Miracle Covers

2013 MLB Over/Unders

Please don’t actually use these to make your own wagers. Pat and I are historically terrible and went 3/10 and 4/10 respectively last season. These are friendly wagers between Pat & myself with confidence scoring used. Per usual, I like my first 5 much more than the last 5 as the lines seem to get more difficult every year.

Here’s my 10:

10) Miami Marlins Over 63

It’s extremely enjoyable to have bet real American dollars on this over while the entire baseball universe is making fun of this team with comments like ‘I’ve never heard of half this roster,’ ‘A 57 year old Placido Polanco is batting cleanup for them,’ and ‘Juan Pierre.’ All of these comments are true, but it shouldn’t preclude this team from staving off 100 losses. It’ not like there are any teams in baseball that are so wonderful that would guarantee losses, and Miami does have lots of players & prospects, they just aren’t very good. This is one small step above Houston, who has a better 25 man roster but had to hold tryouts to fill their 40-man.

9) LA Dodgers Under 91.5

Not a fan of overpaying everyone on the roster except for the scrubs that are playing everyday while the rich folk do whatever rich folk do while on the DL.

8) Philadelphia Phillies Under 84

Old.

7) Kansas City Royals Over 77.5

I don’t think they make the playoffs and they made a dumb trade for Shields but it will help them short term. Opposite team of the Phillies and they both probably end up around .500.

6) New York Yankees Under 88

This dropped to 84.5 or even 84 before going off the board entirely. I will side with the majority here but this will be closer than people think. Last year Pat & I both took Toronto high up on our lists because of some line movement and got smushed.

5) San Diego Padres Over 74.5

We are into the crapshoot portion of the picks here. The Padres look better than last year but still not good.

4) Chicago White Sox Under 81
3) Milwaukee Brewers Under 81
2) Cleveland Indians Over 77.5
1) Arizona Diamondbacks Over 82.5

Lastly I am testing some systems this season for MLB and for MLS(soccer). More detail later but this is just testing so please don’t blindly follow, unless you’re up for that sort of thing.

MLB Over/Under Update

You dickheads have had plenty of time to corrupt this list so let’s update.  When last we left, these virgin, untouched lines were as pure as late February snow.  They have now, I am assuming, been defiled anally.  Let’s see where things stand.

1. Atlanta 87.5 (Under -123)
2. Arizona 82.5 (Under -120)
3. Baltimore 78.5 (Under -121)
4. Boston 83 (Under -131)
5. Cubs 72.5
6. White Sox 81 (Under -139)
7. Cincinnati 91 (Under -123)
8. Cleveland 77.5 (Over -147)
9. Colorado 70.5 (Over -130)
10. Detroit 92.5
11. Houston 59.5 (Under -124)
12. Kansas City 77.5 (Over -148)
13. Angels 91.5 (Over -133)
14. Miami 63 (Over -162)
15. Minnesota 67.5 (Over -149)
16. Oakland 84.5
17. Philadelphia 84 (Over -132)
18. Pittsburgh 77
19. San Diego 74.5 (Under -125)
20. San Francisco 88
21. Seattle 77.5
22. St Louis 86
23. Tampa Bay 86 (Over -136)
24. Texas 86.5 (Over -120)
25. Toronto 89
26. Washington 92

Thoughts, Observations and Hypothesis

• I cannot see Theo getting less than 73 in his second season.  Simply not how he is programmed
• Boston @ 83 seems generous
• Vegas must be slightly dying not being able to post O/U on Yanks or Mets at this moment
• Without looking wasn’t 77.5 the O/U for the Royals last year w/out Shields?
• Is Miami @ 63 the biggest drop-off ever?  They were 85.5 by my memory last year
• They have had recent injuries but I like San Diego Over
• Do people get bored betting on O/Us?  Do you see how the juice doesn’t exist the further you get alphabetically?
• I would like to bet on San Fran finishing exactly on their number

Lou and I will post our final numbers on this stuff in the next few days

NL SuperDork Follow-up

Here’s the roster of the team that graded out highest in my preseason projections by a solid 10 points in the standings. There is a lot of injury risk here, especially with Johan now out for the season. I am showing my team essentially tied for 2nd, then there are two more tied for 4th and then there’s everyone else, with the other team in the previous post last in nearly every category. These are of course projections and will cease to have any value on Monday.

