Miracle Covers

Super Bowl 50 Preview

Carolina Panthers (17-1) vs Denver Broncos (14-4)

The story going into this game is two fold: the ascension of Cam Newton, and a possibly historic Denver defense. Ironically, the QB on the other side of the ball (Peyton Manning), isn’t the big story coming into this game, despite it most likely being his last game of a Hall of Fame career (he is +400 at 0.5 to throw a pass next year for those wondering). One could argue the Broncos defense got here in spite of Peyton Manning, instead of the other way around which it was for most of his career, especially with the Colts.

On this blog, we shit on the majority of these quarterbacks constantly. We’ve made money betting against some really bad QB play in the last decade, which is still pretty bad despite the rules helping the QBs out more. A McCown can throw for 300+ yards and a 112.7 QB rating vs a Super Bowl caliber defense in Carolina. Yet we still have Brian Hoyer starting playoff games.

There are really 6 “money” QBs out there who are really good and can win despite their team being bad around them: Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Brady, Wilson, and Luck. 5 out of those 6 have won a title. But that has been stagnant for the last few years, and it would be refreshing to see another come into the club. I think Cam Newton is that guy. He won a title in college. He was a Heisman Trophy winner and a #1 pick. He’s likely this year’s MVP. He’s grown and matured into a solid game manager with a killer cadence and is always involved in the game and getting his team’s spirits up. The guy has become a leader now and combine that with his amazing athletic ability and size, I just think now is *his* time.

He has this incredible year despite losing Kelvin Benjamin, which I thought was such a devastating injury I jumped to bet Carolina’s under (8.5) before the year (oops)! Ted Ginn is catching TD passes week after week (and still dropping them, too….him to drop a pass is -130 for those wondering). Jericho Cotchery is catching passes for him. It’s like my 2007 fantasy team all over again. And still yet, Cam has had a career year and Carolina has been the best and most consistent team in football.

If Jonathan Stewart was healthy all year long, they might of won all of their games before this one because their schedule was so soft. They are 90% healthy. They have the best LBs. They have the best RB. They have the 2nd best TE and OL. They have the best CB in form all year. They’ve been the second best ATS all year (Minnesota was #1). Even Ron Rivera has coached well, and perfectly managed Jonathan Stewart’s health down the stretch. I just think that we are looking at an all-time team and we may have missed that because, on average, the quality of the football in the NFL this year was pretty shitty.

The main question is: WILL THEY COVER THE SPREAD THOUGH? I see this game in two ways: either Carolina gets up 24-0 early and crushes the Broncos, or Carolina blows a lead late and Denver miracle covers. I don’t think Denver can win the game because of the edge at QB, despite Denver having the better front 7 overall.

Denver’s defense has been historic in terms of passing yards allowed and sacks. Lou thinks they are the best we’ve seen in the modern era since the 2000 Ravens (although I say they are 4th behind the 2000 Ravens, the 2002 Bucs, and the 2013 Seahawks). Their team was really built to defeat teams like the Patriots, the Packers…..teams with various skill guys in the short controlled passing game. They held Green Bay to 77 yards passing! However, in 3 games vs “mobile” QBs this year: Kansas City (twice) and Minnesota, offenses averaged 122 yards per game and 1 rushing TD per game. QB’s averaged around 24 yards running a game. And the Chiefs especially used their RBs in the passing game, with some guy named Charcandrick West catching 3 passes for 92 yards and a TD. The Patriots hit the Broncos for big plays to their RBs in both of their games, and should have called more (but when you have Branden Bolden and James White, I can see why they didn’t call more of those plays).

When you have a mobile QB who can also actually throw, he is hard to sack as well as his running ability “stretches” out the front 7, exerting pressure on good defensive “gap” discipline. It’s like in soccer how a good passing team can widen you out, or in basketball has a great shooting team opens up the middle of the floor. I just think that Denver has problems with these types of schemes because the DEs like Ware and Miller want to go up field to a spot. They aren’t the “hybrid” type of ends like NE or Seattle has, and can be at times undisciplined in containing the pocket. Add to the fact that Carolina has the best RB stable in the game, so those same ends and outside LBs have to honor that in the zone read scheme too. I expect a lot of reverses, triple option play action, and wide passes to the flats and wheel routes from Carolina as they hope to catch Denver “looking” in the backfield spying on Cam. The other adjustment I see by Denver is to blitz a shit ton….but that is risky as if they don’t get there, Cam can escape and run. It’s one thing for the “rush” to get to the QB…but with Cam, it’s another thing to “get there”, as Lou would say.

Denver has excellent CBs and should have no issue covering the average at best WR core of Carolina. But I just think because of the quarterback’s dynamic play ability, the dam could eventually break, especially to someone lower on the depth chart, like a Corey Brown (who caught 7 balls last game, and 11 the game before).

The only other worry by Carolina: they kinda blow second half leads. Taking Denver in the 2nd half, whatever the number, isn’t a bad play and hedge. But, another reason I love the Panthers in this matchup: I get to bet against Peyton Manning in a big game. One of my best Super Bowls was in 2009 Colts vs Saints. I expect plenty of Manning face, even if this is his last hurrah and that can be galvanizing for a team (see: 2012 Ravens, 2010 Celtics, 2015 Juventus) for a run towards a title game.

Denver also covered in the “Madden 16” simulation, losing 28-24.

So, the pick for me: Carolina -6 at +105. Denver may have an all-time defense, but Carolina has an all-time team.

Now for the props:

Peyton Manning Total INTs thrown Over 0.5 -225

One of my favorites.

Ted Ginn Jr Total Rushing Yards Over -5.5 +110

We’ll see a reverse or two by Carolina to keep the Denver edge guys honest vs Cam’s Zone Read attack.

Total Receiving Yards Mike Tolbert Over 7.5 -115
Total Receptions Over 1.5 Jonathan Stewart EVEN
Jonathan Stewart Anytime TD EVEN

Bullish RBs for Carolina.

How Many Successful Field Goals in the Game? 2 +325
Total Successful Field Goals Over 3.5 +130

Good FG kickers for both teams.

First Scoring Play of the Game: Panthers Safety +2000

I really should bet the “safety” angle every year. I remember the joy in his face from Lou’s boy “Cheese” as he hit this bet in 2013:

Will the Panthers score in every quarter? Yes +215

Total Receptions for Corey Brown Over 2.5 -150
Total Yards Corey Brown Over 39.5 -115

I like Corey Brown’s matchup vs a banged up Chris Harris Jr. I also think he and Cam have gelled nicely in the last 6 weeks of the year and has been the guy to fill some of the “production” gap lost by Kelvin Benjamin.

How Many Times will “Dab” or “Dabbing” be mentioned by the announcers? Over 2 at EVEN

I feel like I am freerolling this one, especially if Carolina and Cam get rolling.

Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge? +125

This is free money here, he’s wrong like 75% of the time!

Who will the Super Bowl QB thank first? God at +200

If you think Cam wins the MVP, also bet this one. He always thanks God first in every speech he’s ever given as his dad is a preacher. Manning will NOT thank god…he always thanks his teammates first in everything.

MVP:
Cam Newton -130 (now at -150!)
Peyton Manning +275

I bet both the QBs to win the MVP every year; I feel you’ll hit this 75% of the time in your life. Luke Kuechly at +1200 and Owen Daniels at +6600 aren’t bad “reaches” for me here….but if the Broncos *do* win, Peyton Manning will be the MVP, even if he goes 10-30 with 200 yards and 1 TD with 3 INTs.

UFC BONUS:

Jake Rosholt +135
Jake Rosholt to win by decision +150