Wild Card Weekend Pt 1
Won’t bet every spread/game, but we’ll try to go perfect against the spread and see how we do. All of our actual bets will have a * next to them (like props);
Cleveland -2 -115
This is the toughest game to handicap this weekend. Cleveland better defense and running game, but I think Houston has better WRs/QB and Coach. I will say I hope Flacco makes a run and totally makes the Deshaun Watson situation look worse by the game. Props I like: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD +160*, David Njoku Anytime TD +150*, C.J. Stroud Pass Completions OVER 23 +102*.
Miami +5 -110
We’ve been giddy to bet the Dolphins in the playoffs all year as they have yet to beat anyone good this year… but the banged up Dolphins draw the KC Chiefs, who have been experts at keeping teams close in games this year (mostly due to their WRs dropping the ball), especially in the 2nd half at home (2H UNDERs are 7-1 in KC this year). I do like the UNDER at 44.5* (now at 43) as it’s going to be cold af in KC with wind chill and all of that; it feels like this was the first year KC UNDERs hit at home more than OVER since the Alex Smith era. If you really like Miami this game, take the running game OVER props and they will need to run the ball well to win. Props: Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards*, Devon Achane Rushing yards OVER 18 -110*, Tyreek Hill ANYTIME TD +129*, Patrick Mahomes INT OVER 0.5 -108*. The Tua INT OVER looks good too, but -136 is too high especially since Miami may run the shit out of the ball in this game.
Week 18 NFL
NY Jets at New England UNDER 33 -115
Now at 29.5, the lowest since 1993. Apparently, sickness going around in NE locker room. Snow/rain mix today in NE, along with two shitty offenses. Unsure if they win one for Bill’s last game against the hated Jets.
Cleveland at Cincinnati UNDER 37.5 -110
Cleveland playing all their backups today. These two teams will run the ball and try to get out of dodge in under 2.5 hours.
Atlanta +3.5 -115
Now at +3. Should be a close game as it always is in this darby.
Tennessee +3.5 -125
Now at +3. Jacksonville, with backup B most likely, needs win for playoffs. I can see them fucking this up. Also could be Vrabel’s last game in Nashville.
Chicago at Green Bay OVER 44.5
Now at 45.5. Both QBs playing well, defenses are meh, and Chicago motivated to knock GB out of playoffs.
PROPS: It’s incentive week! Some of these aren’t posted yet and only do so a half hour before game.Although starting off taking our prop we always do in December: Derrick Henry TDs OVER 0.5 -112.
DeAndre Hopkins Receptions OVER 7 +102 and Receiving Yards OVER 67 -102
He needs 7 catches and 49 yards for a $250k/$1m bonus. There is also a 100 yards + OVER 6 catch parlay for +219.
Baker Mayfield completions OVER 19.5 -124
Needs high passer rating to hit a bonus. Also against shitty Carolina defense in a game they need to win.
Josh Reynolds TDs OVER 0.5 +260
He needs one for a $250k bonus.
Leonard Floyd Sacks OVER 0.5 +124
Needs at least 1 for bonus, and 3 for $2m bonus.
TEASER +165: ATL +3.5, TEN +3.5, ATL/NO UNDER 42, MIA +3
DFS:
Week 17 NFL
Las Vegas +4 -110
Riding the Raiders… they’ve been competitive under the new coach
Philadelphia -13 -18
Eagles are struggling (in Joe Namath voice) but they should dust this team.
Bengals at Chiefs UNDER 46.5 -110
Weird how Chiefs HOME UNDERS have been crushing it this year
PARLAY +301
BUF ML -1100, SF ML -1200, BAL ML -170, PHI ML -750, LV +4
TEASER +150: CAR +4, LV +4, KC -7
PROPS: CHI/ATL TOTAL FG OVER 3.5 -105; Derrick Henry TD OVER 0.5 -143
DFS:
Week 16 NFL
Detroit -2.5 -115
Las Vegas +10.5 -115
Arizona at Chicago OVER 42.5 -110
TEASER +150: HOU +2.5, DEN -6.5, IND +1.5
PROPS: Derrick Henry TDs OVER 0.5 -126; Alec Pierce Receptions OVER 4 +125; Sam Howell Rushing Yards OVER 14.5 -110; Justin Fields Rushing Yards OVER 69 +116; Devon Achane Rushing Yards OVER 46 -115
DFS:
Week 15 NFL
Cleveland -2.5 (-120)
It’s 2023, and I am betting on a Joe Flacco-led team.
