Monday
Nothing doing again today. Hopefully this won’t last a whole week without any plays again. A couple of links:
1) Here’s a more thorough description of the Spanish soccer shenanigans that I mentioned a few days ago. One note that I forgot to mention is that in Spain, it’s legal to pay (bribe) a team to win but not ok to pay a team to lose. It’s the latter issue that is more problematic.
2) The Sabermetrics of Little League
You’re likely familiar with the defensive spectrum—the order of positions from easiest to fill to most difficult. The defensive spectrum in Major League Baseball is:
1B < LF < RF < 3B < CF < 2B < SS < C < P In my son’s league, the spectrum looks something like: C < LF < RF < LCF < RCF < 3B < 2B < SS < P < 1B There are some pretty big differences: First base could not be any more important at this level. Not only does your first baseman need to catch the ball (which by itself is very difficult at this age), but also catch balls thrown by other children. It’s one thing to catch a throw from an adult. But from another five- or six-year old? That’s tough. The defensive efficiency at this level can be seen in the team’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Right now, the Angels have 127 hits in 131 balls in play (I’m not calling anything by a five-year old an “error” because I’m not an ass). That’s good for a BABIP of .969. Yes, his team actually has statistics posted.
Pat really needs to do something like this for beer league softball.
Sunday
We lost our play on Chicago last night as the Royals won 2-0 with Guthrie getting the complete game shutout. My other bet against the Royals this season saw Erwin Santana do the same thing. While this is unlucky to an extent, I’d like to link here to a quick item on Guthrie and the secretly terrible White Sox offense.
You don’t usually see a guy with 1111 innings of a certain level of production become something significantly better in their 30s. At least not without a major change in their pitch mix either by adding a pitch or using what he has differently. There hasn’t been any of that with Guthrie which made his improvement even more suspicious. This split of his innings as a Royal definitely stood out:
Guthrie ERA
WHIP
K%
BB%
vs. CWS 35.7
0.50
0.81
21%
2%
vs. Rest 87.7
4.21
1.31
14%
7%
I won’t go through all the metrics on the White Sox, but they are only ahead of the Marlins this season in runs scored, and they play with a DH.
As far as how the sketchy soccer games ended up, Cagliari and Chievo drew 0-0. Levante tried a little more against Mallorca and finished 1-1 and Zaragoza won 3-0. Maybe we need to be betting on these after all? Will have a look again next week.
Nothing in baseball or leftover soccer games today.
MLB Saturday
We deservedly went 1-1 yesterday after Colorado lost in 10 and Padres barely held on to their 4-run lead in the 9th against Arizona. One play today:
White Sox (Axelrod) +131 @ Kansas City (Guthrie)
Talk to ya’ll tomorrow
Soccer Saturday
The end of the soccer season brings up matches against clubs with differing objectives. This is always true, but is magnified by the whatever scenarios the table reflects. For example, Swansea who won a cup and a European place a month or so ago have failed to win since, enjoying an extended holiday. In Spain, they take this to a whole other level, with the allegations of maletas (suitcases, presumably filled with cash) being passed around from clubs needing points to their weekly opponents who do not. Levante, who also haven’t won in a month, are the latest to be accused
Following the heavy loss to Deportivo, Levante forward Jose Barkero apparently accused four of his teammates— captain Sergio Ballesteros, goalkeeper Gustavo Munua, forward Juan Luis “Juanlu” Gomez, and defender Juan Francisco “Juanfran” Garcia— of a suspicious lack of effort in the match.
Barkero later publicly retracted his accusations. It is not clear if the league had already begun investigating prior to leaks of Barkero’s accusations.
“I only want to make public what I have told my teammates,” Barkero said at a news conference on Wednesday. “I asked them for forgiveness, above all my four teammates, those who I accused of something erroneous. I ask Ballesteros, Munua, Juanlu, and Juanfran for forgiveness for what I have done to their image, their persons and their family, because they didn’t deserve it.
“I am the one who was wrong. I accused them of something that didn’t really happen.”
Match-fixing is a crime in Spain and can lead to prison time for individuals or expulsion of a club from official competition.
