Evans wins by 3 Round Decision +160
Hunt vs Overeem Over Rounds 1.5 -120
PARLAY @ +195:
Lando Vannata -350 and Tyron Woodley +115
Anderson Silva +120
Randy Brown -145
Wilson Reis -600
Ronaldo Souza -550
Seahawks at Packers Over 46.5
It’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday, but I expect points to be scored in this one as both teams lost big defensive players to injury (SS Earl Thomas for the Seahawks; LB Nick Perry for Packers). RB Thomas Rawls comes back for the Seahawks vs the Packers’ milquetoast run defense. These games are always competitive and back and forth. One of the great slate of games for this week.
Miami -1 (-105)
The Arizona Cardinals make a cross country trip for a 1 o’clock game vs a team who plays in hot weather that got their ass kicked last week. The Cardinals are one of my “Teams Already Packed Up for the Holidays” and will most likely be partying the night before at the various wonderful establishments on South Beach. SS Tyrann Mathieu is out for Arizona. Miami is still in the WC hunt and needs a win, and I expect one here.
Washington -1 (-105)
The Eagles’ young team has been reeling the last few weeks as their lack of depth is now catching up to them. Washington gets super route runner TE Jordan Reed back for this game, and I expect a rebound for Kirk Cousins and company.
Houston +6.5 (-110)
I hate taking this shitty Texans team on the road, but in this shitty AFC South division vs a shitty Colts team where it’s a must win for both of these shitty teams, I expect a low scoring, close, shitty game.
Browns ML +290 and TEASER: Browns +12.5 and Under 43.5
As we talked about on the Miracle Covers podcast a few weeks ago, the Browns win in their schedule comes against the lowly Bengals…and we said this BEFORE they lost WR A.J. Green and RB Geo Bernard. The Browns get Robert Griffin III back (I dunno if that’s good or bad) but they are coming off a bye (in Week 13?) and it either this game, or when the Chargers come into Cleveland in a few weeks, that is the *win* in this season. The Browns are not the 2008 Detroit Lions, IMO the worst team of all time. They are a bad team, but they aren’t *that* bad; at least they have some talent like WR Pryor Sr, LB Jamie Collins, RB Isiah Crowell, etc. It’s also going to be snowing Sunday in Cleveland, so I am going to put the Browns line (+6.5) in a teaser with the under as well. Disclosure: I may have a gambling problem.
GB/SEA Over 46.5
Marc Diakiese vs Frankie Perez Under 1.5 Rounds +145
Max Holloway -200
Pettis missed weight today by 3 lbs this morning. Holloway is the best 145 lb guy in the division now that McGregor has moved up in weight. I’ll pay the juice and Holloway gets the belt here, IMO vs Pettis who is 1-3 in his last 4 fights.
Army vs Navy Under 47
The Under in this game has hit 10 out of the last 11. Also, a good tip: its +EV to take a under in an Armed Forces college derby, as these teams play for the “Commander’s Cup” each time, as well as the fact that Armed Forces team usually have run-heavy option attacks due to recruiting issues.
Baltimore -3 (-125)
This has bounced back from -3 to -3.5/-4 (+105). Miami has been on a roll lately, winning 6 straight…..but they are a flawed team that gave up a lot of big plays to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers last weekend. They are due for a loss, IMO. Baltimore has always played stout at home, and their defense is top 5 in the league and should be able to keep Ryan Tannenhill and Company at bay enough. The only variable, like last week: can the Baltimore offense score enough to cover the line? Against a defense like Miami who is clearly waning in play due to lack of depth (and add in a pick 6 maybe from Tannenhill), I like the Ravens and will give the points here.
New Orleans vs Detroit Over 53.3 (-110)
New Orleans Overs at home have hit at a 66% rate this year, and the two that didn’t hit were only off by a few points. Both of these defenses stink, and the offenses have QBs who are playing at a high level. This is an important game for both teams, so I expect a fun, back and forth competitive affair that also has some fail in between.
Green Bay -7 (+105)
This is more about the juice, and the opponent for the Packers, more so that whether or not they are an actual good team who can cover the 7. The Packers are quite flawed; Rodgers is playing well but his teammates aren’t fans of his showing up his teammates on the field, and both Green Bay’s running defense and offense has been shoddy this year. Rodgers and this team reminds me of James Harden and the Rockets: you have this one great individual player who racks up huge stats each week, but the shortcomings of the team eventually bites them down the road in the playoffs where not even a great scorer can overcome a more balanced opponent. Houston, who somehow still leads the AFC South and is now tied with the Titans, comes into town as one of the worst road teams in the league both in the record and ATS. Houston Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler, who they gave a shit ton of money too, is having his job security questioned by fans and beat writers from some guy named Tom Savage, who I think was in a tag team with the Macho Man back in the WWE. DeAndre Hopkins is on milk cartons across America because he is missing each and every week. Gimme Aaron Rodgers at home here.
