Category: UFC

MLB, NCAA, and a UFC Parlay

MLB:

LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals Over 7.5 +105

3-1 so far this 2016 playoff.

NCAA

Miss St v Auburn Under 54.5 (-110)

Notre Dame vs NC State Under 56

UFC PARLAY:

Albert Tumenov (-240) and Michael Bisping (-250) at +101

Week 3 NFL Lines

Arizona -4 (-105) @ Buffalo

Yes, it is an early 1pm game on the road for the West Coast Arizona Cardinals….but Buffalo is reeling right now, just firing their offensive coordinator (who was the highest paid OC in all of football) and probably not having Sammy Watkins available as he is battling an injury and was just downgraded from questionable to doubtful.

Carolina -7 (-110) vs Minnesota

Minnesota will be without the following former first round picks due to injury: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Kalil, DT Sharif Floyd, and of course QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Floyd injury is the most significant; the Vikings have a hard time moving the ball as it is and Carolina can just play the inside running game much easier to win the field position battle. I just don’t see how the Vikings score enough points to keep this one close.

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110)

This one will be a yawner. The Rams best offense is their defense, and the Bucs will be without RB Doug Martin.

Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Philadelphia

I think the Eagles good start comes down to earth this week. They are a little banged up and the Pittsburgh offense is playing well. Rookie QBs also usually don’t do that well against Pittsburgh’s front 7 the first time they face them.

San Francisco +9 (-105) @ Seattle

Is Seattle 3 points better than anybody at this point? Their OL and offense is in shambles. This is also somewhat of a hedge against my 49ers under season bet (5.5 wins).

TEASER (+160):

DAL -7
MIA -10
CAR -7

CFL BONUS:

Redblacks -5.5 (-105)

UFC BONUS:

Antonio “Big Foot” Silva +385

Parlay at +780: Antonio Silva (+385), Pepey (-140), Erick Silva (+105), Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200)

NFL Week 1 Leans

Here are my leans for Week 1:

Browns +4.5 (-115) @ Philadelphia

This is now at +4. And me and Lou discussed on the podcast, we think Philadelphia is really going to stink this year, especially starting a banged up rookie QB in Week 1. They are a young team who isn’t 3 points better than anyone at the moment, nevermind the lowly Browns. Also, RGIII has looked pretty good in pre-season and with new coach and offensive guru Hue Jackson, the Browns should be able to move the ball and throw it downfield. This should be either a close, entertaining game or a close, boring game that sets the sport of American football back 5 years.

Minnesota at Tennessee Under 41 (-105)

With a second year QB (Mariota), and an old backup QB (Hill), and two teams whose wide receiving corps have an average fantasy football draft ranking of 9th round or lower, I expect alot of two and three tight end sets and an over/under of plays with 3 WR sets at 25.5 (the average NFL game, teams run around 110-125 plays). There is a hint that new MIN QB Sam Bradford might actually play in this one, despite being there for like, a week. Titans TE Delanie Walker is questionable with an illness, and he’s a big part of the Titans’ zone read playaction offense. And the game is played on natural grass. This should be the day’s most boring game.

Oakland at New Orleans Over 51 (-110)

Both teams have tremendous offensive talent, all healthy because it’s Week 1. Drew Brees, who just signed a new 2 year deal, does way better at home in the dome than he does on the road. So does his offensive teammates. New Orleans’ defense is the worst in the league, and Oakland’s is about average. This should be the most exciting game of the day.

Baltimore -3 (-115) vs Buffalo

Buffalo’s defense is missing DT Darius due to suspension and WR Sammy Watkins is banged up. They also have some questions at free safety, an important role in Rex Ryan’s scheme. From Greg Bedard below:

There is no more crucial position in Rex Ryan’s defense than the free safety, who is the nerve center for all communication and checks. Graham had his share of issues last season after converting from cornerback. Communication was a big issue for the defense last season, Ryan’s first in Buffalo, and that has to become a strength for the unit to take the next step.

