Author: lou
Week 7 Notes
Focus this week is mostly on a specific element each team is doing poorly
Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray no longer running (3 weeks now)
Atlanta Falcons – Ridley + others completely ineffective at WR, short yardage, esp. running, an issue since 1966
Baltimore Ravens – Injuries starting to become a problem – team has managed extremely well until this week. Difficult schedule rest of season
Buffalo Bills – Weirdly struggling in 3rd/4th and short yardage. Punting has been poor
Carolina Panthers – Leading the league in punts
Chicago Bears – Can’t pass protect which caps both current offense and Fields development
Cincinnati Bengals – Not going to say anything negative about the Bengals :)
Cleveland Browns – Very good defense masked by awful performance to date on 3rd/4th down
Dallas Cowboys – Worst in league defensively yards after catch – slants and screens will beat them
Denver Broncos – allowing pressure on 30% of dropbacks, QB + WR injuries mean not enough skill to compensate
Detroit Lions – Successful deep throws almost non-existent on offense – everything is short. Defense worst in league on passes to RBs
Green Bay Packers – Secondary holding up, Special Teams poor for 2nd year running. Difficult schedule upcoming
Houston Texans – worst offense in the league by a good margin – will likely struggle even vs. Miami and NYJ
Indianapolis Colts – Excellent rush defense (best in league?) but poor pass defense against any competent QB
Jacksonville Jaguars – Performance dropoff once trailing by 2+ scores
Kansas City Chiefs – Only forcing 4th down on roughly one of every 5 opponent 1st downs. Last in every defense category – .500 team without improvement
Las Vegas Raiders – Poor red-zone defense masking average defense otherwise – worse at home than on the road so far
Los Angeles Chargers – Worst team in the league vs. run. Part design & part personnel. Usual kicking/ST woes
Miami Dolphins – Last in QB pressures at under 3 percent – Maybe this is why Tua is so bad when pressured
Minnesota Vikings – Poor running team masked by run play volume. Need to throw 2x more which Zimmer won’t do
New England Patriots – Defense markedly worse vs. shotgun – 2 games vs. Jets skewing team evaluation
New Orleans Saints – Red zone regression coming on offense – fewest offensive plays in the league
New York Giants – Incapable of running outside – no above average positional groups
New York Jets – Worst 1st half team in league this season and worst 1st quarter team of all time
Philadelphia Eagles – Hopeless when Hurts is under center which limits offensive options
Pittsburgh Steelers – Offense up to nearly average – Smith-Shuster needs to improve and be put in better situations to convert 2nd/3rd downs
San Francisco 49ers – have been awful on offense in close/late game situations, 2nd half defense has also been poor exacerbating the problem
Seattle Seahawks – Zero (0) for Three (3) on 4th down attempts for the entire season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Pass defense has held up so far but reliant on pass rush and facing below avg. QBs – Elite offense can and will carry team
Tennessee Titans – Can’t cover slot receivers – Overall defense not awful but extremely variable week-to-week
Washington Football Team – Offensive redzone a huge problem – drives to GB 24, 27, 1, 3, 12 and 27 end in 3 combined points
Power Rankings Week 3
Continuing the theme of posting my notes for public consumption:
Kansas City Chiefs – Defense & Roster sneakily young & should improve
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No change from last week Autopilot until Nov/Dec. Need trades/signings to bolster DBs
Los Angeles Rams – Sloppy win – still need to avoid injuries
Buffalo Bills – Obviously and comprehensively better than Miami – Cupcake schedule with tests against KC and TB
San Francisco 49ers – Will slowly continue to decrease talent level over the season. Outplayed or even with Eagles at best
Cleveland Browns – Significant issues at WR
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos – Professional win @ Jax
Seattle Seahawks – Poor defense will lead to more overs and blown leads – no margin for conservative playcalling
Baltimore Ravens – Good comeback, Seattle comment applies
Dallas Cowboys – Defense and coaching flaws unchanged from 2020
Los Angeles Chargers – Played Dallas to a draw but Continuing to lose games on the margins
Carolina Panthers – Superb defense vs. NO – avg offense gets them to playoffs
Arizona Cardinals – Murray and defense improved. Game management and playcalling have not
Pittsburgh Steelers – Overall offense a continual problem – avg offense gets them to playoffs
Las Vegas Raiders – Overall defense a continual problem
New Orleans Saints – Overall offense a continual problem
Philadelphia Eagles – Could be the most inconsistent in the league in 2021
New England Patriots – Pats receivers still not getting open – O-line outplayed by Jets front
Minnesota Vikings – Good in 2nd half, curse of Gary Anderson
Indianapolis Colts – Unlikely to win games vs. teams above them on this list – Does healthy Wentz exist?
Tennessee Titans – Comeback more an indictment of Seattle defense. Too many negative plays from Tannehill
Miami Dolphins – Small margins for error and limited offense until Tua improves or gets upgraded
Cincinnati Bengals – Playcalling and O-line still an issue
Chicago Bears – Defense was better vs. Bengals, Fields equal QB to Dalton as of right now but with ability to run
Washington Football Team
New York Giants – O-line doing OK, poor in red zone
Houston Texans
Atlanta Falcons – Disorganized on offense which defeats the point of having a veteran qb. Pitts already top-10 TE. No defense
Detroit Lions
New York Jets – Who was Wilson throwing to on the 4th INT? Front 7 did well vs. NE esp. Mosely at LB
Jacksonville Jaguars – No safety again and defense has been bottom 5- Zero on offense minus opening drive and garbage time
32 Teams 32 Brief Thoughts
I never actually post, but wrote my notes of every team and am sharing them here
Arizona Cardinals – Impressive but reminder Titans may be weak. 2nd-4th yr QBs can always improve
Atlanta Falcons – O-line, defense too poor to compete
Baltimore Ravens – Major O-line issues plus injuries will struggle to .500 coaching change?
