Author Archive

2011 NFL Season Win Totals

MGM posted these in Vegas on Tuesday ahead of the abbreviated free agency to take place this weekend. NFC South New Orleans Saints 10 (Over +105, Under -125) Atlanta Falcons 10.5 (Over -105, Under -115) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 Carolina Panthers 4.5 North Green Bay Packers 11.5 Chicago Bears 9.5 Detroit Lions 7.5 (Over flat, [...]

Jeter 3000

-300 on Jeter’s 3000th hit being a single at Bookmaker. Jeter’s extra base hit percentage since 2009 is 22%.

When to Use Reverse Run Lines

A reverse (better known as alternate) run line is a bet that the listed underdog will or will not win the game by more than one run. For example, tonight’s Pirates/Braves line is as follows: Braves (Jurrjens) -120 Pirates (Morton) +113 The Run Line (or handicap or spread) is: Braves -1.5 +146 Pirates +1.5 -158 [...]

Vagaries and Variance

As I write this, the White Sox and Royals are in extra innings because KC closer Joakim Soria allowed four runs to Chicago after recording the first two outs easily in the top of the 9th. The following discussion took place between the befuddled Royals announcers: Announcer 1: What are the odds in Vegas that [...]

Lou’s MLB Over/Unders Part 2

5) Cincinnati Reds (Over 84.5) What’s most striking about the Reds is the sheer depth of their team, extending to the high minors as well. Unlike teams such as the Cardinals, this depth means the floor is fairly low, so much so that I’d be somewhat shocked to see this team finish below .500. There’s [...]

Lou’s MLB Over/Unders Part 1

Before we start, I’d like to point out my perfect record in NFL picks this past season.  This doesn’t change in any way that I’m setting money on fire with these plays and I do have an actual play on the first three on this list.  Unfortunately for me, I had to make up the [...]

Not Scared of Tiger

Pinnacle has an interesting golf prop on Tiger Woods: From last weekend’s tournament Rookie Brendan Steele couldn’t believe what he saw from one of golf’s all-time greats in his first tournament of the year on Sunday. He basically saw Woods, still winless since his infamous Thanksgiving car crash and ensuing public divorce, quit on the [...]

Lou & Pat’s Open Bets

As most of the readers of this site are aware, Pat & I have significant action with one another on some NFL regular season bets that are still very much undecided with 4 weeks to go. By far the most interesting is Kansas City to win the AFC West at 10:1. Here’s the situation headed [...]

Glad I Spent 600+ Words Ripping Chicago

The curse of the blog continues? In all fairness it was a very well played game, at home, by the Bears and absolutely horrendous play calling by the Eagles. Can anyone explain to me why the Eagles kicked field goals in the 4th quarter down 31-13 and 31-16? Some other notes: – We’ve now found [...]

Da Bears

I’m on record publicly as being skeptical of the Bears’ success so far this season (and Tampa to a lesser extent, though I’ll leave that for another post). It’s not that Chicago has a terrible team, they’re easily a mid-table side capable of beating most teams at home and are expected underdogs on the road [...]