Good day yesterday, let’s see if we can keep it rolling. I’ll update with any last second action.
Ravens/Raiders Over 40 -105
The Ravens are due for some positivity on offense, and the Raiders’ secondary is just mediocre enough that I think Flacco will have a good day. EJ Manuel was actually moving the team a bit after Carr went down.
Seattle vs LA Rams Under 48 (-110)
This game was 9-6 last year. The LA heat effects the cardio of the game, methinks as well
Buffalo +3 (-120)
How is Cincinnati favored over anybody right now?
How is E.J. Manuel favored over anybody right now?
Steelers vs Jags Over 42.5
Big Ben plays better at home, and the Jags have given up big run plays this year. Add in Bortles junk stats when they are down 21 in the 4th.
Lando Vannata vs Bobby Green – Will Fight GO the Distance? – No @ +125
Derrick Lewis +215
Tony Ferguson Wins by Submission +250
Air Force vs Navy Under 51 (-105)
How about Sean going 3-0 on picks Last Week! How about Lou well above .500 on his Hilton picks! How about me still trying! Let’s make some bets
WKU @ UTEP +17.5 -110
Did you know W Kentucky led the NCAA in scoring last year? They lost multiple impact skill position type guys and have not come close to matching their output. UTEP has a groundcentric attack. They have a guard Will Hernandez who is OBIN (One of the Best In the Nation). UTEP controls the clock, keeps WKU’s not so high-flying attack in check, and maybe even pulls out the win outright. Or they lose by 35.
Iowa St +31 -106 @ Oklahoma
Iowa St has a bunch of tall, athletic WRs. Eaton and Lazard are the best of the bunch. In my team notes for Oklahoma I have this entry for April 15th…”Thru transfers, grad, suspensions, injuries CB sitch thinnish. *UPDATE* Lost a S (KOT), 2ndary takes another hit.” I am too lazy to go back and see what the Hell “KOT” means…I mean, it sure sounds bad. They also lost a CB named Parker (who started 8 games LY) for the season in the 1st week. All of this hopefully translates to Iowa St putting up at least 21 points.
Fresno St @ San Jose St +17 -105
Can’t remember who it was but there was a decent team a few years ago who was getting way too much love from the public and their spreads were inflated in borderline Patriot fashion. If they were favored by 12, the tagline would be, “I don’t care who they’re playing, they shouldn’t be 12 pt faves over anybody.” The easy bet for a few weeks was to fade them against the spread not because they weren’t good, but because they weren’t that good. San Jose St is awful, but Fresno St is no peach themselves. This is strictly, 100%, a bet against Fresno St, who I believe isn’t 17 points better than just about anyone, a theory San Jose St is going to really test.
Picking the entire week on Thursday is difficult, as is this week’s entire schedule.
Last Week: 2-3-0
Season: 14-6-0, 4-0
To be honest, a real crappy week of games. I don’t really love anything (still gonna bet though #degen). Although I refuse to bet on Jags vs Jets….that’s when you know you have a serious gambling problem.
I couldn’t even find a 3 team teaser this week, the games are that shitty!
Philadelphia +1 (-105)
The Chargers might kind of stink. Philips Rivers is starting to get tilty. Both of these teams will try and lose the game. It should be fun.
Steelers at Ravens Under 42 (-110)
Both teams are coming off a loss vs shitty teams last week. Both teams hate each other in the NFL’s most physical rivalry. The Over/Under for personal fouls set at 1.5. This should be a rock fight.
New England vs Carolina Over 49 (-110)
New England’s combination of great offense (avg 33 points per game) and worst defense (on pace to break the all time record for yards allowed in a season) has enabled them to be 3-0-1 vs the Over so far this year. Carolina’s offense is struggling and will try to run the ball but I even think they’ll have success enough to score 17-20 points.
Winnipeg ML +150
Not sure how many plays will happen this weekend. ATM (At the moment) only have New Mexico St +17.5 @ Arkansas. New Mexico St is surprisingly competent against the run, which is Arkansas’ preferred attack. I will talk myself into some increasingly sketchy plays throughout the weekend, stay tuned.
UPDATE 1…Sketchy Bet Scale (4/10)
New Mexico St @ Arkansas Under 61.5 -116
This would be an absolutely legitimate, 1 out of 10 on the sketchy bet scale, if it wasn’t for our previous action. Now to hit both bets we need something like 30-21. Hence (4/10). NMSt’s point totals this year are deceptive, both on offense and defense.
UPDATE 2…Sketchy Scale (2.5/10)
Bills +8 -108
Both NM St and the Under would have hit with “Just One Fucking Stop.” JOFS may sound like a sabermetriccy, analytical deally. “The Knicks are hitting under 40% on JOFS for the season.” No. It also sounds like it should be plural. Again, no, it is very much a singular event. JOFS is a favorite of Unders and Underdogs. When Oklahoma St is favored by 47 over UAB, at some point, you are going to need JOFS. We didnt get it yesterday. I really like the Bills here. ALL of the money is going on Atlanta and yet the line has gone down from 9.5 to 8. The only slight drag is we didnt get it at the original spread.
UPDATE 3…Sketch Scale (3/10)
Lions @ Vikings -2.5 -108
Pretty normal bet, except we are not only banking on Case Keenum playing well, but doing it for the second week in a row. Veteran journeymen usually are not the most consistent bunch. They sign a deal, get thrown into action, and pull a couple games of Fitzmagic out of their ass here and there to earn another contract somewhere else. Interesting to view the Lions’ mojo after losing in brutal fashion last week.
Season: 12-3-0, 3-0
7 home dogs this week!
Buffalo ML +150
I have folks in my stream loving the +3…..but Denver is a bit over rated in my view after getting two weeks of home cooking. Buffalo is quietly has started as one of the best defenses in the NFL. Trevor Siemian due to go back down to earth here and I think its more of a coin flip game than people realize. Also West Coast team playing a 1pm start.
Chicago +8 (-120)
Our rule: if Big Ben and the Steelers are more than 7 point favs in any game, its +EV to take the other team. Chicago coming off an ass kicking, both injury and score wise, in Week 2 vs Tampa….. but they are 1-0 ATS at home so far this year and I can see the Steelers fucking up on special teams or get a bout of the “3 and outs” for a quarter or two and keeping the inferior Bears hanging around.
Texans vs Patriots Over 44.5
I know the Texans’ offense stinks, but they will find plays versus Belichick’s soft zones which are designed to keep Watson in the pocket and prevent the big play. Patriots maybe banged up but they will always find a way to score 30+ at home, like they did in the playoff game last year. Also count on a Houston special teams fuckup in Foxboro, they do it every year.
Atlanta vs Detroit Under 51
Did you know the under has hit in 70% of the games so far this year? And that *3* teams have *0* fucking touchdowns? I expect this game to be a close affair between two teams who may see each other in the playoffs. Atlanta’s offense is different on the road than they are at home.
Bellator MMA Bonus:
Larkin vs Daley Under 2.5 Rounds -115
These two motherfuckers hate each other. This fight wont be about just getting a “w”.
No justification for these. When I post some winners then I will wax poetic about how deep my insights are.
Pitt +9.5 -103
Boston Coll +34 +100
Mich/Purd Over 51.5 -105
ODU +28 -106
UNLV +41 -104
Houston -6.5 -114
Arkansas St/SMU Under 73.5 -107
Ball St/WKU Over 51 -107
UL Monroe +6.5 -102