Miracle Covers » pat

BCS Championship

pat — Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:11:42 +0000

Alabama is a slight favorite against LSU in the Championship game. There is a chance that the computer simulations are picking ‘Bama. Pretty sure, though, this is as strong an indicator you can find as to how married Vegas often is to betting tendencies. (Always fun to write “married” and “Vegas” in the same sentence) I wrote about this a few years ago here. While absolutely either team is capable of winning, having Alabama the favorite is to me stunning.

Coach Call-Outs

pat — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 13:55:04 +0000

Refers to the Head Coach of a team reaming his players out publicly. Bill Self does this last night after Kansas struggles to beat Long Beach St by 8 at home. Self slams his team (primarily the guard play) for their inability to control the ball. How his college-aged players react to being blasted out in the open in their upcoming game against No. 2 Ohio State is of interest here.

“If we handle the ball like that, (Ohio State) can pick the score,” Self said. “Let’s just call it like it is. They will pick the score in our own building if we handle the ball like that…It will be a jailbreak if we turn the ball over against Ohio State. They won’t just be running out and scoring two points. They will be making plays that are ESPN top-10 plays.” Quote ESPN college basketball blog.

There is no line yet.

UPDATE

Line: Ohio St (-3) @ Kansas. I know nothing about college basketball at this moment in 2011, but I will be taking Ohio St here. Let’s see what happens.

This and Dap

pat — Sun, 13 Nov 2011 16:00:43 +0000

Want to throw some dap Louis’ way. Back about a month and a half ago Louis proclaimed “Stanford cannot tackle.” He went on to say he would take Oregon whenever the two played. His analysis was spot on. Stanford’s inability to tackle (and Andrew Luck being exposed) was probably the difference in last night’s game. The only reason Louis did not end up putting bills against the bills (duck humor) was because his gf Deepa is a Stanford alum. Great pick.

Follow up dap on that game. A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read. In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU. To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there. Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th. I quote…

“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.” Brilliant.

Boxing. I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite? So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog. Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by. This has to have gambling implications.

I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there. But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league. I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league. 3 picks a week. With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3. How ugly are those picks?

Two Touchy Home Faves Revisited

pat — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:36:14 +0000

Talked last week about the half dozen teams in college that were roughly 2 TD home faves, let’s check out how things went down.

Akron (1-7) 3 @ Miami OH (3-5) 35
Louisville (4-4) 38 @ West Virginia (6-2) 35
Duke (3-5) 14 @ Miami FL (4-4) 49
Vanderbilt (4-4) 21 @ Florida (4-4) 26
Texas Tech (5-3) 20 @ Texas (5-2) 52
Texas A&M (5-3) 25 @ Oklahoma (7-1) 41

We had created two groups. Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were teams with clearly better records than their opponent. The second group of teams had very similar records as their opponent, but were much more likely to generate action from the betting public, explaining their large number. Both groups went 2-1 ATS. Conclusion – Nothing to really report. Florida, following a season long pattern, seems particularly overrated. Side Note – Notre Dame didn’t cover as 2 TD road fave.

Two Touchy Home Favorites

pat — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 13:14:14 +0000

We are going to look at a very specific group here, games where the home team is essentially a 2 TD favorite. Everyone is playing opponents from their own conference.

Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)

Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents. Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations. Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public? If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved. As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things. I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.

Game of the Year

pat — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 12:12:11 +0000

The opening line on LSU/Alabama is ‘Bama -4.5. I made a somewhat vague promise to myself that if I was more than a point off in either direction on this line I would bet the game so it looks like I am taking LSU. Couple of boring points about the line…

It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
Vegas is not run by idiots. They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?” Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause

With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…

Pick : LSU +4.5

Gotta Win Game

pat — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 13:17:37 +0000

Sometimes you bet a team simply because they are in a game they essentially have to win or their season is in the crapper. Last week this could be seen in the NFL in the Eagles/Redskins game where if Philly loses they go to 1-5 and for all intents and purposes they are done.

This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game. Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat. If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced. If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one. So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.

Pick : Cal -3

Game of the Year

pat — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 12:14:25 +0000

Nothing has happened over the last couple weeks to make me want to move the line we originally set on LSU, ALabama. Anything can happen in the SEC in the month before this game, but at this point I still like where we are. If this game was today Vegas might lean towards -3 on this, if LSU struggles AT ALL from here in we will too.

Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

Pat’s MLB Over/Unders – A Recap

pat — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 13:58:03 +0000

Got absolutely hammered on this stuff. I just went to write Over/Unders in the Subject Header and I hit the shift button making it Over?Unders which pretty much sums up my year. Couple notes on my picks.

Would have hit Boston over easy if not for the beyond epic collapse in September. Obviously all the games count the same, but this is amazing.
In the NY Yankee pick I noted the Yanks now have “three hitters that scare you and a whole lot of OK after that.” Granderson was an OK guy. Wrong.
In my Houston over pick, more on that beauty in a moment, I noted “(the Astros’) rotation just isn’t the type that leads a team to 60 something wins.” Don’t mean to brag, but I was pretty spot on with that.

At the end of the day I am pretty sure I went 1-for-10, back to the drawing board for next year.

Kudos to Louis for once again owning me on a long-range future bet, this time with his Houston Astros proposition for worst-record. Actually enjoyed paying this bet out considering the degree of difficulty. I thought I was legit fleecing Louis at 3.5:1 on the Astros. Amazing stuff.

Game of the Year

pat — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 13:34:18 +0000

The annual college football apocalypse game this year looks to be LSU vs. Alabama on Nov 5th. Gonna keep a running tab on the Tigers and Tide throughout October to see where the line of the game would be were the game to be held at that moment. There is every chance that my guess will not budge from this starting point (a pretty dull but realistic thought), but what the hell, let’s see if this is interesting.

Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

College Football Site Recommendation

pat — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 00:26:44 +0000

For anyone looking to be humbled on the subject of college football I would encourage you to stumble upon the site “Pre-Snap Read“ It is beyond impressively run by Paul Myerberg who it seems is a college football guru for the New York Times. I am still uncertain how much of his material is subscribed out from freelancers or colleagues. If the answer is little to none I am wowed, definitely worth a check-out.

For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.” I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS. If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.

Two Hundo Posts on Miraclecovers

pat — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 23:59:40 +0000

And #200 is about…soccer, a game that has been slowly sucking me in over the last couple years. Over/under Premier League point totals are as follows. I will point out when a line is heavily weighted.

Man U : 81.5
Chelsea : 77.5 (over -130)
Man City : 74.5 (over -130)
Arsenal : 68.5 (over -138)
Tottenham : 59.5 (over -121)
Liverpool : 67.5 (over -123)
Everton : 55.5 (under -127)
Fulham : 48.5
Aston Villa : 53.5 (under -150)
Sunderland : 47.5
West Bromwich : 45.5
Newcastle : 46.5
Stoke City : 50.5 (under -155)
Bolton : 44.5
Blackburn : 37.5 (over -121)
Wigan : 36.5 (over -130)
Wolverhampton : 41.5
Norwich City : 35.5
Swansea City : 32.5 And last but certainly not least for TK
QPR : 38.5

This means that if the season were to play out as the bookies expect, TK’s lads would stay up with the Big Boys. As for Wigan…sorry DaGow. We shall see. More to come on this…

Baseball Bets

pat — Thu, 09 Jun 2011 20:01:08 +0000

When Lou signed on to be my bookie a few months ago, this was probably the crap he was envisioning. I think since the inception of this ‘Baseball Bets’ business I have had one winning day. Normally I make 3 or 4 picks and get 2 or 3 wrong. Good thing no actual money has been harmed in the production of this segment. Let’s see what’s going on after an 0-3 effort yesterday…

20 Units on Arizona/Pitt over 7.5 +104
17 Units on Astros +107
22 Units on Oakland +102

Current Unit Count : 837.76

Baseball Bets

pat — Wed, 08 Jun 2011 13:04:33 +0000

Asked the question in my last post why pinnacle takes so long to put reverse run lines up on its MLB betting page. It is round about 8AM EST and you could theoretically put down a bet as to who will strike out more guys in the first inning, D Lowe (+113) or Ricky Nolasco (-132) in the Braves/Marlins game. But you cannot bet the reverse run line.

“Whaaaaaat’s the deal with that?” J Seinfeld

If you read Lou’s take in the most recent post, you may get on him for not specifically answering the question, instead talking about the only times he finds it worth while to bet the RRL. But by pointing out that there are so few times when RRL is worth betting on, Lou is at least partially answering the question, expressing his opinion that there is little to no advantage in these lines; in not so many words, the idea these lines “are much shakier business for The House” is largely garbagely.

I am not entirely convinced on this. It’s not that I think there is real crazy value here, but something is weird. So I am continuing to try to figure stuff out as I write this. If you google “reverse run line,” these recent miraclecovers posts come up on the first page of links which should be a big indicator of how rare RRLs are.

