Category: Other Sports
It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.
Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.
Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1
PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)
Jacksonville +7 (-120)
The Jaguars go into Detroit coming off a close loss at home to a boring ass Texans team. Detroit has the worst passing defense in the league, and if there is one thing Bortles and Co. do is throw the ball, especially when they are behind in a game. Matthew Stafford and the Lions do a great job playing *up* to their competition, but also a bad job playing *down* to it. The public is big on the Lions….I don’t know why. This is the same team that beat Minnesota in OT that also lost to Tennessee at home despite spending the entire first half inside the Titans’ 50 yard line and only scoring 15 points. That’s really hard to do! I like a close game filled with fail here, and maybe a Blake Bortles miracle cover!
Titans at Colts Under 53 (-115)
This is actually a big game in the fail AFC South! Everyone expects this to be a shootout in the dome with two offenses playing pretty well, and both defenses are pretty milquetoast. But Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota’s QBR tanks on the road by 30+ points, and Andrew Luck’s teams in these big games tend to have sphincteritis. I expect a low scoring, tightly contested playoff style game as this is essentially a “loser goes home” game.
Miami -1.5 (EVEN)
Yes, Miami is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. Their win in SD last week was their first on the road in over 2 years. But they get a break this week as Jared Goff, the #1 overall pick, who makes his first start at home. The last QB who was taken first in the draft since 2000 to win his first start at home? David Carr in 2002 with the Texans. I like Miami and their front seven to get after the rookie and create some turnovers into points, as I will admit it will be hard for the milquetoast Miami offense to have many long drives vs the Rams’ top 5 defense….but I’ll take Ryan Tannehill over a QB who doesn’t know the Sun sets in the West. We also have Miami’s season under at 7, and since they’ve won 4 in a row, that’s in jeopardy so we can hedge here, too.
BOXING BONUS: Kovalev (+115) vs Ward (-145) Prop: “Fight Goes the Distance – Yes” at -170
Big time fight this week with these two titans of boxing. Both are undefeated, and Ward is coming up in weight to fight KO artist Sergey Kovalev. Ward is the sport’s second best defensive boxer (behind Floyd Mayweather) and is master class with his footwork and punching. I expect him to out point and try to frustrate Kovalev’s power and aggression and make him fight his fight. Kovalev has also shown he can outbox too, as he out pointed legend (and AARP member) Bernard Hopkins two years ago (a lean we had here on Miracle Covers). I like this fight to go the distance in a 12 round classic, and if I had to pick a side, I also like Ward to win in a close decision (which is at +105, if you so fancy).
Cortney Casey +110
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson wins by KO, TKO, or DQ -150
Nate Diaz by submission +200
Nate Diaz by Decision +650
Conor McGregor by Decision +500
Diaz v McGregor Over Rounds 2.5 +110
PARLAY @ +275:
Cody Garbrandt -500
Anthony Johnson -205
CFL TEASER BONUS:
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +4 -110
TEASER: CAL -6 + WPG +4
Again, thanks to buffaloholdem on the leans!
Here’s a great way to go into the weekend: LFL highlights!
Nobody told me LFL was this exciting: https://t.co/kOy0gaCe7N
— Chad Johnson (@ochocinco) August 12, 2016
Swansea v Burnley Under 2 (+110)
True to form:
I think the play in the Men Soccer tournament will be : over goals. The defense is atrocious
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) August 5, 2016
I am taking a ton of overs in the soccer matches today. A few reasons why the overs could be a theme this soccer tournament:
a) Most of these squads are U23 (each team has 3 exceptions, usually pro players who are older). They don’t play often and are usually very unorganized.
b) Mismatches. The Olympics soccer pool is a bit more diverse than the pro tournaments, with teams like Fiji and South Africa getting in. This usually creates some really lopsided scores, like South Korea hanging up 8 goals, 7 in the second half, on that Fiji team. In case your wondering, Fiji/MExico’s O/U today is 7, with the Over having -185 juice. That’s the highest juice I have ever seen for an over in a soccer match.
c) Brazil. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil was all about goals in the group stages. The stadiums are in diverse weather areas so and while Brazil is technically in its fall/winter season, since it is near the wequator some areas maintain really damp and hot conditions. This leads to fatigue, which opens up play.
Here are the plays for today:
Japan/Colombia Over 3 (+105)
Sweden/Nigeria Over 3 (EVEN)
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (-140)
Brazil/Iraq Over 3 (EVEN)
4 team parlay @ +400:
Japan/Colombia Over 3
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (EVEN)
Dana Vollmer Olympics 100m Butterfly Women – Winner +2000
Wales Pick (+170)
Under 2 (EVEN)
First of all, I am not drunk at 9am in regards to typing the title of this post; that language is Welsh, and it stands for “Long Live Wales”. This guy should get an Emmy for pronouncing this Welsh city name below:
I think today’s Wales v Portugal game will be a rock fight. Portugal hasn’t scored a goal in regular time this whole tourney, and Wales will be missing one of their key offensive players in Aaron Ramsey due to suspension. Portugal has a habit of eventually choking in these things, and I could see Bale scoring and Wales taking home a 1-0 victory (Bale to score and Wales to win is at +400). The draw at +220 is also not a bad play.
