Author: pat

College FB Holiday Plays

Went .500 on Saturday.  Couple more plays for holiday weekend…

W Virginia (+5) @ Va Tech (n)  WVU has a “havoc-loving” DC as well as 2 very capable safeties, which would seem to spell trouble for opposing teams with an inexperienced QB.  Que redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.

Tennessee @ Ga Tech (+3) (n)  Ga Tech had more 4 Star recruits this year than in the last 4 or 5 years combined.  Positive trajectory.  Tennessee meanwhile loses a boatload of talent this year, which should make life difficult for Butch Davis at the onset.

Week 1 NCAAF

Mostly underdogs.  I wasnt going to touch the Nevada/Northwestern O/U but it has gone up something like 9 points since it opened.

Bowling Green +17 @ Mich St  Spartys in jail

Wyoming +12 @ Iowa  Josh Allen introduced to America

California +13 @ UNC  Cal’s offense is based on creating one-on-one match-ups.  It apparently thrives in some cases but fails miserably when the opposing D has skill players that win individual battles.  UNC’s defense is supposed to be improved but we are banking on them still being a lower tier D

Troy +9.5 @ Boise St  According to RotoWorld, Troy “houses one of the most prolific offenses in the Group of 5 behind QB Brandon Silvers and RB Jordan Chunn.”  RoWo adds the offense has “as much stability as any in the nation.”

Ga Southern @ Auburn -33.5  Auburn’s Nat’l Champ odds have gone from roughly 50:1 to 20:1 in recent weeks

Arkansas St +14.5 @ Nebraska  DE Rolland-Jones goes to town as Nebraska’s weak WR corp fails to get open in time

Vandy @ MTSU +3.5  Excellent WR corp wins against Mason’s very capable D.

Nevada @ Northwestern Under 61

College FB Stuff

Over/Unders.

There are some teams to focus on throughout this year.

The Good – OK St (9), Auburn (8.5), Miami FL(9)

AND

The Interesting – ASU (5), Kansas (3), Mich St (6.5), Miss St (5.5), Nebraska (7), Ole Miss (5.5), Oregon St (5.5)

Notice I am posting this after the season has already started for a few teams.  I am getting these numbers from a website entitled “Last Minute College Football Team Wins.”  This is me screaming at a bunch of horses starting out from the gate “WAIT! COME BACK! DO ANY OF YOU HAVE MEDICAL CONDITIONS?!?!”

The offenses for Oklahoma St and Auburn should be very good.  Auburn has Baylor transfer Stidham who many believe will be the difference maker to put Auburn back in the SEC Champ conversation.  Miami allowed just 18.5 points per game last season, and they may well be better in 2017…all 8 defenders who recorded at least six TFL and two sacks last season return.  Just one bet from this group.  Miami FL (over 9)

Did you know there is one team in college football that has had the worst passing D in the country two years in a row?  ASU should be in for a lot of shoot-outs, former 5Star QB Blake Barnett transfers in.  We are too late to bet on them but a 3 or 4 win season sounds believable, and we will bet accordingly ATS, lot of high scoring, non-covers like last night’s game.  I am sure things have improved since, but as of mid May ASU had ZERO recruit commitments for 2018.   This looks like a program with a bad trajectory.  Speaking of bad trajectories, everybody is getting arrested and/or suspended at Mich St. We will take Mich St (under 6.5)

Kansas @ 3 is insanely tempting.  Great DLine stuff, their new OC was co-OC @ TCU during their renaissance.  But I think ultimately we are just going to bet them on specific match-ups.  They lose a ton of talent in secondary.  Bill Connelly notes “massive turnover in the secondary is the strongest predictor of defensive regression.”  Nevertheless expect to see Kansas as a pick frequently ATS.

One of the horses I was screaming at is Oregon St, too late to do anything with them but expect them to get better as the year goes on.  The “upstart Beavers suddenly have depth at multiple positions” as RotoWorld points out.  They lost a bunch of close coin flip games last year, RB Nall could be a beast this year.  We will have bets with them moving forward.

