This is a category that has always interested me. Today’s entry…
Yankees vs Royals Under 9 (-118)
Pineda vs Vargas
To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms. Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com). Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected. 1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).
18 Total Runs. Over hit before game’s halfway point. Hmm indeed.
My results on these have declined over the past few years. Who knew that spending markedly less time on something could result in inferior results?
10 Braves Over 74.5
9 Cubs under 96.5
8 Rangers Over 85.5
7 Yankees Under 82.5
6 Tigers Under 82.5
5 Mariners Under 85.5
4 Rockies Under 80.5
3 Reds Under 69.5
2 Nationals Over 90.5
1 Phillies Under 72.5
Homer pick to start but a lot of Unders this year. NL is woefully unbalanced so it’s hard to identify a pure .500 team. If there’s true separation by June, we could really see things diverge in the 2nd half of the season. Reds and Phillies should be the two worst teams along with San Diego and I have no idea how the Rockies total is at 80.5. In the AL, the Yankees need several things to go right to hit their over. I think the Tigers and Mariners are sending out the two oldest lineups in baseball without the rotation to really cover as backup.
Division Winner Guesses:
AL East – Boston
AL Central – Cleveland
AL West – Houston
NL East – Washington
NL Central – Chicago
NL West – San Francisco
Some thoughts looking at these numbers. I’ve noted before that seeing heavy juice on a line can affect your decision making. You try to come up with reasons on why to believe something. Case in point last year with the Orioles. Their line was somewhere between -170 and -180 on the under. They were a trendy pick to lose a bunch of games, but they played beyond expectations. Would I have felt so confident in them if they weren’t sitting at -173 or whatever on the under? I doubt it. Anyway let’s have a look.
Padres Under 66.5 – Not breaking new ground here. Several have noted that, on paper, they have the worst rotation in baseball. I am a fan of both Austin Hedges and Will Myers, but this lineup will consistently be littered with mediocrity. And if the lineup is bad the rotation is horrific. No starter is projected to have a sub 4.00 era in the pitchiest of pitcher’s parks. Jered Weavers fastball was so slow the other day MLB pitch tracker listed it as a changeup. (True)
Tigers Under 82.5 – Some of the Detroit blurbs are either hilarious or massively depressing according to viewpoint. “None of their options are attractive,” “got roughed up again,” “need to turn it around.” Reports note that in regards to position battles, one player fails while his teammate competitor “hasn’t exactly been great himself.” Anibal Sanchez has apparently worked on his mechanics and is looking like he may rebound which is a point against us.
Phillies Over 72.5 – Lot of young talent on Philadelphia. Plus you know you are generally not backing the trendy money when you are gambling on Philadelphia succeeding in anything.
Indians Over 93.5 – Well we have already gambled on Philadelphia doing well, let’s toss Cleveland in. Last year as I routinely kicked myself for taking that damn Baltimore Under the theme that kept coming back for me was how good their bullpen was. I am slightly nervous that Andrew Miller may be wearing down a bit. Even if that is the case this unit should be strong enough to carry this team. Hopefully a fully healthy year for Brantley.
Brewers Over 68.5 – The lineup by itself is certainly legitimate enough to clear this number. The issue will be how many games the pitching gives back. Craig Counsell seems like he’s due for some success.
Cubs Under 96.5 – To win this many games there has to be a minimum number of question marks. You could make the argument that the entire OF is one giant one. Jason Heyward is an enigma, Jon Jay is a far cry from Dexter Fowler, and when he isnt tearing ligaments Kyle Schwarber has played all of 40 games in LF. Wade Davis may be fine but is coming off injury. Hammel gone, Lackey ancient. Too many questions for me.
Royals Under 75.5 – As has been reported on quite a bit, the Royals have quite a few key players heading to free agency next year. Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Escobar…this is betting on the Royals selling at the trade deadline even if they’re in a spot that isn’t horrible.
Mets Over 87.5 – No reasoning necessary.
Angels Under 79.5 – My only offseason note for the Angels was to observe they had signed Ryan LaMarre to a major league contract, specifically 50k over the minimum. That’s all I got.
Yankees Under 82.5 – Sure.
Actual numbers first. Lines with heavy juice noted.
Blue Jays 85.5
Braves 74.5 (over -156)
Brewers 68.5 (over -161)
Cardinals 83.5 (over -152)
Cubs 96.5 (under -133)
D’backs 77.5 (over -139)
Marlins 76.5 (under -126)
Mets 87.5 (over -130)
Nationals 90.5 (over -130)
Padres 66.5 (under -142)
Rangers 85.5 (under -125)
Red Sox 92.5 (under -140)
Royals 75.5 (over -148)
Tigers 82.5 (under -126)
White Sox 68.5 (over -140)
Chargers +3.5 (-115)
Good note here from oddssharks’ Jon Campbell:
If you picked all five Thursday Night games correctly this season, taking the underdogs straight up while laying the points with the faves, you’d be up $517.97 on $100 bets rather than $454.55 if you were to simply play the spread. It’s a significant difference.
