NFC

South
New Orleans Saints 10 (Over +105, Under -125)
Atlanta Falcons 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5
Carolina Panthers 4.5

North
Green Bay Packers 11.5
Chicago Bears 9.5
Detroit Lions 7.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Minnesota Vikings6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Giants 9.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Dallas Cowboys 9 (Over flat, Under -120)
Philadelphia Eagles 10 (Over -120, Under flat)
Washington Redskins 6.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

West
Seattle Seahawks 7 (Over flat, Under -120)
St. Louis Rams 7 (Over -120, Under flat)
San Francisco 49ers 8 (Over -120, Under flat)
Arizona Cardinals 6 (Over -120, Under flat)

AFC

South
Indianapolis Colts 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
Houston Texans 8 (Over -115, Under -105)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6
Tennessee Titans 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

North
Pittsburgh Steelers 11 (Over flat, Under -120)
Baltimore Ravens 11
Cleveland Browns 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals 7.5 (Over -120, Under flat)

East
New York Jets 10 (Over flat, Under -120)
New England Patriots 11.5 (Over flat, Under -120)
Buffalo Bills 5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Miami Dolphins 8 (Over -105, Under -115)

West
Denver Broncos 6 (Over flat, Under -120)
San Diego Chargers 10
Oakland Raiders 7
Kansas City Chiefs 8 (Over flat, Under -120)

Early leans: Atlanta, NY Giants, Bungles UNDER Jacksonville, Arizona OVER. Arizona is contingent on them getting an actual living breathing QB upon which the line would revise upwards at least one win so I’d be comfortable making a small bet now. The do get six games versus the NFC West. Atlanta opens @CHI, PHI, @TB @SEA, GB after which they’ll be doing extremely well to be 3-2. No idea how this team is supposed to win 11 games.

Divisions: New Orleans EVEN, Rams +245, Oakland +425. The Niners are somehow a -125 favorite to win the NFC West over on Bookmaker. I’d like to be the house on that as they look to be the same mediocre team as the last couple of seasons. The Rams are a receiver and a safety away from being the division favorite. Be careful with the Ram and Lion OVERS (7 & 7.5). Depth is always an issue in the NFL and health is a skill. Some 15% of a team’s roster will end up on IR before the season ends and while there’s some luck involved in which players end up hurt, teams with depth like the Packers and Patriots are much better suited to deal with the inevitable injuries which is a partial reason for their league high totals. Given some of the players St. Louis and Detroit were trotting out on the field last year, I’m skeptical they’ll be able to build enough sustained depth. The overs or division bets aren’t necessarily poor bets, but they are riskier.

Lastly, Eli Manning needs to prep for plays like the one embedded below since the Giants cut three offensive linemen yesterday. Not sure who they are going to bring in, but they should hope to play better than this:

For example, tonight’s Pirates/Braves line is as follows:

Braves (Jurrjens) -120
Pirates (Morton) +113

The Run Line (or handicap or spread) is:
Braves -1.5 +146
Pirates +1.5 -158

Lastly, the Reverse (or Alternate) Run Line is:
Braves +1.5 -290
Pirates -1.5 +256

The two non-degenerate reasons for using the reverse run line are as follows:

1) Suspected (or known) injury to a starting pitcher

Phil Hughes is the classic and most recent example here. After all of the reports of Hughes’ velocity being down as well as being crushed by the Tigers in his first start, assuming you wanted to bet against Hughes in his next start, you may as well use the reverse run line (assuming the Yankees were still favored with him starting) as you can receive a much larger return. We are assuming here that an injured pitcher is much less likely to keep a game competitive and as such, the likelihood of a one-run game is diminished.

Of course, should you know for certain that said pitcher is injured and starting anyway (Hughes is probbably the closest one can get without legitimate inside knowledge) this is certainly the way to go.

A lesser version of this system would use this to bet against pitchers with inordinately high pitch counts in their previous start(s) again assuming those pitchers were still favored overall. There doesn’t seem to be much sense in laying lots of juice for a team to not lose by 2+ runs and in any case, there’s approximately zero money to be made betting on large favorites in MLB.

2) Overly favorable matchups

At the start of the year, Justin Masterson and Alexei Ogando for Cleveland and Texas respectively were considered good swingmen with established strengths and weaknesses that would likely get exposed as a regular starter. When given a particularly favorable matchup, pitchers such as these can be a good play sometimes as significant underdogs. This can also extend to pitchers back from injury, or recently called up from the minors. There’s little to no reason however, that making a game a play under the normal moneyline should by default extend to taking a game at a reverse run line instead.

