Category: NCAA Football
Van Tran while visiting the site and viewing Lou’s most recent picks
“Lou should change the name to ‘Miracle Covers: Losing at Sports.'”
Pastability, let’s take a look at some things…
It was over the Thanksgiving holiday when I remembered one of my favored forms of NFL gambling, which is to parlay the money line on two or three heavily favored teams. Unfortunately it seems that Allen Gowin’s bookie does not really do money line bets which is a shame, but here is an idea for Sunday if you have such capabilities.
Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Diego
With the help of our friends at parlaycalculator.com, you are getting essentially a 2/3 return on bets (one hundred nets you 163 and change). A couple of thoughts on this.
* This may seem obvious as this is a bet centered entirely on winning the game and not covering a spread, but you want teams involved where you say to yourself, “I’m not sure on what’s going to happen, but I simply do not see X losing this game.” Going to the example of this Thanksgiving, Green Bay and Dallas looked very strong to win the game. Some may at that point may have felt like getting a better return on their money by throwing in a Giant addition, but do you really want to bank on an essentially .500 team on the road against a team with a winning record? This may wreak of hindsight but whatever. People might object here that I did not include two heavy home favorites, Minn and Atlanta, in the parlay. But the problem is I could see the Bears and/or the Bucs winning. If you don’t, throw the fuckers in, but for me, it doesn’t pass the crucial test.
* I am not a huge fan of this strategy for college games. The NFL is crazy enough, but when you add nineteen year old qbs and kickers, football can escalate to a new level of weird. Just see some of USC’s recent games in the last few years. However, if you are looking for some recommendations I would stick with proven programs like Boise State (not when they’re 40 pt favorites). Right now on television I am watching Pitt/W Va. How shocking was that a few years ago when Pitt won in West Virginia with W Va playing for the BCS championship? I would have bet my house on that money line.
Some thoughts on the lines this weekend…
I am not guaranteeing I am putting money on any of these games, just some thoughts.
Clemson and Tennessee only giving up three points to South Carolina and Kentucky respectively seems a bit outrageous to me. I might have to parlay that.
I do not have any figures in front of me but I bet there is a decent amount of unbiased money going on the Panthers against the Jets. Carolina is playing very well and 5 Ints are quickly becoming known as “The Dirty Sanchez.” But I like the Jets this week. The Jets are giving three points at home to a hot Carolina team, but the Jets have a very solid defense and Jake Delhomme is due to lay an atomic bomb this week after a month of very good football.
Alabama @ Auburn Under 48
Indy @ Houston Over 47
Philadelphia -3 vs Washington
Cincy -8 vs Browns
I don’t like to go retro when telling this site about my picks, so I will tell you what I have tonight. Two parlays, both spicy.
PARLAY NUMBER ONE
Colorado (+17) @ Oklahoma State w/ NFL Game under
PARLAY NUMBER TWO
Carolina (-3) ((-125)) w/ College game over
If I hit one of these parlays I win a little, both and I am da man. Been drinkin’ since 2 pm. Love and booze.
Before the picks, here’s my tip of the week: Josh Duhamel, if you are going to cheat on your wife, make sure it’s not with a stripper that works at an Atlanta club called, “Tattletales”, and certainly don’t act like you are susprised that news got out after knowing said strip club name.
It’s almost as bad as the Las Vegas SemiPro special teamer who tackles his own punt returner. “Oh wait, he’s on my own team? Shit!”
Onto the picks:
South Carolina/Arkansas under 54
Philly -3 vs Dallas
Betting against Romo on the road? Yes, plz!
Detroit ML +400 @ Seattle
5 to win 25? Why not?
6 pt Teaser:
ATL -4 vs Redskins
CIN +9 vs BAL
So Van Tran got me out of bed this morning to talk college football gambling. And of course this led me to force myself to look at lines and now I am putting 25 “fun units” (dollars) on 3 games. If I lose I curse Van Tran for dragging me out of bed. If I win, I’ll let him off with a warning. The picks are
Central Florida (+34.5) @ Oklahoma
Central Florida is a good program. Their only three losses are to Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Miami, with two of those on the road. Back in Vegas last year I would have taken UCF and to cover myself a bit I would have taken the over which is 49.5. That way the only way you lose both is if Ok wins like 42-0.
