Quick sure bets for Mayweather vs Berto on Saturday Night:
Over Rounds 11.5 – 240
Fight goes the Distance – 205
Floyd picked this fight so he could run around Berto for 12 rounds and get a quick decision to match Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. Berto has a good chin, and in his last loss got knocked down twice and was able to finish the fight, losing in a decision. Floyd has immaculate cardio, an underrated chin, and precision defensive boxing that allows him to manage how the fight goes. The only worry is that Berto “goes for it” and opens his chin to a counter……but Floyd’s power is his really his only weakness (which is why he fights the way he does; smart really).
The last two guys Mayweather KO’d were Ricky “Fatton” Hatton (who probably killed himself to make weight, hence why he ran out of gas by the 8th round) and Victor Ortiz (who Floyd sucker punched…”legally”). Berto is too tough for that stuff and I foresee these guys holding onto each other for 12 rounds like they are on prom night. Mayweather “Overs” have hit 5 fights in a row.
Mayweather is +170 to win by KO, if you are curious and want to hedge.
Boring fights make for boring decisions…..but padding one’s bankroll is exciting enough!
BONUS: Swansea FC +170
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson +225
Bader vs Davis goes the Distance -270
Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios by Decision +230
Over Rounds -10.5 (-155)
Apologies for the late post, but you’re not missing anything. Zero plays or potential plays today. We were 2-0 yesterday making up for an 0-3 NFL week. The numbers on the Buffalo game were all over the place but settled firmly into the range we were looking for. They made things difficult blowing a 3-1 lead with 9 minutes remaining but won the shootout, as did Calgary. As a hockey fan, the shootout and loser point are awful, but for gambling it’s great.
NHL 3-3 +1.8
NFL 4-7 -2.51
MLB Regular Season Closed at a disappointing 41-40 +3.72 Playoffs are 1-0 +1.5 :)
Sharks/Islanders should be an excellent game tomorrow.
NCAA Hoops Totals are 6-3 +2.7
NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 14-8 +11.27
NFL: 11-8 +3.72
Any plays will get posted below much later.
Plays for Tuesday:
NHL: Carolina +140 @ Washington
NCAAB: Colorado St. +2.5
Another winning day yesterday as only Washington was a loser. That’s two weeks in a row they have come up as a play and completely stunk. I’m honestly not sure how I will handle them if they come up as a play again in the next week or two. Houston was also an easy cover yesterday and they probably should have won outright. Atlanta required some incompetence by Buffalo but were a good play getting 4 or more points.
I hope someone has been following the hockey plays I have been listing as they’re now 7 for the last 8 and well up on the season.
Nothing in any sports tonight. Updates on lots of things in the morning.
Good day overall yesterday as Washington was the only loser of the four plays. Columbus cruised 6-0 and both unders hit, though in the Syracuse game, it was only by a single point. I need to change my model very slightly to account for the possibility of overtime based on the point spread (closer spread = higher likelihood of OT). It’s safer to play an under in a game like OSU and American, I just need to figure out by how much.
Totals are not yet out for college hoops as that’s the only sport really going today. NHL and College Football have single likely ungambleable games.
NCAA Hoops Totals are 5-1 +3.9
NCAA Football: 10-9 +0.53
NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2
NHL 11-8 +7.27
UPDATE: Single hoops total for tonight. Cal/Syracuse UNDER 135
NFL: 10-7 +3.77
Not much doing for me the past week. Kudos to Pat for running the liveblog for an impressive 24 hours. I will attempt to get in on betting basketball at some point. My current spreadsheet model is pretty garbage and I’m having a hard time getting old point spread data imported, so anything for now is going to be testing more than anything else.
In housekeeping, NFL and NCAA turned out to be mediocre after winners all around on Thursday and our NHL play was a loser as well. There were no hockey plays on Monday or Tuesday, and none again today despite all the teams being in action.
NFL 7-4 +1.91
NFL Teasers 1-2 -1.2
NCAA 6-8 -2.37
NHL 7-6 +3.56
No plays in hockey or tackle football and nothing even close. All winners yesterday.
NCAA 6-7 -1.34
NFL 6-3 +2.01
NHL 7-5 +4.56
Several games look promising for tomorrow’s college slate but NFL is not promising. Nothing much out there at last check. Not that a 1-0 week is anything to be ashamed of :)
It’s about 100 degrees outside and there are zero major sporting events going on. 0-2 in minor plays yesterday and I’m debating whether to count them on my record for the season. I really, really want to take New England away to Colorado in MLS tonight, but I have a variable that is showing on my spreadsheet which is a big giant negative so I have to pass. There’s no baseball tomorrow either for anyone wondering because a few years ago some teams started bitching and moaning that they only got three days off while other teams got four, so now everyone starts again on Friday and the World Series ends in November. NFL win totals and futures are generally up everywhere, but I’ll leave that to Pat to cover as I haven’t read or looked at anything as I’ve been building all of these baseball and soccer models since January. And by models I mean spreadsheets because that’s how I roll.
|Thu 2/28||Who will be the next Pope? (all-in)|
|03:00 AM||1051 Marc Ouellet||+485|
|1052 Peter Turkson||+304|
|1053 Francis Arinze||+1005|
|1054 Angelo Scola||+480|
|1055 Leonardo Sandri||+1241|
|1056 Gianfranco Ravasi||+1634|
|1057 Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga||+1634|
|1058 Angelo Bagnasco||+1417|
|1059 Jean-Louis Pierre Tauran||+1789|
|1060 Tarcisio Bertone||+394|