Roughly 30% of MLB games are decided by one run so that’s the primary reason to not use these. Of those 30% of games, roughly 40% go to the underdog and 60% break to the favorite. Since there aren’t any of these that offer +1.5 +2xx, most people will be best served by leaving these alone minus the Hughes-like exceptions.

The following discussion took place between the befuddled Royals announcers:

Announcer 1: What are the odds in Vegas that this game would still be going?
Announcer 2: There were 2 outs in the inning. I’m still trying to wrap my head around it.

By just taking a quick glance at the Win Probability Graph, I’d argue it was probably off the board. No one would even bother betting on something like this. But with 2,500 games a season, at least a team or two will convert on a 1000/1 chance throughout the season. We shouldn’t be surprised by this because weird and unlikely things happen in baseball all the time, but we are and can’t process such unlikely outcomes.

As anyone who has gambled for a non-trivial length of time can attest, these streaks can last for days or weeks at a time. Here’s a lengthy Royals example from 2000

The Royals began the 2000 season with a respectable 4-3 record, and then things got crazy. In the last game of a four-game set with the Twins, the Royals held a 5-3 lead going into the ninth. This was back in the days when the Royals thought that closers were born, not made, and so they had paid real U.S. legal tender to Ricky Bottalico to be their closer. On this day, naturally, Bottalico blew the two-run lead in the ninth. (The Royals learned their lesson so well that after the season, they made Roberto Hernandez the focal point of the trade return they got for Johnny Damon.)

But then something funny happened. Damon led off the bottom of the ninth with a home run, and the Royals won, 6-5. The next night, the Orioles came to town; the Royals erased a 5-2 lead with three runs in the eighth, and after both teams struggled to score a putaway run, the Royals finally broke through in the bottom of the 12th, when with one out and Joe Randa on first base, backup catcher Brian Johnson went deep.

And then the next night, the Orioles held a 6-0 lead going into the bottom of the seventh, when the Royals broke through for four runs. The score remained 6-4 until the bottom of the ninth, when Gregg Zaun walked, Mark Quinn doubled to put two runners in scoring position…and Rey Sanchez lofted a flyball that snuck inside the fair pole in left field, prompting Denny Mathews to semi-famously exclaim “What is going on?” The Royals had won three straight games on a walk-off homer. In fact, these three games – I’m not making this up – are what brought the phrase “walk-off” into the national baseball lexicon. The term had been around for years – Dennis Eckersley originated it, I believe, calling it “a walk-off piece” when Kirk Gibson hit a particular home run off of him – but after these three games, ESPN.com started using the term to describe what the Royals had done, and the term has been with us ever since.

The next night, after Bottalico blew another save in the ninth, the Royals didn’t end it with a homer. No, with two out and one on in the bottom of the inning, Carlos Beltran ended the game with a lousy single. Four straight walk-off wins, three on a homer, and the Royals were 8-3 and tied for first place. They were the talk of baseball as they headed out on a nine-game road trip.

They lost all nine games.

In Monday’s Championship game, Butler had their worst scoring game since 2004 and the worst 2 point shooting percentage of any team in all of D1 for a game this season (via Ken Pomeroy). It’s unlucky for Butler that this happened with millions of people watching as opposed to away to Cleveland St., and it’s unlucky for it to happen to any one team in particular. With enough games, these vagaries balance themselves out to a degree which is what led Billy Beane to utter his semi-famous quip about the baseball playoffs being a crapshoot. Unlikely things will happen in any given game, and outside of a player or team’s baseline skill level, we’re powerless to do much about it.

This is what’s led me into futures becoming far and away the highest proportion of my gambling action. Assuming you don’t have any inside information, you’re usually looking at extremely small edges also assuming you’re on the right side of the game to begin with. With futures, the odds can be extremely favorable, moreso than any other gambling opportunity available.

The only reason the Red Sox losing four in a row is particularly notable is that it’s happened in the first four games of the season. Just like Butler, with lots of eyes and no where to hide, everything looks worse than it probably is in reality. Even if that reality involves scoring seven runs in five games. Over the next couple of days or weeks, I’ll be looking for opportunities to gamble on players or teams that are under/overperforming to start the season. It’s still a little too early to see any lines move very much, and it’s way too early to start grading our futures bets.

That said, Go Astros?

4) San Francisco Giants (Over 88)

A full season from Brandon Belt and Buster Posey should help this offense be the best the Giants have had since Barry Bonds retired.  There’s some risk here with the starting pitching as the Giants have little depth beyond their initial five and would be best served by limiting Madison Bumgarner’s innings as he’s probably the highest risk of the bunch.   92 wins + a championship and their total is only 88?  Not sure what I’m missing as unlike past editions, there’s no gaping hole/ overly washed up veteran anywhere in the lineup.  Maybe Miguel Tejada.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks (Over 72.5)

Arizona’s bullpen was historically bad in 2010.

