Category: NFL

Marathon Parlay

Posted in NFL - 2014/04/21 - 0 Comment

Parlaying the Mets (-105 vs St L) and Red Sox (-160) today at +175.

Fun tidbit on Red Sox Marathon Day gambling history (it’s windy today too):

If only to do so just for an excuse to post this picture:

Wednesday

Posted in NFL - 2014/03/26 - 0 Comment

Nothing doing again tonight with only three NHL games to choose from and the end of the season rapidly approaching. Lots of back to backs to end the year as well further reducing our options in most cases (If both teams played the night before it’s a wash). Vancouver is the best game of the three though it is a marginal lean at best. I will make sure to track leans next to my plays next season. Win totals for baseball also coming soon though sides and totals won’t be available until early May.

Wednesday

Posted in NFL - 2014/03/13 - 0 Comment

Vancouver was a winner in a shootout last night in what I think was their first road win since January.  Nothing doing today in NBA or NHL :(

Olympic Hockey Preview

Posted in Hockey, NFL, Olympics - 2014/02/03 - 0 Comment

Just scored a free Olympic bet from Bovada for betting (too much) money on the Super Bowl.  We had Seattle (like most of America I’d assume) and so did Lou’s dad.  The game wasn’t even close, and the oddsmakers were spot on having Peyton Manning throw a pick at -180 to as high as -230 (disclaimer: we took the juice).

We will choose hockey, as I just don’t know enough about Johnny Weir’s figure skating form to make an opinion about that.

I think Canada is the most talented team in the tournament.  I just don’t think their goaltending (Price starts, Luongo is backup) is good enough.

Russia will find a way to fuck it up.  They always do.  Plus, they are properly hedged with the Russian mafia in any order.  Ovechkin will probably win Golden Goal.

I will be rooting hard for the USA; we have the best goaltending (Quick, Miller) but unfortunately in these “open” Euro rinks, they lack the skaters on the outside to create opportunities to score.  There are also more penalties called in Olympic play, not good for the physical (read: “slower”) teams.  Also, I still don’t know why Okposo didn’t make the team.

Sweden is sneaky good.  Lundquist won a Gold back in Torino, proving once more that he’s a capable and clutch goalie against all teams not named, “The Boston Bruins”.  I’d probably be more bullish if they didn’t lose Franzen.

The Swiss could actually make it out of their group.  That’s a good prop bet.

The Czechs have 4 good lines.  They also have 2 40 year olds who didn’t play defense in their primes (Nedved, Jagr), nevermind now, skittish goaltending…… and Tomas “Olay” Kaberle.  We will be hammering their individual overs.  They’ll score goals, though.

I think the Czechs do however make the final 4….and we can then hedge if they do.  So Czechs at 10-to-1 it is.

2014 Olympic Ice Hockey – Mens Gold Medal 
4:00a
Canada
Russia
Sweden
USA
Czech Republic
Finland
Switzerland
Slovakia
Norway
Latvia
Austria
Slovenia

Executive Decisions

Posted in Basketball, NFL - 2014/01/30 - 0 Comment

NCAA: UCONN -13 vs Houston

Teaser: UCONN -13 and LA Clippers at Golden State Over 213

Super Bowl stuff later in the week*

*Preview: I’m taking Pete Carroll to beat Peyton Manning in a big game and I am completely fucking terrified.

NFC Championship

Posted in NFL - 2014/01/18 - 0 Comment

We have Seattle in an 11-to-10 bet to win the NFC (took this right after they beat the Saints on MNF).  They have made the championship game, and now we have some great hedging opportunities with their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers (who I think are the most talented team left in this tournament, and have been my main bankroll builder in Dec/Jan).

My prediction?  SF 20, Seattle 17.

Bets include:

Super Bowl futures:

SF vs DEN +250

SF vs NE +600

Teaser:

SF (+3) and NE (+4)

SF (+3) and Under (40)

Lines:

SF ML +150

FYI……As a warning Sunday for those who wish to take the Broncos (-4):

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/424307516734844928

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/424941290657021952

UFC Fight Night 35

Posted in NFL - 2014/01/15 - 0 Comment

From Atlanta…Ric Flair is in the house WHOOOOO

Cole “Magrinho” Miller (from Augusta, GA) wins by inside distance +180, fight goes to decision +160

Yoel “Soldier of God” Romero Palacio wins by inside distance -150 (former Cuban Olympic Wrestler.  Guy is simply a beast)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQkoXcNtGcA

T.J. Dillashaw wins inside distance +180 (Duane “Bang” Ludwig fighters.  These guys just simply knock people out)

A shout out to Lou with his two NHL picks (BUF +180 at WAS, winning 2-1 in shootout, and TB +117 as well) that paid for my weekend football drinking.  We will continue our experiment tonight with a total: WAS at PIT Under 5.5 (+105).  The Capitals (22-16-8) have struggled on offense while dropping six of their last eight, including four games in which they managed only one goal.  These are also the two top teams in the East playing before the Olympics; it could be a “Playoff Style” game tonight.  NHL teams play 5-7 of these a year during their outrageously long (84 gm) regular season (most of the time for my Bruins, it is: PIT, MTL, NYR).

