Category: Miracle Cover
Thursday Links
The usual linkage including yet another Lady GaGa cover.
As everyone reading this knows, Bills coach Dick Jauron was fired this week. The best explanation as to why came from ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook:
Prior to kickoff [versus Tennessee], Rich Gannon of CBS asked Dick “Cheerio, Chaps” Jauron what Buffalo worked on during the bye. Cheerio Chaps replied he spent two weeks studying film and concluded there was nothing wrong with Buffalo’s strategy, “We just need to improve our execution.” Coaches love to blame “execution,” because this is the same as saying, “The coaches are doing everything right; the players need to perform better.” There’s nothing wrong with our strategy! After spending two weeks supposedly improving execution, Buffalo threw two interceptions returned for touchdowns.
Even the officials fell asleep during Monday night’s Browns-Ravens game.
France needed a miracle cover to beat Ireland for one of the final World Cup places on Wednesday. The World Cup odds prior to the December 4th draw are here.
Sticking with soccer, Baseball Prospectus‘s Nate Silver has helped create a soccer power index ranking the top 100 international teams in the world. It will be interesting to see what gambling opportunities this will uncover for the World Cup.
More than you probably ever wanted to know about how pinball machines are rigged.
The All-Inclusive All-You-Can-Eat Buffet Guide
Lastly, Lady Gaga covers are better at the internet than you.
NFL Week 10 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
First off, I’d like to show some love for Matt Stafford’s Miracle Cover. We might need to add this one to the definitions & examples page as Stafford’s first four picks just weren’t good enough for Seattle to cover. It took a 5th INT returned for a score with under 30 seconds remaining. Ignore the final score for future gambling; Detroit should have won this game handily and it took a Jamarcian performance to give Seattle the win.
The 49ers need to go with a platoon at QB. The Alex Smith we all came to know and love was back on Sunday with three interceptions and a fumble. Shaun Hill needs to start and be pulled whenever SF trails by more than seven points early and/or they need a score in the 4th quarter. Teams do this all the time with running backs and linebackers, swapping out players based on the game situation. Why not at quarterback too? San Francisco is in a perfect position to try this. They’re 3-5 with eight winnable games left on their schedule (CHI, @GB, JAX, @SEA, ARI, @PHI, DET, @STL).
Very, very impressive performance by the Bungles Bengals at home to Baltimore. Their defense is excellent and held the Ravens to 210 yards offense for the day. Joe Flacco was under pressure all day, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall were excellent, and Baltimore couldn’t run effectively enough to respond. Baltimore has serious issues on defense and look a lot like the Falcons. They will go as far as their quarterback and defensive scheme can take them.
Lastly, I’d like to propose that DeAngelo Hall be allowed to face the Falcons every season. Not only is he kind enough to play 10-12 yards off the line on nearly every play, he also managed to get in a fight with his old team again AND attempt a tackle as pathetic as Jeff Reed’s on Percy Harvin a few weeks back. Yet another reason to love Falcons coach Mike Smith as tight end Justin Peele has to pull his coach out of the scrum on the Atlanta sideline. Watch the video here.
Stats of the Week
1) Sunday’s loss to the Falcons was the first time the Redskins have allowed over 30 points in a game since their January 2008 playoff loss against Seattle (23 games). The Redskins have yet to score more than 17 points in any game this season.
2) Sack Watch: Aaron Rodgers was sacked six times in Green Bay’s loss to Tampa Sunday, putting him at 37 through 8 games. David Carr has the NFL record of 76.
3) Tennessee is 9-2 all-time when Chris Johnson scores a touchdown. He easily leads the NFL in rushing yards (959) and yards/attempt (6.7).
4) The Titans have zero turnovers in the two games Vince Young has started at QB.
5) Kansas City and Miami both lost Sunday despite having zero turnovers. NFL teams are collectively 40-10 this season when not turning the ball over (3 games have seen no turnovers by either team).
6) Dallas Clark’s 14 receptions on Sunday tied a Colts record set twice by Marvin Harrison in 1999 and 2002.
6b) Peyton Manning was 19-25 passing…in the first quarter. He ended the first half with 40 pass attempts.
