Category: NCAA Football
There’s sports handicapping, and then there’s handicapping prime-time, nationally televised games. In the first, the sports world is your buffet, it is up to you to pick out a couple of items from dozens of choices. Based on sheer volume, there are going to be lazy lines, or games where info may be difficult to quantify in an algorithm, or public sentiment, or whatever. Not so much, when there is only one or 2 games going on, though. To anyone (including myself) who pops out an overall record, the subsection should be record in games played when the Eye of Sauron is blasting down full force. So sometimes you let others lead the direct attacks on spreads and money lines, while you sneak around to get in on the action. Temple had the #2 pass D last yr in college football. They lose Reddick to the pros, but bring back a decent amount of talent…
Team Total : USF Under 40 -115
Went .500 on Saturday. Couple more plays for holiday weekend…
W Virginia (+5) @ Va Tech (n) WVU has a “havoc-loving” DC as well as 2 very capable safeties, which would seem to spell trouble for opposing teams with an inexperienced QB. Que redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.
Tennessee @ Ga Tech (+3) (n) Ga Tech had more 4 Star recruits this year than in the last 4 or 5 years combined. Positive trajectory. Tennessee meanwhile loses a boatload of talent this year, which should make life difficult for Butch Davis at the onset.
Mostly underdogs. I wasnt going to touch the Nevada/Northwestern O/U but it has gone up something like 9 points since it opened.
Bowling Green +17 @ Mich St Spartys in jail
Wyoming +12 @ Iowa Josh Allen introduced to America
California +13 @ UNC Cal’s offense is based on creating one-on-one match-ups. It apparently thrives in some cases but fails miserably when the opposing D has skill players that win individual battles. UNC’s defense is supposed to be improved but we are banking on them still being a lower tier D
Troy +9.5 @ Boise St According to RotoWorld, Troy “houses one of the most prolific offenses in the Group of 5 behind QB Brandon Silvers and RB Jordan Chunn.” RoWo adds the offense has “as much stability as any in the nation.”
Ga Southern @ Auburn -33.5 Auburn’s Nat’l Champ odds have gone from roughly 50:1 to 20:1 in recent weeks
Arkansas St +14.5 @ Nebraska DE Rolland-Jones goes to town as Nebraska’s weak WR corp fails to get open in time
Vandy @ MTSU +3.5 Excellent WR corp wins against Mason’s very capable D.
Nevada @ Northwestern Under 61
There are some teams to focus on throughout this year.
The Good – OK St (9), Auburn (8.5), Miami FL(9)
The Interesting – ASU (5), Kansas (3), Mich St (6.5), Miss St (5.5), Nebraska (7), Ole Miss (5.5), Oregon St (5.5)
Notice I am posting this after the season has already started for a few teams. I am getting these numbers from a website entitled “Last Minute College Football Team Wins.” This is me screaming at a bunch of horses starting out from the gate “WAIT! COME BACK! DO ANY OF YOU HAVE MEDICAL CONDITIONS?!?!”
The offenses for Oklahoma St and Auburn should be very good. Auburn has Baylor transfer Stidham who many believe will be the difference maker to put Auburn back in the SEC Champ conversation. Miami allowed just 18.5 points per game last season, and they may well be better in 2017…all 8 defenders who recorded at least six TFL and two sacks last season return. Just one bet from this group. Miami FL (over 9)
Did you know there is one team in college football that has had the worst passing D in the country two years in a row? ASU should be in for a lot of shoot-outs, former 5Star QB Blake Barnett transfers in. We are too late to bet on them but a 3 or 4 win season sounds believable, and we will bet accordingly ATS, lot of high scoring, non-covers like last night’s game. I am sure things have improved since, but as of mid May ASU had ZERO recruit commitments for 2018. This looks like a program with a bad trajectory. Speaking of bad trajectories, everybody is getting arrested and/or suspended at Mich St. We will take Mich St (under 6.5)
Kansas @ 3 is insanely tempting. Great DLine stuff, their new OC was co-OC @ TCU during their renaissance. But I think ultimately we are just going to bet them on specific match-ups. They lose a ton of talent in secondary. Bill Connelly notes “massive turnover in the secondary is the strongest predictor of defensive regression.” Nevertheless expect to see Kansas as a pick frequently ATS.