In 439 innings, they allowed 307 runs to score, 280 of which were earned. That comes out to a 5.74 ERA, over a full run more than the next worst team (the Cubs, 4.72). On top of that, the Diamondbacks also allowed 78 of 189 inherited runners to score, a 41% mark which ties the Dodgers for the worst in the Majors.

Assuming the bullpen improves (and by definition it has to), the only risk for under 73 here is health.  Justin Upton, Kennedy and Hudson all need to stay on the field.  The lineup should score enough runs to keep them competitive, if not all the way back flirting with .500.

2) Boston Red Sox (Over 95)

See what Pat wrote.  A full season of Pedroia, Gonzalez and Crawford will really help the offense.  While it might not appear so at the end of the year because they play in the East, Boston may have the best pitching staff in the league this year.

1) Seattle Mariners (Over 70)

Their offense was as bad as Arizona’s bullpen last year.  While it won’t be good, it should rebound to below-average and combined with Felix + some other pitchers that will hopefully get them back into the 70s.  I don’t really want to forecast a 10-win improvement. but that’s why it’s a one point play.

10)  Philadelphia Phillies (under 97)

Thank you Ruben Amaro!  You not only splashed out on a kickass free agent but also managed to build the oldest team in the majors, ensuring any gains will likely be washed away by steady decline throughout the lineup and the loss of Jason Werth.  Dom Brown is the only projected starter under 29 and I wonder if he’ll have anyone to hang out with on the team.  He also broke his hand.  The Phillies won 97 last year with Rollins the only significant regular to underperform.  They’ve already lost arguably MLB’s Most Irreplaceable Player for half the season and some books have adjusted their lines down as low as 95.

9)  Tampa Bay Rays (Over 84.5)

Last season Tampa won 96 games.  Pena, Bartlett, Crawford, Garza and the bullpen are all gone.  In for them are Dan Johnson, Brignac, Manny/Damon/Jennings,  Hellickson and a new bullpen.  I’ll posit that Johnson can adequately replace Pena and his .196 average but close to league average play, Brignac can come close to Bartlett’s production and that Hellickson can provide 3/4 of Garza’s league average innings.  This leaves a roughly a 10 win dropoff from Crawford and the bullpen and I just can’t see it.  Both were beyond excellent in 2010, but the either the replacements and/or the returnees would have to really stink it up to drop that many games.

8) Houston Astros (Under 71.5)

This team is terrible and it won’t even be worth the effort to play their veterans over the younger players in September in hopes of eeking out a few extra meaningless wins and miracle covering the over like they’ve done the past few years.  It’s irrelevant anyway as Hunter Pence is the only solidly above average player on the team and they have approximately zero advanced prospects.  I’d also like to take the Astros for fewest wins in MLB this season if that’s available someplace.  Carlos Zambrano is a better career hitter than both of Houston’s catchers.  Interleague:  Texas (6), Boston, Toronto, Tampa (3).

7) Anaheim L.A. Angels (Under 83)

Why does Mike Scioscia hate all catchers who hit better than he did???  The Angels did nothing productive this offseason, missing out on Carl Crawford, who was born to play for this team, and Adrian Beltre who signed with Texas.  They also traded away sometimes catcher Mike Napoli for another center fielder, despite not having anyone at catcher who can actually hit.  Napoli somehow ended up in Texas as well, so the AL west will have one team with an actual functioning offense.  Despite my snarkiness, the offense is not terrible (though not helped by Kendry with an ‘S’ starting on the DL) and should the starting pitching go without too many injuries and the bullpen turn in an effective season, this over will ship.  That’s a lot to ask of a team with little pitching depth to call upon IMHO.

6) Milwaukee Brewers (Under 85.5)

For a team that’s purportedly contending, even in the NL Central, they have a long way to go.  The Brewers only won 76 games last season and while they added Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum, both of whom are very good, they also had to take Yuniesky Betancourt to play shortstop, who is not.  Greinke is starting the season on the DL and should things not go well, Prince Fielder is a free agent to be who is not re-signing in Milwaukee and could be traded.  2b Rickie Weeks played 160 games last year in a contract season, after playing in 95, 118, 127 and 39 the last four seasons making JD Drew look durable in comparison.  I’ll take under 130 games played please.  Lastly, the interleague schedule is brutal: Twins (6) Yankees, Red Sox, Tampa (3).

Tiger Woods to Win a Major in 2011

From last weekend’s tournament

Rookie Brendan Steele couldn’t believe what he saw from one of golf’s all-time greats in his first tournament of the year on Sunday. He basically saw Woods, still winless since his infamous Thanksgiving car crash and ensuing public divorce, quit on the course.