Not much insight into Nebraska except they seem quite thin @ WR.  This was before Keyshawn Jr was busted for weed.  They had a very late decommit who wound up going to Wash St.  They also lose a very good, experienced corner Chris Jones due to surgery.  Nebraska (under 7)

Who the Hell knows what Ole Miss will do.  Shea Patterson should put up great numbers and I would lean towards their over, similar situation with Miss St.  Everything you read is positive.  New DC is a guy with consistent top20 Defenses in the past when @ Louisville and UGA.  A quote regarding their LB Green, “(Green) won’t just take a starting role because of his age, he’s earning it with his play.”  Good stuff.  Miss St (over 5.5)

 

 

 

 

Premier League

Point Season Over/Unders.  Im going to post these in the order they appear on Pinnacle.  What is a bit odd is they have the teams not listed in alphabetical order, or order how they finished last year, or by their respective total lines.  They look to have them in the order they expect the teams to finish in the table this year.

Man City 81.5 (over -126)

Man U 79.5 (under -171)

Chelsea 76.5

Tottenham 75.5 (under -159)

Arsenal 70.5 (over -146)

Liverpool 69.5 (over -155)

Everton 57.5

Leicister 49.5 (under -126)

Southampton 54.5

Newcastle 38.5 (over -190)

Crystal Palace 40.5 (over -137)

Stoke City 44.5 (under -140)

West Ham 47.5

Bournemouth 42.5 (over -127)

Swansea 38.5 (under -122)

West Brom 42.5 (under -150)

Burnley 35.5

Watford 37.5 (over -145)

Brighton 34.5 (over -156)

Huddersfield 28.5 (over -152)

 

 

 

 

 

Quick Play

Reds (-142) @ 18

 

Memorial Under

9, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9, 11, 9, 8.  I think I got them all.  If I was a father I would insert the obligatory “They threw out the 11 from the Ukrainian judge” bad dad joke (BDJ).  These are over/unders for today.  I can honestly say I have never seen anything like this, not even a 7.5 in the bunch.  In order…

First thought, it’s Memorial Day, a lot of folks home with time to gamble.  Heavier action than usual, “life’s too short for unders,” jack the lines and exploit.

Second thought, it’s Memorial Day, usually a day off, bullpens will be tired from the weekend, Vegas is accounting for this.

Third thought, see if there is a Memorial Day phenomenon.  Last 2 years there were some heavy game totals but 2016 total was 121, 2015 total 124.

Fourth thought, well let’s put in a wager.

Total Runs Scored MLB Under 140.5 +100 

Happy Memorial Day.  Get better, Tiger.  (30-for-30 Title “Struggles on the Backside”)

****UPDATE****

Over gets smushed thanks to our friends in Houston and Toronto.  154 if my math is right.  The real lame part is Unders beat Overs 9-6 on the day.  But the overs were over the rainbow.  Not sure if that tells us anything interesting.  Also Update on Tiger blowing a 0.00.  Maybe he’s not in so rough shape.  BDJ, BOOM!

Lines That Make you Go Hmm

This is a category that has always interested me.  Today’s entry…

Yankees vs Royals  Under 9 (-118)

Pineda vs Vargas

To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms.  Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com).  Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected.  1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).

****UPDATE****

18 Total Runs.  Over hit before game’s halfway point.  Hmm indeed.

MLB Over/Under Picks

Some thoughts looking at these numbers.  I’ve noted before that seeing heavy juice on a line can affect your decision making.  You try to come up with reasons on why to believe something.  Case in point last year with the Orioles.  Their line was somewhere between -170 and -180 on the under.  They were a trendy pick to lose a bunch of games, but they played beyond expectations.  Would I have felt so confident in them if they weren’t sitting at -173 or whatever on the under?  I doubt it.  Anyway let’s have a look.

