I will take 2 units on Henrik Stenson at +3070 to win The Masters today.  Guy is only 5 shots back, I’ll go for a long shot.

#10  Pittsburgh Pirates (under 73)  ”Barmes is one of the worst regulars in baseball.”   “Presley is somewhat lacking in terms of power and speed. He had a distressing platoon split…”  ”(McGehee)…coming off one of the worst seasons of any regular.”  These are the player reviews for far too many Pirates, creating a starting lineup littered with players who would struggle to make most teams’ benches.  Something to keep in mind that may or may not mean something, going into the night of the 19 inning blown call game vs. Atlanta they were 53-47.  That means they finished last year at a 19-43 clip.  Yucky.

#9  Toronto Blue Jays (over 80.5)  I will tell you flat out the reason I now really like this pick.  A night or two ago Lou noted some line movement since I posted over/under totals back in mid-March for this contest.  Apparently Vegas has been back-pedaling big time with these guys.  Original number = 80.5 with a ton of juice on the over.  Current number = 83.  Wow.  And their bullpen looks filthy, if you are looking for some non-degenerate rationale to take the over.

#8  Los Angeles Dodgers (under 81)  This is a bit difficult.  The Dodgers roll out essentially the same team every year, and every year, with the recent exception of 2009, they finish smack dab around the .500 mark.  Except in 2011 they needed three things to happen to get there, 1) their best hitter to have a career year 2) their best pitcher to have a career year 3) and the team as a whole to have a rather too successful 34-20 mark to finish the season.  Matt Kemp went ahead and signed a Hamptonesque 8 year deal which means money is no longer a motivation.  After him, this lineup is not good; the infield may rank among the least productive of any mid to major market team this year.  The Mets proved last year that any rotation going into a season with Chris Capuano as a projected starter is not in the greatest of shape.

#7  Milwaukee Brewers (over 85)  Losing Fielder is a bitch.  But check this out.  Remember that guy McGehee earlier in the Pitt pick?  He was the Brewer starting 3B last year.  This year it’s Aramis Ramirez.  Remeber how Corey Hart missed the first month of the season to injury and still hit 26 home runs?  Remeber how Greinke was injured as well and missed his first few starts?  Remember how the Ryan Braun suspension got overturned and this number wouldn’t have been that crazy different if it hadn’t?  Remember how the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates are horrible.

#6  Kansas City Royals (over 76.5)  There is just the absolute slightest of half chances that the Royals actually win their division this year.  Luke Hochevar had a very positive second half last season and while Danny Duffy struggled, his minor league numbers suggest a much better performance this year.  Losing Soria is not ideal, but they have a very capable trio of Holland, Broxton, and Crow to lead the bullpen.  Slightly terrifying that their success rests heavily on both Francoeur and Alex Gordon having consecutive impressive years.

#5  Philadelphia Phillies (under 93)  Wanted to take the Marlin over, didn’t have the balls.  Wanted to take the Nationals over, didn’t have the balls.  So let’s do the next best thing and take this under.  Now I tried this garbage last year twice, taking the W Sox over and Yankee under extensively based on the comparative strengths of their divisions.  Result: 0-2.  So here’s another argument, Hunter Pence may at this time be the best regular in this lineup, just sayin’.  So pitching, Halladay is a 34 year old power pitcher, just sayin’.   Maybe Cole Hamels starts going down Zito Avenue…The 2011 Giants are proof enough that great pitching alone is not enough at times, and if that great pitching morphs into solid pitching this team will struggle.

#4  Tampa Bay Rays (over 86.5)  If this lineup was a bit more confidence inspiring this would be a top level pick.  Then again, their over/under would be through the roof if this lineup was primo.  Everyone knows the pitching staff should handle itself well.  This is all about if the bats can hold their side of the bargain.  I like their addition of Luke Scott to the lineup, a wrinkle that gives Maddon just an extra ounce of flexibility.  If they add a power hitting middle infielder this number becomes virtually automatic IMO.  Those keeping track, that’s 3 “ifs” for this pick, good thing only 3 picks left…

#3  Colorado Rockies (under 81.5)  This just does not look like a .500 club.  The rotation could be a disaster.  ”Speculate upon him in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, but don’t go overboard,” a quote from espn fantasy page on the team’s listed ace Chacin.  #2 starter Guthrie – “his fly ball tendencies are a major concern at Coors Field…tread carefully.”  #3 Pomeranz has 4 career starts and a plus 5 career era.  The #4 starter Juan Nicasio fractured a neck vertebrae about 7 or 8 months ago and Jamie Moyer will turn a half century old by the end of the year.  Suspect.