Texas A&M @ Colorado (over 57)
I like this because the game is at Colorado, which theoretically means they will be dictating the pace a bit and they have a tendency to be involved in high scoring affairs. And A&M can put up numbers themselves.
LSU @ Alabama (-7.5)
Only reason I am putting money on this is because it is the game of the week and it will be give me something to entertain myself with while working at City Sports this afternoon.
NFL to follow tomorrow…
So I have decided that I want to bet the under on the South Carolina/Tennessee game. Its around 41 I think. But I want to tease it and I really do not like any college games too much so I am going to do the game I played two weeks ago where I try to guess the spread on games. The game where the biggest disparity exists will become Part B for my teaser. This is prefaced, though, where if i forget or didn’t hear about an injury or something and that affects the line I’ll probably back out of that pick and go with another game. As always, lines provided by pinnaclesports.com Real line in bold
Houston @ Buffalo
Right off the bat a game where an injury has major implications. Johnson is supposedly playing, though. Im going to make this line Houston -.5 even though I know that line does not happen. Houston minus 3.5
Browns @ Bears
Browns still a train wreck. Bears minus 10 Bears minus 13
Seahawks @ Cowboys
Cowboys looked good last week. Cowboys minus 7.5 Dallas minus 9.5
Rams @ Lions
Wow and yuck. wuck. Lions minus 3 Lions minus 4
49ers @ Colts
Not sure how Vegas is feeling with the Alex Smith situation, but Colts minus 11 sounds about right. Indy minus 12.5
Dolphins @ Jets
Jets minus 3. This line has to be either 3 or 3.5 Jets minus 3.5
Giants @ Eagles
Eagles minus 3.5, pretty much the same logic as the Jets game. Division rivals = home team field goal favorite in most cases. Giants minus 1
Broncos @ Ravens
How much respect is Vegas going to give the Denver 6-0? That’s the question here. Ravens minus 1 Ravens miuns 3.5
Jags @ Titans
Now going back a few games you just heard me say that biz about division rivals and field goals and blah blah. But this game has to be an exception in my eyes. Jags minus 1.5 Titans minus 3
Raiders @ Chargers
Oakland played well week 1 in this game. Still, this has to be around San Diego minus 10 San Diego minus 16.5
Panthers @ Cardinals
As I was starting this blog I saw Delhomme is starting this week. Cardinal D is looking like a legitimate fantasy option. Cardinals minus 8 Cardinals minus 10
Vikings @ Packers.
Didn’t see the Steeler game last week but it sounded like Favre was gun slinging again at the end. Packers minus 3 Pack minus 3
Falcons @ Saints
The Falcons have been playing pretty suspect the last couple of weeks. Might have to bet this game regardless if the line is right. Saints minus 7.5 Saints minus 10.5
So, according to this I have to bet on Oakland. I don’t love it, but it’s not that horrible. The tease will make the Raiders more than a three touchdown underdog. If they can score two touchdowns against a San Diego defense that has been far from “lights out” this year that should pretty much get things done. Let’s get back on the Oakland express one more week.
Didn’t get a chance to catch many games last week thanks to me and my buddy Greg going to that abortion of an effort the Titans put on Sunday in a 59-0 rout by my Pats. The game, by far, had to be the worst weather I have ever seen a game in. It, however, was an enjoyable experience. The highlights included:
Checking out the 3 story Pro Bass and Hunting Shop in Patriot Place before the tailgate was open. It featured a arcade shooting gallery, a 10 foot fish tank filled with cool looking trout, stripers and bass, sections for both boats AND grills/smokers, as well as a section (in the back, ironically) that sold guns. I got a chance to hold a 9mm Smith and Wesson Gloc, which weighed as much as my head, which enabled me to live out my dream, even for 5 minutes, to feel like Plaxico Burress. Except I didn’t shoot myself in the leg; I left that task to LenDale White later in the ballgame (not only did he fumble two handoffs, but also had to be carried off the field with a knee Maybe its time to get back on the Cuervo train, LenDale).
