Category: Miracle Cover
The quest to go undefeated against the spread during the playoffs has begun! I’ve only known one person who went 9-0-2 (in 2010), and I have never known anyone who went 11-0 against the spread during a playoff season. Always a fun quest, and great for degeneracy bragging rights!
Oakland +4 (-110)
I love that the 4:30pm Saturday NFL Playoff game has become the annual, “AFC South Winner vs Shitty Wild Card Team That You Can Skip On a Saturday Afternoon Bowl”. Have a family? Need to do some errands? Wanna find some time to get a run in? Welp, the NFL just has the time slot for you! Of course, I don’t have a life, or a family, and will probably watch this game alone rooting for a QB making his first NFL start vs another QB who lost his job mid-season to a guy who was one hit away from a nursing home last year in Denver. I think someone wins this game by 3, hence if Houston were to fall to -3 or lower, I might of taken them. But gimme the points here *and* I also like the Over 37 at -105. In the last 30 years, any playoff total of 40, the over has hit 60% of the time, and 38 or lower, the total has hit 65% of the time. I expect fail to equal points here, so I also advise taking a look at the “Defensive TD” and “Special Teams TD” props if you can get them for this game. It should be a blooper reel of bad football fun!
Miami +10 (-110)
Just way too many points. Matt Moore has been good this year, and historically (with the Panthers), ATS all his career. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the only game they haven’t covered this month was vs New England. Pittsburgh is talented but a bit top heavy; they lack in major depth in most areas and they are just one knock on Old Big Ben’s knee away from the “Not Jarvis” Landry Jones experience. Pittsburgh keeps teams in games unnecessarily because as skilled of a play caller PIT OC Tood Haley is, sometimes he does get too cute and throws the ball too much. The Pittsburgh Front 7 isn’t what it used to be in prior years, and looked awful vs these Dolphins earlier in the year when Lawrence Timmons was puking (vodka from South Beach the night before) onto the field and the MIA RB Jay Ajayi era was born. This line should be from +7.5 to +8.5. We’ll take the points here.
Giants +4.5 (-110)
This started at 7 for the NYG. The Giants have the best playing secondary going into the tournament, and Green Bay is playing at home in cold weather, which actually favors the Giants as it will help them like it did in 2011 vs Rodgers and company. Eli’s arm isn’t the best, but I expect him to keep it close enough to where we see a 3 point game in the final 2 minutes and he has the ball and either throws a TD or throws it to the other team. This, IMO, is the most unbettable game of the week….even more so than the crap fest in Houston. A true toss up and should be a fun contest.
Lions +8 (-110)
Lou has me scared shitless because as he knows from past experience, he knows Matt Stafford is always throwing one TAINT away from a miracle cover scooping up one’s bankroll as a Josh Wilson Pick-6 did so in 2009. That being said, Seattle limps into the playoff only covering one single line the final month of the year (vs LA…not saying much) and is really missing all world safety Earl Thomas both emotionally and physically. I have confidence that Lions OC (and best name ever) Jim Bob Cooter will call the game he’s called all year for Stafford: to keep the game close, throw the ball sideways (which actually is how you beat Cover 3 that Seattle runs), and keep the clock running. Lou likes the under at 43 (and so do I), which is another reason why I like the 8. Seattle offense has been wretched the last few weeks, mostly because they may have the worst OL going into these playoffs. And also, Matt Stafford might know a thing or two about helping one achieve a miracle cover as well:
I am also taking all dogs this weekend. I dunno if its the smartest thing I’ve ever done, or the stupidest. But this has been a wacky year for NFL betting, so it sounds about right.
BTW, Podcast #4 is up, with our leans for the NFL Playoffs Prop Odds and WNBA, and NCAA CFB Final:
Podcast #4 is up in time for the NFL Playoffs! Lou and I talk the NFL Conference Props, the Wild Card lines for the weekend, and some thoughts on WNBA and NCAA COllege Football Bowl betting (for those of you who care: AND YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE).
Lou and I are back with another podcast! We discuss the MLB Playoffs, some NFL Season props like Division/Conference winners and the MVP race, and we talk about who we like in next weeks’ games.
Two last-second interceptions returned for touchdowns by the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals delivered million-dollar blows to Las Vegas sports books, including a $600,000 hit from boxing champ Floyd Mayweather Jr.