Buffalo Bills – Slight regression puts AFC East in play for Pats & Miami – no real concerns off of wk 1
Carolina Panthers – Darnold awful in red zone
Chicago Bears – Defense has regressed, Owner/GM/Coach combo prevents winning
Cincinnati Bengals – 2nd-4th yr QBs can always improve, will hit over if O-line holds up. Bates top-5 safety but Bengals won’t pay him because they are cheap
Cleveland Browns – Perfect gameplan and 1st half vs. Chiefs. Mayfield is poor in 4th quarters and/or when trailing
Dallas Cowboys – Opting for short FGs cost them the game vs. TB. No margin for error with below avg defense
Denver Broncos – Aggressive on offense, need to continue
Detroit Lions – Miracle cover of 2021
Green Bay Packers – Is Aaron Rogers tanking? Need more data points on team play because of week 1 blowout
Houston Texans – Avg veterans can get Texans to avg-ish record. Non-zero chance to win division with other teams weakness
Indianapolis Colts – Offense zero margin for error. Wentz OK not great
Jacksonville Jaguars – Should improve but how soon?
Kansas City Chiefs – Same defensive issues as last season but Mahomes
Las Vegas Raiders – Underrated skill positions + QB. ????s all around on defense masked by Baltimore poor O-line week 1. Gruden awful decisions in-game and will continue to cost wins/points on the margins
Los Angeles Chargers – Slater excellent LT, might have enough skill to overcome no home field if team injuries subside
Los Angeles Rams – No changes to preseason outlook, depth still major concern
Miami Dolphins – Is Tua Andy Dalton or Kirk Cousins 2.0?
Minnesota Vikings – Team might quit on Zimmer, very minimal upside
New England Patriots – Jonnu Smith key to offense, too conservative week 1
New Orleans Saints – Defense equal to last year’s top 5 group based on week 1, offense questions still exist. Too reliant on Kamara
New York Giants – Upcoming Washington and Atlanta games will provide barometer for all 3 teams talent level and outlook – Denver superior + horrible matchup
New York Jets – No above avg pass blockers on roster. Worst team in AFC
Philadelphia Eagles – Excellent week 1, need more data points. Can win division
Pittsburgh Steelers – Best Front 7 in league, secondary did well. O-line plus immoble QB puts significant limitation on offense. Will struggle to score points on long fields
San Francisco 49ers – Reliance on extremely injury-prone players means team will be worse than current talent level later in the season
Seattle Seahawks – Play calling highly encouraging. IND not capable of testing secondary
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Autopilot until Nov/Dec. Need trades/signings to bolster DBs
Tennessee Titans – Will not make playoffs without winning division. Not enough talent across the roster
Washington Football Team – Horrific October schedule, Heinicke unlikely to be top 25 QB
Also per Sean’s request, My current HFA for all 32 teams:
Arizona Cardinals – 2
Atlanta Falcons – 2
Baltimore Ravens – 3
Buffalo Bills – 3
Carolina Panthers – 2.5
Chicago Bears – 3
Cincinnati Bengals – 2
Cleveland Browns – 2.5
Dallas Cowboys – 2.5
Denver Broncos – 3
Detroit Lions – 2
Green Bay Packers – 3
Houston Texans – 2
Indianapolis Colts – 3
Jacksonville Jaguars – 2
Kansas City Chiefs – 3
Las Vegas Raiders – 1.5
Los Angeles Chargers – 0
Los Angeles Rams – 1.5
Miami Dolphins – 2
Minnesota Vikings – 2.5
New England Patriots – 3
New Orleans Saints – 3
New York Giants – 2
New York Jets – 1.5
Philadelphia Eagles – 3
Pittsburgh Steelers – 3
San Francisco 49ers – 3
Seattle Seahawks – 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2.5
Tennessee Titans – 3
Washington Football Team – 1.5
NFL 2018 Season Plays & Over/Unders
My confidence plays (all of these IRL 1u)
5pts (max) Bills Under 6.5
4) Colts Over 6.5
3) Browns Over 5.5
2) Panthers Under 8.5
1) Cardinals Over 5.5
Others:
Chiefs AFC West +305
Saints NFC South +170
Keenan Allen Most Receiving Yards +1200
Hilton Contest Week 17
Browns +11
49ers -3
Giants +3
Broncos -3.5
Dolphins +2.5
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 46-30-4
Hilton Contest Week 16
Bengals +4.5
Bucs +10
Cardinals -3.5
Bills +11.5
Saints -5.5
Last Week: 2-1-2
Season: 42-29-4
Hilton Contest Week 15
Titans +2
Raiders +3
Bucs +6.5
Bears +5.5
Jaguars -10.5
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 40-28-2
Hilton Contest Picks Week 14
Jaguars -2.5
Browns +3
Rams -2
Dolphins +11
Ravens +5
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 37-26-2
Hilton Contest Picks Week 13
Ravens -2.5
Bills +8.5
Browns +14
Seahawks +6
Bengals +5
Last Week: 1-4
Season: 33-25-2
Hilton Contest Picks Week 12
Packers +14
Bears +13.5
Giants +7.5
49ers +6.5
Bucs +9.5
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 32-21-2
