Follow up dap on that game.  A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read.  In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU.  To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there.  Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th.  I quote…

“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.”  Brilliant.

Boxing.  I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite?  So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog.  Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by.  This has to have gambling implications.

I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there.  But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league.  I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league.  3 picks a week.  With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3.  How ugly are those picks?

• Akron (1-7) 3 @ Miami OH (3-5) 35
• Louisville (4-4) 38 @ West Virginia (6-2) 35
• Duke (3-5) 14 @ Miami FL (4-4) 49
• Vanderbilt (4-4) 21 @ Florida (4-4) 26
• Texas Tech (5-3) 20 @ Texas (5-2) 52
• Texas A&M (5-3) 25 @ Oklahoma (7-1) 41

We had created two groups.  Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were teams with clearly better records than their opponent.  The second group of teams had very similar records as their opponent, but were much more likely to generate action from the betting public, explaining their large number.  Both groups went 2-1 ATS.  Conclusion – Nothing to really report.  Florida, following a season long pattern, seems particularly overrated.  Side Note – Notre Dame didn’t cover as 2 TD road fave.

• Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
• Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
• Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
• Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
• Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
• Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)

Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents.  Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations.  Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public?  If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved.  As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things.  I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.

• It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
• There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
• LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
• Vegas is not run by idiots.  They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?”  Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause

With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…

Pick : LSU +4.5

This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game.  Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat.  If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced.  If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one.  So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.

Pick : Cal -3

Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.”  I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS.  If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.

Team A is a very strong team playing at home.  Team B is their even more talented opponent.  Team B is so strong that Vegas puts them as 5 point favorites despite playing on the road against a very, very good team.  The result of the game…Team B beats the hell out of Team A, absolutely destroys them. The game we are concerned with, is the very next week…

Team A then goes on the road to a play a fairly weak Team C.  Team C is not horrible but they are definitely mediocre.  Vegas makes Team A a 6 pt favorite.  The result of the game…Team C beats the hell out of Team A.

Team A was the University of Utah over the last couple weeks.  Were they so dejected by their late season home loss to TCU that they had little chance against Notre Dame on the road?  Something to keep an eye on.  I’ll keep a look out for relevant examples.  Points of interest, college not pro game, at #5 Utah had chance to win out and play in huge bowl game

Follow-ups and excerpts from the Marvin Harrison story.

Jason Fagone also wrote an awesome story on Tim Tebow a few months back.

All these humanizing details tend to take the edge off the fact that Tebow’s entire role-model persona doesn’t work unless he can convey that, fundamentally, he’s better than you: stronger, more capable, more at peace, just basically happier. This is what the people who make fun of Tebow are skewering—his cult of personality. When Obama invited the Gators to the White House earlier this year, the sports blog Deadspin ran a picture of Tebow’s “steely-eyed Manshake” with the president under the cheeky headline our two greatest leaders make a pact to save the world.

But in Gainesville, in close quarters with 52,000 other students, where there’s already a statue of him, seven feet tall, carved from an oak tree—”Tim Treebow”—he’s universally adored. I try to find people to talk shit about him. I fail.

Ichiro! did an extensive interview last week and among other things talked about negativity and not getting fat. He’s probably my favorite active player and it’s not solely because he carries his bats in a briefcase.

A lot of people for a long time have thought that you can’t do this forever. A lot of people were thinking by now Ichiro would be a three hitter, he would be hitting 40 homeruns a year, but you can still do everything you did before. Are you in any way surprised that you are still doing these things and what is your reaction when people say Ichiro is going to move on and become this?

Probably for my style of baseball the key to maintaining it is not to get a gut.

As far as what other people say… The thing is a lot of people who comment about other people, especially people who say negative things about other people, they are not really in positions to be able to evaluate other people in the first place. If we input that information into ourselves more than necessary only negative things will come of that. So it is really about knowing yourself and not being controlled by people who have no value or say. I guess now that we have talked about this I guess you can say that is one key to where I am now is that I have not been swayed by what other people have said.

If you could trade places with anybody in the history of the game for one day who would you like to trade with and why?

(Becomes very animated)

There’s not really a certain who that comes to mind but I think I would like to become a really fat player. (Raucous laughter) Maybe not necessarily fat, but a really, really big player and the reason for that is when I see really, really big players able to perform in baseball I always think to myself how are they able to do that? Because I think to be able to be a good baseball player you have to be able to control your body and for them to have really big bodies and to perform well in this very difficult game of baseball, I am very curious.

