Gennady Golovkin -699
Gary O’Sullivan -3448
South Carolina -1 -115
Coach Frank Martin is 4-0 ATS in the first round, and only 27% of the money is on the Gamecocks.
VA Tech/Wisconsin Under 138 (-105)
Wisconsin is famous for keeping games in the 60s.
Vermont +9 -105
Vermont was undefeated in conference play, and Purdue is coming off a loss to lowly Nebraska in the Big Ten tourny. I think this will be closer than people think.
Wichita State -6 (-105)
Their seed (10) is lower than their KENPOM rating (8). One could argue this line should be higher.
Notre Dame -6 and Over 135, Michigan St +2, Wichita State -6, VA Tech +5.5,
Keep an eye out on my twitter feed as I will be adding more degeneracy throughout the day.
NC Central -3.5 (-105)
USC/Providence Over 142 (-105)
And both of these in a 4 point teaser (EVEN)
One of my favorite days to gamble: I have no idea about these teams yet I am batting something like .750 betting on these coinflip playin games that happen on opening Tuesday.
Here’s what I like:
Mount St. Mary’s ML +105
PARLAY @ +375: Mount St. Mary’s ML +105 and Under in Wake Forest/Kansas St 148
UFC Fight Night Brazil:
“Will There Be a Draw on the Card? – Yes” @ +1000
Over Total KO/TKO’s on Card 4.5 @ -120
Joe Soto +160
PARLAY @ +378: Sergio Moraes -230, Trinaldo +150, Paulo Henrique Costa -300
UPenn +7.5 and in TEASER with Under 128 (vs Princeton)
Evans wins by 3 Round Decision +160
Hunt vs Overeem Over Rounds 1.5 -120
PARLAY @ +195:
Lando Vannata -350 and Tyron Woodley +115
Parlay at +155:
Mitrione (-135) & Josh Thompson (-210)
Oli Thompson +210
Derrick Lewis -115
Parlay at +205:
Anderson Silva +120
Randy Brown -145
Wilson Reis -600
Ronaldo Souza -550
The Big Game is here! The only thing more fun than betting on the line is betting on the props! Here are some of mine, categorized:
Will a player be seen kneeling during the national anthem for either team? No @ -500
This is at -700 now and it’s a bit high, but I am 99% sure that no one on either side will pull a Kaepernick for this year’s Super Bowl. We’re only 2 weeks into Trump’s term and while there’s been a lot of awful, crazy shit…..it hasn’t gotten to the point where athletes really start to stick it to him. No player has kneeled all year for either team, a few Patriots players rose their fists earlier in the year (Martellus Bennett might do it in this game; he also said he probably won’t go to the White House if the Pats win), and the Falcons decided to “hold hands” as their show of protest in unity in a game vs the Saints in Week 3. Falcons wideout Mohamed Sanu, who is Muslim, even told the press during Media Day he was “here to talk about football” when asked about the ban. I don’t think any player would want to show up their coach/team on the biggest game of the year, especially when one team is coached by a former assistant at the Naval Academy who Trump said gave him a kiss on the cheek.
Under 117.5 Million Viewers -150
Last year’s Super Bowl’s ratings was 1 point worse than last, and the record was set two years ago at 114.4. Atlanta is a historically weak TV market, everyone is sick of the Pats being in there, and this has been a historically boring ass NFL playoffs and ratings are down for the NFL YOY in whole.
First offensive Play – Pass -115
These teams’ always like to start out with an easy throw to get the QB’s in rhythm early.
How many times will “Gronk” or “Gronkowski” be said on TV during live broadcast Under 3 -120
This line should be 2.
The Side Dishes:
Dion Lewis Over Receptions 2.5 -115
LeGarrette Blount Over Receptions 0.5 +130
I see all of the Pats’ RBs getting some easy dump off looks vs a young and over aggressive LB core for Atlanta.
Tom Brady Over Completions 25.5 -105
Brady will find people open vs an average at best ATL secondary.
Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Over 54.5 -105
The Pats’ run defense is strong but I think Belichick plays the safeties back and gives Atlanta the inside run to contain big plays and have Atlanda get yards in between the 30s, and do what NE does best: defend the red zone.