“I don’t think he gave it everything today,” Steele told Sports Illustrated following the round at the Farmers Insurance Open. “Once it started going in the wrong direction, I don’t think it had his full attention.”

It just goes to show how far the world’s former No. 1 has fallen.Tiger never used to concede a shot, let alone give up on a back nine or an entire round. And he almost certainly would have never been called out by a rookie several years ago.

The thought of Woods alone used to send rookies cowering back to the clubhouse. His presence would make them wilt.

Now, Tiger’s competition has improved drastically and the once unbeatable aura that surrounded him has vanished. Players are no longer afraid of him on the course and apparently they’re willing to attack him off it as well.

As best I can tell, Tiger has won 14 Majors in 52 appearances starting with his first in at Augusta in 1997. That’s just over 25%. At -127, Pinnacle is basically installing Tiger as +630 on each major. As of right now that’s insane, or at least it would be for any other golfer not named Tiger Woods.

Phil Mickelson is the favorite to win this week’s Phoenix Open at +750 and I can’t imagine that the field in a Major is appreciably easier, nor that Tiger will be playing appreciably better than 90+% of the field in one anytime soon. His scoring average of over 71 since returning to golf in 2010 compares favorably with the likes of Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia and YE Yang. For any of them to receive less than +2500 to win a tournament, regardless of form would be ridiculous.

There was talk on PTI last week over Tiger’s slump and its causes, whether they were more mental or physical. Whatever the cause, there’s been no suggestion of “Old Tiger” returning as yet. The most likely scenario has him back as excellent but not Barry Bonds on steroids at some point and even with that, there’s still value here. Max bet on NO, -1whatever.

The Chargers are only one game back, and of course they still have a home game left against the Chiefs.

If the Chargers win that game, not only do they make up the difference in the standings, they would take the lead in tiebreakers. The teams would finish even head-to-head, but a loss to the Chargers would mean that the best record the Chiefs could finish with in-division is 3-3.

The Chargers would have two wins in the division, meaning they’d only need to beat either Oakland or Denver to win the tiebreaker. That’s because, even if the Chiefs and Chargers both finish with the same in-divison record, the Chargers will almost certainly win the third tiebreaker, which is a team’s record in common games.

The Chiefs and Chargers share 14 of the 16 games on their schedule; the only two games which are not shared are Buffalo and Cleveland (for the Chiefs) and New England and Cincinnati (for the Chargers). The Chiefs were 2-0 in non-common games; the Chargers lost to New England already and haven’t played the Bengals yet. If both teams finish, say, 10-6 overall, then the Chiefs would be 8-6 in common games; the Chargers would be at least 9-5, and would win the division.

The implications of all this:

1) There’s no way to over-state the importance of the Chiefs-Chargers game in San Diego in two weeks. For the Chargers, it’s really a must-win game – if they lose that game, they’ll be two games back and lose a tiebreaker. If the Chiefs win that game, they are guaranteed to finish ahead of San Diego in the standings if they finish 10-6. If the Chiefs beat San Diego, not only are they guaranteed to win the division if they finish 11-5, but their guaranteed to win the division if they finish 10-6 unless Oakland wins their last five games.

If the Chiefs lose to San Diego, they lose control of their destiny. If they lose to the Chargers, then even if the Chiefs win their other four games, they have to hope San Diego loses somewhere else along the way.

In short: the Chiefs are more likely to win the division with a 10-6 record and a victory in San Diego, than with an 11-5 record and a loss in San Diego.

This jives with all of the playoff odds reports I’ve seen. It also makes sense intuitively. The Chargers are clearly the better team but are one game behind. Assuming both teams win this weekend, it creates an optimal hedging opportunity in week 14 when the Chiefs travel to Kansas City. Given that it will be extremely difficult for the loser of that game to win the division, I can bet the Chargers moneyline with confidence and lock in a profit regardless of the result. We’ll go over those options in detail next week.

Pat & I also have our confidence pools for season wins. 5 points for the first team on the list decreasing to 1 for the last. Our picks were as follows:

Pat

Oakland OVER 6
San Francisco OVER 8.5
San Diego UNDER 11
Tennessee OVER 8
NY Giants OVER 8.5

Lou

Dallas UNDER 10
Baltimore OVER 10
Houston UNDER 8
SD UNDER 11
Cincinnati UNDER 8

After a rough first month, Pat’s picks are looking a lot better though I’m helped enormously by the fact the Dallas was kind enough to hit their under by week 8 or so. One way to see where we stand is by how many wins or losses are required by each team for us to hit our respective numbers. I have already hit on Dallas and Cincinnati, but every other bet is still alive. These are all with 5 games to play with the exception of Houston who lost last night.

