Wild Card Playoff Picks
I won’t be betting every spread…..but I will take a line for each game in the yearly quest to go 11-0 ATS (or at least undefeated). Anything I actually bet on is in BOLD.
Mike Mularkey on the road with no DeMarco Murray, a young QB who can run but has no one to throw to, and a WR Eric Decker who can get open….but just can’t catch the ball? Decker has sucked since he left Peyton Manning. Yes, I know it’s Reid and Smith at home and they lose here a lot but this isn’t the round for the yearly Andy Reid special. That is for the next round.
Saints -7 (EVEN)
The Saints are a good, balanced team with arguably a top 3 QB in Drew Brees and the top playcaller in Sean Peyton. I usually fear the “beat a team 2 times before a playoff game” line but the Saints are in the Dome, we aren’t paying juice, and the Panthers are incredibly flawed as Cam Newton has no one to throw to and their CB play hasn’t been as good as previous years. I actually might also take the Saints to win the NFC (+400), because I think they are good enough to get to the NFC Championship game where we could then hedge.
The Rams are good….but they are young and the Falcons do a good job of keeping games outstandingly close despite their mediocre play. They were actually the one team wiseguys bet on the most all year. It’s because, like in this game…as in most games….they have more talent than the other side usually, especially at skill positions. It’s just coaching really fails them in the key moments…despite the basics being sound (the Cover 3 defense, the stretch PA system they run, etc). I think they keep it close against a LA Rams team who has a banged up unproven QB, a backup kicker, and a young coach and roster with a lot to prove.
Do I have to take Blake Bortles in a playoff game? I guess, at least he’s thrown the ball OK for good fantasy stats the last few weeks. I actually like the Over 39 (-105) in this one as both Jacksonville and Buffalo are top scoring defenses and both QBs are top at throwing TAINTs.
And of course, the 3 result +135 teaser (please don’t fuck me Alex Smith):
BUF/JAX Over 39