Derek Brunson vs Daniel Kelly Will the fight go the distance? – YES @ +115
Mark Hunt wins by KO, TKO, DQ +140
The Belmont Stakes:
PIT +120 (hedge as a part of my NSH +145 series bet)
This started at +135 and now has gone to +145. I decided to jump in on this, as I am still kicking myself to not pick Nashville +1200 before the playoff to win (I did take them in the first round vs Chicago, +145). A few reasons why I like this play is that I feel, we are getting odds on what I think is a coinflip. While Pittsburgh may have more talent, and home ice (which isn’t as big as people think; ask any Bruins fan), Nashville comes in with the hotter goalie (Renne has actually had the 13th best run of any goaltender up to this point in the playoff modern era) and more rest, as Pittsburgh had to play 2 grueling 7 game series (while flopping goalies due to inconsistency) back to back while Nashville took care of business early and got rest. Defenseman P.K. Subban has really helped their powerplay, and I think that will give them another edge in this series.
Take Nashville, who somehow has an NHL team that is really good.
One more thought: these games tend to go under, and most of the time you’ll get a 5.5 O/U line with the average totals scored per game over the history of the Stanley Cup Final coming in at around 4.91 goals per game. The O/U is 21-39-7 since 2006. That being said, I’m taking the over 5.5 (+125) in Game 1 as I think guys will be nervous which means bouncing pucks and plenty of penalties and power plays. Then, as the series progresses, things will start to get tighter (and under).
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) May 27, 2017
Pens v Senators Under 5 (EVEN)
Since 2010, the UNDER in Game 7s is 21-9 (70%)
I expect Sens coach Guy Boucher to “pack it in” with the neutral zone trap, as he did as Tampa coach during one of the greatest hockey games I’ve ever watched, a 1-0 loss to the Boston Bruins in 2011’s ECF Game & (Bruins’ Nathan Horton scored a goal in the 3rd). Also, goalies Craig Anderson and Marc Andre-Fleury are streaky but have the ability to have a great game at any moment. Game 7’s tend to be tight and I’ll stick to that trend tonight.
It’s a big day and a big weekend for sports gambling! Today is the Kentucky Derby, followed by a Cinco de Mayo showdown between two of the greater Mexican boxers in the sports, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs Julio Caesar Chavez Jr.
Julio Caesar Chavez Jr, known to miss weight, came in exactly at 164 lbs and while he looked pretty gaunt, it wasn’t the worst weight cut in the world for him as his big problem isn’t so much eating as it is much weed (it doesn’t make him a bad guy!). Alvarez is on a tear and is coming down in weight to take on his Mexican rival, which should take away some of his punching power as he usually has waned in both power and output when he’s fought at these lower weights. Chavez Jr is very much a defensive boxer like his dad, although he doesn’t have the ability to be a savage like his father did despite, IMO, having slightly better athletic attributes. I see this one going the distance, so I am taking “Fight Goes the Distance – YES” at -120, and a play on Alvarez by points +125, as Alvarez’s modus operandi is to put on a good fight for the fans in this non-title showdown and get that “W” to build up momentum for his eventual super fight with GGG in 2018.
Classic Empire 4-1
J.Boys Echo 28-1
PIT v WSH Under 5 (+120)
Joshua vs Klitschko
Over Rounds 8.5 -115
In what is the most anticipated heavyweight bout in quite some time, the UK’s Anthony Joshua (-250) has a chance to go from wonder prospect to the baddest man on the planet vs veteran Wladimir Klitschko (+200) today at Wembley Stadium. Klitschko, coming off a decision loss to Tyson “I love cocaine” Fury, has always been known to be a prudent fighter. Joshua is a KO artist, but he’s never faced anyone with the defensive boxing of Klitschko. Klitschko often has a stigma of putting on bad fights because of his methodical approach, and his ability to hold guys and not allow them to find their jabbing range. I foresee this one going past 9 rounds, and maybe even the distance, as Joshua has yet to fight a boxer of Klitschko’s chin and pedigree. I fancy Joshua however in a decision (+500), as Klitschko is literally on the Back 9 at 17 and is on his way out…..but his iron chin and guile should see him through to the judge’s scorecards.
Senators vs Rangers Over 5 (+105)
Nashville vs St Louis Under 5 (-110)
OTT at BOS Over 5 (EVEN)
Celtics -2 (-115)
Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105)
PARLAY: Nashville vs Chicago Under 5 (+105) and BOS v OTT Under 5 (-125) at +200
Bruins at Ottawa Over 5 +120
First off, NHL playoff unders are so far 1-9-2 O/U….and I think that will be the play for most of this series. But, considering the dynamic of Ottawa needing a win and the Bruins having injuries in the defense pairings, this should be a more open game today as Ottawa will be desperate to score goals even in Guy Boucher’s nitty neutral zone system.
UFC on FOX Kansas City:
Parlay @ +298: Souza -240, Johnson -699, Collier +120
Roy Nelson +125
Also, as a side note: if you do take the longshot Reis tonight in the title match, make sure to bet the “win by submission” prop. He is a jiu-jitsu maven and no one in the world is going to beat Mighty Mouse Johnson in a decision since he is the fastest fighters in the UFC. A shock win here will come via sub for Reis, and you’ll get more odds on that as supposed to the straight up +450.
Stoke v Hull Over 2.5 +110