One of the horses I was screaming at is Oregon St, too late to do anything with them but expect them to get better as the year goes on. The “upstart Beavers suddenly have depth at multiple positions” as RotoWorld points out. They lost a bunch of close coin flip games last year, RB Nall could be a beast this year. We will have bets with them moving forward.
Not much insight into Nebraska except they seem quite thin @ WR. This was before Keyshawn Jr was busted for weed. They had a very late decommit who wound up going to Wash St. They also lose a very good, experienced corner Chris Jones due to surgery. Nebraska (under 7)
Who the Hell knows what Ole Miss will do. Shea Patterson should put up great numbers and I would lean towards their over, similar situation with Miss St. Everything you read is positive. New DC is a guy with consistent top20 Defenses in the past when @ Louisville and UGA. A quote regarding their LB Green, “(Green) won’t just take a starting role because of his age, he’s earning it with his play.” Good stuff. Miss St (over 5.5)
TEASER: Clemson +7 and Under 52
Podcast #4 is up in time for the NFL Playoffs! Lou and I talk the NFL Conference Props, the Wild Card lines for the weekend, and some thoughts on WNBA and NCAA COllege Football Bowl betting (for those of you who care: AND YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE).
Seahawks at Packers Over 46.5
It’s going to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday, but I expect points to be scored in this one as both teams lost big defensive players to injury (SS Earl Thomas for the Seahawks; LB Nick Perry for Packers). RB Thomas Rawls comes back for the Seahawks vs the Packers’ milquetoast run defense. These games are always competitive and back and forth. One of the great slate of games for this week.
Miami -1 (-105)
The Arizona Cardinals make a cross country trip for a 1 o’clock game vs a team who plays in hot weather that got their ass kicked last week. The Cardinals are one of my “Teams Already Packed Up for the Holidays” and will most likely be partying the night before at the various wonderful establishments on South Beach. SS Tyrann Mathieu is out for Arizona. Miami is still in the WC hunt and needs a win, and I expect one here.
Washington -1 (-105)
The Eagles’ young team has been reeling the last few weeks as their lack of depth is now catching up to them. Washington gets super route runner TE Jordan Reed back for this game, and I expect a rebound for Kirk Cousins and company.
Houston +6.5 (-110)
I hate taking this shitty Texans team on the road, but in this shitty AFC South division vs a shitty Colts team where it’s a must win for both of these shitty teams, I expect a low scoring, close, shitty game.
Browns ML +290 and TEASER: Browns +12.5 and Under 43.5
As we talked about on the Miracle Covers podcast a few weeks ago, the Browns win in their schedule comes against the lowly Bengals…and we said this BEFORE they lost WR A.J. Green and RB Geo Bernard. The Browns get Robert Griffin III back (I dunno if that’s good or bad) but they are coming off a bye (in Week 13?) and it either this game, or when the Chargers come into Cleveland in a few weeks, that is the *win* in this season. The Browns are not the 2008 Detroit Lions, IMO the worst team of all time. They are a bad team, but they aren’t *that* bad; at least they have some talent like WR Pryor Sr, LB Jamie Collins, RB Isiah Crowell, etc. It’s also going to be snowing Sunday in Cleveland, so I am going to put the Browns line (+6.5) in a teaser with the under as well. Disclosure: I may have a gambling problem.
GB/SEA Over 46.5
Marc Diakiese vs Frankie Perez Under 1.5 Rounds +145
Max Holloway -200
Pettis missed weight today by 3 lbs this morning. Holloway is the best 145 lb guy in the division now that McGregor has moved up in weight. I’ll pay the juice and Holloway gets the belt here, IMO vs Pettis who is 1-3 in his last 4 fights.
Army vs Navy Under 47
The Under in this game has hit 10 out of the last 11. Also, a good tip: its +EV to take a under in an Armed Forces college derby, as these teams play for the “Commander’s Cup” each time, as well as the fact that Armed Forces team usually have run-heavy option attacks due to recruiting issues.