Pat
Oakland 2 wins (1 to push)
San Francisco (5 wins)
San Diego 1 loss (0 to push)
Tennessee 4 wins (3 to push)
NY Giants 2 wins

Lou
Dallas 0 losses
Baltimore 3 wins (2 to push)
Houston 2 losses (1 to push, from 4 games)
San Diego 1 loss (0 to push)
Cincinnati 0 losses

If San Francisco and Houston win some games in December, this will become much closer again. Of course, Pat will crush me in baseball wins again in the spring and the cycle will likely continue.

Some other notes:

- We’ve now found the level of quarterback at which the Texans defense becomes NFL level calibre. That level is called Rusty Smith.

- Is Matt Lineart really a worse QB than the collection of guys Arizona has been trotting out all season?

- Packers/Falcons was the best game I’ve seen all season.

- Week 13 lines are up. Who is the 3-team teaser this week?

Lastly, some Grey Cup highlights from a video recording on some Canadian dude’s TV. Sounds about right.

The offense however, is offensive. They’ve yet to score 30 points in a game this season and are still near the bottom of the league in short yardage, an improvement over ranking 32nd in 2009. Cutler and the skill players are not bad, but obviously their line is atrocious and is preventing the Bears from being a Super Bowl contender.

Similar to college basketball, road records can often tell you a lot about the actual quality of a team. Beating teams at home isn’t particularly indicative of a good team. Teams with poor home records, however, are almost never good. Only six teams have recorded four or more road wins this season: Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa and Chicago. The first three are among the best in the league, Miami has been horribly unlucky and I’ll cover Tampa in a later post. Looking at the Bears road wins, they’ve beaten two teams without an NFL caliber QB (Carolina and Miami), the 2-8 Bills and the 3-7 Cowboys. Sorry if I’m not overly convinced.

All of this is merely a preview for determining the proper odds on Chicago losing their last 6 games in a row. Their schedule is arguably the toughest in the league down the stretch:

vs PHI (+3.5) (Eagles ML is -178)
@ DET
vs NE
@ MIN
vs NYJ
@ GB

If we set lines on all of these games, we can then convert to an approximate moneyline and then throw all of these in a parlay calculator to see what the payout should be.

We’ll start with the Packers because it’s the easiest of the 5 remaining to handicap. The Jets host the Bungles this weekend and Baltimore is at home to Tampa. Both of those games are a similar type matchup to Bears @ Green Bay and those games are both -9, -400.

New England and the Jets are both of similar quality to the Eagles and we’ll install both of them at -4, -200.

This leaves divisional road games at Detroit and Minnesota. Detroit is 2-2 at home, routing the Rams, beating the Redskins and losing by a FG to the Jets and Eagles. They are 6.5 point underdogs Thursday at home to New England. I could make an argument Detroit should be favored, but we’ll make the game a pickem for our purposes here. As far as Minnesota, they could have given up on the season by the time this game rolls around. I think this is the Bears best chance to win out of the 6 and will make Minnesota a +1.5, +120 underdog.

Entering these in the parlay calculator (-400, -200, -200, -178, -100, +120) yields a payout of 18.33/1. If you up New England and the Jets to -6, -270 favorites, the payout drops to 15.13 which is pretty close to what I offered Pat if I may say so…

I’ll still take action on this at 15, but there’s no way I can do 12. Even moving the Lions to -140 and the Packers to -450, along with the Jets @ Pats adjustments still leaves it at 12.5. I’ll offer Pat a compromise and say I’m willing to go a low as 14:1 just because I think this will be a fun bet to make and as Pat mentioned, I can’t actually bet this anywhere else.

Declan Hill:

It is the time for the fixes.

Here is what I know.

The fixers are in South Africa. They have been desperately trying to contact various teams. They have various runners and old contacts coming in and out of the hotels and training camps. They are trying ‘to do the business’ with various players and administrators.

Given these circumstances which matches should we red-flag for possible corruption?

1)Games where one team has nothing to play for. Even if they win the teams will not progress to the next stage of the competition.

2)Teams which have a history of not paying their players properly. It is the phenomenon of relative exploitation which drives fixing. The officials receive lots of money, the players comparatively little.

The games I will be watching closely are Cameroon vs. the Netherlands and Honduras vs. Switzerland. In no way do I want to suggest that I have heard anything about players on these teams being open to fixing matches. In no way do I want to suggest that even if they had been approached the players would have taken money. But I do want to say that if either of these teams loses by more than the Asian ‘spread’ of goals (2 goals and above) then FIFA should bring in their toothless tigers of investigators and begin to ask questions.

Have to post this:

Goal! Goal USA!

South Africa PK +170 vs. France is on strike

Going with the point spread here. This will push on a draw. I have a small amount on SA +280 straight up as well.

