True to form:
I think the play in the Men Soccer tournament will be : over goals. The defense is atrocious
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) August 5, 2016
I am taking a ton of overs in the soccer matches today. A few reasons why the overs could be a theme this soccer tournament:
a) Most of these squads are U23 (each team has 3 exceptions, usually pro players who are older). They don’t play often and are usually very unorganized.
b) Mismatches. The Olympics soccer pool is a bit more diverse than the pro tournaments, with teams like Fiji and South Africa getting in. This usually creates some really lopsided scores, like South Korea hanging up 8 goals, 7 in the second half, on that Fiji team. In case your wondering, Fiji/MExico’s O/U today is 7, with the Over having -185 juice. That’s the highest juice I have ever seen for an over in a soccer match.
c) Brazil. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil was all about goals in the group stages. The stadiums are in diverse weather areas so and while Brazil is technically in its fall/winter season, since it is near the wequator some areas maintain really damp and hot conditions. This leads to fatigue, which opens up play.
Here are the plays for today:
Japan/Colombia Over 3 (+105)
Sweden/Nigeria Over 3 (EVEN)
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (-140)
Brazil/Iraq Over 3 (EVEN)
4 team parlay @ +400:
Japan/Colombia Over 3
Germany/S.Korea Over 2.5 (EVEN)
Dana Vollmer Olympics 100m Butterfly Women – Winner +2000
Sweden/Finland semifinal gets going in about an hour or so and we missed an even bigger betting spot on Finland/Russia. We haven’t been playing many sides in the tournament however because these totals have been improbably low. Likely the last play today, Sweden/Finland OVER 4.5 +119. Big day again in Canada, the women took both Curling and Hockey gold medals in straightforward & dramatic fashion respectively yesterday, and today it’s Men’s curling gold at 830 and USA/Canada in the other hockey semi at noon. I’m trying to find a bar that is showing curling live this morning.
3-0 yesterday, we’ll ride the hot streak today with:
Czech v USA Over 5.5 (+115)
USA -1.5 @ -120 (part of this coming from hedge from our Czech 10-to-1 Gold medal bet).
Also slightly tilted I missed an alternate over bet, 3.5 @ +165 Swiss v Lativa (they weren’t going to be 1-0 games forever, the 5.5 over was at +365!) and of course, Lou’s hot streak in curling. The guy is a stone savant.
I also have the Over in the Czech/Slovakia game (5.5 at +180 and 4.5 at EVEN).
Also taking FC Barcelona today at +125 vs Man City.
And now, here’s your Norwegian Curling Pants recap:
Winner this morning with our Curling play as Russia beat Germany 8-7. Sadly the curling tournament is coming to an end right as we’e cracked these totals. Total for those following me this Olympics is 4-1 +3.69. One hockey play tomorrow and that’s the Czechoslovakia OVER 4.5 +105. Maybe I’m using too much NHL knowledge in these overs, but it seems like 5 would be a more appropriate line. Related, we probably missed a play on US/Slovenia UNDER 6.5.
Germany Russia OVER 12.5 -130. Czech Swiss over was a loser the other day. The string of 1-0 games by the Swiss will obviously end soon but Jonas Hiller is en fuego at the moment. He won a Stanley cup for the Ducks a few years back on this sort of form. We should find out the remaining hockey matchups tomorrow.
I’ve never seen a guy take 6 straight penalty shots before. He was so composed; almost stuff you see on the pond (because he was so slow and deliberate) not in actual NHL-sytle shootouts. For Russia, that Datsyuk guy….he’s pretty good. The USA now (4-to-1) are serious Gold medal favorites, IMO.
Czech/Swiss Over 4.5 (-120). We hit our benchmark, and as good as the Swiss have played defensively in this tournament, I actually think they’ll be able to open up their offensive game vs the defense-less Czechs. It’s a pretty big game for both teams. Someone wins 3-2 here.
UFC (in Brazil):
Curling bet the other day was a winner, though the US lost to Russia yesterday morning in the equivalent of blowing a 2-run save in the 9th. Admittedly it was very close as after the last shot by the US, everyone stared at the ice for 30 seconds or so like old people in an Omaha game before determining that Russia won. 3-0 +2.31 for Olympics so far. Perfect record on the line at noon: Czech/Swiss OVER 4.5 -122. Switzerland’s first two games have finished 1-0, hence the line. I’m scared off enough to go 1/2 unit here.
China/Canada tomorrow at 10 Eastern in a Curling Medal preview for those looking for something to watch next to Arsenal-Liverpool.
Norway +2.5 (-110) vs Finland
Finland looked like crap vs the Austrians last game. Captain Teemu Selanne is playing at 75% and Tuukka Rast, who gave up 4 goals, has been shaky all year. I expect this to be a close game.
Canada/Austria Under 7.5
Too many goals. I expect Austria to pack it in and not go forward to keep it close versus a talented Canada team. I also don’t know how they score goals vs Canada (the Fins were just awful on defense last game). Austria gave up 8 goals last game but that’s an outlier IMO.
Also glad I didn’t take the Czech/Lativa over 6.5 (-145). The books’ adjusted. There was also an alternate line at 5.5 at -225, but that was too much juice. Basically, any game that the Czechs play should have 6 goals total in them either way. That’s our bench mark.
Puts me on tilt. It’s amateur hour relative to the other good teams that are playing. The captain reminds me of a bad poker player bemoaning his bad luck, ignoring the fact that it was the decisions before the last one that caused all of the problems in the first place. It’s also different playing relative professionals versus the equivalent of me and Darts at the local curling club. That said, Germany relatively stinks too. USA/Germany Over 12.5 -140. Starts at Midnight EST for you night owls.