Category: Miracle Cover

Miracle Covers Podcast #2: MLB Playoffs, NFL Season Props, and NFL Week 6 Lines

Lou and I are back with another podcast! We discuss the MLB Playoffs, some NFL Season props like Division/Conference winners and the MVP race, and we talk about who we like in next weeks’ games.

Miracle Cover Sunday

If you ever read a story with the words, “Floyd Mayweather did well,” combined with, “Vegas bookmakers lost…” it probably holds true that Lou also lost money on the same events.

Two last-second interceptions returned for touchdowns by the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals delivered million-dollar blows to Las Vegas sports books, including a $600,000 hit from boxing champ Floyd Mayweather Jr.

I was lamenting ending up with a poor line for both the Jets and Washington, but it didn’t make a difference in the end.  I shrugged my shoulders at the Geno Smith INT in the early games, but was a bit flustered after INT #2 in the afternoon, especially as I thought Arizona had run out the clock.  I also think I saw a 23-20 final posted at some point.  I’m reminded of the day 4-5 years ago when I refused to let Sean & Pat leave the bar with the Lions down 10 (but covering) in Seattle with under a minute to play and no other games to be found because “I was sweating a Matt Stafford Pick-Six.”  He promptly threw said interception two plays later and I went home winless that day too.

And it was a miracle cover.

Four games in hockey including Avs-Bruins which has already started.  No plays out of the bunch.  Kansas City might be playable in baseball but it’s far too early to tell and will be close if it turns out to be good.  Rams are the side to be on tonight at home to San Francisco and I’ll update if I end up taking them.

UPDATE: 49ers @ Rams +4 -115 Good price and a good line, we’ll see if the result works out.


Wonderful time of year

With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!

Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:

That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey.  Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.

In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS.  A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.


Miami -3 (+105) v BAL

Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road.  Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds.    And we’re gambling….

Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET

Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic).  Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.

PHI v NY Giants Over 53

These defenses stink

San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK

Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling!  Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.

JAX at St Louis (tie)

I wish I could bet this as a tie.  No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.

Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:

Holiday Tease

Merry Christmas everybody!  Been away for a while as I had some login issues, traveled to Vegas, and was crowned a drinking champion along with Jaguars LB Eric Alexander.  I’ve also been logging my bets on:

Follow me there for daily bets, quips, and intelligent thoughts that are 160 characters or less.

I’ve been doing well this year, batting .695 for the year.  I was at .775, but I’ve been miracle covered the last few weeks (including The Debacle on a Thursday Night in Tennessee when the Titans scored a TD with NO time left to lose 30-28…….the last drive of that game deserves a column on its own).

Today’s tease: Miami Heat +7 and the Over for the Dallas/Cardinals game 39.   I finally have a reason to root for The Douche 3, as nothing trumps my disdain more for Lebron, than the Lakers.

I also took the Ravens @ -3.5 on Monday; I just don’t see them losing this game with so much on the line.  I’ll have more thoughts going into this Sunday about the Packers, and the Jets, who considering how there season has gone along with the foot-fetish news with Rex Ryan, are fans of the agony of victory, and the THRILL of defeat.

On a final note, I got some new games for the XBOX 360 today.   Just played some capture the flag with Chad Ochocinco on Call of Duty: Black Ops.

And as you all know, I have a great love for sports games, so I am really excited to start a season in this title below later:


Thursday Links

The usual linkage including yet another Lady GaGa cover.

As everyone reading this knows, Bills coach Dick Jauron was fired this week. The best explanation as to why came from ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook:

Prior to kickoff [versus Tennessee], Rich Gannon of CBS asked Dick “Cheerio, Chaps” Jauron what Buffalo worked on during the bye. Cheerio Chaps replied he spent two weeks studying film and concluded there was nothing wrong with Buffalo’s strategy, “We just need to improve our execution.” Coaches love to blame “execution,” because this is the same as saying, “The coaches are doing everything right; the players need to perform better.” There’s nothing wrong with our strategy! After spending two weeks supposedly improving execution, Buffalo threw two interceptions returned for touchdowns.

