NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks
Eastern Conference
(2) Celtics vs (3) 76ers
On his latest podcast, Bill Simmons tried to say this was the biggest/longest-running rivalry in the NBA, and specifically called it out as bigger than Celtics/Lakers. That may (or may not) be true for Celtics fans, but it’s definitely not true for neutrals like me. I don’t give a shit about the Celtics playing the Sixers. But when the Celtics & Lakers play, I start wearing green a lot more.
Anyway, on to the pick. On paper, this should be the Celtics for sure. Two things going for the 76ers: First, they have (probably) the best player in the series in Joel Embiid. He hasn’t really done it in the playoffs yet, but past performance is not a predictor of future success. If he plays like Joel EMVPiid, the Sixers have a real chance. Second, the Celtics don’t always show up. If the Hawks can beat them twice in 6 games, the Sixers should be able to do at least one better. I’ll say Celtics in 7, but almost any result wouldn’t surprise me.
(5) Knicks vs (8) Heat
Is it the late 90s/early 2000s again? I’m sick of these reboots. I’ll say Knicks in 7, but again I don’t feel very confident.
Western Conference
(1) Nuggets vs (4) Suns
Full disclosure: I’m a Suns fan, and I can’t be fully objective on them from here on out. With that said, I’ll do my best to keep things realistic. These teams met in the second round two years ago, but a lot has changed:
- Jamal Murray is healthy
- Kevin Durant is on the Suns
- All of the Suns’ forwards from 2021 are gone
- Chris Paul is way worse now
You’ll notice that 3 of those 4 are good for the Nuggets or bad for the Suns, so I’m not expecting another sweep. But I do like their chances. If 2021 Playoffs DeAndre Ayton shows up, he does about the best job on Jokic in the league without getting help. Which means Jokic will still put up massive numbers, but 1.) will have to work for them, and 2.) won’t be able to set up his teammates nearly as well. On the other end, I think the Suns have the personnel to heavily exploit Jokic’s defensive liabilities. I think it’ll be a really fun series, and I’ll say Suns in 6.
(3) Kings vs (7) Lakers OR (6) Warriors vs (7) Lakers
If I’m able, I’ll come back and edit this section once we know who’s playing.
NBA Playoffs Round 1 Recap
First, a recap of my picks from last round. Bold means I consider it a win.
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
My pick: Suns in 5 or 6
Actual: Suns in 5
Analysis: I think I was spot on on this. I also think Kawhi staying healthy would’ve mean the Suns winning in 6 instead of 5. Why? Because there are no independent outcomes in sports. Westbrook couldn’t have played as well as he did without having so many opportunities with the ball in his hands.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
My pick: Nuggets in 4 or 5
Actual: Nuggets in 5
Analysis: Again, pretty spot on here. I don’t like this T-Wolves team at all, but at least they didn’t get swept.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
My pick: N/A
Actual: Lakers in 6
Analysis: I got to celebrate the Grizzlies running their mouths before getting absolutely punked out. Good times!
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
My pick: N/A
Actual: TBD
Bonus pick for game 7: LIGHT THE BEAM
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
My pick: Bucks in 4, 5, or 6
Actual: Heat in 5
Analysis: Way off! Obviously I didn’t foresee Giannis getting hurt, but even considering the injury, I’m still surprised they lost in 5. Credit to Miami on this one. Side note of whining: Where the hell was that 10-23 free throw performance in the Finals 2 years ago?!?
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
My pick: Celtics in 4 or 5
Actual: Celtics in 6
Analysis: I got the winner right, but the Hawks’ 2nd win suprised me. I was at Game 1 of this series, and it was one of the biggest disparities I’ve ever seen in person. Like I said in my preview, this Celtics team is way too inconsistent. On paper, they should be a heavy title favorite with the Bucks out, but I don’t fully believe in them.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
My pick: 76ers in 5
Actual: 76ers in 4
Analysis: Off by 1 game, but no surprises here.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
My pick: Go Knicks!
Actual: Go Knicks!
NBA Playoffs
I can’t be bothered to bet any of these, but I wanted to get my thoughts and picks on the record, so we can see how terrible they wind up after the fact. I did make a good-faith attempt to look up the series odds, but couldn’t easily find them without signing up for a bunch of BS. Anyway, here we go:
Western Conference
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
This is the series I am the best informed about, since I’ve watched most of the Suns games post-KD trade. First, my general thoughts on the Suns: This Suns team definitely has flaws, but they also have some significant strengths. I’ll take their “best game” over anyone’s except Milwaukee. With that said, +480 odds for the title are too short IMO. If you could guarantee me they have no injuries in the playoffs, I might like those odds. But both Durant and Paul are high-risk in that area, and Booker has a history of lingering hamstring injuries – including in last year’s playoffs.
