Tuesday

Took a few days off on holiday. Went 1-1 on baseball plays last Thursday and am 1-3 for the season (-1.68u)

No plays today with the Champions League about to kickoff and nothing in baseball tonight. Superdork on both league sides are not off to a good start.

Baseball Plays

NY Yankees @ Detroit Tigers -1.5 @ +118 for 18 Units

The Yankees are struggling at the moment, let’s ride the wave.  And who the fuck is C C Sabathia these days anyway?  And we get Verlander.

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Over 8 @ -101 for 10 Units

Boston Red Sox ML @ +112 for 17 Units

Both of these bets are based on the premise that Dickey needs to show me something fast.  I mean, what?

Do not like anything at all about either the Mets/Marlins or Nats/Reds games.

Update

Also took…Cleveland @ Tampa Bay +1.5 +116 for 18 Units

Arizona DBacks @ Milwaukee Under 7.5 @ -105 for 23 Units

Oakland A’s ML @ -154 for 22 Units

SD Padres @ Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 @ -110 for 28 Units

Live In Bet Update (LIBU)

Interesting scores. My Red Sox and A’s picks prove I am a genius, my Rays and Tigers picks prove I know nothing.  Watching the Pads/Rox game where the scoreboard operator was messing with Over fans.  After a double play, they left the marker like there was still a man on first.  Sure enough, the next guy up gets a hit and now there were men on 1st and 2nd.  I felt bad for Chacin, the poor bastard didn’t even know that if he walked the next guy the bases would be loaded.  3-1 currently in the 4th, need to get to 11.

Update

LA Angels ML @ +126 for 33.45 Units

Soccer Play

Redknapp says this game is a must win.  To my ill equipped soccer ears that sounds like “aggression.”

THE PICK

Wigan @ QPR Over 2.5 -112 15 Units

As of 4/1/13 = -9.78 Units

 

LIVE IN BET UPDATE

A hit post, a few saves, and Bobby Zamora unintentionally, but unquestionably, kicking a guy in the head, resulting in a red card, all seem to kill any chances of my bet.  The crowd is booing the fouled player on Wigan for having his head recklessly placed on top of his shoulders with no regard for Zamora’s cleats.

NCAA Picks

The entire year, literally the entire damn year, I have thought Michigan has been overrated.  And they have consistently proven what a fool I am.  Let’s keep it rolling.

THE PICK

Michigan @ Syracuse +1.5 -102 32 Units

SIDE PICK

Michigan @ Syracuse Under 129.5 -108 24 Units

 

Thursday

We covered our U3.5 in Madrid yesterday. Odd match that was. One play so far today:

Twins Pelfrey +132 v Detroit

Considering the following:

Benfica -220 v Newcastle
Need teamsheets for this. Price is steep.

Myers Cle +156 @ Toronto

MLS is also looking blah this weekend. KC -133 and Dallas/Toronto Under 2.5 the best of the bunch.

EDIT: Taking Cleveland at the better price +170

MLB Over/Unders

I had a lost weekend this past weekend and wrote these at some point during it.  I was thinking you would have to take me on my word, but seriously, not only do I have the Mets under I have the Padres over.  If run differential counted in baseball I am pretty sure the Mets would be in 1st and the Padres in last.  Note, I would like to apologize at how skimpy the rationale behind the picks are for me this year, but I will make up for it with increased pick activity during the season.  Let’s see what I like.

  • #10  Detroit Tigers (Under 92.5)  I like Detroit’s rotation, but their closer situation is worrisome to say the least.  For those of you who watched the Red Sox on a regular basis last year, you understand how crucial a stopper is.
  • #9  San Diego Padres (Over 74.5)  So we know that Carlos Quintin will be injured in the process of opening his mail tomorrow.  The infield for San Diego is muy bueno.
  • #8  Cincinnati Reds (Under 91)
  • #7  St Louis Cardinals (Over 86)  The Cardinals can pitch, and I am becoming increasingly attuned to how that impacts season O/Us.
  • #6  Seattle Mariners (Over 77.5)
  • #5  Chicago Cubs (Over 72.5)
  • #4  New York Mets (Under 75)  Excuse me?  75 wins?  This is one of those situations which seems so obviously wrong that it has to be right.
  • #3 Kansas City Royals (Over 77.5)  When you pop this team on paper, they appear downright legit.  And then you put them all in Royal uniforms and the whole thing goes to shit.
  • #2  Atlanta Braves (Under 87.5)  Read Detroit entry
  • #1  Los Angeles Angels  (Under 91.5)  Again, legit concerns on bullpen.