Even the officials fell asleep during Monday night’s Browns-Ravens game.

France needed a miracle cover to beat Ireland for one of the final World Cup places on Wednesday. The World Cup odds prior to the December 4th draw are here.

Sticking with soccer, Baseball Prospectus‘s Nate Silver has helped create a soccer power index ranking the top 100 international teams in the world. It will be interesting to see what gambling opportunities this will uncover for the World Cup.

More than you probably ever wanted to know about how pinball machines are rigged.

The All-Inclusive All-You-Can-Eat Buffet Guide

Lastly, Lady Gaga covers are better at the internet than you.

NFL Week 10 Early Leans & Stats of the Week

First off, I’d like to show some love for Matt Stafford’s Miracle Cover. We might need to add this one to the definitions & examples page as Stafford’s first four picks just weren’t good enough for Seattle to cover. It took a 5th INT returned for a score with under 30 seconds remaining. Ignore the final score for future gambling; Detroit should have won this game handily and it took a Jamarcian performance to give Seattle the win.

The 49ers need to go with a platoon at QB. The Alex Smith we all came to know and love was back on Sunday with three interceptions and a fumble. Shaun Hill needs to start and be pulled whenever SF trails by more than seven points early and/or they need a score in the 4th quarter. Teams do this all the time with running backs and linebackers, swapping out players based on the game situation. Why not at quarterback too? San Francisco is in a perfect position to try this. They’re 3-5 with eight winnable games left on their schedule (CHI, @GB, JAX, @SEA, ARI, @PHI, DET, @STL).

Very, very impressive performance by the Bungles Bengals at home to Baltimore. Their defense is excellent and held the Ravens to 210 yards offense for the day. Joe Flacco was under pressure all day, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall were excellent, and Baltimore couldn’t run effectively enough to respond. Baltimore has serious issues on defense and look a lot like the Falcons. They will go as far as their quarterback and defensive scheme can take them.

Lastly, I’d like to propose that DeAngelo Hall be allowed to face the Falcons every season. Not only is he kind enough to play 10-12 yards off the line on nearly every play, he also managed to get in a fight with his old team again AND attempt a tackle as pathetic as Jeff Reed’s on Percy Harvin a few weeks back. Yet another reason to love Falcons coach Mike Smith as tight end Justin Peele has to pull his coach out of the scrum on the Atlanta sideline. Watch the video here.

Stats of the Week

1) Sunday’s loss to the Falcons was the first time the Redskins have allowed over 30 points in a game since their January 2008 playoff loss against Seattle (23 games). The Redskins have yet to score more than 17 points in any game this season.

2) Sack Watch: Aaron Rodgers was sacked six times in Green Bay’s loss to Tampa Sunday, putting him at 37 through 8 games. David Carr has the NFL record of 76.

3) Tennessee is 9-2 all-time when Chris Johnson scores a touchdown. He easily leads the NFL in rushing yards (959) and yards/attempt (6.7).

4) The Titans have zero turnovers in the two games Vince Young has started at QB.

5) Kansas City and Miami both lost Sunday despite having zero turnovers. NFL teams are collectively 40-10 this season when not turning the ball over (3 games have seen no turnovers by either team).

6) Dallas Clark’s 14 receptions on Sunday tied a Colts record set twice by Marvin Harrison in 1999 and 2002.
6b) Peyton Manning was 19-25 passing…in the first quarter. He ended the first half with 40 pass attempts.

7) Randy Moss has 8 touchdowns in 5 games against the Dolphins as a member of the Patriots. Touchdown #8 game on this play.

8) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-4.

9) Tampa’s win over Green Bay was their first in 12, dating back to November 30th, 2008 over New Orleans. On that date, their record was 9-3.
9b) Tampa’s kickers are a combined 3 for 9 on field goals this season.