Had 7 total bets the last time out, hitting the first 2 and losing the next 5, including all 4 Reverse Run Line bets. How great is that. 897.76 is where I stand now. Let’s go with…

16 Units on Cleveland -150
26 Units on Mets +153
18 Units on Seattle/Chicago under 8 +103

Would not be shocked if I came back for some RRL action later…

Reverse Run Lines – Baseball Bets

pat — Tue, 24 May 2011 13:14:39 +0000

I’m looking to point out that pinnacle only has run lines up for favorites on their primary MLB Bet page. This was a little trippy fact for me to clue-in on as it highlights how sneaky odds can be. If you were making a list of People with Exceptional Observational Skills, I would not be among the leaders. Makes me feel a bit like

Me = the mouse

Pinnacle = scientist

Favorite run line = slightly moldy cheese stuck right in front of me

Alternate run line = better quality cheese placed off to the side behind the paper mache curtains?

This might not be entirely accurate, but it is interesting that not only are the alternate run lines not on the main MLB page, but at this moment, 9 EST, the alternate run lines are still not up yet. They are in the “Betting to Be Available Soon” section. Do lines like these require extra work to figure out, or does pinnacle hold off putting them up because they are much shakier business for The House? This seems like a question for Dr Lou so I’m going to see if we can get him on here to discuss this. While doing 34 seconds of research on this issue I came across an internet thread “Does anyone know of a reliable book where you can parlay alternate run lines in baseball?” I like where all of this is headed.

20 Units on Baltimore -1.5 +131
17 Units On Red Sox -135
19 Units on Tampa Bay +150

Only one winner yesterday. 946.97 is where things stand

UPDATED NOTES AND PICKS…As of 2 EST the Alternate Run Lines were up on pinnacle. I have enough time on my hands to keep up with this over the next few days and try to figure out when these lines usually go up and attempt to get a reason for the delay. You would think it would be pretty much a set formula once the run lines are established. And now essentially obligated to insert reverse run line picks tonight, we’ll go with…

15 Units on Seattle -1.5 +175
12 Units on NY Mets -1.5 +197
33 Units on Colorado +1.5 -308
9 Units on Tampa Bay -1.5 +249

Baseball Bets

pat — Mon, 23 May 2011 20:02:40 +0000

This series of articles is growing decidedly boring. Something like this is really interesting if the picks end up being 90% right or 95% wrong, all I’m doing is slowly pissing away fake money. Dullllllllllll. I’ll try to get more imaginative or scrap this idea, but until then.

22 Units on Red Sox -118
17 Units on White Sox +142
14 Units on Mariners -102

-14.67 Net on my last series of picks bringing my total down to 972.24

Baseball Bets

pat — Sat, 21 May 2011 14:04:48 +0000

Net of -6.33 last entry. Slowly but surely losing money to The House, just the way God intends it. Let’s go with…

20 Units on Mariners -120
16 Units on Mets +161
14 Units on A’s +137

Net of 986.91. All games must be completed, if the Rapture happens all bets are off.

Baseball Bets

pat — Mon, 16 May 2011 20:12:07 +0000

Won with the Sox on the 16 Unit bet but lost on the other two for a net of -18.44 Units. Let’s see what is happening tonight…

18 Units on D-Backs/Padres under 9.5 -112
14 Units on Brewers/Dodgers under 7 -120

All for now, may try to sneak in a few more before first pitches…

Current Unit Count 993.24

Baseball Bets

pat — Sun, 15 May 2011 13:10:48 +0000

Realized a while back that the Tag Line on this site is “Winning at Sports.” Sheen owes us some royalties. On 11/27/09 (older entries), VT had recommended we change the name of the site to “Losing at Sports” during a cold streak for Louis. I can’t believe we missed the obvious that we could have changed the site name to “Lousing at Sports.”

Won with SF a few nights ago. 16 Unit bet on -137 kicks us off to 1011.68. Today we will go…

18 Units on Twins +114
16 Units on Red Sox -118
14 Units on Rangers/Angels under 8.5 -113

Current Unit Count 1011.68

1,000 Unit Baseball

pat — Thu, 12 May 2011 12:01:41 +0000

Coming up on a quarter way through the baseball season. Starting off with 1,000 units. I can make any baseball bet I come across on pinnacle; run line, over/under, prop…whatever. Let’s see what happens. Today we will do…

16 units San Fran -137 money line