Author: Nick
NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks
Eastern Conference
(2) Celtics vs (3) 76ers
On his latest podcast, Bill Simmons tried to say this was the biggest/longest-running rivalry in the NBA, and specifically called it out as bigger than Celtics/Lakers. That may (or may not) be true for Celtics fans, but it’s definitely not true for neutrals like me. I don’t give a shit about the Celtics playing the Sixers. But when the Celtics & Lakers play, I start wearing green a lot more.
Anyway, on to the pick. On paper, this should be the Celtics for sure. Two things going for the 76ers: First, they have (probably) the best player in the series in Joel Embiid. He hasn’t really done it in the playoffs yet, but past performance is not a predictor of future success. If he plays like Joel EMVPiid, the Sixers have a real chance. Second, the Celtics don’t always show up. If the Hawks can beat them twice in 6 games, the Sixers should be able to do at least one better. I’ll say Celtics in 7, but almost any result wouldn’t surprise me.
(5) Knicks vs (8) Heat
Is it the late 90s/early 2000s again? I’m sick of these reboots. I’ll say Knicks in 7, but again I don’t feel very confident.
Western Conference
(1) Nuggets vs (4) Suns
Full disclosure: I’m a Suns fan, and I can’t be fully objective on them from here on out. With that said, I’ll do my best to keep things realistic. These teams met in the second round two years ago, but a lot has changed:
- Jamal Murray is healthy
- Kevin Durant is on the Suns
- All of the Suns’ forwards from 2021 are gone
- Chris Paul is way worse now
You’ll notice that 3 of those 4 are good for the Nuggets or bad for the Suns, so I’m not expecting another sweep. But I do like their chances. If 2021 Playoffs DeAndre Ayton shows up, he does about the best job on Jokic in the league without getting help. Which means Jokic will still put up massive numbers, but 1.) will have to work for them, and 2.) won’t be able to set up his teammates nearly as well. On the other end, I think the Suns have the personnel to heavily exploit Jokic’s defensive liabilities. I think it’ll be a really fun series, and I’ll say Suns in 6.
(3) Kings vs (7) Lakers OR (6) Warriors vs (7) Lakers
If I’m able, I’ll come back and edit this section once we know who’s playing.
NBA Playoffs Round 1 Recap
First, a recap of my picks from last round. Bold means I consider it a win.
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
My pick: Suns in 5 or 6
Actual: Suns in 5
Analysis: I think I was spot on on this. I also think Kawhi staying healthy would’ve mean the Suns winning in 6 instead of 5. Why? Because there are no independent outcomes in sports. Westbrook couldn’t have played as well as he did without having so many opportunities with the ball in his hands.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
My pick: Nuggets in 4 or 5
Actual: Nuggets in 5
Analysis: Again, pretty spot on here. I don’t like this T-Wolves team at all, but at least they didn’t get swept.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
My pick: N/A
Actual: Lakers in 6
Analysis: I got to celebrate the Grizzlies running their mouths before getting absolutely punked out. Good times!
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
My pick: N/A
Actual: TBD
Bonus pick for game 7: LIGHT THE BEAM
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
My pick: Bucks in 4, 5, or 6
Actual: Heat in 5
Analysis: Way off! Obviously I didn’t foresee Giannis getting hurt, but even considering the injury, I’m still surprised they lost in 5. Credit to Miami on this one. Side note of whining: Where the hell was that 10-23 free throw performance in the Finals 2 years ago?!?
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
My pick: Celtics in 4 or 5
Actual: Celtics in 6
Analysis: I got the winner right, but the Hawks’ 2nd win suprised me. I was at Game 1 of this series, and it was one of the biggest disparities I’ve ever seen in person. Like I said in my preview, this Celtics team is way too inconsistent. On paper, they should be a heavy title favorite with the Bucks out, but I don’t fully believe in them.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
My pick: 76ers in 5
Actual: 76ers in 4
Analysis: Off by 1 game, but no surprises here.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
My pick: Go Knicks!
Actual: Go Knicks!
NBA Playoffs
I can’t be bothered to bet any of these, but I wanted to get my thoughts and picks on the record, so we can see how terrible they wind up after the fact. I did make a good-faith attempt to look up the series odds, but couldn’t easily find them without signing up for a bunch of BS. Anyway, here we go:
Western Conference
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
This is the series I am the best informed about, since I’ve watched most of the Suns games post-KD trade. First, my general thoughts on the Suns: This Suns team definitely has flaws, but they also have some significant strengths. I’ll take their “best game” over anyone’s except Milwaukee. With that said, +480 odds for the title are too short IMO. If you could guarantee me they have no injuries in the playoffs, I might like those odds. But both Durant and Paul are high-risk in that area, and Booker has a history of lingering hamstring injuries – including in last year’s playoffs.
Injuries aside, the Suns are good enough to beat anyone, but not so good that any series should be considered a lock. I think they dodged a serious bullet with Playoff P being out for the whole first round. Zubac has consistently matched up very well with Ayton, even when Ayton’s playing well. And Ty Lue tends to get the better of the coaching matchups. With Paul George, I’d consider this series a toss-up. Without him, the pick is Suns in 5 or 6.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
I’m one of the skeptics who won’t believe in this Nuggets team till they prove me wrong, but it’s hard fto imagine them losing to any of the Pelicans/T-Wolves/Thunder. So my pick is Nuggets in 4 or 5.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
No pick here – this is a complete toss-up for me depending on which Grizzlies team shows up AND which Lakers team shows up. I don’t particularly like this Grizzlies team, but I’m also a certified Laker Hater, so either way, I get to celebrate someone losing.