10) Minnesota is currently a 17 point favorite at home to the Lions this week. Assuming it holds, it will be the largest spread of the season.

Early Leans

Not a lot out there early. Maybe this will be my bye week so I can’t set any more money on fire.

New England +3 @ Indianapolis

This will likely be a big public play as Indy looked bad in their win over Houston. That doesn’t change the fact that they have problems with good teams that are bigger than them and can rush the passer (Tony Ugoh had help all day at left tackle).

New Orleans @ St. Louis +14

I don’t want to bet this, but probably will anyway.

Teaser Miami -2.5 v Tampa & Arizona -2 v Seattle

Lots of money coming in on Miami so this line will probably move to 9.5 or 10 making this teaser useless.

NFL Week 8 Early Leans & Stats of the Week

Fun times on Sunday in two of the few competitive games of the day. Both New Orleans and Pittsburgh clinched miracle covers in the final two minutes of their games by returning an interception for a score. Pittsburgh’s cover was thanks to Minnesota’s Chester Taylor and Brett Favre.

Favre didn’t look like he was having much fun out there when he slid at Keyaron Fox’s feet on the return without actually making contact with him. Admittedly, it was only the second worst “tackle” of the game.

Watch Jeff Reed’s Tackle

Miami’s failing was even more special. Not only were the Fins (+7) winning by 10 real points to start the 4th quarter, New Orleans was kind enough to miss an extra point on their go-ahead touchdown AND kick a field goal from Miami’s 3 on their next drive to make the score 40-34 with 3:20 to play. Then Chad Henne stepped in (skip to 5:00 minute mark).

Stats of the Week

1) Sunday was only the second time in Alex Smith‘s career he has thrown 3 touchdown passes in a game, the other in 2006 versus Oakland. He replaced Shaun Hill at halftime for the 49ers and has been named the starter for next week’s game at Indy.

2) The Carolina Panthers have 21 turnovers in six games.

3) Miami’s 34 points were the most by a losing team in over a year (35 by the Cardinals losing in week 4 last season to the Jets).

4) Despite having only three penalties for 22 yards against Carolina Sunday, the Bills are still the most penalized team in the league averaging 71.57 penalty yards per game. #2? The Saints at 71.1.

5) The Arizona Cardinals have the league’s #1 run defense, allowing 3 yards/carry and 67.5 yards/game.

6) Redskins QB Jason Campbell has 10 fumbles already this season.

7) New Orleans has scored 45 points or more in four of their six games this season.

8) The Atlanta Falcons have never won a game under Mike Smith when trailing at halftime.

9) Derek Anderson’s first quarter against the Packers – 5/6 for 69 yards. His line for the day – 12/29 for 99 and an INT.

10) Road favorites were 7-1 this weekend. The one loser was Chicago (-1) at Cincy.

Week 8 Early Leans

I went 0-2-1 last week thanks to Shaun Hill and the Saints miracle cover. I sincerely hope no one is following my picks at this point. These are leans which may or may not be worse than what I end up going with on Friday/Saturday.

Houston @ Buffalo +3.5
Minnesota @ Green Bay -3

Tennis Gambling

Story about how a surge of gambling went on during a WTA event when microphones picked up a father telling his 6th ranked daughter to retire due to injury.  There was commotion as gamblers used the info to bet live and heavily on the other girl, with many calling this unethical.  Random commenter on and possible future blogger on summed things up nicely

“I don’t want to live in a world where I can’t place bets online for overseas women’s tennis.”

Truer words rarely spoken.  The girl retired when leading 7-5, 5-0, miracle cover, with the aid of technology.