7) Randy Moss has 8 touchdowns in 5 games against the Dolphins as a member of the Patriots. Touchdown #8 game on this play.
8) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-4.
9) Tampa’s win over Green Bay was their first in 12, dating back to November 30th, 2008 over New Orleans. On that date, their record was 9-3.
9b) Tampa’s kickers are a combined 3 for 9 on field goals this season.
10) Minnesota is currently a 17 point favorite at home to the Lions this week. Assuming it holds, it will be the largest spread of the season.
Early Leans
Not a lot out there early. Maybe this will be my bye week so I can’t set any more money on fire.
New England +3 @ Indianapolis
This will likely be a big public play as Indy looked bad in their win over Houston. That doesn’t change the fact that they have problems with good teams that are bigger than them and can rush the passer (Tony Ugoh had help all day at left tackle).
New Orleans @ St. Louis +14
I don’t want to bet this, but probably will anyway.
Teaser Miami -2.5 v Tampa & Arizona -2 v Seattle
Lots of money coming in on Miami so this line will probably move to 9.5 or 10 making this teaser useless.
NFL Week 8 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
Fun times on Sunday in two of the few competitive games of the day. Both New Orleans and Pittsburgh clinched miracle covers in the final two minutes of their games by returning an interception for a score. Pittsburgh’s cover was thanks to Minnesota’s Chester Taylor and Brett Favre.
Favre didn’t look like he was having much fun out there when he slid at Keyaron Fox’s feet on the return without actually making contact with him. Admittedly, it was only the second worst “tackle” of the game.
Miami’s failing was even more special. Not only were the Fins (+7) winning by 10 real points to start the 4th quarter, New Orleans was kind enough to miss an extra point on their go-ahead touchdown AND kick a field goal from Miami’s 3 on their next drive to make the score 40-34 with 3:20 to play. Then Chad Henne stepped in (skip to 5:00 minute mark).
Stats of the Week
1) Sunday was only the second time in Alex Smith‘s career he has thrown 3 touchdown passes in a game, the other in 2006 versus Oakland. He replaced Shaun Hill at halftime for the 49ers and has been named the starter for next week’s game at Indy.
2) The Carolina Panthers have 21 turnovers in six games.
3) Miami’s 34 points were the most by a losing team in over a year (35 by the Cardinals losing in week 4 last season to the Jets).
4) Despite having only three penalties for 22 yards against Carolina Sunday, the Bills are still the most penalized team in the league averaging 71.57 penalty yards per game. #2? The Saints at 71.1.
5) The Arizona Cardinals have the league’s #1 run defense, allowing 3 yards/carry and 67.5 yards/game.
6) Redskins QB Jason Campbell has 10 fumbles already this season.
7) New Orleans has scored 45 points or more in four of their six games this season.
8) The Atlanta Falcons have never won a game under Mike Smith when trailing at halftime.
9) Derek Anderson’s first quarter against the Packers – 5/6 for 69 yards. His line for the day – 12/29 for 99 and an INT.
10) Road favorites were 7-1 this weekend. The one loser was Chicago (-1) at Cincy.
Week 8 Early Leans
I went 0-2-1 last week thanks to Shaun Hill and the Saints miracle cover. I sincerely hope no one is following my picks at this point. These are leans which may or may not be worse than what I end up going with on Friday/Saturday.
Houston @ Buffalo +3.5
Minnesota @ Green Bay -3
Tennis Gambling
Story about how a surge of gambling went on during a WTA event when microphones picked up a father telling his 6th ranked daughter to retire due to injury. There was commotion as gamblers used the info to bet live and heavily on the other girl, with many calling this unethical. Random commenter on espn.com and possible future blogger on miraclecovers.com summed things up nicely
“I don’t want to live in a world where I can’t place bets online for overseas women’s tennis.”
Truer words rarely spoken. The girl retired when leading 7-5, 5-0, miracle cover, with the aid of technology.
Troy – Florida International (FIU) Miracle Cover
Apologies for missing this earlier in the week. From last Saturday and Troy was anywhere from an 8 to 9.5 point favorite:
FIU had just attempted a 4th and goal and didn’t score, that’s where we pick up the action with Troy in the lead 42-27……
Troy ball at 1:37 left in 4th quarter
1st and 10 at TROY 6: TROY penalty 3 yard Delay of Game on Team accepted.
