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CFL and Euro 2016 Leans
Posting my Euro 2016 leans for Saturday as I won’t be able to do them tomorrow as I will be at Foxwoods for the $400 PPC Multiflight NLHE tournament.
Wales -105
Wales drew Northern Ireland, so this will be a contested darby of sorts but N.Ireland is the lowest ranked team in the tournament and only scored 2 goals vs a Ukrainian side with a swiss cheese defense. They will pack it in and make it tough on the Dragons, but I expect Wales to pull it out (that’s what she said) in the end. I also like the 1-0 exacta, with Bale scoring the goal (I am kicking myself at not taking him as Golden Goal scorer at 18-to-1. It’s basically down to him and Spain’s Morata).
Croatia +165 and Over 2 (-105)
Croatia is not the most fit, but man have they looked impressive in the final third even with their bench guys. Just a well run, clinical operation and a dark horse pick to win it all, especially if Modric can get back to being somewhat fit. Their opponent, Portugal, has more individual talent, but in each of their games they have gone asleep at the wheel defensively, as well as commit dumb turnovers and fouls in their own end. I am surprised the Over is only at 2 with low juice; I’d say it should be 2.5 with higher juice so we are getting value here. This should be a fun, open game.
CFL:
Winnipeg -2 (-110)
First of all, h/t to buffaloholdem over at Twitter for his CFL thoughts. It’s become quite a place to find lots of value. Who knew 3 down football was so profitable!
Also if you are betting CFL this season you can check out my handicapping video from last year: https://t.co/yRdUBXOnWh
— buffaloholdem (@buffaloholdem) June 23, 2016
There’s DFS CFL now as well (and yes, rouges *do* count) so he’s a good source if you need any tips before places down your bets.
Here’s another nugget of CFL wisdom for the year:
#CFL teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets have gone 414-355 ATS (53.8%) since 2005. (h/t @Bet_Labs)
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) June 22, 2016
Pacquiao vs Bradley 3
Did any of you know that tonight is Manny Pacquiao’s last fight? Me neither.
Should be a boring fight vs Tim Bradley, and I don’t expect anything too crazy between these two. Manny’s lost his punching power (*sneeze sneeze*) and he’s coming off losing all his sponsors because he was caught saying he hates gays in an interview. Tim Bradley’s last 10 out of 11 fights went to a decision, and the last guy he just TKO’d, Brandon Rios, is one of those guys who should have retired 5 fights ago. Both of the previous fights with these two, went to decision.
Bet this yawn fest and pay rent tomorrow:
Pacquiao vs Bradley FIGHT GOES TO DECISION -350
NCAA Title Monday
The madness is over and I am sad, did pretty good this year. Gonna ride UNC tonight -2,5 (-105). Villanova is a fun, good team…..I just think UNC has too much depth and talent and rebounding. Plus this could be Roy Williams’ last game.
Politics BONUS:
Sanders -300 to win WI (this is now at -800 at some books…he is crushing polls in WI).
GS Warriors thoughts
As I noted back in November, I took the Warriors at +310 to win 73 games and beat the 95-96 Chicago Bulls best regular season record of 72 wins. As it currently stands, Golden State needs to win 5 out of its last 7 games to pull off this feat. Which leads to lots of fun hedging opportunities.
There are only 4 games I can potentially see them losing:
vs Celtics (which is tonight)
vs Blazers
at Spurs
vs Spurs
The Blazers are a competent team and Lillard is one of the best PGs in the league. But the game is in GSW where they (and San Antonio) are undefeated at home. Which is nuts, considering only 2 teams in NBA history have gone 40-1 at home (the 86 Celtics and the 96 Bulls), never mind undefeated. The line on both GSW and San Antonio going undefeated at home for the rest of the season (regular season and playoffs) is +700, for those wondering.
One hedge I am taking tonight is the Celtics. They have Jae Crowder back, the best coach in the league, and a team which can score against the Warriors. They have lost 4 in a row to the Warriors, but each time doing so by 5 points or less. They covered when (Klay Thompson-less) GSW came to Boston, losing in double overtime. I expect this game to be super competitive and believe the Celtics will cover the 12.5 points (-115). I am also using some of my hedge cash to put the line in a teaser with the over at 222, as well as the +820 money line. This will be a fun game tonight and it’s one of the few times I’ll recommend watching a regular season NBA game all year.