Injuries aside, the Suns are good enough to beat anyone, but not so good that any series should be considered a lock. I think they dodged a serious bullet with Playoff P being out for the whole first round. Zubac has consistently matched up very well with Ayton, even when Ayton’s playing well. And Ty Lue tends to get the better of the coaching matchups. With Paul George, I’d consider this series a toss-up. Without him, the pick is Suns in 5 or 6.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
I’m one of the skeptics who won’t believe in this Nuggets team till they prove me wrong, but it’s hard fto imagine them losing to any of the Pelicans/T-Wolves/Thunder. So my pick is Nuggets in 4 or 5.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
No pick here – this is a complete toss-up for me depending on which Grizzlies team shows up AND which Lakers team shows up. I don’t particularly like this Grizzlies team, but I’m also a certified Laker Hater, so either way, I get to celebrate someone losing.
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
I can’t make a pick here, either, but I’m going to try to watch most of these games. The Kings looked legitimately very good this year, but it’s hard to go against the defending champs just as they’re getting the band back together. Very curious to see how this plays out, and I’ll be rooting for the Kings in solidarity.
Eastern Conference
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
I don’t think the opponent matters here; this is a Bucks win all the way. I could see the Bucks getting bored and dropping a game or 2, so I wouldn’t bet the sweep. But even if Giannis gets hurt in Game 1, I still think the Bucks advance. Bucks in 4, 5, or 6.
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
The Celtics are way too inconsistent for a team this good, and I worry about Tatum’s decision making in crunch time. (Last year, he sometimes looked more concerned with trying to force a Jordan/Kobe hero-ball highlight than just getting a good shot. Not sure if that’s something he’s gotten better at.) But it would be a shock if this mid Hawks team got to 3 wins. Celtics in 4 or 5.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
This is another series I’ll try to watch most of – I’ll be rooting for my boys Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson (aka The Twins). Still love them both, and wish them the best. But do they have a chance against one of the championship contenders? On paper I’d say no, but there’s always the possibility of Harden doing a full-on flameout. I’ll say 76ers in 5, but more of a guess than a pick.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
Go Knicks! I haven’t watch a single game from either team all year, so I can’t pretend to know anything about this series.
Over/Under # of Over/Under Picks (.5)
And the winner is under…I simply do not love anything this year. But Ill be around…
March Madness Friday
VCU ML +160
Iona vs UCONN OVER 141.5 -110
Arizona St +5 -110
PARLAY +602: Purdue ML -10000, Gonzaga -15.5, Marquette -10, Iona/UCONN OVER 141.5
March Madness Thursday
Probably will have more during today on the Twitter feed as I’ll be at Encore Sportsbook
Missouri ML +105
Penn St vs Texas A&M UNDER 134.5 -110
West Virginia -2.5 -110
TEASER 4 PT -120: Kansas -22, Alabama -24, Furman +6
MLB Over/Unders
A positive year overall on these in ’22. The Yankees under pick was about as bad as it gets, but the AL Central stuff we played came through. Key to the rationale on the Central bets last year was the idea that the White Sox were being seemingly (some would say substantially) overvalued, especially relative to their division rivals. Heading into ’23, preliminary research overwhelmingly and repeatedly wants to lead us down a somewhat similar path. This time, it is the Dodgers looking vulnerable…Buehler out until very late, Lux the entire season. Do Tyler Anderson and Gonsolin have real chances of repeating LYs results? Signing JD Martinez as a DH? Chris Taylor’s ’22? JASON HEYWARD?? BUT, before we start chucking bets around, below, you can see 2 things on the NL West…the Dodgers Under has big juice, while simultaneously, most of their NL West mates have juice on their Over. In other words, folks seem very hip to this sitch.
