Padres : 74.5
San Francisco Giants : 88
Seattle Mariners : 77.5
St Louis Cardinals : 86
Tampa Bay Rays : 86
Texas Rangers : 86.5
Toronto Blue Jays : 89
Washington Nationals : 92
THOUGHTS
- Amazing that 92.5 is the highest number on here at the moment. Has to be the lowest high mark in recent memory.
- Why does it always have to be .5, give one team an over/under at .8 – Spice things up
- You can tell these lines haven’t been perverted yet by people like me. There are hardly any lines with significant juice, that will change over the next couple weeks.