The San Diego Chargers are 3-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. If you like the Chargers, the payout is +150 on the moneyline rather than the standard -110 if you take the field goal
Lou and I like the Chargers tonight as teams this year who are 2 point to 3.5 point underdogs have covered nearly 60% of the time this year.
I’ll have a look at the ML later and I might put that in a parlay with the Dodgers +140. Nationals’ Manager Dusty Baker has lost his last 9 postseason “must win” games.
Lou and I are back with another podcast! We discuss the MLB Playoffs, some NFL Season props like Division/Conference winners and the MVP race, and we talk about who we like in next weeks’ games.
Giants vs Cubs Under 6 (-110)
Montreal vs Saskatchewan Over 52 (-105)
Podcast #2 coming soon; check out this parlay!
Parlay of the Week: $95 12-Leg Parlay nets $284,905 pic.twitter.com/1gF7ve9BNM
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) October 10, 2016
LA Dodgers @ Washington Nationals Over 7.5 +105
3-1 so far this 2016 playoff.
Miss St v Auburn Under 54.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs NC State Under 56
Albert Tumenov (-240) and Michael Bisping (-250) at +101
OK, onto trying to predict and profit off of some more shitty NFL football this weekend:
Minnesota -7 (+105)
This has now moved to -110. Texans go into Minnesota reeling on defense after losing JJ Watt for the year, and their offense has been inconsistent at best, especially on the road. While Minnesota doesn’t have the best *talent* on defense, it’s still pretty damn good, and they have the best coach “in form” in Mike Zimmer, while being are relatively healthy. I’d rather have 11 good players, in form and healthy, as supposed to 11 Hall of Famers who are banged up…when it comes to a defensive unit. Also, Sam Bradford has played damn good football since getting traded (for what I still think is too many draft picks) to the Vikings, and at +1600 at MVP, it’s actually not a bad play. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence, but it’s definitely in play because the Vikings are probably the #1 seed in the NFC, if we project it out from today. It’s like the Vikings, who lost all pro players at numerous positions, are like the ultimate “Ewing Theory” team. Their only real weakness is the kicker. I should of taken them 10-to-1 to win the NFL when I had the chance in the preseason.
As a last side note: Mike Zimmer vs the spread in the last two years: 28-5. And the Vikings, and their games, are one of the lowest volume bets in all of football.
Buffalo at LA Rams Under 40 (-105)
This projects to be a rock fight. The LA Rams last home game ended 9-6. They have a top 3 defense, and the Bills (coming off a shutout of the Brady-less Pats, 16-0) have a top 10 defense. Both offenses can run the ball, but have a hard time throwing it because, well, it’s the fucking Bills and the fucking Rams. Neither of these teams haven’t thrown the ball since Jim Kelly and Kurt Warner left their respective teams. Additionally, in the Rams’ new stadium at the “old as balls” LA Coliseum, is shaped like a bowl instead of a cascade. This is significant because when it’s hot in LA (who has had a hotter than usual summer and fall), there’s no shade for fans (sounds like a great time!) or players alike. 88 degree weather on 1pm on Sunday will create fatigue, which creates fail. Hopefully it also doesn’t result in defensive and special teams fail touchdowns.
Washington +4 (-115)
The Washington football team goes into Baltimore this week for a darby. Someone wins this game by a field goal. I don’t know who, and I don’t care, because I will probably watch less than 5 minutes of these shitty, flawed teams playing. I’m making bets out of spite; that’s how disgruntled I am with the NFL this year.
Red Sox @ Cleveland Over 7 (-120)
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
Now that the Wild Card is passed us, here are some of my preliminary thoughts for MLB Series prices and a lean for tomorrow.
Divisional Series prices @LVSuperBook
Red Sox -150
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 6, 2016
Toronto vs Texas Goes to 5 Games +130
This is going to be a really fun series. During last year’s epic ALDS tilt: Toronto fans threw beer at a baby, Jose Batista had the best bat flip after a HR in history, and there were a number of bench clearing moments during in what I think is the best Bottom of the 7th in the history of baseball. This year had the sports fight of the year between Jose Batista and Rougned Odor. This thing has to go 5; the baseball gods dictate it.
Chicago Cubs -260
Thanks to SF winning the NL WIld Card play-in last night, we now start hedging our SF Giants to win the NL at +650 (now at +300). The Giants have slightly better pitching than the Cubs, the prohibitive favorite to win the whole thing (+240; +115 to win the NL). I think the Cubs take this in 4 because Bumgarner, the best pitcher in the series, is slated to pitch only one game (unless it goes 5) and the Giants lineup stinks. This price settles in around -260 online, while -280 live as the Cub money pours in from Chicago fans who love to chase history while making a profit. Home field, a decent bullpen/manager, and a great lineup should see the Cubs through to the NLCS #reversejinx
And a lean for tomorrow:
LA Dodgers @ Washington Over 6 (-105)
It’s Scherzer vs Kershaw, but both lineups are pretty good, the bullpens pretty “meh”, and I am more betting that Clayton Kershaw pukes all over himself in a playoff game again.