OK, onto trying to predict and profit off of some more shitty NFL football this weekend:
Minnesota -7 (+105)
This has now moved to -110. Texans go into Minnesota reeling on defense after losing JJ Watt for the year, and their offense has been inconsistent at best, especially on the road. While Minnesota doesn’t have the best *talent* on defense, it’s still pretty damn good, and they have the best coach “in form” in Mike Zimmer, while being are relatively healthy. I’d rather have 11 good players, in form and healthy, as supposed to 11 Hall of Famers who are banged up…when it comes to a defensive unit. Also, Sam Bradford has played damn good football since getting traded (for what I still think is too many draft picks) to the Vikings, and at +1600 at MVP, it’s actually not a bad play. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence, but it’s definitely in play because the Vikings are probably the #1 seed in the NFC, if we project it out from today. It’s like the Vikings, who lost all pro players at numerous positions, are like the ultimate “Ewing Theory” team. Their only real weakness is the kicker. I should of taken them 10-to-1 to win the NFL when I had the chance in the preseason.
As a last side note: Mike Zimmer vs the spread in the last two years: 28-5. And the Vikings, and their games, are one of the lowest volume bets in all of football.
Buffalo at LA Rams Under 40 (-105)
This projects to be a rock fight. The LA Rams last home game ended 9-6. They have a top 3 defense, and the Bills (coming off a shutout of the Brady-less Pats, 16-0) have a top 10 defense. Both offenses can run the ball, but have a hard time throwing it because, well, it’s the fucking Bills and the fucking Rams. Neither of these teams haven’t thrown the ball since Jim Kelly and Kurt Warner left their respective teams. Additionally, in the Rams’ new stadium at the “old as balls” LA Coliseum, is shaped like a bowl instead of a cascade. This is significant because when it’s hot in LA (who has had a hotter than usual summer and fall), there’s no shade for fans (sounds like a great time!) or players alike. 88 degree weather on 1pm on Sunday will create fatigue, which creates fail. Hopefully it also doesn’t result in defensive and special teams fail touchdowns.
Washington +4 (-115)
The Washington football team goes into Baltimore this week for a darby. Someone wins this game by a field goal. I don’t know who, and I don’t care, because I will probably watch less than 5 minutes of these shitty, flawed teams playing. I’m making bets out of spite; that’s how disgruntled I am with the NFL this year.
Red Sox @ Cleveland Over 7 (-120)
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
Now that the Wild Card is passed us, here are some of my preliminary thoughts for MLB Series prices and a lean for tomorrow.
Divisional Series prices @LVSuperBook
Red Sox -150
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 6, 2016
Toronto vs Texas Goes to 5 Games +130
This is going to be a really fun series. During last year’s epic ALDS tilt: Toronto fans threw beer at a baby, Jose Batista had the best bat flip after a HR in history, and there were a number of bench clearing moments during in what I think is the best Bottom of the 7th in the history of baseball. This year had the sports fight of the year between Jose Batista and Rougned Odor. This thing has to go 5; the baseball gods dictate it.
Chicago Cubs -260
Thanks to SF winning the NL WIld Card play-in last night, we now start hedging our SF Giants to win the NL at +650 (now at +300). The Giants have slightly better pitching than the Cubs, the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing (+240; +115 to win the NL). I think the Cubs take this in 4 because Bumgarner, the best pitcher in the series, is slated to pitch only one game (unless it goes 5) and the Giants lineup stinks. This price settles in around -260 online, while -280 live as the Cub money pours in from Chicago fans who love to chase history while making a profit. Home field, a decent bullpen/manager, and a great lineup should see the Cubs through to the NLCS #reversejinx
And a lean for tomorrow:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
It’s Scherzer vs Kershaw, but both lineups are pretty good, the bullpens pretty “meh”, and I am more betting that Clayton Kershaw pukes all over himself in a playoff game again.
Tor vs BAL Under 8.5 (-115)
NYM vs SF Under 6 (-115)
SF Giants to win NL +650
And for those of you curious (and you know who you are), a Red Sox vs Cubs WOrld Series parlay is +600. I put a fiver down for shits and giggles, but the only reason I didn’t seriously take it is because one team has a shoddy closer and the other has a shoddy history.
I am not touching the game, but an interesting line tonight from baseball.
Texas Rangers (+177) vs NYY (-193)
I understand Tanaka is a better pitcher than Nick Martinez. I understand the Yankees are playing at home. What I do NOT understand is how this line is so high. America doesn’t understand either…
|06/29/16||Make Pick||963||Texas||8½o-115||1.5(-120)||170||o 9.0 (-120)||3256||49%||63%||41%|
|7:05PM||964||New York Yankees||-200/+170||-1.5(100)||-195||u 9.0 (100)||51%||37%||59%|
The 63% refers to people betting the Rangers ML. And I dont want to hear, “people are betting value.” Garbage, people are not bright. A line of interest indeed.
Now THAT is a bad beat for America. Vegas knows! The fix is in!
We are on a run. Let’s keep it going…
KC/NYY UNDER 8 -114
Scooped yesterday. I will figure out my bank at some point.
PIRATES -135 @ 16
Yada, yada, ball of suck…
ALL @ 16
People need to start paying attention to my baseball plays. Fading my action so far has been the best quick rich scheme to not involve a Wilpon in ages. Let’s start winning some.
All @ 16
Riding the anti-Oriole Express tonight. Have Jesse Hahn @ +112 @ 15. I’ll update my pathetic bank at some point. Have 3 bucks on Lani for Kentucky…
Broke even last night, neither Rays or O’s hit for shit for Baltimore got the big bop.
My boy Bassitt, see what he can do.
Oakland +121 @ 12
Bank : -55.52