Nothing sketchy to see here at all. It should also be noted that the Spanish FA is between 10 and 100 times more incompetent than Congress depending on who you ask, so any investigation will likely go the way of the US Attorney “investigating” a TBTF bank. See if this makes any sense:
Kick-off times are not confirmed until a fortnight or so before the matches take place, when the details are published on this page. However, these are liable to change at short notice and we strongly recommend you check with the club if you are hoping to attend a game.
This season first division kick-off times have been spaced out so that as a general rule no two matches coincide. This means that, as from week 13, there will normally be one match on Friday night and one on Monday, with four games spaced out between 4.00 p.m. and 10.00 p.m. on Saturday, and four more on Sunday between mid-day and 9.00 p.m. Only one match will be shown on an open TV programme, with the specialised sports channel Marca usually broadcasting a fixture between two of the lesser ranked teams on Friday or Monday night. All the rest will be shown on Pay Per View channels. Second division matches are mainly shown on Saturday afternoon, but can take place any time between Friday and Monday, especially if they are being televised.
Let’s just say that something like Extra Innings for Spanish soccer has not been considered. Also Madrid and Barcelona get over 50% of the league’s TV revenue while the rest of the teams flirt with bankruptcy. Which leads one to wonder where they are finding the cash for the maletas.
ANYWAY, the point of all of this is that there is sketchiness going on all over the pace with these end of season lines. Bottom of the table Mallorca, who are bankrupt, are -133 at home to Levante this weekend. Levante might be worth a play if only because they need to pretend a little more like they are trying. Zaragoza who are 19th are evens at home to 8th place Rayo. But my favorite this week, is in Italy, where Cagliari and Chievo face off. O/U 2 with evens on the draw, which is something I don’t think I’ve ever seen. Let’s just assume that there are plenty of good seats available.
I’m passing on all of this as I don’t have any insight on which team is or is not going to tank or not on a given day. I need a translator for all of these foreign player twitter feeds as we would probably have a better idea from paying closer attention. Nothing else in MLS so far either. MLB later
Friday
Not a good day yesterday as Portland had 22 shots and 2/3 possession only to draw with the Revs 0-0. This actually wasn’t a horribly depressing unwatchable 0-0 like most Revs games and New England even got a few good chances at the end as Portland pushed forward in search of a winner. As expected given all of this, the finishing and final ball were poor throughout. I also missed a bet on the Houston-Detroit under because I thought the game started at 10, but the Tiggers got 4 in the top of the 14th for the miracle over, so a bet saved there.
Early leans on the Mets, Colorado, Texas and Houston today. One note on these leans that I’m trying to post in the morning is that Houston and Miami will be getting flagged in the first sweep often because they are a) terrible and b) no one bets on them. This doesn’t mean you or I should. I have 5 plays on these two so far for 2-3 +0.16. Keeping in mind that a +200 line equates to a 33% chance of winning, and that this is almost the default line for Houston, there should be enough plays where we can pick & choose the ‘best’ ones.
EDIT:
Two plays tonight:
SD (Marquis) at home to Arizona (Miley) +104
Colorado (Francis) at home to TB (Moore) +112
I’ll take Houston with Norris tonight if I am around and the line moves in our favor. Spoiler alert: it won’t.
Free Money Alert: Code Green
I don’t like to recommend any of my hometown teams often for a bet….I actually think it is bad luck.
I’ve even done the most cardinal sin, and once bet against them vs Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 while they were up, 3-to-1, going into Orlando for Game 5 (Orlando -4).
Our friend Francis, while at the Everett de Castle lounge drinking beer and kvetching about the series, blurts out:
“Dude, Perkins has one more tech to go (before an auto game suspension…otherwise known as the “Rasheed Wallace Award”). It’s David Stern. The refs will fuck us over. They’ll get one more game in Boston just for the ratings”.
And I was like……
holy shit……….
FREE MONEY*
The Celtics line now at +2 (was at +1.5 at 6pm) at home against the New York Knickerbockers is a very good play tomorrow.
The Knicks, after being up 3-0 in the best of 7, dominating every second half, and nearly coming back from a 20 point deficit in the 4th game……have looked absolutely atrocious 7 out the last 8 quarters. They are a shooting team; so if they don’t shoot well, they don’t win. That’s the usual stock analysis of a “shooting team”.
