Divisional Saturday

Posted in NFL - 2016/01/16 - 0 Comment

Went 2-2 last weekend…two of my picks blew double digit leads….the theme of WC weekend was the better QB won in every single matchup. Could that be a theme for this week? I think there will be some deviations of this for this weekend because of some key injuries to the outside offensive talent: Antonio Brown, DeAngelo Williams, and DaVante Adams are out. Gronkowski and Maclin are questionable.

KC (+5) at NE

This line has stayed constant all week. I think the Chiefs, with their great defense, will keep things close in Foxboro, where it is snowing/raining which could hamper the Pats passing game. As a Pats fan, I would usually lean more on my team here but they have major injuries on the offensive line and running back, and the replacements have played like dog shit. James White will need to have a big game I fancy for them to move the ball. The Pats lost 4 out of their last 6 going into the postseason…..that has never happened in the Bill Belichick era, which is astonishing. Gronkowski has a back issue, as well as got some injections in his knee. Julian Edleman is coming off of a foot fracture and some would argue he is more important to the offense than Gronk, especially on 3rd down. There’s also the Chandler Jones synthetic weed issue; does he play? Does it motivate him, or will be thinking about Doritos all game? After all is said and done, I do believe the Pats win the game, but the Chiefs cover. Alex Smith will need to throw for 300+ yards, or at least have 225 as well as 60+ rushing yards, for the Chiefs to have a chance to win. I see him projecting to do enough to keep it close. He missed some big plays last week due to inaccuracy, and the Chiefs offense sputtered after losing Jeremy Maclin (although it didn’t matter as the Texans sucked), who even if he plays, probably won’t even be at 60%. This will allow the patriots to focus more on shutting down KC TE Travis Kelce. The Chiefs need to score more than 24+ points today to win. I think they fall short and the Patriots (9-2 all time in the divisional round with Belichick) pull it out, losing 24-21.

GB (+7.5) at ARI

Arizona kicked the shit out of the Packers a few weeks ago, 38-8. Green Bay had somewhat of a resurgence last week, throwing the ball well and getting Randall Cobb back healthy and productive. They even ran the ball well. Granted, Arizona is of a different quality than the woeful Washington Football team (who I bet on last weekend…I was really hungover on Sunday after an all night poker bender). Arizona is the most balanced team in all of football, and have good coaching as well. That being said, I think there will be a lot of scoring in this game, and I am much more bullish on the Over at 49.5 than this line. I have models saying this game ends up 35-21, and others 38-34. Usually when a team plays another a second time after getting their ass kicked, they respond with a better performance. Aaron Rodgers won’t go down without a fight, and playing in a dome favors his style as he will be able to throw the ball downfield. The only question is can his WRs get open, as they have had issues beating man coverage this year. I will also probably tease the Packers as well.

Here is my DFS lineup for the week as I made it to Round 2 of the Yahoo “Champion of Champions” contest:

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