Author: pat
MLB O/Us
I am unqualified this year to give any legitimate thoughts on O/Us heading into the season. I may throw together a goofy-ass parlay on these at the end…as always…the #s…
A’s – 75.5 (o -135)
ARZ – 78.5 (o -135)
ATL – 88.5 (o -130)
BAL – 88.5 (o -135)
BOS – 87.5
CHC – 88.5
CIN – 81.5
CLE – 78.5
COL – 55.5
CWS – 67.5 (o -130)
DET – 85.5
HOU – 85.5
KC – 82.5 (o -135)
LAA – 70.5
LAD – 103.5
MIA – 72.5
MIL – 84.5 (o -130)
MIN – 72.5
NYM – 90.5
NYY – 90.5
PHI – 89.5
PIT – 78.5 (o -135)
SD – 83.5
SEA – 90.5
SFG – 81.5 (o -130)
StL – 69.5
TB – 76.5 (o -130)
TEX – 83.5 (o -130)
TOR – 88.5 (u -130)
WSH – 64.5
I just tried to create a goofy-ass parlay on a few of these but apparently that’s a No-no…Kinda makes sense, Im not hating Vegas. Ill be posting plays/ideas often moving forward…Stay tuned…
MLB O/Us 2025
Going to do my best to squeeze something smart out here, we will see. I have not looked at any of these yet and we are like 36 hours from first pitch. First things first, the actual #s…
- ARZ – 86.5 (o -150)
- A’s – 71.5 (o -165)
- ATL – 93.5
- BAL – 86.5 (o -130)
- BOS – 86.5 (o -145)
- CHC – 86.5
- CWS – 54.5
- CIN – 79.5 (o -145)
- CLE – 81.5
- COL – 59.5
- DET – 83.5 (o -130)
- HOU – 86.5
- KC – 82.5 (o -130)
- LAA – 71.5
- LAD – 104.5 (o -140)
- MIA – 63.5 (u -130)
- MIL – 83.5 (o -140)
- MIN – 84.5
- NYM – 90.5
- NYY – 88.5
- PHI – 90.5
- PIT – 75.5 (o -130)
- SD – 85.5
- SFG – 80.5 (o -130)
- SEA – 85.5 (o -130)
- StL – 75.5
- TB – 81.5
- TEX – 85.5 (o -135)
- TOR – 78.5 (o -150)
- WSH – 71.5 (o -140)
Ill post impressions and picks in next post.
Pre-Thanksgiving Week NFL O/U Update
Update #2 on NFL Win Total O/U. Same deal as the first one, # in parenthesis is the live O/U. Color coding of green = good, red = poor, purple = steady. These are rounded a bit if there’s heavy juice…Gowin was the slim leader over JaPan in the first update but now that role has flipped. Van, Gowin and Darts are all virtually locked-in to at least 2 Ls where Pan only has 1. Pan, tho, has several teams whose final total would be considered a coin-flip at this point. There is a universe where everyone finishes 5-3..Happy Holidays.
| VT | Gowin | Darts | JaPan |
| Pats u4.5 (4.5) | Falcons o9.5 (9.5) | Broncos o5.5 (9.5) | Packers o9.5 (11.5) |
| Chiefs o11.5 (14) | Cardinals o6.5 (9) | Cowboys u10.5 (6.5) | 49ers o11.5 (8) |
| Dolphins o9.5 (8) | Giants u6.5 (3.5) | Bills u10.5 (13) | Bengals u10.5 (8) |
| Commanders o6.5 (10) | Steelers u8.5 (11) | Titans o6.5 (5.5) | Rams o8.5 (8) |
| Jags o8.5 (4) | Colts u8.5 (8) | Jets o9.5 (5.5) | Browns u8.5 (4.5) |
| Vikings u6.5 (12) | Lions o10.5 (14) | Raiders o6.5 (4) | Seahawks o7.5 (9) |
| Panthers u5.5 (4.5) | Ravens o10.5 (11.5) | Bucs o8.5 (9) | Saints u7.5 (7) |
| Eagles o10.5 (13.5) | Bears o8.5 (5.5) | Chargers o8.5 (10.5) | Texans o9.5 (10) |
NFL Win Total O/Us at Somewhere Around the 1/3rd Mark
This is a check-up to see how a few of us are doing on these…The number is parenthesis is the live Vegas O/U line. If that # has outrageous juice to it I rounded…If the entry is in green, the pick is tracking well. Red, not so much. Purple is steady as she goes. Let’s see how we are doing…
| VT | Gowin | Darts | JaPan |
| Pats u4.5 (4.5) | Falcons o9.5 (10.5) | Broncos o5.5 (7.5) | Packers o9.5 (10.5) |
| Chiefs o11.5 (13.5) | Cardinals o6.5 (7.5) | Cowboys u10.5 (8.5) | 49ers o11.5 (10) |
| Dolphins o9.5 (7.5) | Giants u6.5 (6) | Bills u10.5 (11) | Bengals u10.5 (8.5) |
| Commanders o6.5 (10) | Steelers u8.5 (9.5) | Titans o6.5 (5) | Rams o8.5 (6.5) |
| Jags o8.5 (6) | Colts u8.5 (8.5) | Jets o9.5 (8) | Browns u8.5 (4.5) |
| Vikings u6.5 (12) | Lions o10.5 (11) | Raiders o6.5 (5.5) | Seahawks o7.5 (8) |
| Panthers u5.5 (4.5) | Ravens o10.5 (11.5) | Bucs o8.5 (9.5) | Saints u7.5 (7.5) |
| Eagles o10.5 (10.5) | Bears o8.5 (8.5) | Chargers o8.5 (9.5) | Texans o9.5 (11.5) |
MLB Season O/Us Heading to Final Week…
And now an update from the 2-man draft Van and I did. Let’s see how things are going…If a pick is in red it has already failed, if its green it has hit…in blue means things are still ‘up in the air’ With one week of action remaining the set records are…VT – 5-8, PD – 6-4. There are 7 still open… *UP* VT – 6-9, PD 8-7.