Our tailgate efforts became an epic fail after about a half hour when the rain started to pick up. Before then, however, we were talking about how cool it was the constituents of Massachusetts voted on decriminalizing marijuana, and how that could lead to it being legal completely in California. The guys next to us overheard, and just handed us a free gram of their homegrown to try!
Then we had to get in the car because the hail started to come. Then the 40 mph winds. Then it became snow, and the temperature dipped about 20 degrees in 45.9 seconds. It was like the weather in the Adrian Peterson Nike commercial. Thank god for satellite radio, beer, and weed to keep us entertained before we got inside.
Then, around 3:30, we headed in. This was also when the storm was at its worst. Winds up to 60 mph. Snow AND sleet pounding our face, as if they were sharp knives thrown by flying ninja monkeys. Walking into the stadium was an adventure, I got blown down from the wind a few times. I saw a girl slip and fall on her ass, and watched a couple of under dressed dudes (one with a hole in his shoe) stave off hypothermia by chugging a flask of whiskey on their way into Gillette. It was awesome and intimidating at the same time. The only thing left missing in our short adventure of a walk to our seats was a labyrinth, guarded by a Minotaur wearing a John Hannah jersey on throwback day, on the way into the stadium.
Once in the stadium, we felt the best thing to do in this winter wonderland was to get a beverage; nothing says, “freeze my nuts off” more like Margaritas, baby! Nine bucks a pop is steep, but they were actually quite delicious. Also delicious were the cheerleaders, dressed up in slutty outfits for Halloween day at the stadium in this horrid weather. Somewhere, feminists were angry, but seeing a 20-something, with a forced smile, getting paid 46 bucks to wear a Wonder Woman thong-outfit dancing to AC/DC’s, “Thunderstuck” while losing the nerves in her feet, makes me proud as an American. We both cheered, “Hooray, America!” and happily agreed (at this point, the smiles were frozen on our face) that this is what our fore fathers fought for.
That song is also the exact point of the game the Titans decided to mentally get back on the bus. I was happy, because this also provided a fantasy freeroll as I have Chris Johnson (who had 104 yds rushing) in my 14-man league, and didn’t have to worry about my selfish monetary conflicts affecting my fandom. This is why I don’t have Yankees on my fantasy baseball team; and also why I have never cashed in any of my fantasy baseball leagues.
There was one play where the Pats where on their 15th consecutive TD drive (they got 33 first downs!), Keith Bullock had to call timeout at the Titans 5 yard line. He just put his hands up in the air towards the Titans bench, placed his hands on his hips, and slowly tilted his head down in epic failure. And it was awesome.
Although on the way home (we left with about 10 minutes left in the 4th), I was listening to the radio call by the Pats play-by-play guys, and have never heard the following from Gil Santos: “Titans on their own 15 yard line, 1st and 10. Snap, Young hands off to Javon Ringer, and he is……oh my, the poor thing……..just swallowed up at the 13 by 7 Patriots defenders. This is awful, just horrible. They really just need to kneel on the ball and pack it in. The kid doesn’t deserve this, he’s just a rookie. Sums just the game right there, Geno.” Geno: “Yup, time for Jeff Fisher to start a drinking habit!” (OK, I made that up, but pretty much implied in that statement).
Although when I got home to thaw out my balls, I had the pleasure of catching NFL Gameday, my new favorite show. I was pleased to hear Rich Eisen, Deion Sanders, and Coach Mariucci snicker not once, but twice, when Eisen was describing Vikings’ TE Visanthe Shiancoe, “popping out on a valve route” or “dangling around the back of the end zone”. It also featured thehighlight 3-block play of Louis Murphy on Zach Miller’s TD catch, which pretty much should be shown to every want-to-be football player in America. Just awesome.
