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Joshua vs Klitschko

Joshua vs Klitschko

Over Rounds 8.5 -115

In what is the most anticipated heavyweight bout in quite some time, the UK’s Anthony Joshua (-250) has a chance to go from wonder prospect to the baddest man on the planet vs veteran Wladimir Klitschko (+200) today at Wembley Stadium. Klitschko, coming off a decision loss to Tyson “I love cocaine” Fury, has always been known to be a prudent fighter. Joshua is a KO artist, but he’s never faced anyone with the defensive boxing of Klitschko. Klitschko often has a stigma of putting on bad fights because of his methodical approach, and his ability to hold guys and not allow them to find their jabbing range. I foresee this one going past 9 rounds, and maybe even the distance, as Joshua has yet to fight a boxer of Klitschko’s chin and pedigree. I fancy Joshua however in a decision (+500), as Klitschko is literally on the Back 9 at 17 and is on his way out…..but his iron chin and guile should see him through to the judge’s scorecards.

NHL:

Senators vs Rangers Over 5 (+105)

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Election 2016 PredictIt Thoughts

The election season is almost finally over (and thank god). A lot of folks ask me if I vote in elections; I don’t. I prefer to bet on them, that way when the result that I desire actually wins, I also actually benefit from it.

There are quite often some free cinch bets in politics as well; Lou once made money taking the side of a politician who was running up against a dead guy. Free money galore, although you usually are taking chalk so the juice along side that can get pretty steep. But our broken political system is pretty easy to predict these days, free money opportunities are abound.

So there’s this site that is similiar to InTrade, called PredictIt. PredictIt is a real-money political prediction market, a stock market for politics. As Lou has noted, the juice on this site is higher than the beloved InTrade from 2012, but it still gives us some opportunity to win some free money. The idea is you either pick an outcome (either Y/N, or GOP/DNC for example) and buy a “share” from $0.01 to $0.99 based on the market of other bidding punters. If your result comes in, then PredictIt pays out the rest of the share upwards to a dollar. So say you pick Hillary Clinton to win the Presidential Race at $0.75 a share. If she wins the election, you get paid out $1.00 for a $0.25 profit on each share.

Here are my leans for this election:

Massachusetts to Legalize Marijuana at $0.80

This opened at $0.88, then went down to $0.80 when the polling wasn’t looking so good at the end of last year. This is now at $0.94, and rising as lately the polling has been very strong for the initiative (last one I saw in the Globe was 59% for). Populist candidates and referendums are the story of 2016 politics as we saw in Britain and BREXIT. The only people who are spending money against this in MA are the churches (which no one goes to anymore), police chiefs, old white people in office, and rich old white people who hate life like Sheldon Adelson, owner of the Sands casino. A lot like when Barack Obama told UK voters they could be put “on the back of the queue” for trade if BREXIT were to happen, I think anytime these governors and establishment people come out against a law like this, it just helps the initiative even more, despite them getting outspent 3 to 1. Everyone I know is voting YES on 4, are for a myriad of reasons, especially the social justice angle. That is why decriminalization passed in 2008 here in the state; I actually made a bet on a spread that it would pass by a 52/48 margin. It passed 60/40, only losing 3 counties. I expect the same thing here, as pro pot is now in the positive for most demos that aren’t left leaning young people. Libertarians and even some social conservatives have now come around on the idea, very much like how gay marriage went from a resounding “NO” in 2004 to now being passed in most of the states.


California to Legalize Marijuana at $0.84

Same ideology here for this bet; this is now at $0.94 as well. Of course the land of Cheech and Chong, Snoop Dogg, and Wiz Khalifa was always a favorite to pass this initiative. The only people really against it are CA’s Mormon community, police and authorities, and prison companies. Not exactly a lot you want to side with on any issue. Also, voter turnout for Hillary Clinton is expected to be high (pun intended) for the state, including Latinos and Tech types who often are fiscally conservative, but socially liberal. This is a big boost for legal pot to pass in CA, and ironically, Hillary Clinton (who is against pot) may have pot to thank for to clinch the state and voter turnout as those who tend ot vote for legal weed tend to lean left, even for a historically bad campaign like hers.

What Will Voter Turnout Be for the Presidential Election?

