Category: Other Sports
GGG vs Canelo
I have no major thoughts tonight….it should be a great fight between two warriors who, I think, take it the distance. I am making a small play at -130 Fight Goes the Distance as I think this should be at around -175 or so. Canelo at +145 is OK value considering you are getting odds on an essential coinflip.
Argos v Eskimos Over 52
First, here is my DFS lineup for the week:
Second, get ready for the CFL season with a preview with me and CFL guru buffaloholdem:
And finally, here are some plays for tonight:
Edmonton vs BC Over 59 (-110)
Hamilton -3.5 (-110)
TEASER: MTL -7 and Under 51 (-130)
First, we got an exciting new pod out with buffaloholdem on his thoughts for the upcoming 2017 CFL Season! We’ve featured buffaloholdem’s bets here on the blog before, and my CFL success methodology has definitely been influenced by him…..so I wanted to ask him on how he attacks a sport not many keep up on (including the books) as much as the more popular offerings. The sound is a little off and I cleaned up what I could so you might have to turn things up a bit……but things could be worse: I could be Vince Young and somehow find a way to blow $26 million in 3 years. We talk to Buffaloholdem about his love of the game, why CFL is still such a great sport to find betting value on, and discuss each conferences’ teams, CFL DFS strategy, and give our predictions for the 2017 East, West, and the Grey Cup (Coupe de Grey) Winners.
Kovalev vs Ward 2
I am really surprised Kovalev is a dog, here. He won the first fight IMO as he knocked down Ward once ……but the judges gave Ward’s technical late round boxing the rest of the rounds and a 114-113 decision (if that sounds confusing to you, it is but Max Kellerman does a great job explaining how Ward could win a fight he got knocked down in here). Kovalev hasn’t been talking to press at all this week, hasn’t even listed his purse for the fight, and is seems primed to avenge his only loss of his career. These two great boxers were meant to fight a trilogy, and a Kovalev win assures that.
Derek Brunson vs Daniel Kelly Will the fight go the distance? – YES @ +115
Mark Hunt wins by KO, TKO, DQ +140
The Belmont Stakes:
PIT +120 (hedge as a part of my NSH +145 series bet)
It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.
Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.
Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1
PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)
Jacksonville +7 (-120)
The Jaguars go into Detroit coming off a close loss at home to a boring ass Texans team. Detroit has the worst passing defense in the league, and if there is one thing Bortles and Co. do is throw the ball, especially when they are behind in a game. Matthew Stafford and the Lions do a great job playing *up* to their competition, but also a bad job playing *down* to it. The public is big on the Lions….I don’t know why. This is the same team that beat Minnesota in OT that also lost to Tennessee at home despite spending the entire first half inside the Titans’ 50 yard line and only scoring 15 points. That’s really hard to do! I like a close game filled with fail here, and maybe a Blake Bortles miracle cover!
Titans at Colts Under 53 (-115)
This is actually a big game in the fail AFC South! Everyone expects this to be a shootout in the dome with two offenses playing pretty well, and both defenses are pretty milquetoast. But Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota’s QBR tanks on the road by 30+ points, and Andrew Luck’s teams in these big games tend to have sphincteritis. I expect a low scoring, tightly contested playoff style game as this is essentially a “loser goes home” game.
Miami -1.5 (EVEN)
Yes, Miami is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Their win in SD last week was their first on the road in over 2 years. But they get a break this week as Jared Goff, the #1 overall pick, who makes his first start at home. The last QB who was taken first in the draft since 2000 to win his first start at home? David Carr in 2002 with the Texans. I like Miami and their front seven to get after the rookie and create some turnovers into points, as I will admit it will be hard for the milquetoast Miami offense to have many long drives vs the Rams’ top 5 defense….but I’ll take Ryan Tannehill over a QB who doesn’t know the Sun sets in the West. We also have Miami’s season under at 7, and since they’ve won 4 in a row, that’s in jeopardy so we can hedge here, too.
BOXING BONUS: Kovalev (+115) vs Ward (-145) Prop: “Fight Goes the Distance – Yes” at -170
Big time fight this week with these two titans of boxing. Both are undefeated, and Ward is coming up in weight to fight KO artist Sergey Kovalev. Ward is the sport’s second best defensive boxer (behind Floyd Mayweather) and is master class with his footwork and punching. I expect him to out point and try to frustrate Kovalev’s power and aggression and make him fight his fight. Kovalev has also shown he can outbox too, as he out pointed legend (and AARP member) Bernard Hopkins two years ago (a lean we had here on Miracle Covers). I like this fight to go the distance in a 12 round classic, and if I had to pick a side, I also like Ward to win in a close decision (which is at +105, if you so fancy).
Cortney Casey +110
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson wins by KO, TKO, or DQ -150
Nate Diaz by submission +200
Nate Diaz by Decision +650
Conor McGregor by Decision +500
Diaz v McGregor Over Rounds 2.5 +110
PARLAY @ +275:
Cody Garbrandt -500
Anthony Johnson -205
CFL TEASER BONUS:
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4 -110
TEASER: CAL -6 + WPG +4
Again, thanks to buffaloholdem on the leans!
Here’s a great way to go into the weekend: LFL highlights!
Nobody told me LFL was this exciting: https://t.co/kOy0gaCe7N
— Chad Johnson (@ochocinco) August 12, 2016
Swansea v Burnley Under 2 (+110)
True to form:
I think the play in the Men Soccer tournament will be : over goals. The defense is atrocious
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) August 5, 2016
I am taking a ton of overs in the soccer matches today. A few reasons why the overs could be a theme this soccer tournament:
a) Most of these squads are U23 (each team has 3 exceptions, usually pro players who are older). They don’t play often and are usually very unorganized.
b) Mismatches. The Olympics soccer pool is a bit more diverse than the pro tournaments, with teams like Fiji and South Africa getting in. This usually creates some really lopsided scores, like South Korea hanging up 8 goals, 7 in the second half, on that Fiji team. In case your wondering, Fiji/MExico’s O/U today is 7, with the Over having -185 juice. That’s the highest juice I have ever seen for an over in a soccer match.
c) Brazil. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil was all about goals in the group stages. The stadiums are in diverse weather areas so and while Brazil is technically in its fall/winter season, since it is near the wequator some areas maintain really damp and hot conditions. This leads to fatigue, which opens up play.
Here are the plays for today:
Japan/Colombia Over 3 (+105)
Sweden/Nigeria Over 3 (EVEN)
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (-140)
Brazil/Iraq Over 3 (EVEN)
4 team parlay @ +400:
Japan/Colombia Over 3
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (EVEN)
Dana Vollmer Olympics 100m Butterfly Women – Winner +2000