Some other people say, ‘You are so small, how come you are able to perform on the baseball field?’ but to me it is only natural because with me I am able to control my movements and my body. For me it is the opposite. Big guys? How are you able to do it? That is a big mystery. (much laughter)

The first half of this Chargers mailbag reads like someone made it up. Actual answer to one of the questions, “I’m going to assume you’re joking. I can’t tell anymore with some of y’all.” Some highlights out of context:

There is a rumor floating around that several Chargers were “partying” .. Saturday night and well into Sunday morning before the game. Can any of this be confirmed?

Regarding Marty, I thought he was just plain stupid. Push come to shove, I take Norv…but I wish he was our offensive coordinator. That is his destiny in life, and that’s ok.

…and Kaeding???The boy can’t seem to handle pressure in the play-offs,that scares me going forward because he’s so darn good in the regular season,how do you justify a switch?I can’t think of a good question,because honestly,I think we’re as good as any team out there,I’m just confused as heck by yesterdays game,GO BOLTS…ALL THE WAY IN ’10…God,I hate baseball season….

I’ll skip this excerpt on this one, but Joe P. telling stories about Buck O’Neil = awesome.

Some NBA action…

Good Josh Smith

And bad Josh Smith (more accurately, why is Jeff Green not in the dunk contest?)

Lastly, here’s a collection of Jack Nicholson enjoying the Lakers this season.

Congrats to Alabama, who somehow held on and covered the 3.5-4.5 vs Texas in the BCS Title game.  Lou made a good point……did ANYONE bet on Texas except for alumni and those from the state?  Maybe they major in Cummunications like the Jeron Johnson of Boise State:

Here is video of a crazy ending to the Florida/NC State Hoops this week

BTW, make sure to get your picks into Miracle Covers before Saturday 4:30, we have about 6 people so far.  Here are my picks for the week:

Bengals -2.5 vs Jets

Everyone and their mom loves the Jets, and I am with Simmons that taking a rookie QB on the road is not the best thing, I learned that last year backing up the truck on Matt Ryan in Arizona.  I mean, the Jets do have the better overall team, but if they fall 10-0 on the road in a VERY cold, windy, and hostile Bengals home crowd, I just don’t see it in Sanchez to give them the throws they need to beat Cincy, even as bad as Cincy looked last week.  Plus everyone loading up on the Jets in good pick’em karma, IMO.

Dallas -4 vs Philly

I really don’t want to pick the game.  The thought of having to decide whether to pick a game where my choices of  teams are coached by Andy Reid or Wade Phillips makes me have seizures. Dallas has dominated Philly so far but it is so hard to win 3 times in a row versus another team.  But the Jackson  injury at center for the Eagles I think is a huge loss because he’d been calling the protections for 7 years straight, and now it’s some rookie who also BTW has to block Jay Ratliff.   I don’t like putting money anywhere near a team who is coached by a “Phillips”,  it’s a heart attack waiting to happen, but Dallas has played their best ball going into the playoffs, and that’s what you look for in betting.

NE  -3 vs Baltimore

I’ll be at this one, and I think the Pats can muster up some Foxboro magic despite losing Welker to eek this out at home.  Flacco has played like crap since Green  Bay game and the Ravens and bengals are the only two teams who can NOT take advantage of the Pats shitty secondary because of their equally-as-shitty WR corps.  Belichick usually takes away what you do well, and that’s Ray Rice for the Ravens.  Take him out, and the Pats should win with home cooking behind them and rally around Wes.

Green Bay +1 @ Arizona

Listen to the Bill Simmons’ Playoff preview podcast and Mike Lombardi made some real good points on how you can take away things from a preseason game and a somewhat of a preseason game in Green Bay’s 67-3 total drubbing of the Cardinals in their last 2 ballgames.  Essentially, the Packers can do whatever they want on both lines of scrimmage, meaning Warner might get pressured into some turnovers.  The Packers 3-4 defense scheme matches up well vs what the Cardinals do, Clay Matthews had 6 pressures last week alone.  The Cardinals may not have Boldin either.  Plus I love taking Aaron Rodgers versus a average defense in a dome.  The only thing that worries me about Green Bay: after Minnesota, they have the worst special teams in the playoffs.  That and the “Arizona is an NBA team” factor as like last year when everyone loaded up against them, they are the only team in football history who can turn the switch on and off from F-level team to SB contender.