UFC 200 leans coming later in the week.
If you need something to fire you up for the week, watch this pep talk given by the coach of the New England Liberty of the LFL league (I didn’t know that NE had a lingerie football team!). He’s pissed his team is getting his ass kicked 70-7 in the 4th.
I need this guy as a life coach:
Redblacks PK -105
Fight Goes the Distance +165
Khan has lost twice in his career….both by KO. But he has won his last 5 fights vs decision, and his switch from a new trainer from Freddie Roach was more of an emphasis on his defensive boxing, especially since getting KO’d in a fight he was winning vs Danny Garcia in 2012, which cost him a chance at Floyd Mayweather.
Make no mistake: Saul Alvarez will win this fight. He’s only ever lost to Floyd. He has too much on the line as all he needs to do is coast to a victory to guarantee at shot at Gennady Golvkin. THis matchup is a classic “power vs speed”, as it will be the quicker footwork of Khan, coming up in weight, to face the powerful hooks and body shots of Alvarez.
I think Saul gets into the clinch game with Khan when he can and land more power strikes, but Khan will work around him enough to get to a decision. We took the Cotto/Alvarez over on this site a few months ago, and the one theme in that fight was that Saul pretty much dominated, but got conservative in the final 4 rounds and decided to coast to a victory rather than going for a KO vs Cotto (and open himself up to a counter). AGain, all he (and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) knows is just win the fight, and advance onto a sweet payday vs GGG.
Kentucky Derby Bonus:
Exacta Box (12/13):
PARLAY @ -116:
Jon Jones -600
Mighty Mouse -400
Danny Roberts -400
Gennady Golovkin -10000 (Boxing)
Danny Roberts -400
Dominique Steele looked like absolute dogshit yesterday at the weigh-ins and he immediately took off all his clothes to try as best as possible to make the 170 weight (he came in at 171 and made weight). It is usually very hard to come back from dehydration like that at welterweight and higher.
Rafael Natal +245
It’s not that I don’t think he’s an underdog to Whittaker, he is…..Whittaker is one of the better prospects in the UFC today. I just think the math on the line is wrong as Natal is a very dangerous opponent with excellent jiu jitsu. This should be at +150 or somewhere around there.
If you are thinking about taking OSP tonight, make sure you take the “inside distance” and “win in the 1st round” props. The only way he has a chance to win is in the 1st round as Jon could have some early ring rust and OSP tends to gas out after the first round as he throws everything with power (he does has several first round KOs for this reason). I think Jones wins in Round 2 or 3 by ground and pound.
TOR @ IND Under 194
NBA Unders are hitting at a 65% clip so far this postseason.
Heat are just a bad matchup for Charlotte.
Big fight tonight as Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces Puerto Rico’s Miguel Cotto for a unification title fight.
Canelo is coming off of a blistering KO of James Kirkland, and has only lost once (to Floyd Mayweather in a decision). He has power, but is considered more of a technical fighter like his promoter and former champion, Oscar De La Hoya. He is the younger fighter (25), and the favorite at -260.
Cotto is a legend in the sport for putting on some of the most gruesome fights in the sport. He blooded Floyd’s face in a catchweight bout, and is considered to have a great chin. He’s a zombie who just keeps on coming forward. He is 35 and aging and has hinted he is only going to fight a few more times; his next rumored bout would be against the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now, Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. A win tonight for Cotto would make that fight even bigger. Cotto has lost his last two fights via decision, and has changed his corner man to Freddie Roach (who corners Pacquiao). Roach claims Cotto will KO Canelo, but this is also the guy who said Rousey would KO Holly Holm and we all know how that worked out. He is a +200 underdog.
As for my thoughts? I again like the Over Rounds 11.5 tonight at -160. This line started at -200 and has moved down and I believe we are getting great value here. We have one fighter who has a granite chin and another fighter who is more technical than a brawler. Canelo has improved his power, but I don’t think it will be enough to put Cotto down in this fight (although Cotto’s fighting style will certainly give Canelo opportunities to score). The last guy Canelo KO’d, James Kirkland, is a “KO or be KO’d” type of fighter. While Cotto fights wild, he is also smart enough to pace himself AND has a gifted chin (which is why he is loved by boxing fans everywhere; he doesn’t quit).
I expect Canelo to use his youth in terms of cardio to “box and score” around the ring and make Cotto work to get into the brawling style close quarter exchanges he wants. I expect Canelo to win in a competitive split decision. The fight is in Vegas, so the crowd (and judges) will be on Canelo’s side. Canelo to win by decision is at +110 for those interested.
ND vs BC Under 43
This KC/TOR series will be fun. It’s going 7, so I bet the total games at 7 (+180), and KC to win in 7 (+425) and TOR to win in 7 (+420). These two teams also don’t like each other, and quite honestly, I think the winner of this series wins the whole thing (unless the Cubs win and bring upon us the end times).
Leaning on NYM v CHI Over, whatever it is, tomorrow. I think 6.5 was the number I saw.
Here’s a sweet catch from last night:
One of the most amazing plays you'll ever see. pic.twitter.com/vFvvK0Bgzx
— Richard Roeper (@richardroeper) October 16, 2015