PD – SFG o84.5
VT – O’s o90.5 – BAL has fallen-off late. Need a 5-1 finish for this to hit….*UP* Over Hits
VT – DET u81.5
PD – StL u84.5 – Hasnt hit yet but they would need to go undefeated for this to miss. Likely W…*UP* Under Hits
PD – SD u83.5 – A dominant 2nd half took a coin-flip to an L
VT – LAA u71.5
VT – MIA u77.5 – Strong, smart picks here
PD – WSH o66.5
PD – PIT o76.5 – PIT needs to go 4-2 for this to hit…*UP* Over Misses
VT – ATL o101.5 – No luck with this one
VT – HOU o92.5 – Im glad this wont hit more for humanity
PD – TOR u87.5 – This was always hitting
PD – A’s o57.5 – Easy
VT – CWS u61.5 – Very good
VT – TB o85.5
PD – BOS o77.5
PD – NYY u92.5 – This will be a L, just need to win once in last week *UP* Under Misses
VT – COL u60.5 – Likely L, same with NYY. 1 W gets them Over *UP* Under Misses
VT – CIN u82.5
PD – CHC u84.5 – Likely W, need to go 5-1 for Over *UP* Under Hits
PD – ARZ o84.5
VT – TEX o88.5 – Never a prayer
VT – MIL u77.5 – I liked this pick when VT made it and likely would have made it next. Not close
PD – PHI u90.5
PD – CLE u80.5 – Awful stretch picks for both of us. Tbf these are the scraps at this pt…
VT – KC o73.5 – Excellent and brave pick. KC demolishes LYs W total and covers easy here
VT – SEA o87.5
PD – MIN o86.5 – 1 L makes this a Loss *UP* Over Misses
PD – NYM o81.5
VT – LAD o103.5
NFL O/U Win Total Chart
Below are results of snake-draft O/Us. When the season is a bit more underway these will be color-coded to see which are tracking well/poorly.
| VT | Gowin | Darts | JaPan |
| Pats u4.5 | Falcons o9.5 | Broncos o5.5 | Packers o9.5 |
| Chiefs o11.5 | Cardinals o6.5 | Cowboys u10.5 | 49ers o11.5 |
| Dolphins o9.5 | Giants u6.5 | Bills u10.5 | Bengals u10.5 |
| Commanders o6.5 | Steelers u8.5 | Titans o6.5 | Rams o8.5 |
| Jags o8.5 | Colts u8.5 | Jets o9.5 | Browns u8.5 |
| Vikings u6.5 | Lions o10.5 | Raiders o6.5 | Seahawks o7.5 |
| Panthers u5.5 | Ravens o10.5 | Bucs o8.5 | Saints u7.5 |
| Eagles o10.5 | Bears o8.5 | Chargers o8.5 | Texans o9.5 |
Ongoing NFL O/U Draft
VT – Patriots Under 4.5
Allen – Falcons Over 9.5
Darts – Broncos Over 5.5
Pan – Packers Over 9.5
Pan – 49ers Over 11.5
Darts – Cowboys Under 10.5
Allen – Cards Over 6.5
VT – Chiefs Over 11.5
VT – Dolphins Over 9.5
Allen – Giants Under 6.5
Darts – Bills Under 10.5
Pan – Bengals Under 10.5
Pan – Rams Over 8.5
Darts – Titans Over 6.5
Allen – Steelers Under 8.5
Van – Commanders Over 6.5
Van – Jags Over 8.5
Allen – Colts Under 8.5
Darts – Jets Over 9.5
Pan – Browns Under 8.5
Pan – Seahawks Over 7.5
Darts – Raiders Over 6.5
Allen – Lions Over 10.5
Van – Vikings Under 6.5
Van – Panthers Under 5.5
Allen – Ravens Over 10.5
Darts – Buccaneers Over 8.5
Pan – Saints Under 7.5
Pan – Texans Over 9.5
Darts – Chargers Over 8.5
Allen – Bears Over 8.5
Van – Eagles Over 10.5
Early Overs
Start of season Overs are scalding hot ATM. They have hit somewhere in the area of 2/3rds of the time, and then last night was just an over orgy. There appear to be a few exceptions that I can see…Mets, Rockies, White Sox, and Athletics really jump off the page as not joining in on the run-fun. For the next couple nights we are going to track (and most likely bet) the following…
TT Unders for NYM, COL, CWS and OAK
Gm Overs for everyone else
Let’s see how this plays out. Will update.