Wednesday

Lots of discussion about PSG’s 2-2 draw against Barcelona yesterday. It doesn’t really change Barca’s chances of advancing very much at all with the 2 away goals. Pinnacle has Barcelona up to a -700 favorite (PSG +570).

One interesting note from Monday, KC Royals manager Ned Yost decided to bat 3b Mike Moustakas cleanup against lefty Chris Sale and Moustakas promptly left 7 men on base in a 1-0 loss to the White Sox. This is something to watch the next time KC faces a lefty.

Nothing doing in baseball today. Should have taken Iwakuma for Seattle last night at +125

Champions League

PSG to advance +500

Madrid-Gala Under 3.5

2013 MLB Over/Unders

Please don’t actually use these to make your own wagers. Pat and I are historically terrible and went 3/10 and 4/10 respectively last season. These are friendly wagers between Pat & myself with confidence scoring used. Per usual, I like my first 5 much more than the last 5 as the lines seem to get more difficult every year.

Here’s my 10:

10) Miami Marlins Over 63

It’s extremely enjoyable to have bet real American dollars on this over while the entire baseball universe is making fun of this team with comments like ‘I’ve never heard of half this roster,’ ‘A 57 year old Placido Polanco is batting cleanup for them,’ and ‘Juan Pierre.’ All of these comments are true, but it shouldn’t preclude this team from staving off 100 losses. It’ not like there are any teams in baseball that are so wonderful that would guarantee losses, and Miami does have lots of players & prospects, they just aren’t very good. This is one small step above Houston, who has a better 25 man roster but had to hold tryouts to fill their 40-man.

9) LA Dodgers Under 91.5

Not a fan of overpaying everyone on the roster except for the scrubs that are playing everyday while the rich folk do whatever rich folk do while on the DL.

8) Philadelphia Phillies Under 84

Old.

7) Kansas City Royals Over 77.5

I don’t think they make the playoffs and they made a dumb trade for Shields but it will help them short term. Opposite team of the Phillies and they both probably end up around .500.

6) New York Yankees Under 88

This dropped to 84.5 or even 84 before going off the board entirely. I will side with the majority here but this will be closer than people think. Last year Pat & I both took Toronto high up on our lists because of some line movement and got smushed.

5) San Diego Padres Over 74.5

We are into the crapshoot portion of the picks here. The Padres look better than last year but still not good.

4) Chicago White Sox Under 81
3) Milwaukee Brewers Under 81
2) Cleveland Indians Over 77.5
1) Arizona Diamondbacks Over 82.5

Lastly I am testing some systems this season for MLB and for MLS(soccer). More detail later but this is just testing so please don’t blindly follow, unless you’re up for that sort of thing.

MLB Over/Under Update

You dickheads have had plenty of time to corrupt this list so let’s update.  When last we left, these virgin, untouched lines were as pure as late February snow.  They have now, I am assuming, been defiled anally.  Let’s see where things stand.

  1. Atlanta 87.5 (Under -123)
  2. Arizona 82.5 (Under -120)
  3. Baltimore 78.5 (Under -121)
  4. Boston 83 (Under -131)
  5. Cubs 72.5
  6. White Sox 81 (Under -139)
  7. Cincinnati 91 (Under -123)
  8. Cleveland 77.5 (Over -147)
  9. Colorado 70.5 (Over -130)
  10. Detroit 92.5
  11. Houston 59.5 (Under -124)
  12. Kansas City 77.5 (Over -148)
  13. Angels 91.5 (Over -133)
  14. Miami 63 (Over -162)
  15. Minnesota 67.5 (Over -149)
  16. Oakland 84.5
  17. Philadelphia 84 (Over -132)
  18. Pittsburgh 77
  19. San Diego 74.5 (Under -125)
  20. San Francisco 88
  21. Seattle 77.5
  22. St Louis 86
  23. Tampa Bay 86 (Over -136)
  24. Texas 86.5 (Over -120)
  25. Toronto 89
  26. Washington 92

Thoughts, Observations and Hypothesis

  • I cannot see Theo getting less than 73 in his second season.  Simply not how he is programmed
  • Boston @ 83 seems generous
  • Vegas must be slightly dying not being able to post O/U on Yanks or Mets at this moment
  • Without looking wasn’t 77.5 the O/U for the Royals last year w/out Shields?
  • Is Miami @ 63 the biggest drop-off ever?  They were 85.5 by my memory last year
  • They have had recent injuries but I like San Diego Over
  • Do people get bored betting on O/Us?  Do you see how the juice doesn’t exist the further you get alphabetically?
  • I would like to bet on San Fran finishing exactly on their number

Lou and I will post our final numbers on this stuff in the next few days