5,2 54 $20 Latos, Mat P CIN
7,8 86 $16 Axford, John P MIL
7,12 90 $15 Betancourt, Rafael P COL
3,7 33 $11 Lincecum, Tim P SF
9,5 109 $10 Estrada, Marco P MIL
14,10 179 $2 De La Rosa, Jorge P COL
17,8 216 $2 Santana, Johan P NYM
19,5 239 $1 Marshall, Sean P CIN
21,3 263 $1 Peralta, Wily P MIL
5,4 56 $23 Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN
5,8 60 $22 Davis, Ike 1B NYM
3,5 31 $21 Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI
9,11 115 $21 Aoki, Norichika OF MIL
3,11 37 $18 Rutledge, Josh SS COL
8,7 98 $18 Frazier, Todd 3B CIN
8,2 93 $14 Ruggiano, Justin OF MIA
8,13 104 $12 Ludwick, Ryan OF CIN
8,9 100 $9 McCann, Brian C ATL
20,8 255 $6 Grandal, Yasmani C SD
19,9 243 $5 Taveras, Oscar OF STL
16,7 202 $4 Stewart, Ian 3B CHC
20,13 260 $4 Byrd, Marlon OF NYM
18,6 227 $3 Heisey, Chris OF CIN

Again, if I had another steals guy in Aoki, Pierre or Revere (all who went for the same price as Hunter Pence) I’d probably have a much better chance of winning. I could also have done with one more closer, but c’est la vie and all that. I’ll give myself a B- and vow to keep a running spreadsheet to track my team during the auction in the future.

Superdork NL Version

Because I’m a degenerate, I joined a high-stakes NL only league to counterbalance the AL-only league Pat, myself and others play in.  The difference here is that this league drafted online and plays for higher stakes.  My auction results are below.  To calculate my auction values, I downloaded and averaged a few of the projection databases (Zips and others, read more here), filtered only the 4×4 roto categories, and then backfilled the auction numbers with as many posted values as I could find, tweaking along the way where I thought the projections and the values didn’t match.  The expert leagues, even though they are 5×5, are a big help because with few exceptions you can call their prices the “true” price and adjust accordingly.  For example, even if I think Ryan Braun is going to get suspended again this season, I still have to list him at minimum of 39 on my sheet because he’s going to go for at least $40 in any draft.  (Braun did go for $40 in the expert leagues and $42 in mine, and I think I actually bid the $41).

With all that here is how my 13-team auction went down:

1,8 8 Team Lou $26 Upton, B.J. (OF ATL)
Being patient and trusting your sheet is probably the most difficult thing to do in an auction. Upton is fine here at $26, I had him in AL for $27 last season, and there’s definitely value in consistency. I had him at $27 or $28 but there’s really no reason to go to a max bid on any player this early. This would hurt me later in the evening.

2,9 22 Team Lou $9 Colvin, Tyler (OF COL)
Not sure what happened here as I had Colvin at $14 and he went for $16 in the expert leagues. I don’t really care that his spring training numbers are shitty.

2,13 26 Team Lou $27 Lee, Cliff (P PHI)
It’s important to get at least one ace in 4×4, especially if you are planning on taking lots of crap pitchers later.

3,4 30 Team Lou $35 Votto, Joey (1B CIN)
Incidentally, the one group of players I think it’s OK to pay max value for are the expensive All-stars. While there are always values late in the draft, you have to get stats from somewhere and as we will see with a competitor’s team later, hoarding all of your money until the end often results in overpaying for worse players. I still had Votto at $37 and so did the experts, so no problem here.

3,8 34 Team Lou $27 Gonzalez, Adrian (1B LAD)
I had Gonzalez at $28 or $29 but there is always one pick in every auction where the bidding stops instantly for no discernible reason. I didn’t particularly want or need Gonzalez, but he will put up a good batting average and earned $27 between both leagues last season.