They are also NOT a passing team, because some players on their team….well they just refuse to do it. This despite having Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton on the team. They’ll have their moments, but at times, I feel like I’m watching Darts playing NBA Jam with just Melo and JR Smith…….and no one else exists on the Knicks offense. Iman Shumpert’s points only happen when the ball somehow finds the way into his hands by the grace of God.
Did you know that Carmelo Anthony had *2* passes in Game 1? No, not assists (he had only 1 of those..here is wife Lala celebrating that here)……but passes. Carmelo seems like the type of guy who probably doesn’t pass the salt at the dinner table, never mind off of a pick and roll (which Felton has abused with Chandler all series…….the Celtics have no answer for Felton. This may be the reason why the Knicks don’t run it all the time).
You’d think passing the ball against an older, slower team like the Celtics would be a strategy to use?
JR Smith went 0-11 in Game 5 before his first FG. Do you know how hard that is to do?
Throw in the the stupid black suit karma factor (do they wear them again here?), the Celtics’ guile despite playing just a 6.5 man rotation in Game 5, down 11-0 to start the game (40+ min for Pierce/KG is a concern), the fact that NBA Marketing executives have about potentially 5-7% of their yearly sales riding on a Boston/NY Game 7 (esp with THIS storyline), and the fact that a Boston team has kind of done this to a New York team before……
……+2 is a great play.
The final kicker? There have been 11 times an NBA team down 3-0, has won the next two games. Every time that a Game 6 was played at the team’s home court……the home team has won. That goes for teams who were ahead OR behind in the series.
Coincidentally, Houston also is hosting a Game 6 (HOU -1), despite being down 3-0, now 3-2, vs an Westbrook-less OKC.
Mathematically, the streak will have to be broken. It can’t go on for infinity, it’s not a Derby**, and it rarely happens…so odds are 1 out of the two teams Friday will break it (although for those keeping with the math, a parlay with Boston and Houston line is +264).
Why not Houston?
OKC has Durant…and the Knicks do not.
*He was right (and also another reason I bet the C’s in game 6 of that series using this logic….the Lakers had clinched the night before to the Finals, and wouldn’t you know it….two quick fouls on Howard in the 1st quarter of Game 6!).
** Kentucky Derby pick this weekend: Itsmyluckyday (12/1)…just because it looks like an online poker name
Thursday
One MLS play tonight. Going with the public if there is such a thing in MLS with Portland tonight -143 at home to the Revs. Barcelona’s loss at home yesterday is basically why there was no bet on Madrid the day before. Absolutely anything can happen in these two leg games when the 2nd leg home team is trailing.
Even more nothing in baseball today and it’s not just me continuing to be nitty with the lines. Tigers/Astros under 9.5 is the closest but we need lineups so this will be a game-time decision.
MLB 5/2
HO! I just went from lukewarm to hot. Over the last few days we have gone from being down 100 Units as of 4/1 to up 100 Units. The only game I like with any measure of confidence at the moment is
O’s ML +106 @ Angels @ 24
I think we like the Over in the Royals game but I am going to hold off until I see a lineup. Update to follow either way.
UPDATE
Rays @ Royals Over 7.5 -102 @ 24
MLB Play 5/1
Kudos to Louis for nailing his expected outcome in the Real Madrid 2nd leg. Still going pretty good at the moment on baseball picks. Several plays I like today after not really liking anything yesterday. See how these go.
Rays @ KC Royals ML +100 @ 24
Padres @ Chi Cubs ML +107 @ 24
Angels @ A’s Under 8.5 -113 @ 18
SF Giants ML +107 @ Arizona @ 24
Chi White Sox ML +104 @ Texas @ 24
Wednesday
Our leans did well last night with Cleveland smushing the Phillies and the Marlins winning in their last at-bat again. Out third lean that I think was unposted was Toronto over Boston. All of these were 10-15 points off of where they would have been a play. Our actual play on Arizona lost but our total covered so we were even on the day. 9-7 +4.06 for April
In soccer, Madrid did in fact win 2-0 yesterday with two late goals, but both sides had lots of chances and it was a miracle under.
Not much to look at today. Cleveland’s line moved 20 points overnight after their 14-2 win. I would take Colorado-LA Over 7 if it were still available, but it’s unlikely to move back down from 7.5. Will update per usual with any plays.