Herm Edwards’ advice for Tiger Woods

Thanks to Brian Billick, his adjective for Jay Cutler, “Jeff Georgish”, is now going to be an EXTENSIVE part of my sports vocab on Sundays from now on.  You can even apply it to other things in life, like restaurant reviews: “Heading into an Italian dinner in the North End I was excited, but after having the rubbery pasta, it meal itself was a bit Jeff Georgish.”

Looks like the guys who made the Comcast info descriptions for TV programs don’t try that hard:

At least the Entertainment Division seems to be stepping up it’s game:

Onto NCAA News, congrats to the South Carolina Gamecocks who will face UConn in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, and to the Clemson Tigers who will face the Kentucky Wildcats in the GAYlord Hotels Bowl.  Way to go, fellas!  We’ll keep a close eye on these bowls here at Miracle Covers because quite simply, people who gamble on these games will be the only ones watching them.

Brad Gradkowski blowing out his knee may have saved by Oakland Raiders under season 5.5 bet (they have 4 wins now).  They were playing well under him and even beat Pittsburgh IN Pittsburgh.  Now Oakland has to rely on the Charlie Frye and/or JaMarcus Russell experience.  I think my bet is safe.

If the Cowboys lose the rest of their games in December, I ship my under bet with them as well.  Not out of the realm of possibility.

Here are the picks of the week, I have Jax in a teaser which shipped its end last night if it wasn’t for Peyton Manning, who is a machine.  12-12, 116, 2 Tds in 10 minutes in the 1st half alone last night.  Ridiculious.  I am sure GB will lose by 8 on Sunday.

6 pt Teasers:

Jax +9 vs Colts

GB +7 vs Pittsburgh

and

Denver -7.5 vs Oakland (led by Charlie Frye!)

San Diego -0.5 vs Cincinnati

Dallas/NO Over 52.5

Baltimore -10 vs Chicago (Good thing I got this in on Monday, now at 11)

When this happens in a game, I think that means it’s time for Bobby Bowden to retire.  The play is almost Longest Yard-esque, I wonder if the QB banged his girl or didn’t pay for that lineman’s dinner the night before.

Who would of thought the Miracle of the Year would have came from the CFL?

The Chinese News version on what REALLY happened with Tiger on his adventure of a Thanksgiving.

Ron Artest used to drink at halftime when he was with the Bulls. Thanks to the article on ESPN, I now know that, “Hennessy is a French cognac.”

Last week’s epic Oakland @ Dallas tilt featured both teams having NO turnovers.  I think this is proof that God doesn’t exist.

Here are the lines:

NCAA:

Texas -14 vs Nebraska Big12 Championship

NFL:

Minnesota -3.5 @ Arizona

Detroit @ Cincy Under 42

6pt Teaser

SD -7.5 @ Cleveland

NYG +8.5 vs Dallas

“Lou should change the name to ‘Miracle Covers: Losing at Sports.’”

Pastability, let’s take a look at some things…

It was over the Thanksgiving holiday when I remembered one of my favored forms of NFL gambling, which is to parlay the money line on two or three heavily favored teams.  Unfortunately it seems that Allen Gowin’s bookie does not really do money line bets which is a shame, but here is an idea for Sunday if you have such capabilities.

Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Diego

With the help of our friends at parlaycalculator.com, you are getting essentially a 2/3 return on bets (one hundred nets you 163 and change).  A couple of thoughts on this.

*  This may seem obvious as this is a bet centered entirely on winning the game and not covering a spread, but you want teams involved where you say to yourself, “I’m not sure on what’s going to happen, but I simply do not see X losing this game.”  Going to the example of this Thanksgiving, Green Bay and Dallas looked very strong to win the game.  Some may at that point may have felt like getting a better return on their money by throwing in a Giant addition, but do you really want to bank on an essentially .500 team on the road against a team with a winning record?  This may wreak of hindsight but whatever.  People might object here that I did not include two heavy home favorites, Minn and Atlanta, in the parlay.  But the problem is I could see the Bears and/or the Bucs winning.  If you don’t, throw the fuckers in, but for me, it doesn’t pass the crucial test.

*  I am not a huge fan of this strategy for college games.  The NFL is crazy enough, but when you add nineteen year old qbs and kickers, football can escalate to a new level of weird.  Just see some of USC’s recent games in the last few years.  However, if you are looking for some recommendations I would stick with proven programs like Boise State (not when they’re 40 pt favorites).  Right now  on television I am watching Pitt/W Va.  How shocking was that a few years ago when Pitt won in West Virginia with W Va playing for the BCS championship?  I would have bet my house on that money line.