Uruguay/Mexico o2 +175
I’ll be livebetting this one and putting my 100% live betting record at risk in this one. The draw for this game has gone from -150 to nearly even as the 2nd place team will have to face Argentina in the second round. Mexico will not be playing for a draw. Not willing pick a result up front, but I really like the over 2. I also loved the over 2 on both of Chile’s games, but their lack of finishing turned those bets into losers. We’ll see what Mexico and Uruguay have today.

EDIT: Knockout round scenarios entering the final group games are here.

Denmark & Cameroon meanwhile looked incredibly poor in their opening games and laughed at o/u 2 as neither team defended well or with much interest.  The 2-1 final should have been more like 3-3.

Action we are adding:

o2½+140 (IVORY COAST/BRAZIL)

o2+120 (SWITZERLAND/CHILE)

TO WIN – FIFA WORLD CUP URUGUAY +3500

We know from the given match odds that Uruguay is roughly 75% likely to win their group, doing so with a win or draw against Mexico.  If they succeed, their reward is a 2nd round game against Greece/South Korea/Nigeria, all three of whom they will be favored against.  Getting 35:1 on a team that’s a favorite to advance to the quarterfinals is good value.  Also keep in mind that the way the bracket shakes out, teams from Groups A-D won’t face Groups E-G until the semifinals.  There’s a decent chance pre-tournament favorites Spain and Brazil will face each other in the round of 16.  Uruguay winning their group would also see them avoid Argentina in round 2.  Should Uruguay fail to win their group, any value at 35:1 will cease to exist.

Lastly, the Marlins gave away vuvuzelas to all fans attending last night’s game against Tampa. 

Looking to feed off World Cup soccer buzz, the Marlins gave away plastic air horns to fans as they entered the stadium, the toy instruments creating a loud and never-ending soundtrack for the night. Similar to the vuvuzelas that dominate the audio landscape at matches in South Africa, the buzzing of the horns blared from long before the first pitch, and some were still going at the end.

The horns might have been a hit with fans, but they were a big miss with those on the field, especially because all the noise could have prompted a lineup-card miscommunication between Gonzalez and Barksdale.

“It was the most uncomfortable baseball game I’ve been a part of in a long time because of that,” crew chief Tom Hallion said. “Whether that had anything to do with it, I don’t know, but it could have. When’s the last time you heard something like that at a baseball game? Never. You don’t see this kind of stuff at baseball games.”

Said Maddon: “I really believe the horns should be banned from Major League Baseball.”

Added Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla, who, like the umpires, resorted to earplugs: “That was the worst handout or giveaway I’ve ever been a part of in baseball. This isn’t soccer. I know the World Cup is going on, but this is baseball.”

And this from Marlins center fielder Cody Ross: “It was awful, awful. I can’t tell you how awful it was.”

Uruguay hit an over yesterday in the second group game and Argentina has an early goal this morning, so things are looking up.  Having not looked at the lines in detail for this second batch of games, there has to be some value in some overs going forward.  I wonder if the weather has anything to do with it?

Also, we’re adding a play England -450 vs. Algeria

Uruguay to win Group A +350

This one is already off the board as Group A starts today, but this was also available at +400.  Even odds for a team that should be slightly better than that in the most wide open group of the eight.

New Zealand Total Goals Under 1.5

New Zealand failed to score at the Confederations Cup in 2009 against Spain, Iraq and South Africa.  They scored one goal in 180 minutes against Bahrain to qualify.  They haven’t scored more than one goal in a competitive game in a very long time (games against fellow South Pacific island nations excluded).  That said, they’ve been very good in warmups, beating Serbia 1-0 and nearly drawing Australia, losing 2-1 on a stoppage time goal.  They still haven’t scored more than one goal in a game though.  NZ plays Italy, Paraguay and Slovakia in the group stage and this bet says they won’t score in two of those games.

Greece – South Korea 0-0 Draw +600

Greece is quite possibly the most boring team in the tournament and +600 or so is probably going to be offered on this exact bet for all three of their games.  South Korea will likely have to manufacture a goal from open play as Greece are very good on set pieces, which will also be their best chance to score.  The over/under for this game is 2, not 2.5, so not a lot of goals are expected.  This, along with New Zealand, is a high variance play.

Brazil -1000 vs North Korea

Brazil has to win this game over 90% of the time for this to be profitable.  It’s very, very difficult to envision them losing to a North Korea team that we know almost nothing about but isn’t particularly good.

Portugal/Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals +135

A little secret about these two teams is that neither of them are particularly good at defending.

Brazil Goals for the Tournament Over 6.5 -110

This is not the most prolific scoring Brazil team to grace the World Cup, but they aren’t up against the strongest defensive teams either.  This will may hinge on how many goals they score in their opener if Brazil have problems in their group.  Brazil have scored 10+ goals in six of the last seven World Cups.