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
I can’t make a pick here, either, but I’m going to try to watch most of these games. The Kings looked legitimately very good this year, but it’s hard to go against the defending champs just as they’re getting the band back together. Very curious to see how this plays out, and I’ll be rooting for the Kings in solidarity.
Eastern Conference
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
I don’t think the opponent matters here; this is a Bucks win all the way. I could see the Bucks getting bored and dropping a game or 2, so I wouldn’t bet the sweep. But even if Giannis gets hurt in Game 1, I still think the Bucks advance. Bucks in 4, 5, or 6.
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
The Celtics are way too inconsistent for a team this good, and I worry about Tatum’s decision making in crunch time. (Last year, he sometimes looked more concerned with trying to force a Jordan/Kobe hero-ball highlight than just getting a good shot. Not sure if that’s something he’s gotten better at.) But it would be a shock if this mid Hawks team got to 3 wins. Celtics in 4 or 5.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
This is another series I’ll try to watch most of – I’ll be rooting for my boys Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson (aka The Twins). Still love them both, and wish them the best. But do they have a chance against one of the championship contenders? On paper I’d say no, but there’s always the possibility of Harden doing a full-on flameout. I’ll say 76ers in 5, but more of a guess than a pick.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
Go Knicks! I haven’t watch a single game from either team all year, so I can’t pretend to know anything about this series.
Nick’s Over/Unders
I was going to do a “control” pick – kind of like when they have an animal pick games against the expert, or when Bill Simmons picked NFL games against his wife – because my interest in/knowledge of baseball is at an all-time low, and I didn’t know much about it even back when I cared. So I thought it might be interesting to compare my know-nothing/random picks to two guys who actually follow MLB. But then I realized that even staring at a list of team over/unders for 10 minutes and pretending to have any opinion would be way more time and attention than I’m willing to commit to baseball. So in lieu of that, I present my Canadian Football League over/unders!
All lines were made up by me, because no one has posted any CFL over/unders, and I doubt anyone ever will. But Bodoga does have 2012 Grey Cup odds currently posted, and the win totals I made up do roughly follow those odds posted at Bodoga, so they should be pretty fair. And even if they’re not, I don’t know anything about how good or bad any team is, so I’m still shooting blind. I’m assuming that CFL teams play an 18-game regular season schedule (Roger Goodell is SO HARD RIGHT NOW) based on the fact that I looked at Montreal’s schedule this year and counted up 18 regular-season games and 2 exhibitions. As an added handicap, my confidence points only go up to 8, because there are only 8 teams. If I still manage to beat either Pat or Lou, he should be very ashamed.
Before I begin, I should point out that my extensive research process turned up an interesting fact: Last year was the first time ever that every CFL team was under the salary cap. Good to know. Anyway, here goes:
8. Saskatchewan UNDER 6.5
Saskatchewan, besides being hard to type, is the biggest longshot to win the Grey Cup at 9/1. They’re also the most remote team, hailing from some God-forsaken place in the middle of nowhere. They might not even be in a province for all I know. We know about the dangers of a West Coast team travelling East in the NFL, but this should be worse: A North Pole team travelling South. And probably East most of the time, too. Add in the fact that ever since Ottawa folded, Saskatchewan are the only Roughriders left in the league, and I say they go under. This is my Lock Of The Week!
7. Montreal OVER 9.5
I like their city, I like their team name (Alouettes), and their jersey is so heinous that it has to distract the other team. Plus they have a unique homefield advantage in that the visiting team is so worn out from the strip clubs and hookers that they can’t give 100%. Plus their QB was the subject of a good article on Grantland. This is my Shoe-in Of The Week!
6. Hamilton OVER 11
They are the 4/1 favorite to win the Grey Cup, and their name is the Tiger-Cats. Not the Tigers, mind you, the Tiger-Cats. I’m not sure if this is just Canadians being over-specific, or if they’re talking about some bizarre mad science-style housecat/tiger hybrid. I guess the idea behind that would be something that looks mostly like a tiger, but is smaller and capable of being domesticated, so that it doesn’t maul you during your magic act? Anyway, I like the over.
5. BC UNDER 10
Even when it doesn’t stand for Boston College, BC still sucks.
4. Toronto UNDER 8
I’m assuming the Argos have the same problem as the Leafs – ownership knows they don’t need to put together a competitive team because the fan base is so rabid no matter what. Plus I don’t like the fact that they gave away a home game to Buffalo.
3. Calgary OVER 9.5
Calgary is home to Bret “The Hitman” Hart and the biggest rodeo in North America, and that’s good enough for me.
2. Winnipeg OVER 9
Winnipeg’s team is called the Blue Bombers, which was also a nickname for Mega Man back in the 90s. I played a lot of Mega Man video games back then, so I’m taking the over.
1. Edmonton UNDER 7
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll notice that the win totals I made up add up to 70.5, which is 1.5 less than the total wins available. (You’ll also notice that some of your life choices have been highly questionable.) Given that, it seems like I should’ve picked more overs than unders, but let’s face it, I don’t really care. Nor do I care to find out anything real about Edmonton or its team, so here’s something I just made up: The Eskimos’ stadium is large enough to fit the entire population of Edmonton. Sadly, this makes it the smallest stadium in the league, with a capacity of just 3,500. With very little crowd noise, look for Edmonton to suffer at home. Take the under, then sit back and pop the bubbly.
