Author: pat
Early Overs
Start of season Overs are scalding hot ATM. They have hit somewhere in the area of 2/3rds of the time, and then last night was just an over orgy. There appear to be a few exceptions that I can see…Mets, Rockies, White Sox, and Athletics really jump off the page as not joining in on the run-fun. For the next couple nights we are going to track (and most likely bet) the following…
TT Unders for NYM, COL, CWS and OAK
Gm Overs for everyone else
Let’s see how this plays out. Will update.
Easter Sinner
Jannik Sinner dominated the Miami Open over the last couple of weeks, an occurrence which has prompted me to look up Future Lines for the remaining 2024 Grand Slams. I have zero issues on most of the lines…Alcaraz and Djok are clear #1 and #2 respectively for the French, Nadal at #3 seems highly optimistic but who knows. Same at Wimbledon, where last year Alcaraz somewhat stunningly won his first grass tournament at Queens Club and then improbably followed that up with his first Wimbledon title. Alcaraz and Djok running 1A/1B there seems very justified…
But the US Open odds are where things seem super interesting. If you go back to early/mid January, the Future Odds were more or less this…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +150
Medvedev +800
Sinner +800
But lets move forward to a post-AO ’24 world…
Djok +125
Alcaraz +160
Sinner +350
Medvedev +700
Over the last few months, Jannik wins his first major (taking down Djok in the process) and destroys the field (incl Medvedev) in Miami. He compiles a record of 16-1 (all on hard-courts). His lone loss comes to Alcaraz in SFs @ Indian Wells, a match Vegas makes Sinner a slight favorite in…So if Sinner is strolling around beating Djok and Meddy, while being favored over Alcaraz, I think a smart move is to capitalize on the “line lag” going on with the US Open. Yes, Sinner has yet to win in New York…The furthest Sinner has gone @ US is QF 2022 (5-setter vs Alcaraz), and he gets bounced LY in another 5-setter vs Zverev in the Round of 16. But again, that is pre-AO Sinner…The dam has been breached. I believe at this exact moment Sinner is the best hard-court player on the planet. Sinner (+350) ’24 US Open Future is the recommendation. There is a chance we don’t see a hard-court number this high next to Sinner for quite some time.
MLB Over/Unders – A New Twist on an Old Theme
Normally in this space we would write about a half-dozen or so season-long Over/Under picks…friend of the program Van Tran suggested he and I do a snake-draft on these this year, so below I am going to record the results of that draft and add a few thoughts when they come to me. We automatically gave ourselves Overs on our respective teams, (Mets and LAD)…I had first pick.
PD #1 – SF Giants Over 84.5
VT #2 – O’s Over 90.5
VT #3 – Tigers Under 81.5
PD #4 – StL Under 84.5 I borderline despise myself for this pick, it is as anti-sharp as a pick can get. But that doesn’t mean it wont happen…the way I rationalize the selection is Vegas was going to get enough money placed on StL to win the division that this O/U had to be in this ballpark. In a very sick way I would have preferred taking this Under @ like 79 or something.
PD #5 – Padres Under 83.5
VT #6 – LAA Under 71.5
VT #7 – Marlins Under 77.5
PD #8 – Nationals Over 66.5
PD #9 – Pirates Over 76.5
VT #10 – ATL Over 101.5
VT #11 – Astros Over 92.5
PD #12 – TOR Under 87.5
PD #13 – A’s Over 57.5
VT #14 – CWS Under 61.5
VT #15 – TB Over 85.5
PD #16 – Red Sox Over 77.5 Eno Sarris from The Athletic is way higher on the potential for the Boston rotation than essentially anyone else Ive come across, and I usually trust what he thinks. Also Alex Cora is one of like 3-5 managers in baseball that I think makes a tangible positive difference to a teams performance and results.
PD #17 – NYY Under 92.5
VT #18 – Rockies Under 60.5
VT #19 – Reds Under 82.5
PD #20 – CHC Under 84.5
PD #21 – D’backs Over 84.5
VT #22 – TEX Over 88.5
VT #23 – Brewers Under 77.5 This is going to be a race to the finish-line in my opinion…All indications point to Milwaukee being way worse this year than in the recent past. How long can the players on the field keep the boat afloat as it is sinking towards the end of the season?
PD #24 – Philly Under 90.5
PD #25 – Cleve Under 80.5
VT #26 – KC Over 73.5 This and the Milwaukee line are why Vegas is evil. Everyone knows MIL will likely be worse, so Vegas drops a lead weight on their win total and asks, “How low are you willing to go?” KC has a young, fun team that is going to be better than last year. “You want to root for their Over this year? Well lets see them win EIGHTEEN MORE GAMES! HA!”
VT #27 – Seattle Over 87.5
PD #28 – Minn Over 86.5
PD #29 – NYM Over 81.5
VT #30 – LAD Over 103.5
MLB Over/Unders
Another year, another round of Regular Season Win Totals. We are a little over 48 hours out from first pitch in Queens, so these lines are essentially concrete. Now I missed the Dodgers and Padres because of their Korea adventure but Ill see if over the next couple days we can figure something out there. First things first, the numbers…as always, heavy juice noted…
Arizona D’backs – 84.5
Atlanta Braves – 101.5
Baltimore Orioles – 90.5
Boston Red Sox – 77.5
Chicago Cubs – 84.5
Chicago White Sox – 61.5
Cincinnati Reds – 82.5
Cleveland Guardians – 80.5
Colorado Rockies – 60.5
Detroit Tigers – 81.5
Houston Astros – 92.5
KC Royals – 73.5 (O -130)
LA Angels – 71.5
LA Dodgers –
Miami Marlins – 77.5 (U -130)
Milwaukee Brewers – 77.5
Minnesota Twins – 86.5
NY Mets – 81.5
NY Yankees – 92.5
Oakland A’s – 57.5 (O -130)
Philadelphia Phillies – 90.5
Pittsburgh Pirates – 76.5
SD Padres –
SF Giants – 84.5
Seattle Mariners – 87.5
St Louis Cards – 84.5
TB Rays – 85.5
Texas Rangers – 88.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 87.5
Washington Nationals – 66.5
How far we have come…in years past Vegas would pick out a very likely shitty team, boost up its win total by a tick and then throw (U -155) juice at you. But now only a handful of (-130s)…I can tell a lot of my action this year will be NC Central themed. Back in a day or 2 with the picks…
Over/Under # of Over/Under Picks (.5)
And the winner is under…I simply do not love anything this year. But Ill be around…
MLB Over/Unders
A positive year overall on these in ’22. The Yankees under pick was about as bad as it gets, but the AL Central stuff we played came through. Key to the rationale on the Central bets last year was the idea that the White Sox were being seemingly (some would say substantially) overvalued, especially relative to their division rivals. Heading into ’23, preliminary research overwhelmingly and repeatedly wants to lead us down a somewhat similar path. This time, it is the Dodgers looking vulnerable…Buehler out until very late, Lux the entire season. Do Tyler Anderson and Gonsolin have real chances of repeating LYs results? Signing JD Martinez as a DH? Chris Taylor’s ’22? JASON HEYWARD?? BUT, before we start chucking bets around, below, you can see 2 things on the NL West…the Dodgers Under has big juice, while simultaneously, most of their NL West mates have juice on their Over. In other words, folks seem very hip to this sitch.
It was largely assumed last year the CWS would ultimately control a division loaded with crappy franchises. Like LA this year, Chicago had flaws in ’22, but they were subtle enough to miss, or easily ignored given the accepted weakness of their division. The NL West is not giving us a similar narrative gift this Spring Training. The potential Dodger issues are relatively glaring, and teams like the Padres, Giants and D-backs are seen as capable of exploiting them. Indeed, the Dodgers Under may get action from us, but as a loose rule, its really difficult to like “loud” bets, and this is about as loud as these type of bets get. At any rate, we will see how the next few weeks shake-out. Ideally we will land on some plays that are quietly sitting in a corner with their head down. Here are where things stand…heavy juice noted.
ARIZ : 74.5 (O -150)
ATL : 95.5
BALT : 76.5 (O -150)
BOS : 77.5 (O -140)
CHC : 77.5 (O -140)
CWS : 83.5 (U -160)
CIN : 65.5
CLE : 86.5
COL : 65.5
DET : 69.5
HOU : 96.5
KC : 69.5
LAA : 81.5
LAD : 97.5 (U -145)
MIA : 75.5
MIL : 85.5
MINN : 83.5
NYM : 94.5
NYY : 94.5
OAK : 59.5
PHI : 89.5 (U -140)
PITT : 66.5
SD : 93.5 (O -140)
SEA : 87.5
SFG : 80.5 (O -140)
StL : 88.5
TB : 88.5
TEX : 82.5
TOR : 92.5
WAS : 59.5
The Bourne Identity
A Google program has potentially become sentient, causing some to fret over the future of humanity. Are computers becoming aware of themselves and the world around them? This morning I googled Premier League Standings.
Indeed, there is a chance that Google programs are so sentient that they have reached the consciousness level of Arsenal internet troll. If so, that’s a dystopian future I can get behind.
During this period, I generally stick to O/U season points or standings place finish, but those are not ready yet. There are a few points of interest until then. Chelsea and Tottenham are essentially even money to finish 3rd it looks like. Depending on the specific bet they actually flip who is favorite at times.
To Win League: Tott (+1200), Chelsea (+1600) – Tott fave
Winner w/out Man City or L’pool: Chelsea (+175), Tott (+185) – Chelsea fave
Top London Team: Chelsea (+115), Tott (+115) – Tie
Seems a little weird, potentially exploitable. The other interesting one for me involves top goalscorer longshots. Son, despite sharing this title with Salah is only (+1000). Vardy (+3000), though he turns 36 mid-season, scored 15 goals in only 25 games last year. And Mitrovic (+3500) has proven Premier League success and scored a trillion goals last year…Will Haaland (+350) win it? Wouldnt be surprising, but his value at this price isnt great, and the recent examples of Bundesliga imports are poor. Salah (+450) will be sitting during World Cup which helps but he is one of 4 Liverpool players in the top 12 on this odds sheet. If Jesus (+2500) could finish a sandwich he’d be very interesting.
Early Trends
Until further notice, I think it is worth blindly betting LA Dodgers team unders. The catchy tag-line following the Freeman signing went “Dodgers’ Best Line-Up Ever.” This team will certainly hit major grooves at points this year but they seem off at the moment. They needed a dropped fly ball on Sunday just to get multiple runs in Colorado, and only plated 2 runs the game previous. To be fair, Will Smith was out of the lineup for both those games and he’s no slap-hitter, but nevertheless, the team as a whole doesn’t appear locked-in offensively. Combine this with the media-generated expectation inflation, and ‘team total under’ becomes the play in the immediate future.
The same is going to be true for the time being in regards to D-backs team unders. No hit by SPs on back-to-back games to start the season…This team needs to prove itself offensively. Not impressed by 5 runs on Sunday in what turned out to be a BPen game and blowout.
MLB Win Totals
If you listen to 3 consecutive podcasts about a team, I congratulate you if your mental estimations of them and their players dont sky-rocket. A podcaster innocently trying to drum-up some excitement for their next episode will have you thinking, “Well sure that guy has hit a combined .199 the last 2 seasons, but if…” A random team reporter will have you excited for a pitcher that was an all-star a half decade ago. If you can listen to back-to-back spring training podcasts of a team without thinking, “Has any team ever gone 162-0 before?” “Will their games count as wins if the other team isnt able to record an out?” then kudos, kudos to you. Lets see what we like.
Yankees – (U 92.5) -122
First of all, this is just a fun bet. But to the rationale…a lot of this would seem to ride on the health and production of Severino and Cole. When 100%, Severino is full-on legit, but he has only been able to throw something like 18-19 total IPs since the end of 2019. Expecting Cole to replicate his numbers from 3-4 years ago is fool’s gold imo. From late last year: “Cole’s stuff and velocity mostly looked fine, but his command was off as it had been on occasion down the stretch of the regular season – 5.13 ERA in Sept” Cole will not be well-served if the sticky stuff police are again on duty this year. I dont think the Yankees, as an organization, have the pitching depth this year to adequately deal with Severino living on IL while Cole is getting sporadically lit-up. Cashman, I believe, fully realized his situation early in the off-season, which is why he throws a huge offer to Verlander. To compound difficulties, this is a team that under-delivered last year offensively. They ranked 13th in combined OPS (.729) and 19th in runs scored despite relatively healthy years for Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, and can you honestly count on that happening again? Would you really trust Hicks to get 300 plate appearances this year or to do anything productive with them if he did? Was going from Rizzo to Voit really just an expensive lateral move? In other words, this is an offense that cannot be counted on to cover the sins of a less than stellar pitching staff. The Yankees would have done well to add one more big arm to deal with the bats in Toronto and Boston, and they didn’t.
Cleveland – (O 76.5) -114
The AL Central is, imo, the most interesting division in baseball this year. This is when baseball really misses old-school divisional races. Imagine how great last year would have been with San Fran and LAD going to the end. At any rate, I personally think this Cleveland number is artificially low because a lot of bettors are going to be hot on the White Sox and Tigers. This is understandable, but those teams certainly are not without flaws. CWS lose Rodon to free agency this off-season and Lance Lynn goes down injured late in spring training, “the same knee that gave Lynn trouble during the second half of the 2021 season.” The Tigers look solid, but are still relying on elder statesman Miguel Cabrera as their primary DH entering the season, not to mention an infant @ 1B. I wound up taking 4 combined team win total over/unders last year and Cleveland under would have been my 5th. There were quotes and reports coming out constantly about the team struggling financially from pandemic stuff; the organization had the vibe of what Oakland is this year. But now things seem to be looking up. Bieber is back. Jose Ramirez is signing extensions. Civale, Plesac, Quantrill and McKenzie are young, fun guns. Emmanuel Clase may be the best closer in baseball already. They are no longer passive-aggressively demeaning a race of humans. Big X-factor(s) for this team? Rosario and Gimenez.
Mariners – (O 84.5) -115
As many of these bets go, this is more an indictment of the teams around them. Oakland and Texas are essentially after-thoughts…Houston has to be weaker. Who the Hell knows what the Angels do. This is a Mariner team way more likely to win 92 games than 75 games imo. So we will take the over.
I wish I had more but thats all for now…
EDIT:
Saying “thats all for now” when gambling…like being at a beer festival and saying “Im all set for the evening” an hour before it ends. Stop it, no one believes you, its sad. We sneak in a last minute under on the aforementioned White Sox. The Lance Lynn injury alone is almost enough in my mind to validate this pick. Not only does that push Keuchel into the #3 role, it may ultimately force Vince Velazquez into the rotation which will almost undoubtedly fail. Lynn inj gets coupled late with a Yoan Moncada IL designation also. Oblique strains can linger, and just think about this infield when Moncada is out. Abreu is now firmly in his mid-30s, as is Josh Harrison @ 2B. Tim Anderson is a stud but he is almost certainly not improving this year. You are getting the same numbers out of him or worse. And then @ 3rd…Burger? Hasnt done anything yet. Leury Garcia? He hit 5 HRs last yr in 126 games. Andrew Vaughn? He hit .235 last year. Add to these points one I made earlier. This division, I believe, will be intriguing and competitive. It would be no surprise to me at all if the winner of this division comes in at a sub-90 win total. I believe the moves made by the Twins, the young talent coming up with the Royals, the potential renaissance happening in Detroit, and Cleveland not going bankrupt ultimately translates to parity. The White Sox probably still have the best overall roster, but the gap is not where you thought it might have been at this point a year or 2 ago. So related to that, I also have action on non-White Sox division winner (+150). We will see how things go.
MLB Over/Unders
It is a return to old-times, as team O/Us are back to total wins, as opposed to winning %. We wind up going 3-1 with these last year, with Philadelphia going to the last weekend. We did well taking the Nationals under and Tigers over, but the Phillies W was fortunate. Shout-outs to Bryce Harper and Ranger Suarez, I owe you both a Yuengling. Here are the totals for 2022, we will make our picks a few days before Opening Day.
Arizona – 66.5
Atlanta – 91.5
Baltimore – 62.5
Boston – 85.5
CHC – 75.5
CWS – 91.5
Cincinnati – 74.5
Cleveland – 76.5
Colorado – 68.5
Detroit – 76.5
Houston – 91.5
Kansas City – 75.5
LAA – 84.5
LAD – 97.5
Miami – 76.5
Milwaukee – 90.5
Minnesota – 81.5
NYM – 90.5
NYY – 92.5
Oakland – 70.5
Philadelphia – 85.5
Pittsburgh – 65.5
San Diego – 89.5
SFG – 84.5
Seattle – 84.5
StL – 84.5
Tampa Bay – 88.5
Texas – 73.5
Toronto – 91.5
Washington – 71.5