135,000,000 to 139,999,999 – NO at $0.80
125,000,000 to 129,999,999 – YES at $0.18

Percentage (via a sportsbook) Under 58% -115

In case you haven’t heard, this are the two most unliked candidates in the history of the race. Considering Mitt “Fail” Romney ran in 2012, that is saying something. Voter turnout for the last race was around 44% during the 2014 midterms, and even though this election has had so many media orgs promoting it left and right, I still think the overall voting population is going to sit this one home and a) assume Hillary is going to win or b) refuse to vote for her at all. The demos that plan to sit home: black people, low income people, and people under the age of 45, especially millennials and younger white people. Also, on a sad note, certain states have made it very difficult to vote with strict ID laws, understaffing causing long lines, and even voter suppression. This sadly is part of my lean on the under, so when you ship this bet, do yourself a favor and donate to an organization that goes against those efforts.

Ironically, we could hit the most Latinos to ever vote in an “open” election (meaning no incumbents), ever AND also hit 2000’s low of 50.3%. The last 3 elections barely hit 55%, so I like the under at 0.58% as well.

voter-turnout_0

Will a 3rd Party win a State? at $0.35

I have no idea who Evan McMullin is, but all of the prediction sites give him a better than 30% chance to win his home state of Utah. Libertarian Gary Johnson is a former Governor of New Mexico and is always live to hit that state, he’s also polled well in Alaska and will probably get 4-5% of the vote. In an election where voters are looking for alternative, 3rd party voting will probably see it’s biggest boost since Ralph Nader in 2000 and Ross Perot in 1996.

Overall POTUS Prediciton:

Clinton (-550)

If you wanted to bet on Hillary, the chance to do so at a good price was when she was struggling with Bernie earlier in the year. I think she got down to -140 at one point. Although Bill Simmons has her in a parlay with the Pats to win the AFC East, so that could be a curse of course.

Trump may cover the spread and make it a sweat into Wednesday, but I think Hillary on the low end get 288 electoral votes (I think it will be on the lower end, but I am just rooting for a fun sweat), and her ceiling is around 313 to 319 (depending on if McMullin wins Utah).

Random side props:

Winner of these states in the presidential contest:
FL: Trump
NV: Hillary
NC: Trump
OH: Trump
IA: Trump
CO: Hillary
NH: Hillary
VA: Hillary
PA: Hillary
AZ: Trump
GA: Trump
UT: McMullin

Final Electoral College Score
Clinton: 288
Trump: 243
Other: McMullin 6

Percentage (round to nearest 0.1%) of the national popular vote won by:
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 2%

Winner of the Senate race in each of these states (OK to name party only not candidate):
NH: Republican
NV: Republican
IN: Democrat
MO: Democrat
FL: Republican
NC: Republican
WI: Democrat
PA: Democrat
CO: Democrat

Control of the Senate (includes independents who caucus with and will vote for leadership of that party):
Democratic: 50
Republican: 50

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MLB Monday

MLB:

Giants vs Cubs Under 6 (-110)

CFL BONUS:

Montreal vs Saskatchewan Over 52 (-105)

Podcast #2 coming soon; check out this parlay!

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CFL and Euro 2016 Leans

Posting my Euro 2016 leans for Saturday as I won’t be able to do them tomorrow as I will be at Foxwoods for the $400 PPC Multiflight NLHE tournament.

Wales -105

Wales drew Northern Ireland, so this will be a contested darby of sorts but N.Ireland is the lowest ranked team in the tournament and only scored 2 goals vs a Ukrainian side with a swiss cheese defense. They will pack it in and make it tough on the Dragons, but I expect Wales to pull it out (that’s what she said) in the end. I also like the 1-0 exacta, with Bale scoring the goal (I am kicking myself at not taking him as Golden Goal scorer at 18-to-1. It’s basically down to him and Spain’s Morata).

Croatia +165 and Over 2 (-105)

Croatia is not the most fit, but man have they looked impressive in the final third even with their bench guys. Just a well run, clinical operation and a dark horse pick to win it all, especially if Modric can get back to being somewhat fit. Their opponent, Portugal, has more individual talent, but in each of their games they have gone asleep at the wheel defensively, as well as commit dumb turnovers and fouls in their own end. I am surprised the Over is only at 2 with low juice; I’d say it should be 2.5 with higher juice so we are getting value here. This should be a fun, open game.

CFL:

Winnipeg -2 (-110)

First of all, h/t to buffaloholdem over at Twitter for his CFL thoughts. It’s become quite a place to find lots of value. Who knew 3 down football was so profitable!

There’s DFS CFL now as well (and yes, rouges *do* count) so he’s a good source if you need any tips before places down your bets.

Here’s another nugget of CFL wisdom for the year:

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Pacquiao vs Bradley 3

Did any of you know that tonight is Manny Pacquiao’s last fight? Me neither.

