Week 3 NFL

7 home dogs this week!

Buffalo ML +150

I have folks in my stream loving the +3…..but Denver is a bit over rated in my view after getting two weeks of home cooking. Buffalo is quietly has started as one of the best defenses in the NFL. Trevor Siemian due to go back down to earth here and I think its more of a coin flip game than people realize. Also West Coast team playing a 1pm start.

Chicago +8 (-120)

Our rule: if Big Ben and the Steelers are more than 7 point favs in any game, its +EV to take the other team. Chicago coming off an ass kicking, both injury and score wise, in Week 2 vs Tampa….. but they are 1-0 ATS at home so far this year and I can see the Steelers fucking up on special teams or get a bout of the “3 and outs” for a quarter or two and keeping the inferior Bears hanging around.

Texans vs Patriots Over 44.5

I know the Texans’ offense stinks, but they will find plays versus Belichick’s soft zones which are designed to keep Watson in the pocket and prevent the big play. Patriots maybe banged up but they will always find a way to score 30+ at home, like they did in the playoff game last year. Also count on a Houston special teams fuckup in Foxboro, they do it every year.

Atlanta vs Detroit Under 51

Did you know the under has hit in 70% of the games so far this year? And that *3* teams have *0* fucking touchdowns? I expect this game to be a close affair between two teams who may see each other in the playoffs. Atlanta’s offense is different on the road than they are at home.

TEASER (+150):

Packers -8.5
Panthers -6
Indianapolis +1

DFS:

Bellator MMA Bonus:

Larkin vs Daley Under 2.5 Rounds -115

These two motherfuckers hate each other. This fight wont be about just getting a “w”.

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NCAAF Plays

No justification for these.  When I post some winners then I will wax poetic about how deep my insights are.

Pitt +9.5 -103
Boston Coll +34 +100
Mich/Purd Over 51.5 -105
ODU +28 -106
UNLV +41 -104
Houston -6.5 -114
Arkansas St/SMU Under 73.5 -107
Ball St/WKU Over 51 -107
UL Monroe +6.5 -102

Hilton Contest Picks Week 3

Bears +7
Bills +3
Chargers +3
Bengals +8.5
Washington +3

Survivor: Green Bay

Season: 8-2-0, 2-0

Lord of Nationally Televised Broadcasts

There’s sports handicapping, and then there’s handicapping prime-time, nationally televised games.  In the first, the sports world is your buffet, it is up to you to pick out a couple of items from dozens of choices.  Based on sheer volume, there are going to be lazy lines, or games where info may be difficult to quantify in an algorithm, or public sentiment, or whatever.  Not so much, when there is only one or 2 games going on, though.  To anyone (including myself) who pops out an overall record, the subsection should be record in games played when the Eye of Sauron is blasting down full force.  So sometimes you let others lead the direct attacks on spreads and money lines, while you sneak around to get in on the action.  Temple had the #2 pass D last yr in college football.  They lose Reddick to the pros, but bring back a decent amount of talent…

Team Total : USF Under 40 -115

Week 2 NFL

Miami @ LA Chargers Over 46

NE @ New Orleans Over 56

Philadelphia +6 -125

Pittsburgh -9 (EVEN)

Parlay +101
Oakland Raiders-1000 ML
Seattle Seahawks-1000 ML
Carolina Panthers-280 ML
Pittsburgh Steelers-450 ML

TEASER +130:

New England -7
Carolina -7
Pittsburgh -9

GGG vs Canelo

GGG vs Canelo

I have no major thoughts tonight….it should be a great fight between two warriors who, I think, take it the distance. I am making a small play at -130 Fight Goes the Distance as I think this should be at around -175 or so. Canelo at +145 is OK value considering you are getting odds on an essential coinflip.

CFL BONUS:

Argos v Eskimos Over 52

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Hilton Contest Picks Week 2

Texans +6.5
Jaguars +2.5
Colts +7
Steelers -5.5
49ers +14

Survivor: Raiders

Season: 4-1-0, 1-0

NFL Week 1

Cleveland +10

Betting more against Big Ben’s torrid numbers on the road as supposed to how good of a chance Cleveland has to keep it close.

Baltimore +3

Both of these teams, Ravens and Bengals, stink

Philadelphia -1

The Washington Football team stinks and Philly should be pretty good this year

SD/Denver Over 43

NYG vs DAL Over 49

TEASER +120:

Carolina -6
Houston -6
SD/Denver Over 43

DFS:

Hilton Contest Picks Week 1

Bears +6.5
Browns +8.5
Jaguars +5
Vikings -3
Washington -1

Survivor Pick: Bills

YTD 0-0

-Lou

2017 NFL Over Unders – Lou

My 5 vs. Pat. Most of these were discussed on this week’s podcast w/ Sean

5) Chicago Over 5.5
4) Chargers Over 7.5
3) Rams Over 5.5
2) Raiders Under 10
1) Bungles Under 8.5