First TD Scorer:
Matt Ryan +10000
Chris Hogan +900
LeGarrette Blount +700
Anytime Touchdown Scorer:
Tevin Coleman -125
Devonta Freeman -125
When betting MVP, you basically start at the QBs and then go out and bet the thing like a roulette wheel. The QBs win MVP 40% of the time.
Tom Brady +140
Matt Ryan +225
The next tier are offensive players you might feel has a good matchup for the game. I think considering Atlanta’s lackluster run defense, LeGarrette Blount could have a change to have a big game. It’s also a great hedge against the various passing props I have. SI’s Greg Bedard also thinks this could be a good game for Blount.
LeGarrette Blount +1600.
The wild cards are usually defensive players; last year’s was Von Miller who went from 50-1 to 16-1 before gametime, and ended up winning the MVP. I would take Vic Beasley here, but his price jumped up too much that I instead went CB for New England as both guys below are either free agents or have 1 year left on their deal, and could win the “Larry Brown Award” for overrated CB play in a Super Bowl thanks to a few INTs.
Logan Ryan +10000
Malcolm Butler +6600
The Super Bowl “Who is That?” Prop Bet of the Year (cue drumroll):
James Develin Total Receptions Over 0.5 +130
I also like Patrick DiMarco Over Receptions +250.
The Big Game:
New England -3 (-105)
Bill Belichick is 22-3 vs a coach he’s faced the first time. The #1 scoring defense (Patriots) have beaten the #1 scoring offense (Falcons) 6 out of the last 7 times they have faced. Only 3 out of the last 20 Super Bowl participants who have come into the game the #1 scoring leader has won this game (Rams 1999, Saints 2009, 49ers 1989). I just think the Patriots are a more balanced team and Atlanta is a bit too top heavy, and this is highlighted by the fact all world center Alex Mack will be having a tough go of it with a fibula injury. He makes all the calls for the Falcons line, so his health is important in their success. I think Brady, with his aging, sick mom on his mind and revenge from the NFL’s bullshit he has had to put up with over the last year, will have a great game vs a milquetoast Atlanta defense, who will have to have the game of their lives to stop the Patriots’ offense. Atlanta will move the ball, but I just see them 7-10 points behind and I also like the Patriots in a teaser with the Over (58.5). I do think things will start slow, and the under 1Q at 13.5 (-110) I am taking as well. Cousin Sal likes the “team to score in the last two minutes of the 1st Half – Yes…..but it’s at -300 and that’s a bit too much for me (but a good bet methinks). Another factor: the Patriots will have more fans at the game this Sunday, and the game is on grass which will slow Atlanta down a little bit…..and I think that creates a hidden home field advantage for the Pats.
The line staying at 3 has been curious, and many sharps have been buying it down to -2.5 -125. I think between the fact the Pats, if they win, will be tied for the best record vs the spread all time (the 1989 49ers were 16-3 vs the spread; I consider that the best team of all time) and the Falcons having a 150-1 NFL Title preseason prop, the books are caught between a rock and a hard place and can’t give the Patriots too many points especially against an Atlanta team capable of getting a miracle cover. Also, every Patriots Super Bowl has finished under 3 points.
Good luck on Sunday!
The theme of this year is how bad, some even say historically, the NFL was this year. As we said in our last podcast: it was more “bottom heavy” than “top heavy”. All 4 teams left, you could argue, really got here not because they are these great teams; all 4 have serious flaws. But they got here because they most likely had the easiest path of resistance on the path to the Super Bowl, especially in the last 6 games. However, since all of these teams have had easy roads, its hard to pick out who is the “sneaky” good team that maybe didn’t have a 14-2 record but who competed against the league’s top tier better than most. Historically, these teams who get deep into the playoffs with shitty schedules, don’t do well, as shown in this article.