#2  Cleveland Indians (over 79.5)  Justifying this pick on two rather tenuous concepts.  I really like the back end of the Indian rotation with Tomlin/Gomez, and I like the youth movement led by the likes of Santana, Cabrera, and Kipnis, which should add excitement, energy, and skill to the club.  So again, I am justifying this pick on young talent and back end pitching.

#1  Texas Rangers (over 91)  The only mention I will make of the AL West.  This seems like the safest bet of the bunch, though picking the Rangers to do well always has a slight “when is the roof going to collapse” feel to it.  My confidence is bolstered by Mr. Met, Nolan Ryan working behind the scenes.

1. Anaheim (LA) Angels  91.5 (over -137)
2. Atlanta Braves  87.5 (under -145)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks  86.5 (over -134)
4. Baltimore Orioles  70.5 (under -139)
5. Boston Red Sox  90.5 (under -132)
6. Chicago Cubs  74.5 (under-142)
7. Chicago White Sox  76.5 (under -155)
8. Cincinnati Reds  87.5
9. Cleveland Indians  79.5
10. Colorado Rockies  81.5
11. Detroit Tigers  90.5  (over -149)
12. Houston Astros  63 (under -120)
13. Kansas City Royals  76.5 (over -177)
14. Los Angeles Dodgers  81
15. Miami Marlins  85.5 (over -122)  UPDATED
16. Milwaukee Brewers  85
17. Minnesota Twins  72.5 (over -144)
18. New York Mets  73.5 (under -163)
19. New York Yankees  93.5
20. Oakland A’s  72 (under -138)
21. Philadelphia Phillies  93
22. Pittsburgh Pirates  73
23. San Diego Padres  74 (under -143)
24. San Francisco Giants  87.5 (under -123)
25. Seattle Mariners  72
26. St Louis Cardinals  86.5 (under -149)
27. Tampa Bay Rays  86.5 (over -139)
28. Texas Rangers  91 (over -145)
29. Toronto Blue Jays  80.5 (over -161)
30. Washington Nationals  84

The Marlins are a little spazzy these days, apparently enough to keep pinnacle from posting an over/under line for them.  Either that or the intern couldn’t figure whether to put them under Miami or Florida and instead decided to take a long lunch.  That might sound ridiculous but Fauxdog.com, aka Bovada, has the team listed as the Miami Marlins, while they occupy a spot alphabetically appropriate for Florida Marlins.  They have the number at 83.5 so we’ll work with that for now.  More to follow on all this.

UPDATE

Pinnacle has the Marlins at 85.5, which is a full 2 games higher than what Bovada had.  Took a look at Bovada and sure enough the number there now sits at 84.5, a shift of an entire game over the last couple hours.  The 2012 Marlins’ slogan, “No one knows what the hell we’re going to do.”

“If we handle the ball like that, (Ohio State) can pick the score,” Self said. “Let’s just call it like it is. They will pick the score in our own building if we handle the ball like that…It will be a jailbreak if we turn the ball over against Ohio State. They won’t just be running out and scoring two points. They will be making plays that are ESPN top-10 plays.”  Quote ESPN college basketball blog.

There is no line yet.

UPDATE

Line: Ohio St (-3) @ Kansas.  I know nothing about college basketball at this moment in 2011, but I will be taking Ohio St here.  Let’s see what happens. 

Follow up dap on that game.  A while back I gave a shout out to the web site Pre Snap Read.  In Week 1 Oregon loses to LSU.  To most football people, that spells the end of the season right there.  Paul Myerberg saw differently, starting Sept 16th.  I quote…

“Oregon has begun the process of regaining the confidence lost in that prime time defeat. It’s a process: it begins against Nevada, continues against Missouri State and culminates, Oregon hopes, by the time the Ducks travel to Stanford in November…Oregon’s not going anywhere, despite a early stumble, and still clearly controls its own destiny in the quest for a third straight B.C.S. bowl berth.”  Brilliant.