I expect Baltimore to test the safeties early and often with Joe Flacco’s deep ball prowless; they also get some WRs back from injury (Perriman, Smith) they didn’t have last year. Buffalo also will have a hard time exploiting the Ravens’ weakness, CB depth, as their QB Tyrod Taylor is more of a zone read QB as supposed to a guy who can dink and dunk with precision accuracy. Also, Taylor was a Raven, so the front 7 had a good look at his running style during his time there. Betting the Ravens at home has done me well over the years, so going to stick with the trend on this one.

TEASER @ +330:

GB/JAX Over 48
Hou -6
KC -7
SEA -10.5

UFC BONUS:

Mickey Gall -300 (now at -400)

So Mickey Gall, who is 2-0 in his young career (with two submissions) faces former WWE wrestler Phil “CM Punk” Brooks this Saturday at UFC 203. I bet this the minute it came out, and as you can see, the action on Gall has poured in. It might even go to -420 (lol) before the fight. CM Punk, who has been training MMA for the last two years, has never fought a professional or amateur MMA fight and has only done a little Kempo in terms of formal martial arts training. The UFC is really only putting him out there to sell a PPV. According to MMA journalist Luke Thomas, CM Punk didn’t technically meet Ohio athletic commission’s stated requirements for licensure (yet they gave him one anyways; who says money doesn’t influence politics!). CM Punk has also had a hard time cutting weight to 170 (which he hasn’t weighed since high school!), which is always a bad sign at 37 years of age. At 23, Mickey Gall is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu from the Jim Miller camp in NJ, one known for its world class rear naked chokes and guillotines. That would be a prop to take the day of the fight (I would guess Gall to win by submission would be at around +150; I’ll probably take that too). If Mickey Gall loses this, I might retire from MMA betting as I clearly don’t know anything (or, the kid takes a paid dive and the sport is rigged).

PARLAY: Jessica Eye (-145) and Mickey Gall (-300) and Werdum (-300) and GGG (Boxing, -600) @ +240

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UFC 202 Leans

Cortney Casey +110

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson wins by KO, TKO, or DQ -150

Nate Diaz by submission +200

Nate Diaz by Decision +650

Conor McGregor by Decision +500

Diaz v McGregor Over Rounds 2.5 +110

PARLAY @ +275:
Cortney Casey+110
Cody Garbrandt -500
Anthony Johnson -205

CFL TEASER BONUS:

TOR +3
HAMILTON -10.5

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UFC 200

UFC 200 is here…what a wacky week for MMA, especially considering Jon Jones got popped for PEDs and the DC fight is now him vs Anderson Silva.

Here are some of my UFC 200 Leans:

Thiago Santos +215

He’s won 4 in a row, and it a late replacement for his opponent Mousasi, who said “he preferred a bigger name”, so could be taking him lightly here.

T.J. Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao Goes the Distance -200

They have fought before, and that one went the distance back in 2013. This is an important fight for both guys as TJ is coming off a loss and Assuncao is coming off an injury. Both have really good movement and striking defense so I think it will be a solid 3 round war on the feet.

Kelvin Gastelum -115

Johnny Hendricks missed weight AGAIN, will forfeit 20% of his purse, and on the scales looked like how I feel with I have pocket Kings and an Ace hits the flop. This will probably be his last fight at 170. Kelvin is a solid wrestler and a blackbelt jiujitsu maven from 10th planet, and I see him winning by either submission or decision.

Frankie Edgar -130, Edgar by 5 Round decision +215, and Fight Goes the Distance -135

The Brazilian fighters have had a tough go of it in the USADA era, and some have speculated that is due to the fact they can’t take those special supplements anymore. Aldo is coming off a 13 second KO to COnor McGregor and while he beat Edgar in the first fight, I think Frankie has been on such a hot streak and wants the fight in MSG so bad vs Conor for the 145 belt that he pulls out a decision.

Other thoughts: I do like Tate at -260, but not going to take it as I would want that price a little lower before firing. If you are thinking about taking the underdog Nunes, take the first round prop at +600, as Nunes is the kind of fighter who comes out guns a blazing, but then her cardio fades after the adrenaline dump comes about……..Brock Lesnar at +175 is tempting, even if he hasn’t fought in over 4 years. But he looked to be in “beach body” shape at the weigh ins, so cardio is a concern and you don’t want you leave your head dangling for super striker Mark Hunt……make sure you watch the Cat Zingano vs Julianna Pena fight, it will be awesome but it’s also completely unbettable. You are better off taking the Cleveland Gladiators +14.5 in Arena Football tonight.