3,9 35 Not My Team $14 Cichek, Steve (P MIA)
While I was busy being sad about getting stuck with Gonzalez, I missed getting a bid in here for $15. I would much rather have had Cishek for $15 than Marmol below.

6,3 68 Team Lou $20 Headley, Chase (3B SD)
Headley is only missing April and I will be happy once he returns.

6,10 75 Team Lou $12 Marmol, Carlos (P CHC)
See Cishek above though this isn’t terrible. He would be the only closer I would get which isn’t good.

7,4 82 Team Lou $14 LaRoche, Adam (1B WAS)
I now have three 1b but happily slot LaRoche into my DH spot as this price is somewhat ridiculous compared to the other 1b. $18-21 was the expected range here

7,10 88 Team Lou $21 Pence, Hunter (OF SF)
I had Pence at $22 but really could have passed here.

7,13 91 Team Lou $13 Uggla, Dan (2B ATL)
I had $15 for Uggla who will hopefully get me all 13 available points in HRs at this point. I also desperately need steals now, and a pitching staff.

8,4 95 Team Lou $6 Burnett, A.J. (P PIT)
10,4 121 Team Lou $9 Lynn, Lance (P STL)
10,8 125 Team Lou $5 Billingsley, Chad (P LAD)

These guys are all below market price and will hopefully not suck too bad. At this point I’m nearly out of dollars though. Where having Upton, Gonzalez and Pence hurt was this exchange:

9,1 105 $10 Young, Michael (1B PHI)
9,2 106 $16 Beltran, Carlos (OF STL)
9,3 107 $14 Soriano, Alfonso (OF CHC)

There is only a 25 second limit per player with the online draft, so it’s easy to miss a player. That happened with Young and I did not get a bid in. $10 is waaaay too low. I didnt have the money to bid on Beltran, but I would have much rather taken the injury risk and the extra $10 than have BJ Upton for $26. Would I rather have Young and Beltran than Upton and a $1 schmo? Yes, yes I would.

15,2 184 Team Lou $4 Hanigan, Ryan (C CIN)
15,6 188 Team Lou $13 Venable, Will (OF SD)
15,12 194 Team Lou $8 Ramos, Wilson (C WAS)

I sat around for an hour with no money watching a bunch of players go off the board. I did come back to life here, getting some much needed speed in my outfield as well as two non-shitty catchers for a total of $12. Hanigan and Ramos should both play half time or slightly more and won’t kill my batting average either.

16,1 196 Team Lou $2 Nolasco, Ricky (P MIA)

This is a gamble, but unlike the AL league, it’s much, much easier to get rid of underperforming players. If Nolasco sucks again, I can FAAB him off the roster without too much problem.

18,3 224 Team Lou $4 Blanco, Gregor (OF SF)

Did I mention I needed steals? I ended up with a team projection of 127, which is below the 150 I’d like to be at. It’s easier to find speed on the waiver wire than finding power or RBIs so I’m OK with this for now.

22,12 285 Team Lou $1 Ziegler, Brad (P ARI)
22,2 275 Team Lou $1 Villanueva, Carlos (P CHC)
23,6 292 Team Lou $1 Schumaker, Skip (2B LAD)
23,10 296 Team Lou $1 Hudson, Daniel (P ARI)
23,12 298 Team Lou $1 Gregorius, Didi (SS ARI)

Here is my endgame. I did not get a shortstop of any kind so I now have a shitty prospect sitting there instead. Ruben Tejada went for $2 somewhere around here which is ridiculous. I couldn’t even get Willie Bloomquist who is good for some cheap steals every season. It’s impossible to get a starter at every position in these auctions, but I would have preferred to get something. Again, this comes back to taking Gonzalez and friends earlier in the evening.

The pitchers are fine here. Ziegler always earns some dollars and it’s good to have an ERA & WHIP helper on the team, even if he won’t ever close. Hudson I like as a DL stash to contribute midseason and Schumaker should platoon with Ethier and get 200 ABs in Los Angeles.

