Category: NFL
Monday Night Football
Two losers yesterday and to make things worse, Cleveland covered easily despite the line move taking out my play of the week. I will now be a degenerate gambler and chase yesterday’s losses with a bet on Monday.
Bears to win outright -125
In all seriousness, this play lines up well and I like it only slightly less than Cleveland earlier in the week. Full unit play for me.
Not much doing in hockey again after an empty weekend. Columbus is tempting at +175 but only because over 90% of the betting public is currently on Pittsburgh. If I decide to break the model and go with them, it will be for a half unit play. Islanders are another option in a west coast game if the line moves a bit more.
Good luck out there.
UPDATE: This Islanders game is really marginal and will probably lose but I’m going to gamble it up and play it anyway. Islanders +175
NFL Plays
All of these bets are @ 17
Browns +10 -113
Bills +2.5 +113
Eagles -2.5 -107
Chiefs/Skins Under 44 -108
Pats/Browns Under 47.5 -106
Raiders/Jets Over 39.5 -102
Colts/Bengals Under 43 -110
AND Note for me and Lou – Raiders Under @ 125
***UPDATE***
Tenn +13 -110
Cards -4 -110
Giants +4 -106
Giants/Chargers O/U 47 -103
I Am Hungover
Two winners yesterday. Yay. The NFL lines have moved to where I don’t want them and so the one game that was worth betting, Cleveland @ New England is down to 10 or even 9,5 in some places from 11 or 11.5 earlier in the week. The Browns are the team to take here but I am passing unless the line goes back to 10.5. Unlikely and sad.
At 4:00, Tennessee and the Giants are options and Carolina is the side to be on in the late game. Bears tomorrow in MNF I hope.
Nothing in hockey today, Winnipeg didn’t get below the public betting % I use as a filter yesterday but won anyway.
Good luck to everyone reading.
UPDATE: Washington/San Diego St. OVER 146.5. Half unit play
UPDATE 2: Carolina +3 for half a unit
More Sunday Bets
First, thanks to Lou for his Winnipeg suggestion yesterday, as we took the ML (+110) at a Stamkos-less TB Lighting team. The Jets won 2-1.
Also, thanks to Ohio State choking away the BCS title game last night, Auburn opens as a 7 point underdog to Florida State for the BCS title game. I kinda like Auburn here at first glance.
Second, I’ve added some more picks for today:
ATL at GB Under 44 (it’s going to snow in Lambeau today, and Rodgers isn’t playing)
Teaser: NE -10 and IND/CIN Under 44
Teaser BAL -7 (+105) and Under 41.5 (it’s snowing in BAL today)
Seattle Superbowl
After the Seahawks easily disposed of the Saints on Monday, I decided to take the plunge at 11/10 to take them to win the NFC. They have a virtual 3 game lead on the conference, own the tiebreaker over the Panthers (the only team left that might have a chance to beat them in that building…and they are in a fight with the Saints in the NFC South), and are the most balanced team in football right now. They have the largest average of margin in wins in the NFL this year, and 2nd in total points (behind the Broncos). I believe that with their home field advantage, that the only thing holding them back to NYC is an injury (especially to Marshawn Lynch).
The Seahawks can be run on, and will be run on by the 49ers this week who are desperate and playing for the Wild Card lives (hence why I’ll take the 49ers -3 at home @ +105 along with the ML at -137 this week)….but if they face them the 3rd time around, it will be in Seattle, where Kaepernick has shown to crap his pants. Seattle will most likely finish the year 14-2 or 13-3, as they finish up the year Giants, Cardinals, and Rams. I also create some fun hedging opportunities in the playoffs with this scenario (I can only hope Carolina gets double digits in Seattle in a playoff game) with this, so I consider this a +EV prop.
The Seahawks are 5/2 to win the entire thing. Interesting if that will change depending on their playoff performance.
I also like:
New Orleans vs Carolina Over 46
Teaser: Arizona -6 (vs St.Louis) and Under 42
Giants +155 ML (at San Diego)
Also might have some plays on Baltimore (vs MIN, -7, 42 O/U) and Denver (vs TEN, -13, 49 O/U) at home, but they are weather dependent as storms will be across the US on Sunday with ice, snow, and wind. Indy +7 is temping, but it has too much juice (-120) for my taste.
