Tag: Kentucky Derby
Wow, it feels like I should or written this article 5 years ago…..oh right, I should have because then this over hyped fight might actually be good. It would of probably only cost $79 instead of the $99 it does now.
Both guys are way past their primes now, but there are caveats to both. Floyd has lost his power punch (insert Pat Darts’ style highly inappropriate DV joke here); the last two fighters he’s KO’d were Victor Ortiz (who? oh yeah, that guy) and Ricky “Fatton” Hatton. He’s still the best technical fighter of the modern era, maybe ever, and can take a punch as well. Add the fact he is part of one of the greatest boxing family dynasties in the Mayweathers (all crazy as him). He is one of the best ever. But 7 out of his last 9 his fights have ended in a decision, including 5 in a row. I know this because I’ve bet every single one of them.
BUT…..Floyd hasn’t really had a rival during his time though, and that has been a scratch against his career. Enter Manny Pacquiao. A more entertaining fighter, a champion of the Philippines, he burst onto the scene KO’ing people left and right in highly entertaining bouts. He was on a tear going into this potential fight in 2007, before it got derailed by ego and money and Floyd being somewhat of a pussy. Floyd wanted him to do a blood test and Manny got offended…..but years of PED allegations have stuck with Manny especially since NSAC testing standards increased right along the decrease in Pacquiao’s punching power.
These guys were the two best fighters in the world in 2007, and decided to choose ego over the sport. The only winner was the UFC, who has grown six-fold since then.
He still out throws every guy he fights at a 2-to-1 pace…..but it just doesn’t “get there” as much as it used to. His undefeated record was gone with a stunning decision loss to Tim Bradley. Then, he got KO’d in a bout recently against Juan Manuel Marquez (who also got caught using PEDs later on; great integrity in this sport!). Manny’s invincibility has been fading, but not his resolve. He has come back strong winning his last few fights, including a 12 round clinic he put on vs Brandon Rios (we took the over rounds; a bet we made here at Miracle Covers!).
Manny is a better athlete, but Floyd has the better chin and footwork. The fighters essentially cancel each other out, which is why I’m recommending the Fight ending in Decision at -310 and over rounds 11.5 at -265 (this is a great line on a site I found; it was like finding gold in your backyard). The decision line actually started at -365….which means money is coming in on the KO/TKO/Under rounds. I don’t understand why because I think this is free money.
The second line the prudent bettor should be taking is the Pacquiao KO line at +1000. At the books this is at +480…but only b/c that action is coming in heavy on Manny; the volume of bets are on Manny’s side (+180), but the big money is on Floyd (-210). Betting Manny to win in a decision is risky because I don’t trust the judges in Vegas as the MGM is where he lost that controversial decision to Tim Bradley. Plus, if he wants to cement his legacy as being better than Floyd: then I think he has to KO Floyd.
If a surprise happens, it will be either a) a Mayweather decision that he didn’t deserve (this is at -110; my other recommendation), or Manny actually knocking him the fuck out and shocking the world.
I am betting that this will be one of the most boring fights ever and it probably will be because if we know one thing about boxing…..someone watching will always leave disappointed.
Kentucky Derby BONUS:
American Pharoah 17/2