I was lamenting ending up with a poor line for both the Jets and Washington, but it didn’t make a difference in the end. I shrugged my shoulders at the Geno Smith INT in the early games, but was a bit flustered after INT #2 in the afternoon, especially as I thought Arizona had run out the clock. I also think I saw a 23-20 final posted at some point. I’m reminded of the day 4-5 years ago when I refused to let Sean & Pat leave the bar with the Lions down 10 (but covering) in Seattle with under a minute to play and no other games to be found because “I was sweating a Matt Stafford Pick-Six.” He promptly threw said interception two plays later and I went home winless that day too.
And it was a miracle cover.
Four games in hockey including Avs-Bruins which has already started. No plays out of the bunch. Kansas City might be playable in baseball but it’s far too early to tell and will be close if it turns out to be good. Rams are the side to be on tonight at home to San Francisco and I’ll update if I end up taking them.
UPDATE: 49ers @ Rams +4 -115 Good price and a good line, we’ll see if the result works out.
With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!
Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:
Expect more goals in the NHL this year since the rule change to goalie pad sizes. All the games last night went OVER. #goodforthegame
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) October 2, 2013
That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey. Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.
In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS. A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.
Miami -3 (+105) v BAL
Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road. Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds. And we’re gambling….
Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET
Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic). Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.
PHI v NY Giants Over 53
These defenses stink
San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK
Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling! Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.
JAX at St Louis (tie)
I wish I could bet this as a tie. No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.
Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:
Merry Christmas everybody! Been away for a while as I had some login issues, traveled to Vegas, and was crowned a drinking champion along with Jaguars LB Eric Alexander. I’ve also been logging my bets on:
Follow me there for daily bets, quips, and intelligent thoughts that are 160 characters or less.
I’ve been doing well this year, batting .695 for the year. I was at .775, but I’ve been miracle covered the last few weeks (including The Debacle on a Thursday Night in Tennessee when the Titans scored a TD with NO time left to lose 30-28…….the last drive of that game deserves a column on its own).
Today’s tease: Miami Heat +7 and the Over for the Dallas/Cardinals game 39. I finally have a reason to root for The Douche 3, as nothing trumps my disdain more for Lebron, than the Lakers.
I also took the Ravens @ -3.5 on Monday; I just don’t see them losing this game with so much on the line. I’ll have more thoughts going into this Sunday about the Packers, and the Jets, who considering how there season has gone along with the foot-fetish news with Rex Ryan, are fans of the agony of victory, and the THRILL of defeat.
On a final note, I got some new games for the XBOX 360 today. Just played some capture the flag with Chad Ochocinco on Call of Duty: Black Ops.
And as you all know, I have a great love for sports games, so I am really excited to start a season in this title below later:
First off, I’d like to show some love for Matt Stafford’s Miracle Cover. We might need to add this one to the definitions & examples page as Stafford’s first four picks just weren’t good enough for Seattle to cover. It took a 5th INT returned for a score with under 30 seconds remaining. Ignore the final score for future gambling; Detroit should have won this game handily and it took a Jamarcian performance to give Seattle the win.
The 49ers need to go with a platoon at QB. The Alex Smith we all came to know and love was back on Sunday with three interceptions and a fumble. Shaun Hill needs to start and be pulled whenever SF trails by more than seven points early and/or they need a score in the 4th quarter. Teams do this all the time with running backs and linebackers, swapping out players based on the game situation. Why not at quarterback too? San Francisco is in a perfect position to try this. They’re 3-5 with eight winnable games left on their schedule (CHI, @GB, JAX, @SEA, ARI, @PHI, DET, @STL).
Very, very impressive performance by the
Bungles Bengals at home to Baltimore. Their defense is excellent and held the Ravens to 210 yards offense for the day. Joe Flacco was under pressure all day, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall were excellent, and Baltimore couldn’t run effectively enough to respond. Baltimore has serious issues on defense and look a lot like the Falcons. They will go as far as their quarterback and defensive scheme can take them.
Lastly, I’d like to propose that DeAngelo Hall be allowed to face the Falcons every season. Not only is he kind enough to play 10-12 yards off the line on nearly every play, he also managed to get in a fight with his old team again AND attempt a tackle as pathetic as Jeff Reed’s on Percy Harvin a few weeks back. Yet another reason to love Falcons coach Mike Smith as tight end Justin Peele has to pull his coach out of the scrum on the Atlanta sideline. Watch the video here.
Stats of the Week
1) Sunday’s loss to the Falcons was the first time the Redskins have allowed over 30 points in a game since their January 2008 playoff loss against Seattle (23 games). The Redskins have yet to score more than 17 points in any game this season.
2) Sack Watch: Aaron Rodgers was sacked six times in Green Bay’s loss to Tampa Sunday, putting him at 37 through 8 games. David Carr has the NFL record of 76.