Troy – Florida International (FIU) Miracle Cover

Apologies for missing this earlier in the week. From last Saturday and Troy was anywhere from an 8 to 9.5 point favorite:

FIU had just attempted a 4th and goal and didn’t score, that’s where we pick up the action with Troy in the lead 42-27……

Troy ball at 1:37 left in 4th quarter

1st and 10 at TROY 6: TROY penalty 3 yard Delay of Game on Team accepted.
1st and 13 at TROY 3: Levi Brown rush for 2 yards to the Troy 5.
2nd and 11 at TROY 5: Timeout FLORIDA INTL, clock 1:32.
2nd and 11 at TROY 5: Levi Brown rush for no gain, fumbled, forced by FIU, recovered by Troy Levi Brown at the Troy 5.
3rd and 11 at TROY 5: Team rush for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 4.
4th and 12 at TROY 4: Team rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 2.

DRIVE TOTALS: TROY drive: 4 plays -4 yards, 01:33 TROY DOWNS

FIU ball at 0:04

1st and Goal at TROY 2: Paul McCall pass complete to Jason Frierson for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.

Score: 42-33

End of 4th Quarter

You’d think they could waste two extra seconds in there somehow. Troy’s QB must not be on good terms with his defense.

Thursday Links

Why the Twins lost:

It comes down to this: As a franchise, what do you aspire to be? If “world champion” is your answer, you cannot tolerate or coddle role players who botch bunts, run the bases poorly and miss signs or cutoff men — brainless mistakes that cost you runs, and games, especially against the monsters of the American League East.

Really cool old story on/by Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Grown ups screwing things up.

Fantastic breakdown
of Ed Reed’s interception of Carson Palmer last week.

Antonio Pierce on playing the Raiders:

There was no vibe of trying or effort from the Raiders at all from a defensive standpoint against their offense. We’re getting three-and-outs. You don’t hear nobody [saying], ‘Hey, let’s go!’ trying to pick the guys up, rallying them, getting guys fired up. There was nothing. It was quiet. A guy gets sacked or somebody gets beat, they just get up. It’s not like there’s yelling or no kind of [emotion] about the way they were playing.

It was shocking to be out there in that game and get that kind of feeling.

Oakland is only getting two touchdowns at home to Philly on Sunday. There’s an argument that the bottom teams this year aren’t that bad. Try explaining that to this guy.

How smart bettors are identified. “It’s not the amount that usually moves a line, but rather the ‘face’ behind the action.”

Spanish soccer, fun for everyone:

This week, UEFA are reported to be investigating [Rayo Vallecano], along with Las Palmas, as their Round 41 league tie from the previous season is on the governing body’s 40 game, match-fixing dodgy list.

UEFA are basing their suspicions on these ties on irregular betting patterns….

The match itself came at the tail end of the Spanish season and gave the Canary Islanders the point needed to survive in the Segunda A division and the Rayo goalkeeper the top stopper award.

Wednesday’s edition of Mundo Deportivo explains exactly what happened by reporting that “the game ended 0-0 with barely two shots on target and shouts of “friends forever” from the Las Palmas stands.”

If the investigation shows that match-fixing was involved in the affair then the punishment could be severe – in the “both squads spending the weekend with the Dallas Cowboys cheerleading team” sense of the word.

Mundo Deportivo reports that any guilty party would receive no more than a three point deduction as a slap on the wrists.

And this is because sporting fraud isn’t a actually a crime in Spain.

Also fun is qualifying for the World Cup. The US scored with only 10-men in stoppage time to tie Costa Rica 2-2 last night and sent Honduras through in the process. The video has Honduran fans celebrating the miracle cover. Johnathan Bornstein – Honduran Hero.

Most entertaining coach ever

But certain people who have not supported me, and you know who you are, can keep sucking.

IGN is counting down the top 100 Nintendo games of all time.

Perhaps the most interesting tidbit of all about Duck Hunt, however, was the stand-alone product’s incredibly small size. The entire game fit on an infinitesimally small cartridge sized at 192 kilobits.

That’s smaller than the average excel files I deal with at work. You can play what’s sure to be ranked #1 (and the best video game ever) here.

Lastly, always remember that Chris Bosh is better at the internet than you.