The DeSean Jackson Award of the week goes to Alabama Safety Mark Barron (video around 2:23), who (thanks to going up again inept at times Gamecocks’ coach Steve Spurrier, who should have challenged) threw the ball backwards on one of only 2 TDs in the game (hit the under!). The video doesn’t show it real well, but on ESPN’s reverse wire camera angle, it is clear he throws the ball backwards at around the 1 yard line. Why do kids do this? Is it because the SEC is so nitty on celebrations, that instead of doing a dance, they throw the ball backwards near the goalline? I’d rather take the penalty and the points!
Roger Goodell wants to not only have the Super Bowl in London, but also a team. No, no, and no. Just stupid. The Brits don’t care, they have commie roundball in form of the Barclay’s Premier League to watch. No player would want to play there, the road trips would be brutal (imagine a 10-12 hour road trip to San Diego? What would the line be for the London Tallywhackers, +20?), and the weather is shitty. If they ever have the Super Bowl in London, just call it the Super Bowel, because that is what it would be. How about the rotation of New Orleans/San Diego/Miami/Vegas? So much better destinations!
Onto the picks:
College 6pt Teaser:
LSU -2 vs Auburn
USC -14.5 vs Oregon State
Oakland +6.5 vs NY Jets
Oakland, I guess, IS a professional football team! I have to bet on Louis Murphy’s boys here getting the job done. The Jets are 1-10 in Oakland, their only win coming in the AFL era under Namath in the 1960’s. Not only that, they may start to hate their coach, who seems more and more shaky as they lose each week. Maybe if he didn’t call a team’s gameplan (one that beat him) a “gimmick”, and maybe had a sense of humor like Jeff Fisher, his players wouldn’t be so down on themselves when things start going bad in games. Plus they have no Kris Jenkins, big day for Fargas and Bush, methinks. Plus, Sanchez and J.Russell’s combined QB rating will be at around 19.5…..the under is 34.5 (lol).
Indianapolis -13.5 @ St.Louis
It’s in a dome, off a bye week with Freeney getting healthy, and Bob Sanders is back. And the Colts, unlike the Jaguars, are actually a good football team. I wonder if Mark Bulger says to Kyle Boller, “Hey, you want a few snaps? I have to check up on how Peyton is doing on my fantasy team.”
GB -7/-9 @ Cleveland
I got this at -7 before the flu hit Cleveland’s locker room. Their best player, DT Shawn Rogers, is questionable. I’d still take the 9….. Green Bay knows it needs to beat up on the creampuffs on its schedule to have any shot of making the division close with Minny, who they play in a few weeks in Lambeau.
6pt teaser of the Week:
KC +11 vs San Diego
NYG -1 vs Arizona
Apologies for missing this earlier in the week. From last Saturday and Troy was anywhere from an 8 to 9.5 point favorite:
FIU had just attempted a 4th and goal and didn’t score, that’s where we pick up the action with Troy in the lead 42-27……
Troy ball at 1:37 left in 4th quarter
1st and 10 at TROY 6: TROY penalty 3 yard Delay of Game on Team accepted.
1st and 13 at TROY 3: Levi Brown rush for 2 yards to the Troy 5.
2nd and 11 at TROY 5: Timeout FLORIDA INTL, clock 1:32.
2nd and 11 at TROY 5: Levi Brown rush for no gain, fumbled, forced by FIU, recovered by Troy Levi Brown at the Troy 5.
3rd and 11 at TROY 5: Team rush for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 4.
4th and 12 at TROY 4: Team rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 2.
DRIVE TOTALS: TROY drive: 4 plays -4 yards, 01:33 TROY DOWNS
FIU ball at 0:04
1st and Goal at TROY 2: Paul McCall pass complete to Jason Frierson for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
End of 4th Quarter
You’d think they could waste two extra seconds in there somehow. Troy’s QB must not be on good terms with his defense.
Few thoughts on last week:
I went 1-4 on SEC plays last week (ended up taking the under 44 in LSU/FLA as I was on tilt after near misses early in the day). I ended up breaking even on Saturday thanks to that and the Dodgers sweeping St. Louis, who I had @ +125 WITH home field advantage (Don’t the bookies have ESPN? Where every night/morning SportsCenter would lead off with highlights of Andre Either celebrating with his teammates at home plate with weekly walk-offs at Dodger Stadium? Am I missing something here?).
