Wednesday
Day games got the better of me today, where Miami’s line moved just to where it should be for a play and they lead Atlanta early 4-1. Nothing yesterday to report. HOU/STL Over 7.5 or 8 and BOS/SEA Over 8 are close today though my public numbers are showing a significant percentage on the BOS/SEA over. The public numbers aren’t much of an indicator on MLB totals because there’s just not enough action and most end up with less than 60% on either side. That said, if your only gambling rule was to avoid the public at all costs you’d probably be in the 80th percentile on that alone. Seattle has a much improved offense with their recent callups and I have been looking to take their over action because of this, so we will see.
Nothing doing in Gold Cup action either. With the ‘B’ lineups for the US & Mexico and no other top ranked teams participating, it’s a pretty blah tournament and I haven’t watched more than a few minutes. Martinique, the island not the stripper, earned a 0-0 draw with Canada the other day and were the better team throughout. Belize, who is US beat 6-1 last night, is openly soliciting donations to pay for their trip. I passed on the -2000 on the US in that one.
Updates later per usual if anything develops.
Tuesday
Two losers yesterday though both games were close. Miami ultimately lost in 14 and their bullpen held the Braves hitless for 7 straight innings before conceding 6 in the top of the 14th. The White Sox were tied through seven but lost 4-2.
Only option today is Milwaukee and the line is 9-10 points off of Pinnacle, so no play for me. Nothing on totals either.
Monday
One winner and one loser yesterday as Mendoza got chased in the 2nd and Kansas City were never in the game after that. Chivas parked the minivan as expected in Montreal and managed a 1-1 draw, covering our 2.5 and 3 under.
No soccer bets on the Gold Cup which started yesterday as I can’t find any public betting numbers to go off of. As learned earlier, it’s flying blind without having this at minimum. I also can’t claim to be an expert on the Hatian national team.
Two plays so far in baseball today:
Atlanta (Minor) @ Miami (Slowey) +145
Cubs (Garza) @ White Sox (Santiago) -105
Totals and any updates later this afternoon/evening.
Sunday
Two for three in soccer yesterday as the Revs beat San Jose 2-0 and Vancouver topped Seattle by the same score. Philadelphia couldn’t hold on for the draw however, losing 1-0 in Houston. Five MLS games today but zero one play:
Chivas @ Montreal UNDER 2.5 & 3 +104
One baseball play today:
Oakland (Griffin) @ Kansas City (Mendoza) +116
Saturday #3
That’s what if feels like after the pseudo holiday yesterday. In unhappy gambling, I tried to get a play in on Arizona last night, only to find the shitty Bookmaker lines 10 points off of Pinnacle. It went from -130 to -140 to finally -144 before first pitch. I would have taken the -130 or -131 had it been available. Tyler Skaggs was excellent and Arizona cruised 5-0.
In happier news, our total won again yesterday with Texas covering the 10 on their own. 7-1-1 for the season on totals, with the ones being a miracle cover and a push. I’m starting to be a little more aggressive with these given the early success. We’ll see in a few months if I am really onto something or just off to a fortunate start.
Carrasco and Cleveland at home to Sanchez and Detroit is basically the only option today.
In soccer, taking all three MLS games:
San Jose @ New England UNDER 2.5 -130
Philly @ Houston DRAW +265
Seattle @ Vancouver -112 (No Draw)
And it was a Miracle Cover
I sucked at gambling yesterday, but ended up 2-1 thanks to the kinds of plays that this site was named after. Not only did I screw up and check the prior day’s lineups for Mets/Diamondbacks, both managers sent out all of their available reserves to start after Friday’s game ended after midnight with a day game to follow. Unsurprisingly, two offenses filled with backups left many potential runs on the board. This continued into extras tied 2-2 where Arizona got a run but should have had 2-3 more. Arizona got one run in the 13th and 14th innings, but were foiled by solo home runs by the Mets two worst hitters in the bottom half of each inning to win the over.
Detroit and Toronto was never close as Verlander found his groove and the Tigers won 11-0. Mujica blew a save for the Cardinals to get us the winning day. Nothing in soccer thankfully as there would have been only losers there.
I am not seeing anything in baseball today but will have a look again this afternoon.
EDIT: Found one! Houston (Harrell) @ Texas (Tepesch) OVER 9.5
Happy 4th
Short on time so I’ll get straight to the plays. Nothing to report from yesterday.
Detroit (Verlander) @ Toronto (Rodgers) +117
St. Louis (Wainwright) @ LA Angels (Blanton) +120
Arizona(Kennedy) @ Mets(Gee) OVER 8
Passing on MLS again today Dallas -250 is closest to a play.
