NFL Divisional

One interesting stat: since moving to the 6 playoff team system, the #1 and #2 seeds were 12-12 in the divisional round up until 2010. Since then? 16-4. Goes to show that the parody of the league is going in the OTHER direction towards top heavy (or as Lou noted, bottom heavy), and that was reflected in all of the faves covering last week.

New England -16

I can’t take the Texans and the points…even though I really should according to the betting numbers. It’s going to be cold, New England is healthy and rested, and the Texans offense is historically bad. It’s also most likely Patriots’ great, and current Texans’ DL’s Vince Wilfork’s, last game….and it will be at Gillette Stadium. Hope he gets a good ovation. But it’s Belichick and Brady at home, and I think they take care of business and cover. On a side note: if the Texans some how win, I would consider this the biggest upset in AFC Playoff history. They are a +900 underdog. Here are some of the other big ML dogs in playoff history:

Packers +4.5

No Jordy Nelson hurts the Pack, but I am taking the most likely MVP candidate and HOFer Aaron Rodgers over a rookie QB making his first start. This game is also indoors, and I think that favors the Packers’ passing game vs a milquetoast Dallas secondary.

Atlanta -4.5

No Earl Thomas = bad news for the Seahawks, who nearly lost to these same Falcons at home if it wasn’t for a blown pass interference call on WR Julio Jones back in October. Indoors, I think the Falcons take care of business and put up some big numbers on the board on Saturday afternoon. The X factor for Seattle: Can they run the ball as well as they did last week?

KC -1

This game got moved back to 8:20pm due to an ice storm (lame). Either way, if you look at Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger’s splits home and away, he’s a totally different QB on the road, losing over 30+ points on his QB rating this year alone as a road starter. Add the still icy/cold conditions, not only do I like KC, I also like the Under at 44.