1st and 13 at TROY 3: Levi Brown rush for 2 yards to the Troy 5.
2nd and 11 at TROY 5: Timeout FLORIDA INTL, clock 1:32.
2nd and 11 at TROY 5: Levi Brown rush for no gain, fumbled, forced by FIU, recovered by Troy Levi Brown at the Troy 5.
3rd and 11 at TROY 5: Team rush for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 4.
4th and 12 at TROY 4: Team rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 2.DRIVE TOTALS: TROY drive: 4 plays -4 yards, 01:33 TROY DOWNS
FIU ball at 0:04
1st and Goal at TROY 2: Paul McCall pass complete to Jason Frierson for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
Score: 42-33
End of 4th Quarter
You’d think they could waste two extra seconds in there somehow. Troy’s QB must not be on good terms with his defense.
Thursday Links
It comes down to this: As a franchise, what do you aspire to be? If “world champion” is your answer, you cannot tolerate or coddle role players who botch bunts, run the bases poorly and miss signs or cutoff men — brainless mistakes that cost you runs, and games, especially against the monsters of the American League East.
Really cool old story on/by Shoeless Joe Jackson.
Grown ups screwing things up.
Fantastic breakdown of Ed Reed’s interception of Carson Palmer last week.
Antonio Pierce on playing the Raiders:
There was no vibe of trying or effort from the Raiders at all from a defensive standpoint against their offense. We’re getting three-and-outs. You don’t hear nobody [saying], ‘Hey, let’s go!’ trying to pick the guys up, rallying them, getting guys fired up. There was nothing. It was quiet. A guy gets sacked or somebody gets beat, they just get up. It’s not like there’s yelling or no kind of [emotion] about the way they were playing.
It was shocking to be out there in that game and get that kind of feeling.
Oakland is only getting two touchdowns at home to Philly on Sunday. There’s an argument that the bottom teams this year aren’t that bad. Try explaining that to this guy.
How smart bettors are identified. “It’s not the amount that usually moves a line, but rather the ‘face’ behind the action.”
Spanish soccer, fun for everyone:
This week, UEFA are reported to be investigating [Rayo Vallecano], along with Las Palmas, as their Round 41 league tie from the previous season is on the governing body’s 40 game, match-fixing dodgy list.
UEFA are basing their suspicions on these ties on irregular betting patterns….
The match itself came at the tail end of the Spanish season and gave the Canary Islanders the point needed to survive in the Segunda A division and the Rayo goalkeeper the top stopper award.
Wednesday’s edition of Mundo Deportivo explains exactly what happened by reporting that “the game ended 0-0 with barely two shots on target and shouts of “friends forever” from the Las Palmas stands.”
If the investigation shows that match-fixing was involved in the affair then the punishment could be severe – in the “both squads spending the weekend with the Dallas Cowboys cheerleading team” sense of the word.
Mundo Deportivo reports that any guilty party would receive no more than a three point deduction as a slap on the wrists.
And this is because sporting fraud isn’t a actually a crime in Spain.
Also fun is qualifying for the World Cup. The US scored with only 10-men in stoppage time to tie Costa Rica 2-2 last night and sent Honduras through in the process. The video has Honduran fans celebrating the miracle cover. Johnathan Bornstein – Honduran Hero.
Most entertaining coach ever
But certain people who have not supported me, and you know who you are, can keep sucking.
IGN is counting down the top 100 Nintendo games of all time.
Perhaps the most interesting tidbit of all about Duck Hunt, however, was the stand-alone product’s incredibly small size. The entire game fit on an infinitesimally small cartridge sized at 192 kilobits.
That’s smaller than the average excel files I deal with at work. You can play what’s sure to be ranked #1 (and the best video game ever) here.
Lastly, always remember that Chris Bosh is better at the internet than you.
Week 4 Rambling Drill
We almost had a miracle cover last week, but it was Jake Delhomme and the Panthers trying to cover the 6.5 as they drove down the field, trying for a meaningless touchdown late in their 21-7 loss to the Cowboys. This was maybe one of the worst games, if not only the year, but also the century, and I was not a better man for watching it (although I somehow faded F.Jones, S.Smith, and D.Williams in my fantasy games. Thank you, shitty football teams).