Wednesday
2-1 in baseball last night as we saw how (somewhat) meaningless these line moves can be, or in other words that the game is played “on the field.” Mets were a winner after a close game was broken open in the 7th after a lengthy rain delay. I got +115 but the line moved back up to where it started around +126-130 in the hour before game time. Alternately, the other play last night on Oswalt and Colorado only dropped the entire day, which should be a good thing and closed around +125. The +141 didn’t matter as the Dodgers led the whole way and won 9-0. In totals, the under 8.5 just got there with the White Sox winning 5-3. It looked like an easy win until the 7th when Jason Hammel turned back into a pumpkin. He’s not been able to repeat last season at all as has an ERA around 5.00 again, meaning he’s the same pitcher he’s been his entire career. Related, after Roy Oswalt’s poor start with Colorado, it’s possible he’s finished being an effective major league starter. He stunk last year with the Rangers too, and it’s a little more than just pitching in hitters parks.
Lastly, Homer Bailey no-hit the Giants last night and it’s not the most surprising result. The Giants have been swinging the bats horribly of late and their pitching isn’t very good either. The bats will come around as they have 4-5 average to above hitters, but the rest are close to replacement level. This isn’t new to the Giants, but without an A pitching staff they are basically the same team as the Phillies, somewhere around or just below .500. The Phils aren’t making the playoffs this season and I don’t expect the Giants to either.
In baseball today I’m waiting on the Baltimore & White Sox total to go up but otherwise I didn’t see much to work with. On sides it’s probably Josh Johnson & Toronto or nothing.
In tennis, Del Potro was excellent this morning winning in straight sets. I’d like to get into tennis betting some more but will probably keep the volume and size very small going forward.
MLS, as previously mentioned, sucks for playing through all these international games. Most teams are missing 3-4 players out of their usual 18 and it’s harder than usual to sort out what’s what. I have a few leans but will probably pass on everything.
Updates later per usual.
UPDATE: I really want to take San Jose – Chicago draw but cannot bring myself to do it. Chicago will probably win 1-0. Nothing in baseball and I will post more about the Reds tomorrow. Happy 4th.
Tuesday
Nothing to report again yesterday, but there’s definitely some action today. Two confirmed plays so far:
Arizona (Corbin) @ Mets (Hefner) +115
LA Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Colorado (Oswalt) +141
Game-time decision on the White Sox-Baltimore under 8.5. It’s close but may end up being worth a play. In the other game of note today, Miami heads to Atlanta for a series with the Bravos. The Marlins won again last night at home to the Padres 4-0. They are playing like a legitimate baseball team and the +215 tonight is probably too high based on current form alone. This is a case of no one paying attention that a bad team is playing well, just like how the Giants lines haven’t moved much in the other direction despite their pitching being awful and the offense not doing much either. They are below .500 for the first time in a while.
The Natinals just got Bryce Harper back off the DL and won last night and are 6 or so games back of Atlanta in the NL East. While I don’t think they quite get there, I’ll be taking them in a future to win the East if I can find one.
In non-baseball, one bet I’m taking in Wimbledon for small, small dollars is Del Potro against Ferrer tomorrow, +135. MLS has an almost full slate Wednesday and Thursday so look for that tomorrow as well.
UPDATE: Baltimore/White Sox Under 8.5 -110
Canada Day
Known better as July 1 here, it’s a day where most Americans grumble about not being European and having 4-8 weeks of vacation in so many words. Seriously, how is it July already? No plays today on a usual abbreviated Monday. San Francisco would be a play but I am trying my best to kick out most of the away teams that pop up on my filters list as those have been losers in total. Home teams with the same criteria are winners and my totals are rare but awesome as previously mentioned.
11-10-1, +2.1 for July. 32-30-1, +6.04 for the season. In other season long MLB plays, I have Cleveland at +1000 to win the AL Central and they are currently tied with Detroit at the halfway point. Also have Oakland to win the AL West at +455 and the are half a game behind the Rangers. Lastly I have the Marlins Over 63 and they are off pace at 29-51 but have gone from around a zero percent chance to around 35-40% of covering that with their strongly improved play in June. These will all pay out roughly the same and one in three hitting will be roughly a push and two or three will make me more than just life winner.
In Over/Unders I might actually break .500 this year. My bottom 5 are all on pace, and the top 5 all have a chance as well, proving that “Confidence” scoring is really just a way to make you hate yourself instead.
Fantasy Update at some point this week.