TEASER @ +260:
NO vs DET Over 53.5
Parlay Special @ +280:
Green Bay -7 (+105) (NFL)
Univ of Washington ML -380 (NCAAF)
Demetrious Johnson -1000 (UFC)
Rob Font -280 (UFC)
Baltimore -4 (-115)
This started at -4.5 and is falling, I dunno why. Cincy lost their 3rd down back in Geo Bernard and their #1 WR in A.J. Green. Their LB corps are banged up and playing on fumes, and the secondary is not as good as they were last year. The Ravens are coming off a loss at Dallas they could of had, and will be playing pissed and motivated vs a Cincy team one loss away from throwing the season in (yes, we had the over #doh). I am wary of the BAL offense as it has struggles putting teams away, but I fully expect a Dalton giveaway and maybe some Cincy special teams fail to help the Ravens take care of business at home.
Jacksonville at Buffalo Over 45 (-110)
Did you know Buffalo has been the best “Over” team all year? Who knew! They didn’t hit last week, but that’s because McCoy left with an injury. HE comes back this week vs a Jacksonville team that can score in bunches (and also go quarters without points) vs a back four in Buffalo who, while is playing better, has given up big plays in the passing game all year. Tyrod Taylor should have no problem moving the ball at home, WR Sammy Watkins comes back from injury, and this could end up being a fun game with big plays and hilarious fail.
NO vs LA Over 45.5
Dan Kelly +220
Brunson vs Whittaker Fight Goes the Distance? – YES @ +200
Jim Miller +125
Woodley by 5 Round Decision +500
Stephen Thompson by 5 Round Decision +240
McGregor vs Alvarez Over Rounds 3 +130
Parlay @ +175:
Indy at Green Bay Under 54 (-110)
This started at 53 and is rising. I just think these two teams will fail enough where it won’t be the fantasy football tout fest this O/U makes it out to be. Green Bay’s defense is allowing 20.3 ppg at home. The referee, Tony Corrente, is also favorable to the under: the under has a 77-55 record under his stripes. Usually means he keeps the flag in the pocket, and that helps defenses.
San Diego -4 (-110)
This started at -5.5. The Chargers’ games have been the most exciting all year…..with the only one being an ass whuppin’ they gave to Jacksonville at home in Week 2. They have been great against the number as well. Tennessee is coming off a long week and travels into hot San Diego coming off a win vs the Jaguars. All Marcus Mariota does is take huge dumps on the road; with an average road QB Rating of 63.3. The Titans losing these types of games are why Lou and I refuse to bet on who will win on their crappy division.
Kansas City -7.5
Green Bay -7.5
Tony Ferguson +120
Parlay @ +250: Alexa Grasso (-550), Marco Polo Reyes (-175), Erik Perez (-210), Enrique Barzola (-550)
LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals Over 7.5 +105
3-1 so far this 2016 playoff.
Miss St v Auburn Under 54.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs NC State Under 56
Albert Tumenov (-240) and Michael Bisping (-250) at +101
Arizona -4 (-105) @ Buffalo
Yes, it is an early 1pm game on the road for the West Coast Arizona Cardinals….but Buffalo is reeling right now, just firing their offensive coordinator (who was the highest paid OC in all of football) and probably not having Sammy Watkins available as he is battling an injury and was just downgraded from questionable to doubtful.
Carolina -7 (-110) vs Minnesota
Minnesota will be without the following former first round picks due to injury: RB Adrian Peterson, OT Kalil, DT Sharif Floyd, and of course QB Teddy Bridgewater. The Floyd injury is the most significant; the Vikings have a hard time moving the ball as it is and Carolina can just play the inside running game much easier to win the field position battle. I just don’t see how the Vikings score enough points to keep this one close.
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 42.5 (-110)
This one will be a yawner. The Rams best offense is their defense, and the Bucs will be without RB Doug Martin.
Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Philadelphia
I think the Eagles good start comes down to earth this week. They are a little banged up and the Pittsburgh offense is playing well. Rookie QBs also usually don’t do that well against Pittsburgh’s front 7 the first time they face them.