It was largely assumed last year the CWS would ultimately control a division loaded with crappy franchises. Like LA this year, Chicago had flaws in ’22, but they were subtle enough to miss, or easily ignored given the accepted weakness of their division. The NL West is not giving us a similar narrative gift this Spring Training. The potential Dodger issues are relatively glaring, and teams like the Padres, Giants and D-backs are seen as capable of exploiting them. Indeed, the Dodgers Under may get action from us, but as a loose rule, its really difficult to like “loud” bets, and this is about as loud as these type of bets get. At any rate, we will see how the next few weeks shake-out. Ideally we will land on some plays that are quietly sitting in a corner with their head down. Here are where things stand…heavy juice noted.
ARIZ : 74.5 (O -150)
ATL : 95.5
BALT : 76.5 (O -150)
BOS : 77.5 (O -140)
CHC : 77.5 (O -140)
CWS : 83.5 (U -160)
CIN : 65.5
CLE : 86.5
COL : 65.5
DET : 69.5
HOU : 96.5
KC : 69.5
LAA : 81.5
LAD : 97.5 (U -145)
MIA : 75.5
MIL : 85.5
MINN : 83.5
NYM : 94.5
NYY : 94.5
OAK : 59.5
PHI : 89.5 (U -140)
PITT : 66.5
SD : 93.5 (O -140)
SEA : 87.5
SFG : 80.5 (O -140)
StL : 88.5
TB : 88.5
TEX : 82.5
TOR : 92.5
WAS : 59.5
Super Bowl LVII Props and Pick
Anytime TD: Hurts -130, Scott +450, Kelce -150, Pacheco +125
First TD: Miles Sanders +850, Goedert +1000, Skyy Moore +3500; Kadarius Toney +1500
Rec Yards: Pacheco OVER 18.5 -114, Goedert OVER 51.5 -114
Receptions: Pacheco OVER 3 +120
Mahomes: Over Pass Att 39.5 -121
Hurts: Rush Attempts OVER 11 -130
First Offensive Play Of Game Is A Pass – Yes +115
Result of First Coaches Challenge – Play Stands +105
The OCHOCINCO SPECIAL: Total Punts Over 6.5 -114
Pick:
Chiefs +1.5
This is a tough game to call; I choose the better QB over the better overall team but this is Philly’s first test in a long time as they’ve had an easy schedule this year. There maybe a “will game’s result be less that 6 points? -120” which I might just take instead. Can see Mahomes winning on a last second drive, also taking last score for KC at FG +420.
UFC BONUS: Alexander Volkanovski +295
NFL Title Game Sunday
Picks I actually play in BOLD
PHI -3 (EVEN)
Second time this year we get a hedge play with an EVEN juice line…very blessed. We had SF +175 to win the NFC before the playoff so we book profit either way. I do think the Eagles win as I just can’t see a 7th round rookie going into Philly amongst those animals in the stands and a pretty good team and getting the W. These teams are fairly well matched with the only obvious advantages at QB and CB, which may prove the difference. Props I have: Christian McCaffrey OVER receptions 4.5 -106, Dallas Goedert OVER receptions -117, Jalen Hurts AT LEAST 2 RUSH TDs +450, and Brock Purdy OVER INTO 0.5 -170.
CIN +2
The Bengals are just the more complete team. And last week showed you can have OL issues, but if your perimeter and HBs are healthy you can dev a scheme, as long as you have a quick accurate gun at QB, to mask that and even success in the running game as Cincy did because the Bills were having such a hard time defending the back end. Props: Joe Mixon OVER receptions 3.5 +127, Total FGs OVER 3.5 +110, Travis Kelce ANYTIME TD -143, and Andy Reid Timeouts Set on Fire 1.5 -420.
TEASER: CIN +2 and PHI/SF OVER 45 +110
DFS:
NHL BONUS: BOS ML +113
NFL Divisional Sunday
0-2 yesterday, 3-4 so far this playoffs. Back on the wagon, actual bets in BOLD:
Buffalo -5.5
Hardest game to pick this weekend; I’d lean more on Bengals if they weren’t missing 3 OLs. I am taking CIN 1H +3.5 as I do think Burrow, and Josh Allen’s penchant for INTs, keep it close. For props, going Josh Allen Rushing Yards OVER 50.5 -114 and James Cook First TD +1600.
SF -3.5
Pounding and doubling down on San Fran. Also taking OVER 46 as the model I use has this game at 51.5 and it probably should be 48. Taking Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 -103, Ezekiel Elliott Carries OVER 10.5 -115, and Mike McCarthy Timeouts Set on Fire OVER 1.5 -420 (kidding but…if this is an actual bet I’d take it).