UFC:
Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva Over 1.5 rounds +130
Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh +375 (is fighting in his home country of Australia vs Ryan Bader, whose lost his last 2 of his last 3 fights).
Our tweet of the week comes again from WagerMinds:
The NFL's worst team against the spread? Yep, it's the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears at 2-8-2.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 3, 2013
Monday
Another winning day yesterday as only Washington was a loser. That’s two weeks in a row they have come up as a play and completely stunk. I’m honestly not sure how I will handle them if they come up as a play again in the next week or two. Houston was also an easy cover yesterday and they probably should have won outright. Atlanta required some incompetence by Buffalo but were a good play getting 4 or more points.
I hope someone has been following the hockey plays I have been listing as they’re now 7 for the last 8 and well up on the season.
Nothing in any sports tonight. Updates on lots of things in the morning.
NFL
Nothing clever here. Love faves this week. Am making an 80 bet to win 72 on all fave lines minus G-Men. In addition, all bets here @ 20
Miami @ Jets -1 -110
Chicago @ Vikings -1 105
Parlay MLs Panthers -305 Pats -285 Browns -315
Cards @ Eagles -3.5 +100
Dolphins/Jets Over 39.5 -110
Parlay MLs Colts -180 Bills -25
Sunday
Mixed day yesterday as both hoops sides were winners, Eastern Illinois by a single point and Harvard by a lot. One the Texas A&M total, it turned out to be a bad line as it should have been 138.5 instead of 128.5 and was quickly corrected after I placed by action. It didn’t matter as the teams only combined for 107. Kentucky was an easy loser in football and I’m back to a slight negative there after a good run.
NFL today had two games worth noting, only one of which is any good at the moment. Houston is hosting New England today and were anywhere from +9.5 to +7.5 underdogs. That’s now moved to 7 or even 6.5, removing the Texans as a play today :( The other notable game is Atlanta +4 “at” Buffalo as the game is being played in Toronto. I am on Atlanta for a small (half) play. Lastly, the night game tonight is the Giants @ Washington. Not sure yet if that will amount to anything, but if so Washington is the side to be on there.
NHL: Nothing yesterday but one game very likely today and that’s Edmonton +150. Gametime is 6:00 Eastern so I’ll confirm that later.
NCAA: No totals yet as they tend to get released late. One side today, Siena +10.5
Good luck today.
UPDATES: Added Atlanta +4.5 to make for a full bet and confirming Edmonton +150
UPDATE 2: Washington to win -105
Week 13 Quick Slants
UFC:
Nate Diaz +105
NFL:
Teasers: NE -9 and Over 47 at HOU; Atlanta +3.5 and Over 48 at BUF
Jacksonville +7 (even) also will throw this in teaser with Under 40.5 vs Cleveland
49ers -7 vs St. Louis
Our bet of the week comes from the WagerMinds twitter:
A $100 parlay on Auburn and Penn State to win outright would have paid $8,056. Sadly, no one on earth bet it.
— WagerMinds (@WagerMinds) December 1, 2013
Gobble Gobble; Gamble, Gamble
Tomorrow is a day of thanks, where millions across the country will be thanking many countless football players that they’ve never met for helping them win money for XMAS gifts this year.
I also thank the gambling gods to give me 3 reasons to watch these games tomorrow (because some of the talent on the field sure won’t). All of these teams are pretty darn flawed.
GB +7 (-120) at Detroit
Detroit is an undisciplined mess but supremely talented. The Packers also know they need to win this game to get it back to Aaron Rodgers for a chance to win the division/wild card down the stretch, despite having Matt Flynn at QB. It will be a close division game and I am sure someone on Detroit’s defense will at some point be called for an unsportsmanlike penalty call.
Pittsburgh/Ravens Under 41 (-110)
Big game for both teams, with the loser being out for a chance for the craptastic 6th seed in the AFC (which is +250 that team will have 9 or more wins).
I can win a division in fantasy football this week with a 6-7 record, so it’s not like *I* should talk.
Its going to be very windy and cold and raw at night in Baltimore, and these games are traditionally low scoring and close. Add to the fact that Joe Flacco is the most useless overpaid WR in the league, this game should be a yawner (until the 4th).
Parlay: GB +7, PIT/BAL U 41, OAK/DAL O 47 (2 units to win 20)
It’s the holidays, why not!?
Happy Thanksgiving and safe holiday travels everybody!