Jets at Dolphins OVER 36.5
Was at 40. Hopefully Zach Wilson throws some TAINTs
Tennessee -3 (-115)
Everybody is out for Houston.
TEASER +150: KC -8.5, DAL +2, NO -5.5
Props: Sam Howell Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 -122; Patrick Mahomes INT OVER 0.5 +100; Deebo Samuel TDs OVER 0.5 -112
DFS:
Week 15 NFL
NY Jets +6.5 (-110)
Now at -3.5. Houston is a good young team but they just lost rookie WR sensation Tank Dell and they go on the road vs a Jets team with a generationally great defense but also with a generationally crappy offense. This team is built to lose games 13-8.
Denver ML +125
Defacto home game in LA versus a Chargers team whose head coach is still somehow employed.
SEA at SF OVER 46.5 (-105)
If Purdy/Deebo/CMac/Kittle stay healthy, they should win the Super Bowl.
TEN at MIA OVER 46.5
Miami averages 38.8 point per game at home, and Derrick Henry is usually good for a TD or 2 in December games.
PROPS: Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 +125; Jared Goff INT OVER 0.5 +120; Latavius Murray TD OVER 0.5 +550
TEASER +150: BAL -7, TB +2.5, DEN +3
DFS:
Week 13 NFL
LA Chargers at New England UNDER 40.5 (-110)
Now at 39. One franchise hitting lows it hasn’t seen since the late 80s/early 90s; the other under achieving with amazing talent like it has the last 40 years of its existence.
Miami at Washington OVER 50 (-105)
Should be points in this one, and should be a fun game.
Green Bay +6 -115
Feels like it should be 4.5
PARLAY +385: MIA ML -450, MIA/WSH OVER 50, PIT ML -285, TB ML -185
TEASER +150: PIT -6.5, PHI +2.5, NYJ +2.5
DFS:
Week 12 NFL
Baltimore -3 -110
Ravens just lost Mark Andrews for the year, but they have a Chargers team with a QB playing with one hand, their best pass rusher out for the year, and the coach blaming the media for his shitty defensive play calling.
NY Giants +3.5 -105
Now at 4. Someone wins this shitty game 17-16 or something stupid.
Tampa Bay ML +125
Getting odds in a coin-flip game.
Jacksonville at Houston OVER 48.5 -105
Two actual good young QBs with two awesome young WR cores going at it.
TEASER +150: LA Rams -1, TB +2.5, NO +1
PROPS: Alvin Kamara Receptions OVER 4.5 -124, Russell Wilson INT OVER 0.5 +125, Dorian Thompson-Robinson Rushing Yards OVER 20.5 -109
DFS:
NFL Thanksgiving
Green Bay +8 -110
SF at SEA OVER 43.5 -110
Props: Sam LaPorta ANYTIME TD +150, Sam Howell Rushing Yards OVER 15.5 +110
Week 11 NFL + Coupe de Grey CFL
NY Giants +9.5 (EVEN)
Devito! Howell! Now at 9 points… Washington isn’t 7 points, nevermind 9-10, over anybody; they barely beat a shitty Patriots team a few weeks ago.
Miami -14 (-110)
The Raiders have had a nice bump since Antonio Pierce took over, but that ends today on the road vs a Dolphins team, coming off a bye, who have been experts at beating crappy competition. I am also taking Miami Team Total OVER 30.5 -150.
PIT at CLE UNDER 36 -110
This got to 32, and has settled at 34.5… nearing Iowa/Military colleges territory.
PARLAY +150: NYG +9.5, DAL ML -525, MIA ML -900, SF ML -525
TEASER +135: JAX -6.5, BUF -1, MIN +2
PROPS: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Rushing Yards OVER 23.5 -117; David Montgomery First TD +500; Christian McCaffrey Receptions OVER 4.5 +120
DFS:
