Author: pat

Weekend Plays

Will post here with any football plays, frantically trying to go back in time and catch up on hockey and basketball.

Kansas St @ Kansas (+24 -106)

It is a depressing thought it is already Week 9 for College Football.  Waaaaaaaaaaaay back at the beginning of the season I noted how tempting Kansas’ season over looked @ 3.  Ultimately, it was a pass, based largely on analysis from Bill Connelly, who noted that the massive turnover Kansas was going to experience this year in their secondary was a giant, sprawling, waving in your face red flag re: defensive success.  Thankfully, we have steered clear of the Jayhawks, but this seems like a good match-up to take a chance on them.  Kansas St does not have one of the better aerial attacks in the Big-12, and 90% of the money is on the Wildcats.  Kansas seems due, let’s hope.

Premier League

07.00 Manchester City -885 -2.5 and -3+102
Over 3.5

-136

Under 3.5

+123

Burnley +2345 +2.5 and +3-109
Draw +1140

Look at that.  Now that is a line with some balls to it.

Burnley (+2.5 and +3) -109

Also taking Raiders +3 tonight.

NFL Plays

Good day yesterday, let’s see if we can keep it rolling.  I’ll update with any last second action.

Ravens/Raiders Over 40 -105

The Ravens are due for some positivity on offense, and the Raiders’ secondary is just mediocre enough that I think Flacco will have a good day.  EJ Manuel was actually moving the team a bit after Carr went down.

 

NCAA Plays

How about Sean going 3-0 on picks Last Week!  How about Lou well above .500 on his Hilton picks! How about me still trying!  Let’s make some bets

WKU @ UTEP +17.5 -110

Did you know W Kentucky led the NCAA in scoring last year?  They lost multiple impact skill position type guys and have not come close to matching their output.  UTEP has a groundcentric attack.  They have a guard Will Hernandez who is OBIN (One of the Best In the Nation).  UTEP controls the clock, keeps WKU’s not so high-flying attack in check, and maybe even pulls out the win outright.  Or they lose by 35.

Iowa St +31 -106 @ Oklahoma

Iowa St has a bunch of tall, athletic WRs.  Eaton and Lazard are the best of the bunch.  In my team notes for Oklahoma I have this entry for April 15th…”Thru transfers, grad, suspensions, injuries CB sitch thinnish.  *UPDATE* Lost a S (KOT), 2ndary takes another hit.”  I am too lazy to go back and see what the Hell “KOT” means…I mean, it sure sounds bad.  They also lost a CB named Parker (who started 8 games LY) for the season in the 1st week.  All of this hopefully translates to Iowa St putting up at least 21 points.

Fresno St @ San Jose St +17 -105

Can’t remember who it was but there was a decent team a few years ago who was getting way too much love from the public and their spreads were inflated in borderline Patriot fashion.  If they were favored by 12, the tagline would be, “I don’t care who they’re playing, they shouldn’t be 12 pt faves over anybody.”  The easy bet for a few weeks was to fade them against the spread not because they weren’t good, but because they weren’t that good.  San Jose St is awful, but Fresno St is no peach themselves.  This is strictly, 100%, a bet against Fresno St, who I believe isn’t 17 points better than just about anyone, a theory San Jose St is going to really test.

Weekend Plays

Not sure how many plays will happen this weekend.  ATM (At the moment) only have New Mexico St +17.5 @ Arkansas.  New Mexico St is surprisingly competent against the run, which is Arkansas’ preferred attack.  I will talk myself into some increasingly sketchy plays throughout the weekend, stay tuned.

UPDATE 1…Sketchy Bet Scale (4/10)

New Mexico St @ Arkansas Under 61.5 -116

This would be an absolutely legitimate, 1 out of 10 on the sketchy bet scale, if it wasn’t for our previous action.  Now to hit both bets we need something like 30-21.  Hence (4/10).  NMSt’s point totals this year are deceptive, both on offense and defense.

UPDATE 2…Sketchy Scale (2.5/10)

Bills +8 -108

Both NM St and the Under would have hit with “Just One Fucking Stop.”  JOFS may sound like a sabermetriccy, analytical deally.  “The Knicks are hitting under 40% on JOFS for the season.”  No.  It also sounds like it should be plural.  Again, no, it is very much a singular event.  JOFS is a favorite of Unders and Underdogs.  When Oklahoma St is favored by 47 over UAB, at some point, you are going to need JOFS.  We didnt get it yesterday.  I really like the Bills here.  ALL of the money is going on Atlanta and yet the line has gone down from 9.5 to 8.  The only slight drag is we didnt get it at the original spread.

UPDATE 3…Sketch Scale (3/10)

Lions @ Vikings -2.5 -108

Pretty normal bet, except we are not only banking on Case Keenum playing well, but doing it for the second week in a row.  Veteran journeymen usually are not the most consistent bunch.  They sign a deal, get thrown into action, and pull a couple games of Fitzmagic out of their ass here and there to earn another contract somewhere else.  Interesting to view the Lions’ mojo after losing in brutal fashion last week.

NCAAF Plays

No justification for these.  When I post some winners then I will wax poetic about how deep my insights are.

