Nashville vs St Louis Under 5 (-110)
OTT at BOS Over 5 (EVEN)
Celtics -2 (-115)
Gennady Golovkin -699
Gary O’Sullivan -3448
South Carolina -1 -115
Coach Frank Martin is 4-0 ATS in the first round, and only 27% of the money is on the Gamecocks.
VA Tech/Wisconsin Under 138 (-105)
Wisconsin is famous for keeping games in the 60s.
Vermont +9 -105
Vermont was undefeated in conference play, and Purdue is coming off a loss to lowly Nebraska in the Big Ten tourny. I think this will be closer than people think.
Wichita State -6 (-105)
Their seed (10) is lower than their KENPOM rating (8). One could argue this line should be higher.
Notre Dame -6 and Over 135, Michigan St +2, Wichita State -6, VA Tech +5.5,
Keep an eye out on my twitter feed as I will be adding more degeneracy throughout the day.
NC Central -3.5 (-105)
USC/Providence Over 142 (-105)
And both of these in a 4 point teaser (EVEN)
One of my favorite days to gamble: I have no idea about these teams yet I am batting something like .750 betting on these coinflip playin games that happen on opening Tuesday.
Here’s what I like:
Mount St. Mary’s ML +105
PARLAY @ +375: Mount St. Mary’s ML +105 and Under in Wake Forest/Kansas St 148
UFC Fight Night Brazil:
“Will There Be a Draw on the Card? – Yes” @ +1000
Over Total KO/TKO’s on Card 4.5 @ -120
Joe Soto +160
PARLAY @ +378: Sergio Moraes -230, Trinaldo +150, Paulo Henrique Costa -300
UPenn +7.5 and in TEASER with Under 128 (vs Princeton)
Podcast #4 is up in time for the NFL Playoffs! Lou and I talk the NFL Conference Props, the Wild Card lines for the weekend, and some thoughts on WNBA and NCAA COllege Football Bowl betting (for those of you who care: AND YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE).
Apparently, the Warriors’ Steph Curry’s wife, Ayesha Curry, also agreed with my reasoning on why I took the Cavs in Game 6: the NBA is Riggtastic!
Although, I do see Game 7 being on the “up and up” tonight….and if anything, the Warriors will be the ones getting the calls and home cooking, especially thanks to Steve Kerr pulling a Phil Jackson, “Here’s this blank check, I am going to criticize the officials in the post game presser” move to sway them. A few other reasons I like the Warriors: granted they have had some injury issues, but they have been the best and most consistent team all year and need to win tonight to place themselves in NBA history as one of the greatest all time teams. There is pressure on them, but also Cleveland, since that town hasn’t had a sports team win a title since World War II. I expect Curry and Thompson to play balls out tonight, and the Cavs to not shoot as well as they have the last two games over expectation, especially due to the one week turnaround of flying back and forth to Oakland. That can take a lot from a road team. I think LeBron will have to score 40+ for the Cavs to have a shot tonight; he’s been excellent these last two games but at some point the rubber you’d think hits the road. The Bogut injury for the Warriors is the one “bear” case I have against them (you want big men in the middle of the paint to clog LeBron’s heavy drives; Kendrick Perkins was so key to this when he was with the Celtics vs LeBron’s Cavs from 2008-2011). Andre Iguodala is their best defender for LeBron and is banged up, but is expected to play tonight.
The Warriors are at home and home teams are 15-3 in NBA Finals’ Game 7s. So we got that in our favor as well. Well that, and Cleveland choking in a big spot, because that is what LeBron does and that is what that city does (minus UFC Heavywieght Champ Stipe Miocic).
Swiss vs France Under 2
The Swiss just need a result today to get in. I expect France to play their bench and this to be a milquetoast game, probably ending 1-0.
I think the Cavs pull it out at home tonight and force a Game 7 (which I also think they lose). First, I always like taking Game 6 teams when they are at home and down 3-2 and need a win to force a Game 7 (hockey is the exception; that sports is just different). Although it would be classic Cleveland to lose a title on their home floor, you know the NBA is going to pull out all of the stops, referee wise, to try and make a Game 7 possible. Also, I can see Irving/LeBron hitting 21 on the blackjack table again and shooting the ball well one more time before variance, and the back-and-forth road trip from Cleveland to Oakland, catches up to them.
WALES ML +550 and DRAW v ENG +285
These are both hedges as I have England, Wales as the group order. If Wales get a result today that probably gets flipped so we can take the middle.
Northern Ireland/Ukraine Under 2.5 (-110)