Easter Sinner
Jannik Sinner dominated the Miami Open over the last couple of weeks, an occurrence which has prompted me to look up Future Lines for the remaining 2024 Grand Slams. I have zero issues on most of the lines…Alcaraz and Djok are clear #1 and #2 respectively for the French, Nadal at #3 seems highly optimistic but who knows. Same at Wimbledon, where last year Alcaraz somewhat stunningly won his first grass tournament at Queens Club and then improbably followed that up with his first Wimbledon title. Alcaraz and Djok running 1A/1B there seems very justified…
But the US Open odds are where things seem super interesting. If you go back to early/mid January, the Future Odds were more or less this…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +150
Medvedev +800
Sinner +800
But lets move forward to a post-AO ’24 world…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +160
Sinner +350
Medvedev +700
Over the last few months, Jannik wins his first major (taking down Djok in the process) and destroys the field (incl Medvedev) in Miami. He compiles a record of 16-1 (all on hard-courts). His lone loss comes to Alcaraz in SFs @ Indian Wells, a match Vegas makes Sinner a slight favorite in…So if Sinner is strolling around beating Djok and Meddy, while being favored over Alcaraz, I think a smart move is to capitalize on the “line lag” going on with the US Open. Yes, Sinner has yet to win in New York…The furthest Sinner has gone @ US is QF 2022 (5-setter vs Alcaraz), and he gets bounced LY in another 5-setter vs Zverev in the Round of 16. But again, that is pre-AO Sinner…The dam has been breached. I believe at this exact moment Sinner is the best hard-court player on the planet. Sinner (+350) ’24 US Open Future is the recommendation. There is a chance we don’t see a hard-court number this high next to Sinner for quite some time.
MLB Over/Unders – A New Twist on an Old Theme
Normally in this space we would write about a half-dozen or so season-long Over/Under picks…friend of the program Van Tran suggested he and I do a snake-draft on these this year, so below I am going to record the results of that draft and add a few thoughts when they come to me. We automatically gave ourselves Overs on our respective teams, (Mets and LAD)…I had first pick.
PD #1 – SF Giants Over 84.5
VT #2 – O’s Over 90.5
VT #3 – Tigers Under 81.5
PD #4 – StL Under 84.5 I borderline despise myself for this pick, it is as anti-sharp as a pick can get. But that doesn’t mean it wont happen…the way I rationalize the selection is Vegas was going to get enough money placed on StL to win the division that this O/U had to be in this ballpark. In a very sick way I would have preferred taking this Under @ like 79 or something.
PD #5 – Padres Under 83.5
VT #6 – LAA Under 71.5
VT #7 – Marlins Under 77.5
PD #8 – Nationals Over 66.5
PD #9 – Pirates Over 76.5
VT #10 – ATL Over 101.5
VT #11 – Astros Over 92.5
PD #12 – TOR Under 87.5
PD #13 – A’s Over 57.5
VT #14 – CWS Under 61.5
VT #15 – TB Over 85.5
PD #16 – Red Sox Over 77.5 Eno Sarris from The Athletic is way higher on the potential for the Boston rotation than essentially anyone else Ive come across, and I usually trust what he thinks. Also Alex Cora is one of like 3-5 managers in baseball that I think makes a tangible positive difference to a teams performance and results.
PD #17 – NYY Under 92.5
VT #18 – Rockies Under 60.5
VT #19 – Reds Under 82.5
PD #20 – CHC Under 84.5
PD #21 – D’backs Over 84.5
VT #22 – TEX Over 88.5
VT #23 – Brewers Under 77.5 This is going to be a race to the finish-line in my opinion…All indications point to Milwaukee being way worse this year than in the recent past. How long can the players on the field keep the boat afloat as it is sinking towards the end of the season?
PD #24 – Philly Under 90.5
PD #25 – Cleve Under 80.5
VT #26 – KC Over 73.5 This and the Milwaukee line are why Vegas is evil. Everyone knows MIL will likely be worse, so Vegas drops a lead weight on their win total and asks, “How low are you willing to go?” KC has a young, fun team that is going to be better than last year. “You want to root for their Over this year? Well lets see them win EIGHTEEN MORE GAMES! HA!”
VT #27 – Seattle Over 87.5
PD #28 – Minn Over 86.5
PD #29 – NYM Over 81.5
VT #30 – LAD Over 103.5