Speaking of mediocrity, Lou suggested this week during a Kelly’s Roast Beef run, wouldn’t it be fun if Sports Illustrated, as they do for champion teams, offered a video package for losing teams as well? Imagine the hilarity that would ensue! You are watching the MNF on ESPN, and suddenly a commercial comes on: “Mets fans! Subscribe or renew your SI package now, and get for free, “Epic Fail: The Story of the 2009 New York Mets! Call within the next 30 minutes, and get an autographed picture of Mets’ 2B Luis Castillo dropping a fly ball 3rd out at second base versus the Yankees!”
Some other suggestions include:
“Oh Butters!: The Story of the 2009 Cleveland Indians. Call within 25 minutes, and get a glove signed by Jhonny Peralta that has a large hole in it.”
“What the Fuck is Going On?: The Story of the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs/Oakland Raiders. Two crappy teams for one low price (although video is the same length due to lack of highlights)! Call now and get a ticket to attend sensitivity training with Raiders’ coach Tom Cable and Chiefs’ coach Todd Haley!”
“Different Coach, Same Ole’ Shit: The Story of the 2009 Cleveland Browns. Call within 30 minutes, and not only will you get an autographed picture of Braylon Edwards welcoming you to the locker room, one lucky caller will get a chance to coach the Browns for the final game of the season after Eric Mangini gets fired! Call today!”
We did have a miracle cover in football land, however it wasn’t in Pro or College football. In an epic high school football tilt in Vermont between Mt.Mansfield and Otter Valley (+3) ended in a last second touchdown for Mt.Mansfield, securing the win and the miracle cover. Somewhere out there, DeSean Jackson feels a little better about himself. So does Jake Delhomme; at least when he throws the ball away, he’s throwing it forward.
Finally before the picks, me, Lou, and the Degen Boys headed out for some Friday Night Football in Cambridge to see the Brown Bears (+3, as set by our own crew, although Darts argued that it should of been +4. We also had the over/under line move 2 and half points in 1.5 seconds; that’s what happens when degens are riding dirty (#6) to a college football game) take on the Harvard Crimson.
Harvard ended up holding on at the end of the game, 24-21, as Brown, who (I guess) had a shitty field goal kicker, decided to throw a Hail Mary instead of kicking a 42 yard field goal in the waning seconds. Brown’s main problem was they could only run it with consistency, not throw it, with their “White Cat” attack: a WildCat formation that featured all 11 players being white. A Rams fan at the bar suggested we call this personnel package: “The Snow Leopard”. Done and done.
Here are my picks for the week:
Indianapolis +10.5 vs Seattle
The Colts will destroy this team at home. Their offense is playing great, and Seattle is led by Seneca Wallace and Jim Mora Jr. After reading Lou’s blurb on the Seahawks, that’s all you need to know to put money down.
Oakland @ Houston Over 42
Oakland has a shitty offense, but both teams have shittier defenses. I see the Texans winning, 40-17.
6 point Tease of the Week:
Miami +8 vs Buffalo
NYG -3 @ KC Chiefs
West Virginia – Colorado Miracle Cover
Didn’t get this posted last night, but I took WVU -16.5 at home to Colorado last night on the basis of a couple of text messages from some gambling friends who are good at this whole college thing. The four of you who were following on Twitter know what happened:
4th Quarter – 2:00
TD West Virginia 35 – Colorado 17
Ryan Clarke 8 yd. run (Tyler Bitancurt kick)4th Quarter – 0:03
TD West Virginia 35 – Colorado 24
Markques Simas 20 yd. pass from Cody Hawkins (Aric Goodman kick)
The WVU defender on the last play actually did a 360 in the air while not making any contact with the receiver or the ball. He looked more like a figure skater than a cornerback.
NFL 2 Minute Ramble Drill
Few thoughts about last week’s games:
We had 2 miracle covers on Sunday. First was by the Baltimore Ravens (-13), who decided to run it in from 4th an inches from the goal line versus Kansas City on Sunday. The meaningless TD helped them cover, 38-24. Thanks John Harbaugh (who had to know the line!), I owe you a beer.