Les Habitants

From Puck Prospectus:

December 19th is the line of demarcation for me. That’s when Montreal’s prime mover, defenseman Andrei Markov, returned from a freak injury suffered on opening night. At that point in the season––through 37 games––the Canadiens had gone a poor but rather fortunate 16-18-3 (.473 winning percentage) given the fact that they were 8-3 in extra time. Montreal detractors––which includes essentially everyone writing or talking hockey right now, from the conventional pundits to my sabermetrically savvy colleagues at Puck Prospectus––point to the uninspiring results of those early season Price-led, Markov-less Canadiens when explaining away how fortunate the Habs were to upset the Capitals and why they have no shot against the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. But you’re talking about two completely different teams. Whether conflating those two teams indiscriminately, or conflating them in the name of collecting a larger sample size, you’re bound to get fooled by these Habs, and surprised by the results.

After Markov’s return, the Canadiens finished the final 45 games of the regular season with a fine 23-15-9 (.589 winning percentage) run – as hot as any Eastern Conference team over that stretch of games, other than––of course––Washington. Even more impressively, with Markov in the lineup and Halak in goal, Montreal transformed from a team scoring 2.47 GF/game (30th in NHL) and allowing 2.88 GA/game (18th in NHL) with -0.41 GD/game (25th in NHL) to a team scoring 2.91 GF/game (8th in NHL) and allowing 2.48 GA/game (4th in NHL) with a 0.42 GD/game (5th in NHL). Sure, the team that beat the Capitals may have been the “16th overall seed”––lucky to get in the playoffs over the Rangers with a mere 88 points––but don’t get fooled: it was the 5th best team in the league upsetting the best team in the league with the help of an outstanding performance in goal.

But December 19th is not just for the Canadiens; it provides an illuminating starting point for looking at the Penguins as well. Through 36 games, Pittsburgh was a scalding 25-10-1 (.708 winning percentage), fourth in the NHL at +25 GVT, a hair’s breadth behind Washington’s league-leading +30 GVT. Yet over the next 46 games, the Pens went a tepid 22-18-6 (.543 winning percentage), their lackluster performance camouflaged by the wins and points accumulated in October and November. Keeping in mind that a .561 winning percentage is average––given the additional points given for overtime losses––you’re talking about a below average team over the course of more than half the regular season, regardless of their pedigree as defending Stanley Cup champions, regardless of their marquee exposure, regardless of their big name superstars. Perception is about as far from reality as you can get – With both teams.

The series is currently tied at 2-2 and you can get the same price on Montreal to win the series, roughly +300, as was available four games ago. I’ve also got small action on Montreal wo win the East and the Stanley Cup at +900 and +2200 respectively.

La Liga

It’s the second to last week of the season and once again time to involve the favorite team of Miracle Covers: Athletico Madrid.
Opponents Sporting Gijon are -150 at home tomorrow.

Since mid-March, two teams have been playing their La Liga matches as though the tournament were a sporting version of Asterix’s Roman Legion: an entertaining way to know new cities, make some friends and get food for free. Atletico are one of them.

Atletico’s week passed by placidly, talking about their upcoming Europa League final, with happy statements from players and coach (Quique Sanchez even said: “We work to bring happiness to the people”, and I can’t even think of a politically correct pun here). They even managed to beat Valladolid on Wednesday, in an almost unintended way, taking advantage of Clemente’s team wasteful first half and subsequent hara-kiri after Atletico scored first.

Sporting aren’t totally free of trouble yet, but they will be after playing Atletico’s B side on Saturday.

Lastly, the Round Rock Express have a new pitcher.

EDIT: Current lines from Pinnacle are here.

Unfortunately, this isn’t 2008 when Tampa and Seattle provided two of the easiest covers available in the past decade, both clearing by August. It’s not even 2009 where the same Seattle team covered again thanks to their outfield defense, this time on the over. There’s not a whole lot of value out there and as such, these plays are going to be on the small side. Both of mine are in the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays OVER 88.5
What keeps teams like St. Louis and Anaheim so damned good every year is not only their great players being great, but the lack of suckiness throughout the rest of the team. A completely average team with 1-2 superstars will win 90+ every season. Throw in a replacement player or two and you’ll only be good for 80+. Tampa won 84 games last season despite having near black holes in CF, RF and DH. It’s VERY hard to win when 1/3 or even 1/7 of your lineup is an automatic out. Those holes weren’t expected, but they were there and it’s very hard to compensate.

