CFL Week 4

First off, I was a guest on buffaloholdem’s podcast, “Bet Like No One’s Watching”. We talk DFS, CFL, Bez Sizing, and more!

CFL Week 4 Picks:

Hamilton +3

Hamilton has been the worst team so far this CFL season, but they finally come home after a disastrous 2 game road trip to face the BC Lions, who are on Game 3 of a 3 game road trip. The Lions are a good team, but not great, especially on offense where they tend to sputter at times (mostly thanks to QB Jennings’ indecision with the ball) and keep teams in games (like Montreal last week). I expect them to keep this one close as they really need a W or things could really fly off the rails for the team I picked to win the East this year.

TEASER: Montreal/Calgary Over 48.5 and Ottawa +5

DFS:

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UFC 213 and a CFL play

UFC 213:

Gerald Meerschaert wins by inside decision +155

All this guy does is choke people the fuck out.

Yoel Romero -110

I’ve always watched loving this guy fight, and he is literally a mutant athlete. Whittaker is a special young fighter in his own right, but I think Yoel gets it done and Robert finds success eventually later in his young career.

Aleksei Oliynyk +195

One of my favorite past times: betting against an Edmond Tarverdyan fighter (Travis Browne). Browne is taller than his opponent, but he has the worse coach in MMA and is marrying Ronda Rousey in a few weeks. I expect fail again.

CFL:

Hamilton at Saskatchewan Over 51 -110

A buffaloholdem special. BTW John Campbell over at oddshark is currently 10-0 ATS this year so far in CFL. If you bet CFL, he’s a must follow as well.

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CFL Week 3

Montreal +3 (-105)

TEASER:

Montreal +3 and Calgary @ Winnipeg Under 59

DFS lineup this week:

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CFL Week 2

Teaser @ -125:
Calgary -7 and EDM/MTL UNDER 51

BC Lions +3 (-105)

And my CFL DFS lineup:

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Bellator PPV and UFC OKC

Bellator PPV:

Lorenz Larkin vs Douglas Lima – Will the fight go the distance YES @ -120

Chinzo Machida +210

Parlay +507
Michael Chandler-800, Matt Mitrione -135, Chinzo Machida +210

UFC OKC (Sunday Night):

Tim Boetsch +175

Johnny Hendricks missed weight AGAIN! And he moved up from 170 to 185 for this very reason. #fail

CFL (2-0 so far!):

BC v EDM Over 59 (-110)

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CFL Opening Day 2017!

First, here is my DFS lineup for the week:

Second, get ready for the CFL season with a preview with me and CFL guru buffaloholdem:

And finally, here are some plays for tonight:

Edmonton vs BC Over 59 (-110)
Hamilton -3.5 (-110)
TEASER: MTL -7 and Under 51 (-130)

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CFL 2017 Preview Podcast with Buffaloholdem, and thoughts on Ward/Kovalev

First, we got an exciting new pod out with buffaloholdem on his thoughts for the upcoming 2017 CFL Season! We’ve featured buffaloholdem’s bets here on the blog before, and my CFL success methodology has definitely been influenced by him…..so I wanted to ask him on how he attacks a sport not many keep up on (including the books) as much as the more popular offerings. The sound is a little off and I cleaned up what I could so you might have to turn things up a bit……but things could be worse: I could be Vince Young and somehow find a way to blow $26 million in 3 years. We talk to Buffaloholdem about his love of the game, why CFL is still such a great sport to find betting value on, and discuss each conferences’ teams, CFL DFS strategy, and give our predictions for the 2017 East, West, and the Grey Cup (Coupe de Grey) Winners.

Kovalev vs Ward 2

Kovalev +120

I am really surprised Kovalev is a dog, here. He won the first fight IMO as he knocked down Ward once ……but the judges gave Ward’s technical late round boxing the rest of the rounds and a 114-113 decision (if that sounds confusing to you, it is but Max Kellerman does a great job explaining how Ward could win a fight he got knocked down in here). Kovalev hasn’t been talking to press at all this week, hasn’t even listed his purse for the fight, and is seems primed to avenge his only loss of his career. These two great boxers were meant to fight a trilogy, and a Kovalev win assures that.

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UFC Fight Night and Belmont Stakes

Derek Brunson vs Daniel Kelly Will the fight go the distance? – YES @ +115

Mark Hunt wins by KO, TKO, DQ +140

The Belmont Stakes:

Gormley 8-1

NHL BONUS:

PIT +120 (hedge as a part of my NSH +145 series bet)

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Stanley Cup Finals

Nashville +145

This started at +135 and now has gone to +145. I decided to jump in on this, as I am still kicking myself to not pick Nashville +1200 before the playoff to win (I did take them in the first round vs Chicago, +145). A few reasons why I like this play is that I feel, we are getting odds on what I think is a coinflip. While Pittsburgh may have more talent, and home ice (which isn’t as big as people think; ask any Bruins fan), Nashville comes in with the hotter goalie (Renne has actually had the 13th best run of any goaltender up to this point in the playoff modern era) and more rest, as Pittsburgh had to play 2 grueling 7 game series (while flopping goalies due to inconsistency) back to back while Nashville took care of business early and got rest. Defenseman P.K. Subban has really helped their powerplay, and I think that will give them another edge in this series.

Take Nashville, who somehow has an NHL team that is really good.

One more thought: these games tend to go under, and most of the time you’ll get a 5.5 O/U line with the average totals scored per game over the history of the Stanley Cup Final coming in at around 4.91 goals per game. The O/U is 21-39-7 since 2006. That being said, I’m taking the over 5.5 (+125) in Game 1 as I think guys will be nervous which means bouncing pucks and plenty of penalties and power plays. Then, as the series progresses, things will start to get tighter (and under).

Memorial Under

9, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9, 11, 9, 8.  I think I got them all.  If I was a father I would insert the obligatory “They threw out the 11 from the Ukrainian judge” bad dad joke (BDJ).  These are over/unders for today.  I can honestly say I have never seen anything like this, not even a 7.5 in the bunch.  In order…

First thought, it’s Memorial Day, a lot of folks home with time to gamble.  Heavier action than usual, “life’s too short for unders,” jack the lines and exploit.

Second thought, it’s Memorial Day, usually a day off, bullpens will be tired from the weekend, Vegas is accounting for this.

Third thought, see if there is a Memorial Day phenomenon.  Last 2 years there were some heavy game totals but 2016 total was 121, 2015 total 124.

Fourth thought, well let’s put in a wager.

Total Runs Scored MLB Under 140.5 +100 

Happy Memorial Day.  Get better, Tiger.  (30-for-30 Title “Struggles on the Backside”)

****UPDATE****

Over gets smushed thanks to our friends in Houston and Toronto.  154 if my math is right.  The real lame part is Unders beat Overs 9-6 on the day.  But the overs were over the rainbow.  Not sure if that tells us anything interesting.  Also Update on Tiger blowing a 0.00.  Maybe he’s not in so rough shape.  BDJ, BOOM!