The second was bad for the site, as the Washington Redskins, who seem to only find offense when they need to cover the spread, amazingly covered versus the New York Giants (+6.5). Down 17-3, they decide their first TD of the year needs to be scored by the punter, Hunter Smith, on a fake FG attempt. Deion Sanders called Hunter Smith the whitest guy to ever score a TD in the NFL; Cap Boso must be pissed. Then, down 23-10, the Redskins drive down the field versus a prevent Giants defense and Chris Cooley scores a semi-meaningless TD with 1.34 left, covering the 6.5 points. What a cooler, sorry Lou.
I also owe a beer to both the Bills’ Dick Jauron and Leodis McKelvin, who some how found a way to give the Patriots that game on Monday night. Where was Dick Jauron on the sidelines telling him NOT to run right into the Patriots defense, especially when the Bills have their hands team up awaiting an onsides kick? Having Leodis just down the ball in the endzone wasn’t the optimal play, either (although better than what happened). The Pats had 3 timeouts and a 2 minute warning stoppage as there was 2:06 left on the clock. The smart football play would be to catch the ball, run around for 6 seconds, and get down. That way, the Bills only need 10 yards to win the game, even if they have the ball on their own 10 yard line. The Pats will use the 3 timeouts, and at worst, the Pats at best get the ball back with about :57 seconds left. How do professionals getting paid millions not know this? I know this from my extensive Madden experience; and I’m high most of the time doing it!
Either way, I feel that if the Bills lose another close game, Dick Jauron is going to react like Cathy Pondexter of the Phoenix Mercury (video on the right).
I really hope the Brandon Stokely miracle TD versus the Bengals on Sunday doesn’t affect my season under bet. At least I got another fantastic Gus Johnson call out of it. Gus, btw, is in the works to be calling The 1st Annual Wii Golf tournament, The Castle Open at Everett St, later this year.
Drinking game of the week: Watch this Sunday’s game between the Eagles and the Saints. What you do is every time Eagles QB Kevin Kobb throws an incompletion, you drink. If it’s an interception, then 2 drinks. A TAINT (INT returned for a TD)? 6 drinks. You can also do a pool where you get 4 buddies and everyone picks a quarter, and the quarter that Kobb gets taken out of, everyone who didn’t pick that quarter has to drink a beer. If he actually by the miracle of God finishes the game, every one has a social beer. Fun for the entire family!
Onto the Picks:
San Francisco (Pick’em) at home versus Seattle
Home opener, coming off a big win versus the Cardinals in Week 1. Mike Singletary and his stopwatch know it’s time to take a hold of the division. Plus Seattle, coming off a preseason win in Week 1 versus the Rams (who are that bad), is banged up even more with Seattle WRs T.J. Houshmanzadeh (back spasms) and Deion Branch (vagina) questionable. I see the Niners playing mistake free football again and winning a tight one at home. I mean, you better run your ass off if you are on the 49ers……Mike Singletary IS timing you.
NYG +2.5/+120 Money Line
Take the points or the spread, either way, the Giants are going to win. They have played well there under Coughlin during his tenure, and the Cowboys have a bandwagon following again after destroying a weak Buccanneers team in Week 1.
Cleveland/Denver Over 37
Both teams’ QBs did not play as bad, or as good, as their stats indicated last week. Both teams have enough offensive talent to score 24 a piece on each other. Do not let the Broncos’ defense fool you; they are still terrible when they don’t play Cincinnati, just look at Jay Culter, who sucked in Week 1 versus Green Bay, tearing them up in the preseason game 3 weeks ago. The Browns have a long way to go, and are still tired after Adrian Peterson stiff-armed their entire team last Sunday.
Teaser of the Week:
Green Bay -3.5 vs Cincinnati/ Detroit +16 vs Minnesota
And folks, our first “miracle cover” of the football season
via Jon Troisi on Twitter (found this via google trying to find the Miracle Covers Twitter lol):
“First miracle cover of the year. Meaningless TD run wit 6 seconds left in the Ole Miss/Memphis game.”
Boxscore; line was Ole Miss -28