We’ll have NFL stuff later in the week, mostly having half of our bankroll on the 49ers in a hedge with our Seattle winning NFL (11-to-10) bet.  BTW our referees:AFC: Tony CorrenteNFC: Gene Steratore.

Saturday

Posted in NFL - 2014/01/11 - 0 Comment

Min post as I am out & about today. NHL Tampa +119

Divisional Degeneracy

Posted in NFL - 2014/01/10 - 0 Comment

And it’s the NFL’s Divisional Round….probably the one I do the worst in over time.  I’ve made such “lock” bets in the past in this round as:

– One way to lose money: betting Jake Delhomme, who was at home (Carolina) versus Arizona, coming off of a thrilling win vs Green Bay (who the oublic had 80% of the money on) the weekend before.  70% of the money was on the Panthers.  Our boy DaGowin, a Carolina fan, declared before the game: “Now ya’ll can see what it is like to watch a real professional football team play the game right”.  Jake Delhomme would go on to throw 4 picks and the Panthers lost 33-13.  He would never play for the team again and only had one more start in the NFL (with the Browns…and that kinda doesn’t count).

– Betting on Peyton Manning in games in this round is always shaky (we all know what happened last year).  I took the Colts vs the Chargers in 2007 (I was convinced that the Brady-Manning game would happen during the Patriots quest for an undefeated season, ala Magic vs Bird in 1986).  Billy Volek, who came in for an injured Phillip Rivers in the 2nd half, played the role of Rob Reed and the 1986 Houston Rockets to upset the Colts.  I also gave the points at home vs the Steelers (and some rookie named Ben Rapethelisburger) in 2005 (which means I didn’t learn my lesson).

It was also the game where this happened:

So my history is dicey in this round, but hey……you can’t correct that if you don’t play!

Saints +8 and in a Teaser with Under 45 at Seattle

I think everyone is a little too bullish on Seattle blowing out the Saints in this game.   Seattle’s offense is somewhat vanilla, and the Saints defense has improved over the last few weeks, and they (IMO) have the 4th best running game in the league (and if Seattle’s defense has one flaw; they can be run on).  The Saints also got their ass kicked the first time they went up there; it’s unlikely to happen again,  right?  What really killed the Saints were the unforced penalties and TOs; that stuff can be corrected.  I think Drew Brees and Sean Payton keep it close in the 1st half, but Marshawn Lynch steals the show and finishes out the game strong, along with some timely Wilson throws.  This bet is also part of a hedge I have with Seattle winning the NFC at 11-to-10.  It would be funny if we had a reverse situation like we had in 2011 (the 7-9 Seahawks faced the 11-5 Saints.  The Saints were an +11 favorite, and lost, mostly thanks to this run)…..bringing about the degen play of the week (brought to you by King Cobra) would be to take the Saints ML at +290.

49ers -3 (+120) at Carolina

I have been riding the 49er train the last few weeks and its helped my bankroll tremendously.   First, they are the best team in Madden 25 (2014)…always an important indicator for me.  Second, they travel well in any environment versus a variety of teams, because they do what good fundamental teams do well: run the ball and play defense.  Third, this will be Cam Newton’s first playoff game.  There might be a good chance he shits his pants.  Kaepernick isn’t the most accurate and a bit wild……but he is a clutch player with big play ability.  The under is at 41 here; considering these two defenses and the injury to Steve Smith I can see that…..but these teams’ defense also create turnovers as well (and good field position), so I’ll probably stay away there.

Plus how can you not be inspired by this guy:

NE vs Colts Under 51

Way too high considering there will be rain and 20-25 mph winds on Saturday night.  Add the fact the Pats will run to possess the ball (especially if they take an early lead), they can and will burn clock.  If the Colts keep it close, the will have to play defense and keep Brady and Co. out of the endzone.  This game could go 30-13 or 27-20.

We end on this nugget:

 

 

 

NFL Playoff Betting Notes

Posted in NFL - 2014/01/04 - 0 Comment

Three interesting nuggets here from the good folks at BetLabs:

And we’ll be taking Indy at that +2.5 now!  Any good reason to bet against Alex Smith and Andy Reid is a gambling opportunity that one must take!  I also like the “FG/Safety is the first score” prop at +135.

Good news for our SF (-3, +105…its now back at EVEN) bet……it also helps that Rodgers plays against Jay Cutler, who is Jeff George 2.0: