Category: NCAA Football
Podcast #4 is up in time for the NFL Playoffs! Lou and I talk the NFL Conference Props, the Wild Card lines for the weekend, and some thoughts on WNBA and NCAA COllege Football Bowl betting (for those of you who care: AND YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE).
Seahawks at Packers Over 46.5
It’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday, but I expect points to be scored in this one as both teams lost big defensive players to injury (SS Earl Thomas for the Seahawks; LB Nick Perry for Packers). RB Thomas Rawls comes back for the Seahawks vs the Packers’ milquetoast run defense. These games are always competitive and back and forth. One of the great slate of games for this week.
Miami -1 (-105)
The Arizona Cardinals make a cross country trip for a 1 o’clock game vs a team who plays in hot weather that got their ass kicked last week. The Cardinals are one of my “Teams Already Packed Up for the Holidays” and will most likely be partying the night before at the various wonderful establishments on South Beach. SS Tyrann Mathieu is out for Arizona. Miami is still in the WC hunt and needs a win, and I expect one here.
Washington -1 (-105)
The Eagles’ young team has been reeling the last few weeks as their lack of depth is now catching up to them. Washington gets super route runner TE Jordan Reed back for this game, and I expect a rebound for Kirk Cousins and company.
Houston +6.5 (-110)
I hate taking this shitty Texans team on the road, but in this shitty AFC South division vs a shitty Colts team where it’s a must win for both of these shitty teams, I expect a low scoring, close, shitty game.
Browns ML +290 and TEASER: Browns +12.5 and Under 43.5
As we talked about on the Miracle Covers podcast a few weeks ago, the Browns win in their schedule comes against the lowly Bengals…and we said this BEFORE they lost WR A.J. Green and RB Geo Bernard. The Browns get Robert Griffin III back (I dunno if that’s good or bad) but they are coming off a bye (in Week 13?) and it either this game, or when the Chargers come into Cleveland in a few weeks, that is the *win* in this season. The Browns are not the 2008 Detroit Lions, IMO the worst team of all time. They are a bad team, but they aren’t *that* bad; at least they have some talent like WR Pryor Sr, LB Jamie Collins, RB Isiah Crowell, etc. It’s also going to be snowing Sunday in Cleveland, so I am going to put the Browns line (+6.5) in a teaser with the under as well. Disclosure: I may have a gambling problem.
GB/SEA Over 46.5
Marc Diakiese vs Frankie Perez Under 1.5 Rounds +145
Max Holloway -200
Pettis missed weight today by 3 lbs this morning. Holloway is the best 145 lb guy in the division now that McGregor has moved up in weight. I’ll pay the juice and Holloway gets the belt here, IMO vs Pettis who is 1-3 in his last 4 fights.
Army vs Navy Under 47
The Under in this game has hit 10 out of the last 11. Also, a good tip: its +EV to take a under in an Armed Forces college derby, as these teams play for the “Commander’s Cup” each time, as well as the fact that Armed Forces team usually have run-heavy option attacks due to recruiting issues.
Baltimore -3 (-125)
This has bounced back from -3 to -3.5/-4 (+105). Miami has been on a roll lately, winning 6 straight…..but they are a flawed team that gave up a lot of big plays to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers last weekend. They are due for a loss, IMO. Baltimore has always played stout at home, and their defense is top 5 in the league and should be able to keep Ryan Tannenhill and Company at bay enough. The only variable, like last week: can the Baltimore offense score enough to cover the line? Against a defense like Miami who is clearly waning in play due to lack of depth (and add in a pick 6 maybe from Tannenhill), I like the Ravens and will give the points here.
New Orleans vs Detroit Over 53.3 (-110)
New Orleans Overs at home have hit at a 66% rate this year, and the two that didn’t hit were only off by a few points. Both of these defenses stink, and the offenses have QBs who are playing at a high level. This is an important game for both teams, so I expect a fun, back and forth competitive affair that also has some fail in between.
Green Bay -7 (+105)
This is more about the juice, and the opponent for the Packers, more so that whether or not they are an actual good team who can cover the 7. The Packers are quite flawed; Rodgers is playing well but his teammates aren’t fans of his showing up his teammates on the field, and both Green Bay’s running defense and offense has been shoddy this year. Rodgers and this team reminds me of James Harden and the Rockets: you have this one great individual player who racks up huge stats each week, but the shortcomings of the team eventually bites them down the road in the playoffs where not even a great scorer can overcome a more balanced opponent. Houston, who somehow still leads the AFC South and is now tied with the Titans, comes into town as one of the worst road teams in the league both in the record and ATS. Houston Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler, who they gave a shit ton of money too, is having his job security questioned by fans and beat writers from some guy named Tom Savage, who I think was in a tag team with the Macho Man back in the WWE. DeAndre Hopkins is on milk cartons across America because he is missing each and every week. Gimme Aaron Rodgers at home here.