I however KILLED it on NFL this Sunday, going 5-0 and hitting all of my teasers, mostly thanks to Cincy (now known by Gus Johnson as the “Cardiac Cats!”, and yes, with the exclamation point) helping me complete not only the teasers I mentioned last week, but I also gambled it up with a 4 team teaser at +350 and hit that too. Hopefully I can keep the roll going. Here are some random thoughts on the week:
The Browns winning a game with only 2 completions has to now place the Bills as a lead nominee for “The Darwin Awards”. How can you only score 3 points, at home (granted with some of that swirling, crazy wind in Northern NY) against a team who not only is lacking in talent, but also smarts. Just take a look at this quote from Defensive Captain D’Qwell Jackson:
Browns linebacker and co-captain D’Qwell Jackson was among the most stunned by the Browns 0-3 start. “Every year I think we’re going to go 16-0, so I’m shocked that we’re 0-3.”
I’m not, D’Qwell. Granted maybe you have more faith in your teammates than I do, but seriously, 16-0? At least say something somewhat attainable, like 10-6 or something. The fact you can’t recognize your team blows maybe proves that the dementia that esteemed journalist Malcolm Gladwell wrote about in The New Yorker this week maybe is more of a problem than we thought. I certainly can, and plan to profit off of it!
Dre, this is how it is done (or maybe not….maybe this is where the “Hunter Smith: whitest player” beef came from?).
Poor form, Donnie Avery. Not only do you celebrate with a gay-ish dance after scoring a TD late in the 4th (which is OK I guess, the Rams will be lucky to score 10 TDs this year), down 31-3….you then push away your teammate (former Cowboys Hard Knocker) Danny Amendola, which can’t look good to your teammates, coaches, and the fans of the Rams. And Yes, I will blatantly admit I was giddy to type in the phrase, “Hard Knocker”, all week. Avery gets the Double Facepalm Player of the Week award.
Onto the picks:
Alabama/South Carolina Under 45
Big game in the SEC between two really good defensive teams, and two very vanilla offenses. Only offensive scare will be outstanding Alabama return man Javier Arenas versus a piss poor South Carolina special teams unit.
Jackonsville, -9.5, vs St. Louis.
Mo-Jones-Drew is pissed, St.Louis blows, is 0-5, and has no road TDs, they have the bad karma of Donnie Avery working against them, and Jacksonville is coming off a 41-0 loss @ Seattle. I always remember my dad saying, “Beware of the team that gets blown out a week before and is playing at home. They will play harder the week after, not only for pride, but if anything, to shut the coaches up from yelling at them in the meetings”.
Philly -14 @ Oakland
The aforementioned quote from my dad applies to professional, and even college, teams. Oakland is neither.
Bears @ Atlanta Over 46
This probably gets smashed around the 3rd quarter.
Teasers of the Week (6 point):
KC @ WAS +12
GB -7.5 vs DET
HOU +11 @ CIN
NYJ -4 vs BUF
To start off the week, I give Johnny Knox the DeSean Jackson Award for the most stupid pre-touchdown celebration. He was lucky Detroit, as Lou pointed out, was in the middle of their “worst 2nd half, ever” and didn’t challenge the play (by rule, if Detroit recovers and the whistle is blown, they get the ball at the 1).
The Lions may want to work on their kickoff coverage, maybe they should hire the Bears ball boy.
I have become accustomed to betting (and winning) on SEC division football games over the last year. I usually take SEC home dogs, and also the under. These games are usually intense, full of defenses with players who will play on Sundays, middle-of-the-road teams with an offensive star who usually also gets drafted, and full of football coaches who can recruit, but have no idea how to manage the game or even do simple A-B-C playcalling.
