NFL Wild Card Picks
The quest to go undefeated against the spread during the playoffs has begun! I’ve only known one person who went 9-0-2 (in 2010), and I have never known anyone who went 11-0 against the spread during a playoff season. Always a fun quest, and great for degeneracy bragging rights!
Oakland +4 (-110)
I love that the 4:30pm Saturday NFL Playoff game has become the annual, “AFC South Winner vs Shitty Wild Card Team That You Can Skip On a Saturday Afternoon Bowl”. Have a family? Need to do some errands? Wanna find some time to get a run in? Welp, the NFL just has the time slot for you! Of course, I don’t have a life, or a family, and will probably watch this game alone rooting for a QB making his first NFL start vs another QB who lost his job mid-season to a guy who was one hit away from a nursing home last year in Denver. I think someone wins this game by 3, hence if Houston were to fall to -3 or lower, I might of taken them. But gimme the points here *and* I also like the Over 37 at -105. In the last 30 years, any playoff total of 40, the over has hit 60% of the time, and 38 or lower, the total has hit 65% of the time. I expect fail to equal points here, so I also advise taking a look at the “Defensive TD” and “Special Teams TD” props if you can get them for this game. It should be a blooper reel of bad football fun!
Miami +10 (-110)
Just way too many points. Matt Moore has been good this year, and historically (with the Panthers), ATS all his career. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the only game they haven’t covered this month was vs New England. Pittsburgh is talented but a bit top heavy; they lack in major depth in most areas and they are just one knock on Old Big Ben’s knee away from the “Not Jarvis” Landry Jones experience. Pittsburgh keeps teams in games unnecessarily because as skilled of a play caller PIT OC Tood Haley is, sometimes he does get too cute and throws the ball too much. The Pittsburgh Front 7 isn’t what it used to be in prior years, and looked awful vs these Dolphins earlier in the year when Lawrence Timmons was puking (vodka from South Beach the night before) onto the field and the MIA RB Jay Ajayi era was born. This line should be from +7.5 to +8.5. We’ll take the points here.
Giants +4.5 (-110)
This started at 7 for the NYG. The Giants have the best playing secondary going into the tournament, and Green Bay is playing at home in cold weather, which actually favors the Giants as it will help them like it did in 2011 vs Rodgers and company. Eli’s arm isn’t the best, but I expect him to keep it close enough to where we see a 3 point game in the final 2 minutes and he has the ball and either throws a TD or throws it to the other team. This, IMO, is the most unbettable game of the week….even more so than the crap fest in Houston. A true toss up and should be a fun contest.
Lions +8 (-110)
Lou has me scared shitless because as he knows from past experience, he knows Matt Stafford is always throwing one TAINT away from a miracle cover scooping up one’s bankroll as a Josh Wilson Pick-6 did so in 2009. That being said, Seattle limps into the playoff only covering one single line the final month of the year (vs LA…not saying much) and is really missing all world safety Earl Thomas both emotionally and physically. I have confidence that Lions OC (and best name ever) Jim Bob Cooter will call the game he’s called all year for Stafford: to keep the game close, throw the ball sideways (which actually is how you beat Cover 3 that Seattle runs), and keep the clock running. Lou likes the under at 43 (and so do I), which is another reason why I like the 8. Seattle offense has been wretched the last few weeks, mostly because they may have the worst OL going into these playoffs. And also, Matt Stafford might know a thing or two about helping one achieve a miracle cover as well:
I am also taking all dogs this weekend. I dunno if its the smartest thing I’ve ever done, or the stupidest. But this has been a wacky year for NFL betting, so it sounds about right.
BTW, Podcast #4 is up, with our leans for the NFL Playoffs Prop Odds and WNBA, and NCAA CFB Final: