Lorenz Larkin vs Douglas Lima – Will the fight go the distance YES @ -120
Chinzo Machida +210
Michael Chandler-800, Matt Mitrione -135, Chinzo Machida +210
UFC OKC (Sunday Night):
Tim Boetsch +175
Johnny Hendricks missed weight AGAIN! And he moved up from 170 to 185 for this very reason. #fail
CFL (2-0 so far!):
BC v EDM Over 59 (-110)
Derek Brunson vs Daniel Kelly Will the fight go the distance? – YES @ +115
Mark Hunt wins by KO, TKO, DQ +140
The Belmont Stakes:
PIT +120 (hedge as a part of my NSH +145 series bet)
Omari Akhmedov +195
Pedro Munhoz -752
Omari Akhmedov +195
NHL thoughts tomorrow!
Maia vs Masvidal Over Rounds 1.5 -240
Yair Rodriguez EVEN
Bruins at Ottawa Over 5 +120
First off, NHL playoff unders are so far 1-9-2 O/U….and I think that will be the play for most of this series. But, considering the dynamic of Ottawa needing a win and the Bruins having injuries in the defense pairings, this should be a more open game today as Ottawa will be desperate to score goals even in Guy Boucher’s nitty neutral zone system.
UFC on FOX Kansas City:
Parlay @ +298: Souza -240, Johnson -699, Collier +120
Roy Nelson +125
Also, as a side note: if you do take the longshot Reis tonight in the title match, make sure to bet the “win by submission” prop. He is a jiu-jitsu maven and no one in the world is going to beat Mighty Mouse Johnson in a decision since he is the fastest fighters in the UFC. A shock win here will come via sub for Reis, and you’ll get more odds on that as supposed to the straight up +450.
Stoke v Hull Over 2.5 +110
Brooks vs Oliveira Goes the Distance – Yes @ -105
Daniel Cormier wins by decision +525
Anthony Johnson wins by decision +775
Parlay +395: Kamaru Usman-285, Myles Jury -450, Pearl Gonzalez +200
UFC Fight Night Brazil:
“Will There Be a Draw on the Card? – Yes” @ +1000
Over Total KO/TKO’s on Card 4.5 @ -120
Joe Soto +160
PARLAY @ +378: Sergio Moraes -230, Trinaldo +150, Paulo Henrique Costa -300
UPenn +7.5 and in TEASER with Under 128 (vs Princeton)
Evans wins by 3 Round Decision +160
Hunt vs Overeem Over Rounds 1.5 -120
PARLAY @ +195:
Lando Vannata -350 and Tyron Woodley +115
Anderson Silva +120
Randy Brown -145
Wilson Reis -600
Ronaldo Souza -550
Seahawks at Packers Over 46.5
It’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday, but I expect points to be scored in this one as both teams lost big defensive players to injury (SS Earl Thomas for the Seahawks; LB Nick Perry for Packers). RB Thomas Rawls comes back for the Seahawks vs the Packers’ milquetoast run defense. These games are always competitive and back and forth. One of the great slate of games for this week.
Miami -1 (-105)
The Arizona Cardinals make a cross country trip for a 1 o’clock game vs a team who plays in hot weather that got their ass kicked last week. The Cardinals are one of my “Teams Already Packed Up for the Holidays” and will most likely be partying the night before at the various wonderful establishments on South Beach. SS Tyrann Mathieu is out for Arizona. Miami is still in the WC hunt and needs a win, and I expect one here.
Washington -1 (-105)
The Eagles’ young team has been reeling the last few weeks as their lack of depth is now catching up to them. Washington gets super route runner TE Jordan Reed back for this game, and I expect a rebound for Kirk Cousins and company.
Houston +6.5 (-110)
I hate taking this shitty Texans team on the road, but in this shitty AFC South division vs a shitty Colts team where it’s a must win for both of these shitty teams, I expect a low scoring, close, shitty game.
Browns ML +290 and TEASER: Browns +12.5 and Under 43.5
As we talked about on the Miracle Covers podcast a few weeks ago, the Browns win in their schedule comes against the lowly Bengals…and we said this BEFORE they lost WR A.J. Green and RB Geo Bernard. The Browns get Robert Griffin III back (I dunno if that’s good or bad) but they are coming off a bye (in Week 13?) and it either this game, or when the Chargers come into Cleveland in a few weeks, that is the *win* in this season. The Browns are not the 2008 Detroit Lions, IMO the worst team of all time. They are a bad team, but they aren’t *that* bad; at least they have some talent like WR Pryor Sr, LB Jamie Collins, RB Isiah Crowell, etc. It’s also going to be snowing Sunday in Cleveland, so I am going to put the Browns line (+6.5) in a teaser with the under as well. Disclosure: I may have a gambling problem.
GB/SEA Over 46.5
Marc Diakiese vs Frankie Perez Under 1.5 Rounds +145
Max Holloway -200
Pettis missed weight today by 3 lbs this morning. Holloway is the best 145 lb guy in the division now that McGregor has moved up in weight. I’ll pay the juice and Holloway gets the belt here, IMO vs Pettis who is 1-3 in his last 4 fights.
Army vs Navy Under 47
The Under in this game has hit 10 out of the last 11. Also, a good tip: its +EV to take a under in an Armed Forces college derby, as these teams play for the “Commander’s Cup” each time, as well as the fact that Armed Forces team usually have run-heavy option attacks due to recruiting issues.