For example, like when Les Miles, on the road in a tough place in Athens and up 6-0, not only decided to go for it on 4th and 1 from the 21 with the most vanilla QB sneak play formation, ever, versus a Georgia team with a strong D-Line (memo to coaches on the road; this means you, Jim Zorn: TAKE THE FUCKING FIELD GOAL), but also decided to kneel on the ball with 11 seconds left and 1 timeout, from the Georgia 33. Instead of trying a TD pass or at least try to steal a long field goal before the half ends, he kneels on it. Instead of it potentially being 12-0, it’s 6-0. This type of coaching is what helps you hit the under.
You must be careful of the referees, however, in college football. They have a way of calling the most ticky-tac unsportsmanlike penalties at the worst times to give bettors a sweat. The unintentional comedy moment of the week was when SEC on CBS analyst Gary Danielson was critiquing the TD “celebration” of an LSU running back in slow motion replay. “Oh, there he is, going to the mouth with his finger, yup, you gotta call that. I guess. He maybe should of went with the Running Man, Verne. It’s more subtle but yet captures the emotion of the moment.”
OK, I made that last part up, but you know what I mean. His main quote that really put the point home was, “the only thing I see excessive is the flags”. Last week, there was not one but two 15 yard unsportsmanlike calls at the end of touchdowns late in the forth quarter that almost resulted in a 6-0 game with 7 minutes to go, turn into a 20-20 game that heads into overtime, killing my under bet of 50. Thankfully, I was betting against Georgia QB Joe Cox, who not only is terrible, but also looks like Fire Marshall Bill from In Living Color. The Tigers held on, 20-13.
One of my SEC plays is Ole Miss +5 at home, versus Alabama. Ole Miss doesn’t play 60 minutes all the time, and Houston Nutt can give bettors a heart attack as evidenced by his “timeout with season on the line, let’s call a screen” debacle. But the Ole Miss Rebels usually pull off one big upset per year in the SEC (most of the middle tier teams do), and Alabama, a team who has limited personnel on offense minus WR Julio Jones, is a prime candidate to put up an offensive stinker on the road. The only worry is Nick Saban is one of the few coaches in the SEC who manages the game properly, but that just means Alabama, if they win, will take it down in a nail biter. I like the Rebels with the points here.
I also have a juicy teaser with South Carolina -4 at home versus Kentucky (by far the worst team in the SEC) and LSU +13.5 at home versus Florida (who may or may not have Tim Tebow). This will be, by far, Florida’s biggest test minus the SEC championship on their title run. LSU has a mediocre offense, but their defense is full of playmakers, including outstanding CB Jordan Jefferson. The under is at 44, which may be a bit low. If Tebow doesn’t play, then I might consider taking that too.
Speaking of South Carolina, if you are ever golfing and hit your ball into the water hazard (I’m talking to you, Allen Gowin), do not, I repeat, DO NOT put your hand in the hazard to get your ball. Although if this does ever happen to you, Allen, I am legally changing your name to Chubbs Peterson.
If you need a reason to dislike the Yankees, this article will give you plenty of reasons to. An article which also touches on the subject of sports slowly creeping away from our culture consciousness thanks to rising ticket prices across the board, and tickets even being used as bribes for business deals, here’s an example of the type of Yankee fan that attends the games today in the best of seats in the Stadium:
Inevitably, one group of equity traders — they worked at Fidelity — got caught. The thing that finally brought the whole thing to a close was a 2003 bachelor party for one of the traders. Everyone heard about it: private jets to Miami, a yacht, a bag of Ecstasy, a warren of rooms at the uber-exclusive Delano Hotel, some hookers, some strippers, some red meat, medium-rare. Oh, and one midget, named Danny Black, to toss off the boat. All told, $160,000 for a weekend at the beach.
“It wasn’t like a three-ring circus,” groused the father-in-law of the groom, disgraced Tyco executive Dennis Kozlowski, to the tabloids at the time. “It was a nice party. There was only one dwarf.”
Now onto the picks for the week:
Cincinnati/Baltimore under 42
Miami +110 Money Line
Seattle Pk versus Jacksonville (if you can find it)
Two 6 point Teasers of the week:
ATL +8 @ SF
NYG -9 vs OAK
CIN +14.5 @ BAL
MIN -4 @ StL