San Francisco +9 (-105) @ Seattle
Is Seattle 3 points better than anybody at this point? Their OL and offense is in shambles. This is also somewhat of a hedge against my 49ers under season bet (5.5 wins).
Redblacks -5.5 (-105)
Antonio “Big Foot” Silva +385
Parlay at +780: Antonio Silva (+385), Pepey (-140), Erick Silva (+105), Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200)
Here are my leans for Week 1:
Browns +4.5 (-115) @ Philadelphia
This is now at +4. And me and Lou discussed on the podcast, we think Philadelphia is really going to stink this year, especially starting a banged up rookie QB in Week 1. They are a young team who isn’t 3 points better than anyone at the moment, nevermind the lowly Browns. Also, RGIII has looked pretty good in pre-season and with new coach and offensive guru Hue Jackson, the Browns should be able to move the ball and throw it downfield. This should be either a close, entertaining game or a close, boring game that sets the sport of American football back 5 years.
Minnesota at Tennessee Under 41 (-105)
With a second year QB (Mariota), and an old backup QB (Hill), and two teams whose wide receiving corps have an average fantasy football draft ranking of 9th round or lower, I expect alot of two and three tight end sets and an over/under of plays with 3 WR sets at 25.5 (the average NFL game, teams run around 110-125 plays). There is a hint that new MIN QB Sam Bradford might actually play in this one, despite being there for like, a week. Titans TE Delanie Walker is questionable with an illness, and he’s a big part of the Titans’ zone read playaction offense. And the game is played on natural grass. This should be the day’s most boring game.
Oakland at New Orleans Over 51 (-110)
Both teams have tremendous offensive talent, all healthy because it’s Week 1. Drew Brees, who just signed a new 2 year deal, does way better at home in the dome than he does on the road. So does his offensive teammates. New Orleans’ defense is the worst in the league, and Oakland’s is about average. This should be the most exciting game of the day.
Baltimore -3 (-115) vs Buffalo
Buffalo’s defense is missing DT Darius due to suspension and WR Sammy Watkins is banged up. They also have some questions at free safety, an important role in Rex Ryan’s scheme. From Greg Bedard below:
There is no more crucial position in Rex Ryan’s defense than the free safety, who is the nerve center for all communication and checks. Graham had his share of issues last season after converting from cornerback. Communication was a big issue for the defense last season, Ryan’s first in Buffalo, and that has to become a strength for the unit to take the next step.
I expect Baltimore to test the safeties early and often with Joe Flacco’s deep ball prowless; they also get some WRs back from injury (Perriman, Smith) they didn’t have last year. Buffalo also will have a hard time exploiting the Ravens’ weakness, CB depth, as their QB Tyrod Taylor is more of a zone read QB as supposed to a guy who can dink and dunk with precision accuracy. Also, Taylor was a Raven, so the front 7 had a good look at his running style during his time there. Betting the Ravens at home has done me well over the years, so going to stick with the trend on this one.
TEASER @ +330:
GB/JAX Over 48
Mickey Gall -300 (now at -400)
So Mickey Gall, who is 2-0 in his young career (with two submissions) faces former WWE wrestler Phil “CM Punk” Brooks this Saturday at UFC 203. I bet this the minute it came out, and as you can see, the action on Gall has poured in. It might even go to -420 (lol) before the fight. CM Punk, who has been training MMA for the last two years, has never fought a professional or amateur MMA fight and has only done a little Kempo in terms of formal martial arts training. The UFC is really only putting him out there to sell a PPV. According to MMA journalist Luke Thomas, CM Punk didn’t technically meet Ohio athletic commission’s stated requirements for licensure (yet they gave him one anyways; who says money doesn’t influence politics!). CM Punk has also had a hard time cutting weight to 170 (which he hasn’t weighed since high school!), which is always a bad sign at 37 years of age. At 23, Mickey Gall is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu from the Jim Miller camp in NJ, one known for its world class rear naked chokes and guillotines. That would be a prop to take the day of the fight (I would guess Gall to win by submission would be at around +150; I’ll probably take that too). If Mickey Gall loses this, I might retire from MMA betting as I clearly don’t know anything (or, the kid takes a paid dive and the sport is rigged).
PARLAY: Jessica Eye (-145) and Mickey Gall (-300) and Werdum (-300) and GGG (Boxing, -600) @ +240