The Patriots, the AFC’s #1 seed, had the 6th worst schedule in the modern era. Pittsburgh’s last 6 opponents this year were 14 games UNDER .500, batting at a .433 clip. Atlanta’s NFC South was absolute dogshit this year with the other 3 teams having a 22-25 record, and Aaron Rodgers carved up some incredibly scoring challenged teams in the NFC North (combined record 20-28) at the end of this year for his historical run he’s on (25 TD, 1 INT in his last 9 games). Usually, teams who get to this point thanks more to the lack of strength of the opponent rather than their own, it usually bites them in the ass in the end. This is why the 2015 Broncos, in retrospect, were so over looked: yes, their offense barely skated by, but their defense’s prowess vs some of the best teams of the league were (and should of been, for yours truly) an indicator of the fact they were the best team at the end of the year because they were BEATING the best teams (and not the Panthers, who we found out were basically a bunch of 15-1 front runners vs a soft NFC South and a weak NFC last year).
What does this mean? Two things:
A) In the years coming, unless the league does something stupid like extend the schedule by 2 games, or the playoff spot by one game (which changes these bets entirely for reasons I won’t even get into because it would take 1000 words), I think in the middle of the year when we are looking at division props, we should cherry pick not the teams who we think will necessarily WIN their divisions based on talent/health/form, but those based on simply by looking at the schedules and making that choice on the merits of those teams’ schedule strength .
B) I think this will account for close games at the end of the year and especially today, because there really isn’t one cut away team in these fields but a mash of top tier teams who all have flaws. It goes to demonstrate that the “age of parity” in the NFL is pretty much kaput, IMO.
And here are the picks:
Packers +4 (+105)
One theme in this year’s playoff: the team with the better QB, often wins the game. Aaron Rodgers has been on absolute fire in the last 10 games, and the Packers on a roll heading into the last game at the historical Georgia Dome, whose biggest memory is when Goldberg beat Hulk Hogan for the WCW title in 1998. Rodgers does well in domes, and his offenses have put up 52 and 33 in his last 2 games here. The team has come down with a locker room sickness, but they should feel a bit better today as both DeVante Adams and Jordy Nelson are expected to play. Do I think the Packers *win* outright? That’s a hard sell because Atlanta’s offense is so good and Green Bay’s defense nearly blew a 18 point lead vs Dallas last week. But considering the Falcons’ history of choking in these spots, including blowing a 14 point halftime lead vs the 49ers in 2013, taking the Green Bay ML isn’t a bad play here, either. The talk of the week has been the O/U, set at 61. I’m taking the under after seeing these stats on today’s NFL ref. I’ve seen many sharps take the under as that is the biggest O/U in playoff history, and the public is loving the over with both the league’s highest scoring offense (Atlanta) vs it’s hottest QB (Rodgers). The Under is probably the play there as games do tend to get a little tighter and closer at the end of the year, and considering the fact that we are also getting juice here, I say take the Packers and the points is the safe play. Green Bay 30, Atlanta 27 is my final score here.
Did you know that the Pats are two covers away from being tied for the best record against the spread in a single year (17-2)? That was by the 1989 SF 49ers, the greatest team I Have ever seen IMO. The lines they covered were far greater than the Pats one’s today, as it was common to see double digit lines in the 80s and 90s. Not so much today, and not so much for this Pats team, who in their gutsy cover last week showed some serious flaws in WR depth, interior offensive line play, and just turnovers in general. Granted, the Texans had the league (statistically) #1 defense, and it showed as DE Javeon Clowney really showed us something in these playoffs. That being said, the Steelers’ come in with a rash of injuries as well, especially at WR and TE, and that inpacted their red zone output in a gritty win in KC last week where they kicked 6 FGs and still won the damn game vs KC’s pathetic offense. The Steelers have shown road toughness down the stretch, and I think they can keep it close and cover but I just think the combination of Big Ben’s season long high ankle sprain, which has effected his accuracy, as well as the Steelers’ penchant of settling for field goals, will kill them in the end. I wish I could bet a prop where when the Pats turn the ball over, that the Steelers settle for a FG on the ensuing drive. I’m also taking a prop: Steelers Over FG 1.5 -135. We could have a miracle cover in this game. If the Pats had Gronk, I’d pick them to cover here……but with Brady being at home, 9-2 vs PIT in his career, and a healthy Julian Edelman, it should be enough to carry the Pats to the Super Bowl. Pats 27, Steelers 23.