Pitt +9.5 -103
Boston Coll +34 +100
Mich/Purd Over 51.5 -105
ODU +28 -106
UNLV +41 -104
Houston -6.5 -114
Arkansas St/SMU Under 73.5 -107
Ball St/WKU Over 51 -107
UL Monroe +6.5 -102

Lord of Nationally Televised Broadcasts

There’s sports handicapping, and then there’s handicapping prime-time, nationally televised games.  In the first, the sports world is your buffet, it is up to you to pick out a couple of items from dozens of choices.  Based on sheer volume, there are going to be lazy lines, or games where info may be difficult to quantify in an algorithm, or public sentiment, or whatever.  Not so much, when there is only one or 2 games going on, though.  To anyone (including myself) who pops out an overall record, the subsection should be record in games played when the Eye of Sauron is blasting down full force.  So sometimes you let others lead the direct attacks on spreads and money lines, while you sneak around to get in on the action.  Temple had the #2 pass D last yr in college football.  They lose Reddick to the pros, but bring back a decent amount of talent…

Team Total : USF Under 40 -115

College FB Holiday Plays

Went .500 on Saturday.  Couple more plays for holiday weekend…

W Virginia (+5) @ Va Tech (n)  WVU has a “havoc-loving” DC as well as 2 very capable safeties, which would seem to spell trouble for opposing teams with an inexperienced QB.  Que redshirt freshman Josh Jackson.

Tennessee @ Ga Tech (+3) (n)  Ga Tech had more 4 Star recruits this year than in the last 4 or 5 years combined.  Positive trajectory.  Tennessee meanwhile loses a boatload of talent this year, which should make life difficult for Butch Davis at the onset.

Week 1 NCAAF

Mostly underdogs.  I wasnt going to touch the Nevada/Northwestern O/U but it has gone up something like 9 points since it opened.

Bowling Green +17 @ Mich St  Spartys in jail

Wyoming +12 @ Iowa  Josh Allen introduced to America

California +13 @ UNC  Cal’s offense is based on creating one-on-one match-ups.  It apparently thrives in some cases but fails miserably when the opposing D has skill players that win individual battles.  UNC’s defense is supposed to be improved but we are banking on them still being a lower tier D

Troy +9.5 @ Boise St  According to RotoWorld, Troy “houses one of the most prolific offenses in the Group of 5 behind QB Brandon Silvers and RB Jordan Chunn.”  RoWo adds the offense has “as much stability as any in the nation.”

Ga Southern @ Auburn -33.5  Auburn’s Nat’l Champ odds have gone from roughly 50:1 to 20:1 in recent weeks

Arkansas St +14.5 @ Nebraska  DE Rolland-Jones goes to town as Nebraska’s weak WR corp fails to get open in time

Vandy @ MTSU +3.5  Excellent WR corp wins against Mason’s very capable D.

Nevada @ Northwestern Under 61

College FB Stuff

Over/Unders.

There are some teams to focus on throughout this year.

The Good – OK St (9), Auburn (8.5), Miami FL(9)

AND

The Interesting – ASU (5), Kansas (3), Mich St (6.5), Miss St (5.5), Nebraska (7), Ole Miss (5.5), Oregon St (5.5)

Notice I am posting this after the season has already started for a few teams.  I am getting these numbers from a website entitled “Last Minute College Football Team Wins.”  This is me screaming at a bunch of horses starting out from the gate “WAIT! COME BACK! DO ANY OF YOU HAVE MEDICAL CONDITIONS?!?!”

The offenses for Oklahoma St and Auburn should be very good.  Auburn has Baylor transfer Stidham who many believe will be the difference maker to put Auburn back in the SEC Champ conversation.  Miami allowed just 18.5 points per game last season, and they may well be better in 2017…all 8 defenders who recorded at least six TFL and two sacks last season return.  Just one bet from this group.  Miami FL (over 9)

Did you know there is one team in college football that has had the worst passing D in the country two years in a row?  ASU should be in for a lot of shoot-outs, former 5Star QB Blake Barnett transfers in.  We are too late to bet on them but a 3 or 4 win season sounds believable, and we will bet accordingly ATS, lot of high scoring, non-covers like last night’s game.  I am sure things have improved since, but as of mid May ASU had ZERO recruit commitments for 2018.   This looks like a program with a bad trajectory.  Speaking of bad trajectories, everybody is getting arrested and/or suspended at Mich St. We will take Mich St (under 6.5)

Kansas @ 3 is insanely tempting.  Great DLine stuff, their new OC was co-OC @ TCU during their renaissance.  But I think ultimately we are just going to bet them on specific match-ups.  They lose a ton of talent in secondary.  Bill Connelly notes “massive turnover in the secondary is the strongest predictor of defensive regression.”  Nevertheless expect to see Kansas as a pick frequently ATS.

One of the horses I was screaming at is Oregon St, too late to do anything with them but expect them to get better as the year goes on.  The “upstart Beavers suddenly have depth at multiple positions” as RotoWorld points out.  They lost a bunch of close coin flip games last year, RB Nall could be a beast this year.  We will have bets with them moving forward.

Not much insight into Nebraska except they seem quite thin @ WR.  This was before Keyshawn Jr was busted for weed.  They had a very late decommit who wound up going to Wash St.  They also lose a very good, experienced corner Chris Jones due to surgery.  Nebraska (under 7)

Who the Hell knows what Ole Miss will do.  Shea Patterson should put up great numbers and I would lean towards their over, similar situation with Miss St.  Everything you read is positive.  New DC is a guy with consistent top20 Defenses in the past when @ Louisville and UGA.  A quote regarding their LB Green, “(Green) won’t just take a starting role because of his age, he’s earning it with his play.”  Good stuff.  Miss St (over 5.5)