As far as this season, Zobrist will likely regress but so long as he’s average and not the Zobrist of 2007 that’s OK. They could use an upgrade at catcher, but so could 15 other teams, and we’re only looking for a 5-win improvement. The pitching staff is solid from top to bottom and players like Andy Sonnanstine and Reid Brignac are valuable trade chits should injuries strike.

Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 71
Crap starting pitching. A commitment to rebuilding. No one outside of Canada who doesn’t play fantasy baseball could name more than three starters for this team who also conveniently play 60+ games versus TB, BOS and NYY. It’s easy to get caught out on under bets when a team is not legitimately rebuilding (Houston) and will happily punt September to give it’s young players playing time. That won’t be a problem here. Toronto’s rotation had problems without Halladay’s near-guarantee of 200+ innings and a sub-3.50 ERA. Replace those starts with more from Romero, Cecil, Richmond and Purcey and it’s not going to be pretty. You want to look for teams whose own players really won’t give a crap when September rolls around. You want the Toronto Blue Jays.

Pinnacle has a line (below) for “Will a Boat Sink?” currently at -1650. I know most of you don’t enjoy betting large favorites, but a boat has only sunk 5 times in 156 races and none in the past 30 years. The flip side is that the odds opened at 33-1 and have been cut almost in half thanks to poor weather being forecast and mildly heavy betting on the sinking side.

Boat Race 2010 Odds

I think I’ve written about this before, but rowing was THE sport, similar to NFL in the United States now, in the 19th century, but it’s popularity waned as gambling scandals and fixing became more and more common. There is much to read here (rowinghistory.net) but these two stories stood out:

Another tactic used by the unscrupulous backers was to try to influence the betting odds. Faking an illness just prior to a race is one way to boost the odds and make for a bigger pay-out after the unexpected victory, but there were other ways as well. Cleaver wrote in The History Of Rowing about a race between the Australians, Harry Searle and Julius Woolf, on the Parramatta River in 1866.

Woolf had been defeated by Stansbury a fortnight earlier, so he was not much in favor with the betting public, and it looked as if Searle’s backers would have to be content with the bare prize-money. John Spencer [Searle’s manager] refrained from betting at all before the start of the race, and instructed Searle to hang back and “feel” Woolf in the early stages, and, as soon as he was sure of his man, to shake his head from side to side, but not to go to the front until he got a signal from Spencer, who was in a boat following the race.

The race had barely started when Searle’s head was seen to wobble violently. This caused loud laughter among those who had never seen Searle race before. Meanwhile, his commissioners were snapping up every bet offered, with Woolf still leading and going great guns. Suddenly Spencer waved a red handkerchief and in a hundred yards Searle was a length ahead, and the issue beyond doubt.

The Town of Barrie [Canada] was holding its second annual regatta on Kempenfeldt Bay and had invited an American, James H. Riley, to row against Hanlan. The champion [Hanlan] had agreed, against his better judgement. He was not in good condition after his recent trip across the Atlantic, and halfway through the course Hanlan had to stop. Riley was stunned and refused to cross the finish line. He had obviously placed bets on Hanlan and would lose his money if he won the race. The judges were flabbergasted by the whole affair, ruled the race a draw and ordered a re-row. Hanlan declined, preferring to forfeit the prize money.

Two stories today:

From The Daily Fix:

What makes the Big East’s start so poor is that the selection committee gave top-three seeds to five of its teams, suggesting that those five should have been good bets to reach the Sweet 16. That makes the 6-6 record even worse than if the eight teams all had mediocre seeds.

Overall, the Big East’s seeds could have been expected to collect 6.5 first-round wins and 3.9 berths in the Sweet 16. Instead they collected four and two, respectively, for letdowns of -2.5 and -1.9 — or 39% and 49%, respectively. In absolute terms, the Big East was by far the most disappointing conference. The SEC’s four representatives won two first-round games, compared to an expected 2.9 — but those two winners, Kentucky and Tennessee, also won in the second round to exceed overall expectations for the conference. And the Big 12 had two Sweet 16 teams, compared to an expectation of 2.9, but did outperform slightly in the first round, with five wins compared to an expectation of 4.9. In percentage terms, Conference USA and the Western Athletic Conference were worse, with neither league having a single tournament win, but neither could have been expected to have a Sweet 16 entrant.

Notes from the NCAA Hoops Head Coach Meat Market (Sports Economist)

Welcome to the sausage making factory, hoops fans. Former St. John’s coach Norm Roberts was unable to sign big name recruits from the Big Apple. Why? He played by the rules. Some of the quotes in this article are shocking. “You got to hustle here, bend some rules or do something…” Russel Smith, a coach with the New York Gauchos, a prominent NYC AAU team. “At St. John’s, they’re not getting certain types of players because they’re doing things the right way.” Kenny Wilcox, head coach at a junior college in Brooklyn.