Here is the draft for the team that I mentioned that sat on their money most of the night:

4,6 45 $35 Upton, Justin (OF ATL)
5,6 58 $23 Zimmermann, Jordan (P WAS)
9,12 116 $14 League, Brandon (P LAD)
10,11 128 $20 Segura, Jean (SS MIL)
10,13 130 $25 Alonso, Yonder (1B SD)
11,3 133 $22 Rosario, Wilin (C COL)
11,6 136 $14 Teheran, Julio (P ATL)
13,2 158 $14 Carpenter, Matt (1B STL)
13,8 164 $12 Duda, Lucas (OF NYM)
13,12 168 $12 Ryu, Hyun-Jin (P LAD)
14,2 171 $15 Simmons, Andrelton (SS ATL)
14,5 174 $1 LeBlanc, Wade (P MIA)
16,5 200 $3 Stults, Eric (P SD)
17,5 213 $3 Eovaldi, Nate (P MIA)
17,12 220 $5 Polanco, Placido (3B MIA)
18,4 225 $5 Melancon, Mark (P PIT)
19,3 237 $7 Cowgill, Collin (OF NYM)
20,2 249 $6 Descalso, Daniel (2B STL)
20,4 251 $11 Adams, Matt (1B STL)
21,11 271 $2 Sanchez, Hector (C SF)
21,12 272 $2 Rosenthal, Trevor (P STL)
21,13 273 $1 Blanks, Kyle (OF SD)
22,10 283 $1 Puig, Yasiel (OF LAD)

This was roughly my buying pattern at last year’s AL-only auction, only I did so because I couldn’t get a price on anyone I liked in the early rounds. I also had around $100 in keepers, so it’s easier to get value when there are fewer players to buy. I thought the prices for everyone from Alonso down to Carpenter were much too high. I also really wanted Teheran myself :) The money saved from not bidding earlier doesn’t do much good if it goes into players well over their max bid. For example, I’d much rather have Adrian Gonzalez for $27 instead of Alonso for $25.

I think my team is average though I’ve yet to run the projections up against the drafted rosters. 5/13 cash and there are no keepers so we’ll do this all over next season. The in season moves will prove to be important as we go along. I’ll post throughout the season if there is enough interest.

MLB Over/Under Win Totals

Hot off the presses.  As ush, any lines with decent juice (120 or more) will be noted.  This is the earliest I have ever caught the MLB lines so it will be interesting, if only for me, to watch how these evolve.

Atlanta Braves : 87.5

Arizona Diamondbacks : 82.5 (Under -124)

Baltimore Orioles : 78.5

Boston Red Sox : 83

Chicago Cubs : 72.5

Chicago White Sox : 81

Cincinnati Reds : 91

Cleveland Indians : 77.5

Colorado Rockies : 70.5

Detroit Tigers : 92.5

Houston Astros : 59.5

Kansas City Royals : 77.5

Los Angeles Angels : 91.5

Los Angeles Dodgers : 91.5

Miami Marlins : 63

Milwaukee Brewers : 81

Minnesota Twins : 67.5

New York Mets : 75

New York Yankees : 88

Oakland Athletics : 84.5

Philadelphia Phillies : 84

Pittsburgh Pirates : 77

San Diego Padres : 74.5

San Francisco Giants : 88

Seattle Mariners : 77.5

St Louis Cardinals : 86

Tampa Bay Rays : 86

Texas Rangers : 86.5

Toronto Blue Jays : 89

Washington Nationals : 92

THOUGHTS

• Amazing that 92.5 is the highest number on here at the moment.  Has to be the lowest high mark in recent memory.
• Why does it always have to be .5, give one team an over/under at .8 – Spice things up
• You can tell these lines haven’t been perverted yet by people like me.  There are hardly any lines with significant juice, that will change over the next couple weeks.

Very Early Baseball

Was checking out some very early baseball lines and there was nothing too noteworthy except for the AL East.  Looking at the odds below, no team is worse than a 9:1 shot which is impressive in a 5 team race.  The Red Sox are probably being given too much credit at +625 but who knows.  And most amazingly, the favorite at this moment are your Toronto Blue Jays.  Dickey indeed.