Baltimore -3 (-125)
This has bounced back from -3 to -3.5/-4 (+105). Miami has been on a roll lately, winning 6 straight…..but they are a flawed team that gave up a lot of big plays to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers last weekend. They are due for a loss, IMO. Baltimore has always played stout at home, and their defense is top 5 in the league and should be able to keep Ryan Tannenhill and Company at bay enough. The only variable, like last week: can the Baltimore offense score enough to cover the line? Against a defense like Miami who is clearly waning in play due to lack of depth (and add in a pick 6 maybe from Tannenhill), I like the Ravens and will give the points here.
New Orleans vs Detroit Over 53.3 (-110)
New Orleans Overs at home have hit at a 66% rate this year, and the two that didn’t hit were only off by a few points. Both of these defenses stink, and the offenses have QBs who are playing at a high level. This is an important game for both teams, so I expect a fun, back and forth competitive affair that also has some fail in between.
Green Bay -7 (+105)
This is more about the juice, and the opponent for the Packers, more so that whether or not they are an actual good team who can cover the 7. The Packers are quite flawed; Rodgers is playing well but his teammates aren’t fans of his showing up his teammates on the field, and both Green Bay’s running defense and offense has been shoddy this year. Rodgers and this team reminds me of James Harden and the Rockets: you have this one great individual player who racks up huge stats each week, but the shortcomings of the team eventually bites them down the road in the playoffs where not even a great scorer can overcome a more balanced opponent. Houston, who somehow still leads the AFC South and is now tied with the Titans, comes into town as one of the worst road teams in the league both in the record and ATS. Houston Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler, who they gave a shit ton of money too, is having his job security questioned by fans and beat writers from some guy named Tom Savage, who I think was in a tag team with the Macho Man back in the WWE. DeAndre Hopkins is on milk cartons across America because he is missing each and every week. Gimme Aaron Rodgers at home here.
TEASER @ +260:
NO vs DET Over 53.5
Parlay Special @ +280:
Green Bay -7 (+105) (NFL)
Univ of Washington ML -380 (NCAAF)
Demetrious Johnson -1000 (UFC)
Rob Font -280 (UFC)
Alabama -7 (EVEN)
TEASER: Alabama -7 and Over 50.5
I think Alabama has the best defense in the country, especially in the front 7 which is important vs Clemson’s read-option game. Clemson could be without top DB, which could mean a big day for Alabama’s #1 WR Ridley. Clemson is coached by Dabo Sweeney…an absolute tool who is always known for his team for choking in the big games (they call it, “Clemsoning”). Edge in defense and coaching = edge for Alabama, IMO.
Marcio Alexandre Jr +150
Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson “Yes, Fight Goes the Distance” -200
Chris Weidman -140
Even though Rockhold is the better athlete, this is the ultimate fighting championship. Weidman’s ability to withstand punishment, keep coming forward, and superior wrestling should wear Rockhold down enough in the later rounds that he gets the W. This will be a great fight.
As the fight nears, these odds have wildly changed thanks to euro donk money as well as sharp money, which is on Aldo…which is why I took Aldo while he was still getting odds. I even know someone with 5 figures on him! This fight started Conor at -170 and Aldo at +140….now it’s a -105 to -115 split. TBQH, I have no idea who will win this fight…the first 4 minutes will be wild and that will probably be the best chance Conor has of major damage. Conor does have two weaknesses Aldo can exploit: a) he’s a southpaw with a wide stance, leaving his lead leg vulerable to Aldo’s devastating leg kicks and b) his wrestling looked shoddy vs Chad Mendes (but will Aldo commit to going to the ground to use his black belt jiu-jitsu?).
This is just more of a “math” play as I feel we are getting odds on a fighter in essentially, a coin flip fight. Also noted: Conor McGregor looked like shit at the weigh-ins yesterday….but he always seems to look like Skelator on weigh-in day. If this fight goes into the later rounds, that might effect his punching power and performance. But this is essentially a “home game” for Conor as the Irish have been mobbing Vegas since Friday.
— UFC (@ufc) December 12, 2015
ARMY v NAVY Under 50 -115