Padres Under 66.5 – Not breaking new ground here.  Several have noted that, on paper, they have the worst rotation in baseball.  I am a fan of both Austin Hedges and Will Myers, but this lineup will consistently be littered with mediocrity.  And if the lineup is bad the rotation is horrific.  No starter is projected to have a sub 4.00 era in the pitchiest of pitcher’s parks.  Jered Weavers fastball was so slow the other day MLB pitch tracker listed it as a changeup.  (True)

Tigers Under 82.5 – Some of the Detroit blurbs are either hilarious or massively depressing according to viewpoint.  “None of their options are attractive,” “got roughed up again,” “need to turn it around.”  Reports note that in regards to position battles, one player fails while his teammate competitor “hasn’t exactly been great himself.”  Anibal Sanchez has apparently worked on his mechanics and is looking like he may rebound which is a point against us.

Phillies Over 72.5 – Lot of young talent on Philadelphia.  Plus you know you are generally not backing the trendy money when you are gambling on Philadelphia succeeding in anything.

Indians Over 93.5 – Well we have already gambled on Philadelphia doing well, let’s toss Cleveland in.  Last year as I routinely kicked myself for taking that damn Baltimore Under the theme that kept coming back for me was how good their bullpen was.  I am slightly nervous that Andrew Miller may be wearing down a bit.  Even if that is the case this unit should be strong enough to carry this team.  Hopefully a fully healthy year for Brantley.

Brewers Over 68.5 – The lineup by itself is certainly legitimate enough to clear this number.  The issue will be how many games the pitching gives back.  Craig Counsell seems like he’s due for some success.

Cubs Under 96.5 – To win this many games there has to be a minimum number of question marks.  You could make the argument that the entire OF is one giant one.  Jason Heyward is an enigma, Jon Jay is a far cry from Dexter Fowler, and when he isnt tearing ligaments Kyle Schwarber has played all of 40 games in LF.  Wade Davis may be fine but is coming off injury.  Hammel gone, Lackey ancient.  Too many questions for me.

Royals Under 75.5 – As has been reported on quite a bit, the Royals have quite a few key players heading to free agency next year.  Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Escobar…this is betting on the Royals selling at the trade deadline even if they’re in a spot that isn’t horrible.

Mets Over 87.5 – No reasoning necessary.

Angels Under 79.5 – My only offseason note for the Angels was to observe they had signed Ryan LaMarre to a major league contract, specifically 50k over the minimum.  That’s all I got.

Yankees Under 82.5 – Sure.

 

 

 

MLB Over/Under

Actual numbers first.  Lines with heavy juice noted.

Angels 79.5

Astros 91.5

Athletics 73.5

Blue Jays 85.5

Braves 74.5 (over -156)

Brewers 68.5 (over -161)

Cardinals 83.5 (over -152)

Cubs 96.5 (under -133)

D’backs 77.5 (over -139)

Dodgers 94.5

Giants 88.5

Indians 93.5

Mariners 85.5

Marlins 76.5 (under -126)

Mets 87.5 (over -130)

Nationals 90.5 (over -130)

Orioles 80.5

Padres 66.5 (under -142)

Phillies 72.5

Pirates 83

Rangers 85.5 (under -125)

Rays 78.5

Red Sox 92.5 (under -140)

Reds 69.5

Rockies 80.5

Royals 75.5 (over -148)

Tigers 82.5 (under  -126)

Twins 74.5

White Sox 68.5 (over -140)

Yankees 82.5

 

 

A Line of Interest

I am not touching the game, but an interesting line tonight from baseball.

Texas Rangers (+177) vs NYY (-193)

I understand Tanaka is a better pitcher than Nick Martinez.  I understand the Yankees are playing at home.  What I do NOT understand is how this line is so high.  America doesn’t understand either…

06/29/16 Make Pick

963 Texas 8½o-115 1.5(-120) 170 o 9.0 (-120) 3256 49% 63% 41%
7:05PM 964 New York Yankees -200/+170 -1.5(100) -195 u 9.0 (100) 51% 37% 59%

The 63% refers to people betting the Rangers ML.  And I dont want to hear, “people are betting value.”  Garbage, people are not bright.   A line of interest indeed.

***UPDATE***

Now THAT is a bad beat for America.  Vegas knows!  The fix is in!