The madness is over and I am sad, did pretty good this year. Gonna ride UNC tonight -2,5 (-105). Villanova is a fun, good team…..I just think UNC has too much depth and talent and rebounding. Plus this could be Roy Williams’ last game.
Sanders -300 to win WI (this is now at -800 at some books…he is crushing polls in WI).
As I noted back in November, I took the Warriors at +310 to win 73 games and beat the 95-96 Chicago Bulls best regular season record of 72 wins. As it currently stands, Golden State needs to win 5 out of its last 7 games to pull off this feat. Which leads to lots of fun hedging opportunities.
There are only 4 games I can potentially see them losing:
vs Celtics (which is tonight)
The Blazers are a competent team and Lillard is one of the best PGs in the league. But the game is in GSW where they (and San Antonio) are undefeated at home. Which is nuts, considering only 2 teams in NBA history have gone 40-1 at home (the 86 Celtics and the 96 Bulls), never mind undefeated. The line on both GSW and San Antonio going undefeated at home for the rest of the season (regular season and playoffs) is +700, for those wondering.
One hedge I am taking tonight is the Celtics. They have Jae Crowder back, the best coach in the league, and a team which can score against the Warriors. They have lost 4 in a row to the Warriors, but each time doing so by 5 points or less. They covered when (Klay Thompson-less) GSW came to Boston, losing in double overtime. I expect this game to be super competitive and believe the Celtics will cover the 12.5 points (-115). I am also using some of my hedge cash to put the line in a teaser with the over at 222, as well as the +820 money line. This will be a fun game tonight and it’s one of the few times I’ll recommend watching a regular season NBA game all year.
The other two potential losses on the GSW schedule are vs the San Antonio Spurs, who are having an awesome season which has gone under the radar with GSW’s success (which Greg Popovich must love as he subscribes to the Bill Belichick School of Media Attention). The Spurs are 5 games behind GSW for home court throughout the playoffs….so barring a GSW mini losing streak (neither team has lost back-to-back games all year…no team has ever done that in NBA history, and this year *2* may do so!!!!111), there’s no reason for Popovich, known to rest his starters, history or whatever else be damned, to come out “balls out” vs the Warriors in those two games. They already beat the Warriors at home earlier in 2016. But will he actually play his guys to try and beat GSW to thwart history, a la the NY Giants tried to do at home vs the NE Patriots in 2007 in week 17? Time will tell (and we’ll certainly be reading the beat writers in SA to find out on gameday just how he proceeds).
BOXING BONUS: Adrien Broner vs Ashley Theophane Over 8.5 Rounds -320
I’ll see if I can add the MGM Sportsbook header back though
Quick sure bets for Mayweather vs Berto on Saturday Night:
Over Rounds 11.5 – 240
Fight goes the Distance – 205
Floyd picked this fight so he could run around Berto for 12 rounds and get a quick decision to match Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. Berto has a good chin, and in his last loss got knocked down twice and was able to finish the fight, losing in a decision. Floyd has immaculate cardio, an underrated chin, and precision defensive boxing that allows him to manage how the fight goes. The only worry is that Berto “goes for it” and opens his chin to a counter……but Floyd’s power is his really his only weakness (which is why he fights the way he does; smart really).
The last two guys Mayweather KO’d were Ricky “Fatton” Hatton (who probably killed himself to make weight, hence why he ran out of gas by the 8th round) and Victor Ortiz (who Floyd sucker punched…”legally”). Berto is too tough for that stuff and I foresee these guys holding onto each other for 12 rounds like they are on prom night. Mayweather “Overs” have hit 5 fights in a row.
Mayweather is +170 to win by KO, if you are curious and want to hedge.
Boring fights make for boring decisions…..but padding one’s bankroll is exciting enough!
BONUS: Swansea FC +170
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson +225
Bader vs Davis goes the Distance -270
Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios by Decision +230
Over Rounds -10.5 (-155)
Apologies for the late post, but you’re not missing anything. Zero plays or potential plays today. We were 2-0 yesterday making up for an 0-3 NFL week. The numbers on the Buffalo game were all over the place but settled firmly into the range we were looking for. They made things difficult blowing a 3-1 lead with 9 minutes remaining but won the shootout, as did Calgary. As a hockey fan, the shootout and loser point are awful, but for gambling it’s great.
NHL 3-3 +1.8
NFL 4-7 -2.51
MLB Regular Season Closed at a disappointing 41-40 +3.72 Playoffs are 1-0 +1.5 :)
Sharks/Islanders should be an excellent game tomorrow.
NCAA Hoops Totals are 6-3 +2.7
NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 14-8 +11.27
NFL: 11-8 +3.72
Any plays will get posted below much later.
Plays for Tuesday:
NHL: Carolina +140 @ Washington
NCAAB: Colorado St. +2.5
Another winning day yesterday as only Washington was a loser. That’s two weeks in a row they have come up as a play and completely stunk. I’m honestly not sure how I will handle them if they come up as a play again in the next week or two. Houston was also an easy cover yesterday and they probably should have won outright. Atlanta required some incompetence by Buffalo but were a good play getting 4 or more points.
I hope someone has been following the hockey plays I have been listing as they’re now 7 for the last 8 and well up on the season.
Nothing in any sports tonight. Updates on lots of things in the morning.
Good day overall yesterday as Washington was the only loser of the four plays. Columbus cruised 6-0 and both unders hit, though in the Syracuse game, it was only by a single point. I need to change my model very slightly to account for the possibility of overtime based on the point spread (closer spread = higher likelihood of OT). It’s safer to play an under in a game like OSU and American, I just need to figure out by how much.
Totals are not yet out for college hoops as that’s the only sport really going today. NHL and College Football have single likely ungambleable games.
NCAA Hoops Totals are 5-1 +3.9
NCAA Football: 10-9 +0.53
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 11-8 +7.27
UPDATE: Single hoops total for tonight. Cal/Syracuse UNDER 135
NFL: 10-7 +3.77
Not much doing for me the past week. Kudos to Pat for running the liveblog for an impressive 24 hours. I will attempt to get in on betting basketball at some point. My current spreadsheet model is pretty garbage and I’m having a hard time getting old point spread data imported, so anything for now is going to be testing more than anything else.
In housekeeping, NFL and NCAA turned out to be mediocre after winners all around on Thursday and our NHL play was a loser as well. There were no hockey plays on Monday or Tuesday, and none again today despite all the teams being in action.
NFL 7-4 +1.91
NFL Teasers 1-2 -1.2
NCAA 6-8 -2.37
NHL 7-6 +3.56