Boxing.  I did not see a split second of the Pacquiao fight, but does it not seem that boxing, unlike any sport I can think of, bends over backwards to reward the favorite?  So many times it seems that officials, refs, umpires, of insert random sport here are attempting to help the underdog.  Every time I hear about a decision in boxing, it relates to the favorite squeaking by.  This has to have gambling implications.

I took San Diego this week against the Raiders at -7, so a forewarning there.  But I am pretty hot this year in my pick against the spread league.  I am 18-10 (counting the San Diego game) so from here in I am going to post the picks I make in that league.  3 picks a week.  With one burned I will take Seattle +7 and Indy +3.  How ugly are those picks?

• Akron (1-7) 3 @ Miami OH (3-5) 35
• Louisville (4-4) 38 @ West Virginia (6-2) 35
• Duke (3-5) 14 @ Miami FL (4-4) 49
• Vanderbilt (4-4) 21 @ Florida (4-4) 26
• Texas Tech (5-3) 20 @ Texas (5-2) 52
• Texas A&M (5-3) 25 @ Oklahoma (7-1) 41

We had created two groups.  Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma were teams with clearly better records than their opponent.  The second group of teams had very similar records as their opponent, but were much more likely to generate action from the betting public, explaining their large number.  Both groups went 2-1 ATS.  Conclusion – Nothing to really report.  Florida, following a season long pattern, seems particularly overrated.  Side Note – Notre Dame didn’t cover as 2 TD road fave.

• Akron (1-7) @ Miami OH (3-5)
• Louisville (4-4) @ West Virginia (6-2)
• Duke (3-5) @ Miami FL (4-4)
• Vanderbilt (4-4) @ Florida (4-4)
• Texas Tech (5-3) @ Texas (5-2)
• Texas A&M (5-3) @ Oklahoma (7-1)

Miami OH, West Virginia, and Oklahoma clearly have better records than their opponents.  Miami FL, Florida, and Texas have reputations.  Can you think of many trios more frequently backed by the betting public?  If you can, I bet Notre Dame is involved.  As coincidences would have it, ND is also a 2 TD favorite this week…on the road against a team with an identical record of all things.  I’ll post the final scores of these games next week.

• It is a night game which definitely adds some value to the home team (‘Bama)
• There are ongoing questions for LSU as to who exactly will be playing/suspended
• LSU’s QB situation cannot be considered fully locked-down
• Vegas is not run by idiots.  They know an awful lot of casual sport fans will bet this line thinking, “how the hell do you make the #1 team in the nation more than a field goal ‘dog ever?”  Knowing this, they have still made the line 4.5, something that definitely gives one pause

With all that said, I’ll be taking the points…

Pick : LSU +4.5

This week, we are going to say this situation exists in the Utah/Cal game.  Both have similar records, the difference is that the Cal coach, Jeff Tedford, is on the hot seat.  If Cal does not become bowl eligible this year (college speak for 6 wins, Lou), there is a definite chance he’ll be bounced.  If you look at the Cal schedule, they pretty much have to win this one.  So in a slight twist on the theme, this is a Career Must Win situation in addition to a Season Must Win.

Pick : Cal -3

Line as of Oct 11 : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

• Would have hit Boston over easy if not for the beyond epic collapse in September.  Obviously all the games count the same, but this is amazing.
• In the NY Yankee pick I noted the Yanks now have “three hitters that scare you and a whole lot of OK after that.”  Granderson was an OK guy.  Wrong.
• In my Houston over pick, more on that beauty in a moment, I noted “(the Astros’) rotation just isn’t the type that leads a team to 60 something wins.”  Don’t mean to brag, but I was pretty spot on with that.

At the end of the day I am pretty sure I went 1-for-10, back to the drawing board for next year.

Kudos to Louis for once again owning me on a long-range future bet, this time with his Houston Astros proposition for worst-record.  Actually enjoyed paying this bet out considering the degree of difficulty.  I thought I was legit fleecing Louis at 3.5:1 on the Astros.  Amazing stuff.

