9, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9, 11, 9, 8. I think I got them all. If I was a father I would insert the obligatory “They threw out the 11 from the Ukrainian judge” bad dad joke (BDJ). These are over/unders for today. I can honestly say I have never seen anything like this, not even a 7.5 in the bunch. In order…
First thought, it’s Memorial Day, a lot of folks home with time to gamble. Heavier action than usual, “life’s too short for unders,” jack the lines and exploit.
Second thought, it’s Memorial Day, usually a day off, bullpens will be tired from the weekend, Vegas is accounting for this.
Third thought, see if there is a Memorial Day phenomenon. Last 2 years there were some heavy game totals but 2016 total was 121, 2015 total 124.
Fourth thought, well let’s put in a wager.
Total Runs Scored MLB Under 140.5 +100
Happy Memorial Day. Get better, Tiger. (30-for-30 Title “Struggles on the Backside”)
Over gets smushed thanks to our friends in Houston and Toronto. 154 if my math is right. The real lame part is Unders beat Overs 9-6 on the day. But the overs were over the rainbow. Not sure if that tells us anything interesting. Also Update on Tiger blowing a 0.00. Maybe he’s not in so rough shape. BDJ, BOOM!
This is a category that has always interested me. Today’s entry…
Yankees vs Royals Under 9 (-118)
Pineda vs Vargas
To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms. Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com). Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected. 1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).
18 Total Runs. Over hit before game’s halfway point. Hmm indeed.
Some thoughts looking at these numbers. I’ve noted before that seeing heavy juice on a line can affect your decision making. You try to come up with reasons on why to believe something. Case in point last year with the Orioles. Their line was somewhere between -170 and -180 on the under. They were a trendy pick to lose a bunch of games, but they played beyond expectations. Would I have felt so confident in them if they weren’t sitting at -173 or whatever on the under? I doubt it. Anyway let’s have a look.
Padres Under 66.5 – Not breaking new ground here. Several have noted that, on paper, they have the worst rotation in baseball. I am a fan of both Austin Hedges and Will Myers, but this lineup will consistently be littered with mediocrity. And if the lineup is bad the rotation is horrific. No starter is projected to have a sub 4.00 era in the pitchiest of pitcher’s parks. Jered Weavers fastball was so slow the other day MLB pitch tracker listed it as a changeup. (True)
Tigers Under 82.5 – Some of the Detroit blurbs are either hilarious or massively depressing according to viewpoint. “None of their options are attractive,” “got roughed up again,” “need to turn it around.” Reports note that in regards to position battles, one player fails while his teammate competitor “hasn’t exactly been great himself.” Anibal Sanchez has apparently worked on his mechanics and is looking like he may rebound which is a point against us.
Phillies Over 72.5 – Lot of young talent on Philadelphia. Plus you know you are generally not backing the trendy money when you are gambling on Philadelphia succeeding in anything.
Indians Over 93.5 – Well we have already gambled on Philadelphia doing well, let’s toss Cleveland in. Last year as I routinely kicked myself for taking that damn Baltimore Under the theme that kept coming back for me was how good their bullpen was. I am slightly nervous that Andrew Miller may be wearing down a bit. Even if that is the case this unit should be strong enough to carry this team. Hopefully a fully healthy year for Brantley.
Brewers Over 68.5 – The lineup by itself is certainly legitimate enough to clear this number. The issue will be how many games the pitching gives back. Craig Counsell seems like he’s due for some success.
Cubs Under 96.5 – To win this many games there has to be a minimum number of question marks. You could make the argument that the entire OF is one giant one. Jason Heyward is an enigma, Jon Jay is a far cry from Dexter Fowler, and when he isnt tearing ligaments Kyle Schwarber has played all of 40 games in LF. Wade Davis may be fine but is coming off injury. Hammel gone, Lackey ancient. Too many questions for me.
Royals Under 75.5 – As has been reported on quite a bit, the Royals have quite a few key players heading to free agency next year. Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Escobar…this is betting on the Royals selling at the trade deadline even if they’re in a spot that isn’t horrible.
Mets Over 87.5 – No reasoning necessary.
Angels Under 79.5 – My only offseason note for the Angels was to observe they had signed Ryan LaMarre to a major league contract, specifically 50k over the minimum. That’s all I got.
Yankees Under 82.5 – Sure.
Actual numbers first. Lines with heavy juice noted.
Blue Jays 85.5
Braves 74.5 (over -156)
Brewers 68.5 (over -161)
Cardinals 83.5 (over -152)
Cubs 96.5 (under -133)
D’backs 77.5 (over -139)
Marlins 76.5 (under -126)
Mets 87.5 (over -130)
Nationals 90.5 (over -130)
Padres 66.5 (under -142)
Rangers 85.5 (under -125)
Red Sox 92.5 (under -140)
Royals 75.5 (over -148)
Tigers 82.5 (under -126)
White Sox 68.5 (over -140)
I am not touching the game, but an interesting line tonight from baseball.
Texas Rangers (+177) vs NYY (-193)
I understand Tanaka is a better pitcher than Nick Martinez. I understand the Yankees are playing at home. What I do NOT understand is how this line is so high. America doesn’t understand either…
|06/29/16||Make Pick||963||Texas||8½o-115||1.5(-120)||170||o 9.0 (-120)||3256||49%||63%||41%|
|7:05PM||964||New York Yankees||-200/+170||-1.5(100)||-195||u 9.0 (100)||51%||37%||59%|
The 63% refers to people betting the Rangers ML. And I dont want to hear, “people are betting value.” Garbage, people are not bright. A line of interest indeed.
Now THAT is a bad beat for America. Vegas knows! The fix is in!
We are on a run. Let’s keep it going…
KC/NYY UNDER 8 -114
Scooped yesterday. I will figure out my bank at some point.
PIRATES -135 @ 16
Yada, yada, ball of suck…
ALL @ 16
People need to start paying attention to my baseball plays. Fading my action so far has been the best quick rich scheme to not involve a Wilpon in ages. Let’s start winning some.
All @ 16
Riding the anti-Oriole Express tonight. Have Jesse Hahn @ +112 @ 15. I’ll update my pathetic bank at some point. Have 3 bucks on Lani for Kentucky…