TEASER @ +260:
NO vs DET Over 53.5
Parlay Special @ +280:
Green Bay -7 (+105) (NFL)
Univ of Washington ML -380 (NCAAF)
Demetrious Johnson -1000 (UFC)
Rob Font -280 (UFC)
Alabama -7 (EVEN)
TEASER: Alabama -7 and Over 50.5
I think Alabama has the best defense in the country, especially in the front 7 which is important vs Clemson’s read-option game. Clemson could be without top DB, which could mean a big day for Alabama’s #1 WR Ridley. Clemson is coached by Dabo Sweeney…an absolute tool who is always known for his team for choking in the big games (they call it, “Clemsoning”). Edge in defense and coaching = edge for Alabama, IMO.
Marcio Alexandre Jr +150
Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson “Yes, Fight Goes the Distance” -200
Chris Weidman -140
Even though Rockhold is the better athlete, this is the ultimate fighting championship. Weidman’s ability to withstand punishment, keep coming forward, and superior wrestling should wear Rockhold down enough in the later rounds that he gets the W. This will be a great fight.
As the fight nears, these odds have wildly changed thanks to euro donk money as well as sharp money, which is on Aldo…which is why I took Aldo while he was still getting odds. I even know someone with 5 figures on him! This fight started Conor at -170 and Aldo at +140….now it’s a -105 to -115 split. TBQH, I have no idea who will win this fight…the first 4 minutes will be wild and that will probably be the best chance Conor has of major damage. Conor does have two weaknesses Aldo can exploit: a) he’s a southpaw with a wide stance, leaving his lead leg vulerable to Aldo’s devastating leg kicks and b) his wrestling looked shoddy vs Chad Mendes (but will Aldo commit to going to the ground to use his black belt jiu-jitsu?).
This is just more of a “math” play as I feel we are getting odds on a fighter in essentially, a coin flip fight. Also noted: Conor McGregor looked like shit at the weigh-ins yesterday….but he always seems to look like Skelator on weigh-in day. If this fight goes into the later rounds, that might effect his punching power and performance. But this is essentially a “home game” for Conor as the Irish have been mobbing Vegas since Friday.
— UFC (@ufc) December 12, 2015
ARMY v NAVY Under 50 -115
Big fight tonight as Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces Puerto Rico’s Miguel Cotto for a unification title fight.
Canelo is coming off of a blistering KO of James Kirkland, and has only lost once (to Floyd Mayweather in a decision). He has power, but is considered more of a technical fighter like his promoter and former champion, Oscar De La Hoya. He is the younger fighter (25), and the favorite at -260.
Cotto is a legend in the sport for putting on some of the most gruesome fights in the sport. He blooded Floyd’s face in a catchweight bout, and is considered to have a great chin. He’s a zombie who just keeps on coming forward. He is 35 and aging and has hinted he is only going to fight a few more times; his next rumored bout would be against the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now, Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. A win tonight for Cotto would make that fight even bigger. Cotto has lost his last two fights via decision, and has changed his corner man to Freddie Roach (who corners Pacquiao). Roach claims Cotto will KO Canelo, but this is also the guy who said Rousey would KO Holly Holm and we all know how that worked out. He is a +200 underdog.
As for my thoughts? I again like the Over Rounds 11.5 tonight at -160. This line started at -200 and has moved down and I believe we are getting great value here. We have one fighter who has a granite chin and another fighter who is more technical than a brawler. Canelo has improved his power, but I don’t think it will be enough to put Cotto down in this fight (although Cotto’s fighting style will certainly give Canelo opportunities to score). The last guy Canelo KO’d, James Kirkland, is a “KO or be KO’d” type of fighter. While Cotto fights wild, he is also smart enough to pace himself AND has a gifted chin (which is why he is loved by boxing fans everywhere; he doesn’t quit).
I expect Canelo to use his youth in terms of cardio to “box and score” around the ring and make Cotto work to get into the brawling style close quarter exchanges he wants. I expect Canelo to win in a competitive split decision. The fight is in Vegas, so the crowd (and judges) will be on Canelo’s side. Canelo to win by decision is at +110 for those interested.
ND vs BC Under 43
TEASER: ALA -7 and Under 47.5
BOS v MTL Under 5 (+130)
Gustavsson is starting tonight.
A nice fun parlay here; the card is in Brazil and these are all 3 Brazilian fighters. I do like Dan Henderson (+230) in Main Event tonight vs a Steroid-less Vitor Belfort.
UFC Parlay for tonight: pic.twitter.com/riThmjx2rN
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) November 7, 2015
Utah +140 and TEASER: UTAH +3 and Under 60
Clemson/Miami Under 56.5
Memphis +10 (-110)
Penn State First Half +10.5 (-115)
Interesting NCAA betting stat: Underdogs between +7.5 and +10 have gone 496-474 ATS (51.1%) since 2005; whilst Underdogs between +10 and +14 have been slightly better going 651-617 ATS.
NYM v CUBS Over 6 (-115)
NHL: Montreal vs Boston Over 5 +105
TEASER: MSU (-13) and FSU (-7)