Line as of Sept 27th : LSU @ Alabama (-2.5)

For the purposes of our site it is especially worthwhile when Paul notes “picks to use as you will” and “lines I’d consider if this was my sort of thing.”  I came across a half dozen of those from games last week and he went 5-1 ATS.  If I have my act together I will update this post before the games this week and we can see how Pauly makes out.

• Man U : 81.5
• Chelsea : 77.5 (over -130)
• Man City : 74.5 (over -130)
• Arsenal : 68.5 (over -138)
• Tottenham : 59.5 (over -121)
• Liverpool : 67.5 (over -123)
• Everton : 55.5 (under -127)
• Fulham : 48.5
• Aston Villa : 53.5 (under -150)
• Sunderland : 47.5
• West Bromwich : 45.5
• Newcastle : 46.5
• Stoke City : 50.5 (under -155)
• Bolton : 44.5
• Blackburn : 37.5 (over -121)
• Wigan : 36.5 (over -130)
• Wolverhampton : 41.5
• Norwich City : 35.5
• Swansea City : 32.5          And last but certainly not least for TK
• QPR : 38.5

This means that if the season were to play out as the bookies expect, TK’s lads would stay up with the Big Boys.  As for Wigan…sorry DaGow.  We shall see.  More to come on this…

• 20 Units on Arizona/Pitt over 7.5 +104
• 17 Units on Astros +107
• 22 Units on Oakland +102

Current Unit Count : 837.76

“Whaaaaaat’s the deal with that?”  J Seinfeld

If you read Lou’s take in the most recent post, you may get on him for not specifically answering the question, instead talking about the only times he finds it worth while to bet the RRL.  But by pointing out that there are so few times when RRL is worth betting on, Lou is at least partially answering the question, expressing his opinion that there is little to no advantage in these lines; in not so many words, the idea these lines “are much shakier business for The House” is largely garbagely.

I am not entirely convinced on this.  It’s not that I think there is real crazy value here, but something is weird.  So I am continuing to try to figure stuff out as I write this.  If you google “reverse run line,” these recent miraclecovers posts come up on the first page of links which should be a big indicator of how rare RRLs are.

Had 7 total bets the last time out, hitting the first 2 and losing the next 5, including all 4 Reverse Run Line bets.  How great is that.  897.76 is where I stand now.  Let’s go with…

• 16 Units on Cleveland -150
• 26 Units on Mets +153
• 18 Units on Seattle/Chicago under 8 +103

Would not be shocked if I came back for some RRL action later…

Me = the mouse

Pinnacle = scientist

Favorite run line = slightly moldy cheese stuck right in front of me

Alternate run line = better quality cheese placed off to the side behind the paper mache curtains?

This might not be entirely accurate, but it is interesting that not only are the alternate run lines not on the main MLB page, but at this moment, 9 EST, the alternate run lines are still not up yet.  They are in the “Betting to Be Available Soon” section.  Do lines like these require extra work to figure out, or does pinnacle hold off putting them up because they are much shakier business for The House?  This seems like a question for Dr Lou so I’m going to see if we can get him on here to discuss this.  While doing 34 seconds of research on this issue I came across an internet thread “Does anyone know of a reliable book where you can parlay alternate run lines in baseball?”  I like where all of this is headed.

• 20 Units on Baltimore -1.5 +131
• 17 Units On Red Sox -135
• 19 Units on Tampa Bay +150

Only one winner yesterday.  946.97 is where things stand

UPDATED NOTES AND PICKS…As of 2 EST the Alternate Run Lines were up on pinnacle.  I have enough time on my hands to keep up with this over the next few days and try to figure out when these lines usually go up and attempt to get a reason for the delay.  You would think it would be pretty much a set formula once the run lines are established.  And now essentially obligated to insert reverse run line picks tonight, we’ll go with…

• 15 Units on Seattle -1.5 +175
• 12 Units on NY Mets -1.5 +197
• 33 Units on Colorado +1.5 -308
• 9 Units on Tampa Bay -1.5 +249

• 22 Units on Red Sox -118
• 17 Units on White Sox +142
• 14 Units on Mariners -102

-14.67 Net on my last series of picks bringing my total down to 972.24

• 20 Units on Mariners -120
• 16 Units on Mets +161
• 14 Units on A’s +137

Net of 986.91.  All games must be completed, if the Rapture happens all bets are off.