Parlay at +325:
Kelvin Gastelum-115, Daniel Cormier -400, Jim Miller -275, Cain Velasquez -300

UFC 199

Dan Henderson +280

This is probably his last fight. He’s from Cali, and the fight is in LA. I expect him to come out on his sword and try to KO Lombard.

Dominick Cruz by decision -165

I think Cruz’s head movement and defensive boxing are some of the best in MMA. He has the reach advantage and height advantage on Uriah Faber. Faber is also one of the more durable veterans in the UFC and rarely gets KO’d. I think Cruz outpoints him and gets the decision in 5.

No, fight does not go the distance – Poirier vs Green +140

These two have talked shit all week, and Poirier is a “KO or KO’d” type of fighter. They won;t be looking for just a win here; they wanna fuck each other up.

PARLAY +420:

Cruz -400
Rockhold -700
Henderson +280

UFC 198

Werdum -150

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +195

PARLAY @ +236:

Werdum -150

Cyborg -1200

Moraes -450

Lineker -155

UFC 197

PARLAY @ -116:

Jon Jones -600
Mighty Mouse -400
Danny Roberts -400
Gennady Golovkin -10000 (Boxing)

Individual plays:

Danny Roberts -400

Dominique Steele looked like absolute dogshit yesterday at the weigh-ins and he immediately took off all his clothes to try as best as possible to make the 170 weight (he came in at 171 and made weight). It is usually very hard to come back from dehydration like that at welterweight and higher.

Rafael Natal +245

It’s not that I don’t think he’s an underdog to Whittaker, he is…..Whittaker is one of the better prospects in the UFC today. I just think the math on the line is wrong as Natal is a very dangerous opponent with excellent jiu jitsu. This should be at +150 or somewhere around there.

If you are thinking about taking OSP tonight, make sure you take the “inside distance” and “win in the 1st round” props. The only way he has a chance to win is in the 1st round as Jon could have some early ring rust and OSP tends to gas out after the first round as he throws everything with power (he does has several first round KOs for this reason). I think Jones wins in Round 2 or 3 by ground and pound.

NBA BONUS:

TOR @ IND Under 194

NBA Unders are hitting at a 65% clip so far this postseason.

Miami +2.5

Heat are just a bad matchup for Charlotte.

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Celtics Playoffs

The Celtics have made it into the East as a 5th seed. I would of preferred 3/6, so they avoid the Cavs in the second round…..but I think they eventually face them anyways as they are the two top teams in the East. Toronto is talented but soft defensively, and get a tough draw in the 1st round vs Indiana. Miami is wildly erratic (as evident by blowing a 26 point lead in the 2nd half to the Celtics in the season finale and only scoring 5 fucking points in the 3rd quarter).

I am taking the Celtics series price at +140 vs the Hawks in the 1st Round. The Hawks have no real home field advantage as I am sure half of their home games will be filled with Celtics fans (especially on the weekend games). The Hawks also have this going against them:

I am a big believer of the referees being influenced by stuff like this, and add the conspiratory angle that the NBA would want a Boston vs Cleveland 2nd round for the ratings, I think the Celtics have many edges here.

I am also taking a small flyer on Celtics to win the East at +1600, and the Celtics/Warriors final at +3300. The Cavs are the favorite to win the East (-260), but I think the Celtics are the other team to come out, if anyone else does.

UFC BONUS:

Dodson v Gamburyan Fight Goes the Distance +100
Court McGee +140
Evans vs Teixeira Over Rounds 3.5 -140

UFC Croatia

Rothwell +105

Junior Dos Santos should have retired 2 fights ago, and for Rothwell, this is a big fight for him today. He’s on a “last gasp” effort in a long career to gain a shot for a title. He’s has finishes in his last 4 fights.

NBA BONUS:

San Antonio -5.5