Northern Trust Open
I have entered a golf pick em league where each week the goal is to pick someone who is going to finish super high up on the leader board. Apparently leader board is two words. This week I am going with a rather bland, pedestrian pick of Bill Haas who has done very well here in recent years including winning it last year. Side action bets for 5 units
Charl Schwartzel at roughly 20:1
Sergio Garcia at roughly 19:1
Let’s watch!
NFL Plays
Saints ML +112
Jax Jags +3.5 -106
Bills +3 -115
Browns ML +116
Just looked at those last 3 picks. Jags, Bills, Browns ML. That is Murderer’s Row, ’27 Yankees type stuff. Was my keyboard laughing at me while I was typing that? Likely more lunacy to follow.
NCAA Picks
Had a solid day yesterday. Pretty sure I went 4-1 which should bring things back around .500 for the season. Let’s keep the mo’ going.
Clemson (-9.5) @ Furman *
Manhattan (+8) @ Harvard
Pacific @ Fresno St (-4.5)
South Dakota St @ Hofstra (+13)
Southern @ Wyoming (-19)
UNC-Wilmington (+19.5) @ Ohio
* I did about 10 seconds of research and it seems the rule of thumb for home court advantage in college bball is roughly 4 points. Something to keep in mind moving forward.
NCAA Picks
Five picks today, and only a slight majority of them are underdogs. I will get a hang of this…
Baylor @ Boston College (+12.5)
Dayton @ Colorado (-2.5)
N Colorado @ Cal Poly (-2.5)
NC State @ Penn St (+12)
Wichita St @ W Carolina (+17)
NCAA Picks
Pretty sure I went 1-2 after I wiped the W Virginia silliness off. Let’s see what underdogs I am infatuated with on the 24 hour day…
Florida Atlantic (+6) @ Mississippi St
Georgia St (+13) @ BYU
Texas Southern (+16) @ Northwestern
Of the bunch I really like the Florida Atlantic pick over Miss St. FL Atl may very well win the game. See what happens.
NCAA Picks
4 Plays tonight on the eve of the 24 hour marathon session. Again, mostly dogs.
Fordham (+21.5) @ Pittsburgh
UPenn @ Delaware (-8)
Troy (+16) @ Texas A&M
West Virginia (+10.5) @ Gonzaga (SEE UPDATE…)
Of the 4 I really like the first 2, and especially the Delaware play. With that said I will go 0-2 on those, push on the Troy bet, and cover W Virginia, the one I like the least. God Bless America.
UPDATE
I was strolling around today and I realized I had screwed up my pick on W Virginia. The W Virginia pick is null and void. This only further guarantees not only W Virginia covering but now they may possibly win the game outright. WV, you are welcome.
NCAA Picks
So primarily because it is a football Sunday I forgot to post my NCAA picks. I am going to post what I had primarily so that I have a written record of it.
Florida International (+14) @ Boston College
Manhattan (+17) @ Louisville
Milwaukee @ South Carolina (-5)
Oakland @ LA Lafayette (+4)
Tennessee-Martin (+27) @ Cincinnati
UC-Riverside (+10.5) @ Illinois-Chicago
Again, just looking at my picks I clearly am not giving dogs their due, at least in relation to Vegas. And the survey says…4-1-1. 4-7 record the first 2 days puts me at 8-8-1.
NCAA Picks
Rankings, momentum, recruiting classes, new coaches. These are all super things that people can look to to try to gauge the relative strengths of a team as a new season starts. But is there honestly a better determinant in figuring out just where a team lies in the pecking order, than by asking a team one simple question?
Coach : Well, we are really fired up about our team this year. We have some strong guys coming back from last year, combined with a new crop that we are just all kinds of excited about. We are confident in our abilities heading into this year.
Reporter : That’s great, coach. Now, I’m sorry, I just don’t have the paperwork in front of me. Do you open at home, or on the road this year?
That’s what it really boils down to. Of the 18 games pinnacle has lines up for today so far, exactly 3 of the teams are road favorites. This is a little misleading since it’s college bball there are mini tourneys going on where no one is technically home, but you get the point.
Went 4-6 yesterday on picks. Let’s see what I like today…
Portland (+15.5) @ Ohio
I am trying a new technique with the early season so far, which obviously was decidedly mediocre last night. But the point is that of the 18 games this is the only one that fits. If pinnacle posts some more lines I’ll have more to play with, we’ll see.
NCAA BBall
College Bball! No matter where you live, if you follow gambling lines there are always a change of seasons. College basketball is the truest gambling winter sport if you think about it. Played from mid-November til around April 1. Here’s what I have for today…
Bryant (+33.5) @ Indiana
Denver (+3.5) @ Iona
Georgia St @ Duke (-20.5)
Maryland (+11.5) @ Kentucky
Mississippi St @ Troy (+5.5)
North Dakota (+20.5) @ Kansas St
Southern Utah (+24) @ Gonzaga
Towson @ Charleston (+16)
UC Riverside (+18) @ Depaul
UC Santa Barbara @ LSU (-8)
Scrutinizing my own picks it looks like I do not have a healthy respect for college bball faves at the moment. See how things play out.
Happy Election Day
I am on the way to North Carolina this afternoon to witness the election live from a semi-competitive state. There’s really not a whole lot left to do as I have my entire bankroll down on 34 different bets. I’m listing the important ones in terms of percentage wagered below. Trying to get out of some of my Minnesota action and apply it elsewhere as there are better free money opportunities available. My hope is that some of these will get called early and graded out so as to free up the funds to be immediately placed down again.
A few other updates:
I kept adding to Obama to win so the tally as of now has the bet at -182. The books all have Obama around -350.
Added a small bet on Casey PA Senator at -605
I lied about not wanting more action on Wisconsin. The prices dropped back down so I added some more at -300.
I’ve reloaded twice this election cycle and feel like I could still get a decent return if given a five figure bankroll and told to start right now. Obama is obviously a value up to $7.25 or so, as are nearly all of the Senate races I have action on. PA and Wisconsin still have good prices for Obama to win as well, and I’ll make a small gamble on Florida to go Obama if any more money frees up.
Here’s the summary I promised:
| 7.50% | Obama Re-Elected |
| 1.51% | Romney 2% |
| 6.55% | Romney 3% |
| 12.93% | Romney 4% |
| 18.47% | Romney 5% |
| 19.42% | Romney 6% |
| 6.26% | Rep Pres + Senate Lose |
| 10.30% | Nelson (FL) |
| 5.23% | Warren (MA) |
| 8.94% | Brown (OH) |
| 2.87% | Whitehouse (RI) |
| 6.17% | Michigan |
| 7.92% | Minnesota (trying to free 2% here) |
| 5.42% | Pennsylvania |
| 5.05% | Wisconsin |
Quite pleased with being able to spread the risk around a bit and will save the investing corollaries for another day.
EDIT (9:18): Closed out of Minnesota for a miniscule gain and feeling frisky this morning. Obama to win the popular vote at -156.