The other two potential losses on the GSW schedule are vs the San Antonio Spurs, who are having an awesome season which has gone under the radar with GSW’s success (which Greg Popovich must love as he subscribes to the Bill Belichick School of Media Attention). The Spurs are 5 games behind GSW for home court throughout the playoffs….so barring a GSW mini losing streak (neither team has lost back-to-back games all year…no team has ever done that in NBA history, and this year *2* may do so!!!!111), there’s no reason for Popovich, known to rest his starters, history or whatever else be damned, to come out “balls out” vs the Warriors in those two games. They already beat the Warriors at home earlier in 2016. But will he actually play his guys to try and beat GSW to thwart history, a la the NY Giants tried to do at home vs the NE Patriots in 2007 in week 17? Time will tell (and we’ll certainly be reading the beat writers in SA to find out on gameday just how he proceeds).
BOXING BONUS: Adrien Broner vs Ashley Theophane Over 8.5 Rounds -320
We’ve Gone Minimalist
I’ll see if I can add the MGM Sportsbook header back though
Mayweather vs Berto
Quick sure bets for Mayweather vs Berto on Saturday Night:
Over Rounds 11.5 – 240
Fight goes the Distance – 205
Floyd picked this fight so he could run around Berto for 12 rounds and get a quick decision to match Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. Berto has a good chin, and in his last loss got knocked down twice and was able to finish the fight, losing in a decision. Floyd has immaculate cardio, an underrated chin, and precision defensive boxing that allows him to manage how the fight goes. The only worry is that Berto “goes for it” and opens his chin to a counter……but Floyd’s power is his really his only weakness (which is why he fights the way he does; smart really).
The last two guys Mayweather KO’d were Ricky “Fatton” Hatton (who probably killed himself to make weight, hence why he ran out of gas by the 8th round) and Victor Ortiz (who Floyd sucker punched…”legally”). Berto is too tough for that stuff and I foresee these guys holding onto each other for 12 rounds like they are on prom night. Mayweather “Overs” have hit 5 fights in a row.
Mayweather is +170 to win by KO, if you are curious and want to hedge.
Boring fights make for boring decisions…..but padding one’s bankroll is exciting enough!
BONUS: Swansea FC +170
UFC+ Boxing plays
UFC:
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson +225
Bader vs Davis goes the Distance -270
Boxing:
Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios by Decision +230
Over Rounds -10.5 (-155)
Update Wednesday
Apologies for the late post, but you’re not missing anything. Zero plays or potential plays today. We were 2-0 yesterday making up for an 0-3 NFL week. The numbers on the Buffalo game were all over the place but settled firmly into the range we were looking for. They made things difficult blowing a 3-1 lead with 9 minutes remaining but won the shootout, as did Calgary. As a hockey fan, the shootout and loser point are awful, but for gambling it’s great.
NHL 3-3 +1.8
NFL 4-7 -2.51
MLB Regular Season Closed at a disappointing 41-40 +3.72 Playoffs are 1-0 +1.5 :)
Sharks/Islanders should be an excellent game tomorrow.
Update Tuesday
NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 5-5-2 -0.5
NCAA Hoops Totals are 6-3 +2.7
NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 14-8 +11.27
NFL: 11-8 +3.72
Any plays will get posted below much later.
Plays for Tuesday:
NHL: Carolina +140 @ Washington
NCAAB: Colorado St. +2.5
Monday
Another winning day yesterday as only Washington was a loser. That’s two weeks in a row they have come up as a play and completely stunk. I’m honestly not sure how I will handle them if they come up as a play again in the next week or two. Houston was also an easy cover yesterday and they probably should have won outright. Atlanta required some incompetence by Buffalo but were a good play getting 4 or more points.
I hope someone has been following the hockey plays I have been listing as they’re now 7 for the last 8 and well up on the season.
Nothing in any sports tonight. Updates on lots of things in the morning.