Some thoughts on the lines this weekend…

I am not guaranteeing I am putting money on any of these games, just some thoughts.

Clemson and Tennessee only giving up three points to South Carolina and Kentucky respectively seems a bit outrageous to me.  I might have to parlay that.

I do not have any figures in front of me but I bet there is a decent amount of unbiased money going on the Panthers against the Jets.  Carolina is playing very well and 5 Ints are quickly becoming known as “The Dirty Sanchez.”  But I like the Jets this week.  The Jets are giving three points at home to a hot Carolina team, but the Jets have a very solid defense and Jake Delhomme is due to lay an atomic bomb this week after a month of very good football.

Alabama @ Auburn Under 48

NFL:

Indy @ Houston Over 47

Teaser 6pt

Philadelphia -3 vs Washington

Cincy -8 vs Browns

PARLAY NUMBER ONE

Colorado (+17) @ Oklahoma State w/ NFL Game under

PARLAY NUMBER TWO

Carolina (-3) ((-125)) w/ College game over

If I hit one of these parlays I win a little, both and I am da man.  Been drinkin’ since 2 pm.  Love and booze.

It’s almost as bad as the Las Vegas SemiPro special teamer who tackles his own punt returner. “Oh wait, he’s on my own team?  Shit!”

Onto the picks:

NCAA:

South Carolina/Arkansas under 54

NFL:

Philly -3 vs Dallas

Betting against Romo on the road? Yes, plz!

Detroit ML +400 @ Seattle

5 to win 25? Why not?

6 pt Teaser:

ATL -4 vs Redskins

CIN +9 vs BAL

Central Florida (+34.5) @ Oklahoma

Central Florida is a good program.  Their only three losses are to Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Miami, with two of those on the road.  Back in Vegas last year I would have taken UCF and to cover myself a bit I would have taken the over which is 49.5.  That way the only way you lose both is if Ok wins like 42-0.

Texas A&M @ Colorado (over 57)

I like this because the game is at Colorado, which theoretically means they will be dictating the pace a bit and they have a tendency to be involved in high scoring affairs.  And A&M can put up numbers themselves.

LSU @ Alabama (-7.5)

Only reason I am putting money on this is because it is the game of the week and it will be give me something to entertain myself with while working at City Sports this afternoon.

NFL to follow tomorrow…

Houston @ Buffalo

Right off the bat a game where an injury has major implications.  Johnson is supposedly playing, though.  Im going to make this line Houston -.5 even though I know that line does not happen.  Houston minus 3.5

Browns @ Bears

Browns still a train wreck.  Bears minus 10  Bears minus 13

Seahawks @ Cowboys

Cowboys looked good last week.  Cowboys minus 7.5  Dallas minus 9.5

Rams @ Lions

Wow and yuck.  wuck.  Lions minus 3  Lions minus 4

49ers @ Colts

Not sure how Vegas is feeling with the Alex Smith situation, but Colts minus 11 sounds about right.  Indy minus 12.5

Dolphins @ Jets

Jets minus 3.  This line has to  be either 3 or 3.5  Jets minus 3.5

Giants @ Eagles

Eagles minus 3.5, pretty much the same logic as the Jets game.  Division rivals = home team field goal favorite in most cases. Giants minus 1

Broncos @ Ravens

How much respect is Vegas going to give the Denver 6-0?  That’s the question here.  Ravens minus 1  Ravens miuns 3.5

Jags @ Titans

Now going back a few games you just heard me say that biz about division rivals and field goals and blah blah.  But this game has to be an exception in my eyes.  Jags minus 1.5  Titans minus 3

Raiders @ Chargers

Oakland played well week 1 in this game.  Still, this has to be around San Diego minus 10  San Diego minus 16.5

Panthers @ Cardinals

As I was starting this blog I saw Delhomme is starting this week.  Cardinal D is looking like a legitimate fantasy option.  Cardinals minus 8  Cardinals minus 10

Vikings @ Packers.

Didn’t see the Steeler game last week but it sounded like Favre was gun slinging again at the end.  Packers minus 3  Pack minus 3

Falcons @ Saints

The Falcons have been playing pretty suspect the last couple of weeks.  Might have to bet this game regardless if the line is right.  Saints minus 7.5  Saints minus 10.5

So, according to this I have to bet on Oakland.  I don’t love it, but it’s not that horrible.  The tease will make the Raiders more than a three touchdown underdog.  If they can score two touchdowns against a San Diego defense that has been far from “lights out” this year that should pretty much get things done.  Let’s get back on the Oakland express one more week.