Should be a boring fight vs Tim Bradley, and I don’t expect anything too crazy between these two. Manny’s lost his punching power (*sneeze sneeze*) and he’s coming off losing all his sponsors because he was caught saying he hates gays in an interview. Tim Bradley’s last 10 out of 11 fights went to a decision, and the last guy he just TKO’d, Brandon Rios, is one of those guys who should have retired 5 fights ago. Both of the previous fights with these two, went to decision.

Bet this yawn fest and pay rent tomorrow:


Pacquiao vs Bradley FIGHT GOES TO DECISION -350

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NCAA Title Monday

The madness is over and I am sad, did pretty good this year. Gonna ride UNC tonight -2,5 (-105). Villanova is a fun, good team…..I just think UNC has too much depth and talent and rebounding. Plus this could be Roy Williams’ last game.

Politics BONUS:

Sanders -300 to win WI (this is now at -800 at some books…he is crushing polls in WI).

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GS Warriors thoughts

As I noted back in November, I took the Warriors at +310 to win 73 games and beat the 95-96 Chicago Bulls best regular season record of 72 wins. As it currently stands, Golden State needs to win 5 out of its last 7 games to pull off this feat. Which leads to lots of fun hedging opportunities.

There are only 4 games I can potentially see them losing:

vs Celtics (which is tonight)
vs Blazers
at Spurs
vs Spurs

The Blazers are a competent team and Lillard is one of the best PGs in the league. But the game is in GSW where they (and San Antonio) are undefeated at home. Which is nuts, considering only 2 teams in NBA history have gone 40-1 at home (the 86 Celtics and the 96 Bulls), never mind undefeated. The line on both GSW and San Antonio going undefeated at home for the rest of the season (regular season and playoffs) is +700, for those wondering.

One hedge I am taking tonight is the Celtics. They have Jae Crowder back, the best coach in the league, and a team which can score against the Warriors. They have lost 4 in a row to the Warriors, but each time doing so by 5 points or less. They covered when (Klay Thompson-less) GSW came to Boston, losing in double overtime. I expect this game to be super competitive and believe the Celtics will cover the 12.5 points (-115). I am also using some of my hedge cash to put the line in a teaser with the over at 222, as well as the +820 money line. This will be a fun game tonight and it’s one of the few times I’ll recommend watching a regular season NBA game all year.

The other two potential losses on the GSW schedule are vs the San Antonio Spurs, who are having an awesome season which has gone under the radar with GSW’s success (which Greg Popovich must love as he subscribes to the Bill Belichick School of Media Attention). The Spurs are 5 games behind GSW for home court throughout the playoffs….so barring a GSW mini losing streak (neither team has lost back-to-back games all year…no team has ever done that in NBA history, and this year *2* may do so!!!!111), there’s no reason for Popovich, known to rest his starters, history or whatever else be damned, to come out “balls out” vs the Warriors in those two games. They already beat the Warriors at home earlier in 2016. But will he actually play his guys to try and beat GSW to thwart history, a la the NY Giants tried to do at home vs the NE Patriots in 2007 in week 17? Time will tell (and we’ll certainly be reading the beat writers in SA to find out on gameday just how he proceeds).

BOXING BONUS: Adrien Broner vs Ashley Theophane Over 8.5 Rounds -320

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We’ve Gone Minimalist

I’ll see if I can add the MGM Sportsbook header back though

Mayweather vs Berto

Quick sure bets for Mayweather vs Berto on Saturday Night:

Over Rounds 11.5 – 240

Fight goes the Distance – 205

Floyd picked this fight so he could run around Berto for 12 rounds and get a quick decision to match Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. Berto has a good chin, and in his last loss got knocked down twice and was able to finish the fight, losing in a decision. Floyd has immaculate cardio, an underrated chin, and precision defensive boxing that allows him to manage how the fight goes. The only worry is that Berto “goes for it” and opens his chin to a counter……but Floyd’s power is his really his only weakness (which is why he fights the way he does; smart really).

The last two guys Mayweather KO’d were Ricky “Fatton” Hatton (who probably killed himself to make weight, hence why he ran out of gas by the 8th round) and Victor Ortiz (who Floyd sucker punched…”legally”). Berto is too tough for that stuff and I foresee these guys holding onto each other for 12 rounds like they are on prom night. Mayweather “Overs” have hit 5 fights in a row.

Mayweather is +170 to win by KO, if you are curious and want to hedge.

Boring fights make for boring decisions…..but padding one’s bankroll is exciting enough!

BONUS: Swansea FC +170

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UFC+ Boxing plays

UFC:

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson +225

Bader vs Davis goes the Distance -270

Boxing:

Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios by Decision +230

Over Rounds -10.5 (-155)