3) Tennessee is 9-2 all-time when Chris Johnson scores a touchdown. He easily leads the NFL in rushing yards (959) and yards/attempt (6.7).
4) The Titans have zero turnovers in the two games Vince Young has started at QB.
5) Kansas City and Miami both lost Sunday despite having zero turnovers. NFL teams are collectively 40-10 this season when not turning the ball over (3 games have seen no turnovers by either team).
6) Dallas Clark’s 14 receptions on Sunday tied a Colts record set twice by Marvin Harrison in 1999 and 2002.
6b) Peyton Manning was 19-25 passing…in the first quarter. He ended the first half with 40 pass attempts.
7) Randy Moss has 8 touchdowns in 5 games against the Dolphins as a member of the Patriots. Touchdown #8 game on this play.
8) The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-4.
9) Tampa’s win over Green Bay was their first in 12, dating back to November 30th, 2008 over New Orleans. On that date, their record was 9-3.
9b) Tampa’s kickers are a combined 3 for 9 on field goals this season.
10) Minnesota is currently a 17 point favorite at home to the Lions this week. Assuming it holds, it will be the largest spread of the season.
Not a lot out there early. Maybe this will be my bye week so I can’t set any more money on fire.
New England +3 @ Indianapolis
This will likely be a big public play as Indy looked bad in their win over Houston. That doesn’t change the fact that they have problems with good teams that are bigger than them and can rush the passer (Tony Ugoh had help all day at left tackle).
New Orleans @ St. Louis +14
I don’t want to bet this, but probably will anyway.
Teaser Miami -2.5 v Tampa & Arizona -2 v Seattle
Lots of money coming in on Miami so this line will probably move to 9.5 or 10 making this teaser useless.
Fun times on Sunday in two of the few competitive games of the day. Both New Orleans and Pittsburgh clinched miracle covers in the final two minutes of their games by returning an interception for a score. Pittsburgh’s cover was thanks to Minnesota’s Chester Taylor and Brett Favre.
Favre didn’t look like he was having much fun out there when he slid at Keyaron Fox’s feet on the return without actually making contact with him. Admittedly, it was only the second worst “tackle” of the game.
Miami’s failing was even more special. Not only were the Fins (+7) winning by 10 real points to start the 4th quarter, New Orleans was kind enough to miss an extra point on their go-ahead touchdown AND kick a field goal from Miami’s 3 on their next drive to make the score 40-34 with 3:20 to play. Then Chad Henne stepped in (skip to 5:00 minute mark).
Stats of the Week
1) Sunday was only the second time in Alex Smith‘s career he has thrown 3 touchdown passes in a game, the other in 2006 versus Oakland. He replaced Shaun Hill at halftime for the 49ers and has been named the starter for next week’s game at Indy.
2) The Carolina Panthers have 21 turnovers in six games.
3) Miami’s 34 points were the most by a losing team in over a year (35 by the Cardinals losing in week 4 last season to the Jets).
4) Despite having only three penalties for 22 yards against Carolina Sunday, the Bills are still the most penalized team in the league averaging 71.57 penalty yards per game. #2? The Saints at 71.1.
5) The Arizona Cardinals have the league’s #1 run defense, allowing 3 yards/carry and 67.5 yards/game.
6) Redskins QB Jason Campbell has 10 fumbles already this season.
7) New Orleans has scored 45 points or more in four of their six games this season.
8) The Atlanta Falcons have never won a game under Mike Smith when trailing at halftime.
9) Derek Anderson’s first quarter against the Packers – 5/6 for 69 yards. His line for the day – 12/29 for 99 and an INT.
10) Road favorites were 7-1 this weekend. The one loser was Chicago (-1) at Cincy.
Week 8 Early Leans
I went 0-2-1 last week thanks to Shaun Hill and the Saints miracle cover. I sincerely hope no one is following my picks at this point. These are leans which may or may not be worse than what I end up going with on Friday/Saturday.
Houston @ Buffalo +3.5
Minnesota @ Green Bay -3
Story about how a surge of gambling went on during a WTA event when microphones picked up a father telling his 6th ranked daughter to retire due to injury. There was commotion as gamblers used the info to bet live and heavily on the other girl, with many calling this unethical. Random commenter on espn.com and possible future blogger on miraclecovers.com summed things up nicely
“I don’t want to live in a world where I can’t place bets online for overseas women’s tennis.”
Truer words rarely spoken. The girl retired when leading 7-5, 5-0, miracle cover, with the aid of technology.