Month: November 2015
Monday Night Football Math
Ravens +4 (-110)
Yes, the Ravens are down to their 3WR, their backup QB (Matt Schaub), and backup RB (Buck Allen). Their defense is injured. But they face the Browns, starting a McCown tonight because Johnny Manziel can’t layoff the sauce and are somehow giving 4 points despite this being a pick’em before Joe Flacco was declared out for the year. As bad as the Ravens have been, they’ve actually played 90% of their games with a score margin of less than 5 pts.
75% of the bets are on the Browns….that is insane. The Browns aren’t 2 points better than anybody right now (maybe Tennessee – they suck too), never mind 4. Someone will win this shit fest 13-10.
Looks like the underdogs are catching up to the favorites later in the year. The only team holding serve is Carolina.
NFL teams getting ≤35% of the bets this season have gone 42-29 ATS this season. (59.2%)
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) November 30, 2015
Congrats to the Edmonton Eskimos for winning the Coupe Grey! I batted 80% on CFL this year (shoutout to buffaloholdem for some of these leans) and can’t wait for more rouges next year!
About to hand this bad boy out! #CFL #GreyCup pic.twitter.com/PRJdYTST2P
— CFL (@CFL) November 30, 2015
NFL Week 12
MIA vs NYJ Over 43.5
MIN +1.5
TEASER:
MIN +1.5
CIN -10
ARI -10
AND
TEASER: HOU -3 and Over 50
Totals and betting trends on Sunday's NFL games courtesy @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/9mK8CdMdpt
— Covers (@Covers) November 29, 2015
NFL Week 11
TB +7 (-120)
StL +3 (-110)
MIA v DAL Over 46
KC v SD Over 45
TEASER:
CAR -7
NE -7.5
ARI -5
Breakdown of the percentage of all point spread wagers (by total # of tickets) on Sunday's NFL games @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/UeBrgqcU94
— Covers (@Covers) November 22, 2015
CFL BONUS:
Redblacks -6
Cotto vs Canelo Thoughts
Big fight tonight as Mexico’s Saul “Canelo” Alvarez faces Puerto Rico’s Miguel Cotto for a unification title fight.
Canelo is coming off of a blistering KO of James Kirkland, and has only lost once (to Floyd Mayweather in a decision). He has power, but is considered more of a technical fighter like his promoter and former champion, Oscar De La Hoya. He is the younger fighter (25), and the favorite at -260.
Cotto is a legend in the sport for putting on some of the most gruesome fights in the sport. He blooded Floyd’s face in a catchweight bout, and is considered to have a great chin. He’s a zombie who just keeps on coming forward. He is 35 and aging and has hinted he is only going to fight a few more times; his next rumored bout would be against the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now, Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. A win tonight for Cotto would make that fight even bigger. Cotto has lost his last two fights via decision, and has changed his corner man to Freddie Roach (who corners Pacquiao). Roach claims Cotto will KO Canelo, but this is also the guy who said Rousey would KO Holly Holm and we all know how that worked out. He is a +200 underdog.
As for my thoughts? I again like the Over Rounds 11.5 tonight at -160. This line started at -200 and has moved down and I believe we are getting great value here. We have one fighter who has a granite chin and another fighter who is more technical than a brawler. Canelo has improved his power, but I don’t think it will be enough to put Cotto down in this fight (although Cotto’s fighting style will certainly give Canelo opportunities to score). The last guy Canelo KO’d, James Kirkland, is a “KO or be KO’d” type of fighter. While Cotto fights wild, he is also smart enough to pace himself AND has a gifted chin (which is why he is loved by boxing fans everywhere; he doesn’t quit).
I expect Canelo to use his youth in terms of cardio to “box and score” around the ring and make Cotto work to get into the brawling style close quarter exchanges he wants. I expect Canelo to win in a competitive split decision. The fight is in Vegas, so the crowd (and judges) will be on Canelo’s side. Canelo to win by decision is at +110 for those interested.
NCAA BONUS:
ND vs BC Under 43
TNF
I am going to pick the Jags and their piss colored unis tonight at -3 (EVEN). THey have played well lately and Yeldon is cleared to play. A win by any of these teams tonight gets them back in the AFC South “race”. We could see another 7-9 division winner this year! Always makes playoff gambling more fun!
NFL Week 10
NO at WAS Under 50.5
WSH +1 (-115)
PIT -6 (EVEN) (Big Ben *is* playing today)
PHI v MIA Over 49.5 (no Brent Grimes for MIA)
TEASER:
BAL -6
StL -7
PIT -5.5
Lou also likes DET +11….Megatron is playing today but man did Detroit look shitty two weeks ago. GB is playing shitty too but you’d expect a bounce back from Rodgers at some point. Both ML for JAX (+205) and TEN (+180) are tempting. The Jaguars haven’t won a road game in 714 days. The Titans have lost 9 consecutive home games.
Here's a look at totals and betting numbers on Sunday's NFL games courtesy @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/MgKxYGi8wN
— Covers (@Covers) November 15, 2015
Degen Friday
NBA:
BOS v ATL Over 207 (-115)
NHL:
COL v PIT Over 5.5 (+115)
BTW, we missed an under bet in Bosnia v Ireland today:
Looks like i missed an under bet pic.twitter.com/mzetm5uHjz
— Sean ♠️ (@Seanismoney) November 13, 2015
NFL Week 9
BUF v MIA Over 44
NYG -3 (+115)
Rams +1.5 and in TEASER with Under 41
This has been a top heavy season so far, but the dogs are coming back up:
A rise in NFL upsets has given life to road dogs of 6 or more points, which have gone 18-12-1 ATS (60%). Jags, Skins, Titans getting 6-plus.
— Jason Logan (@CoversJLo) November 8, 2015
TEASER:
NE -14
NO -7.5
PIT -5.5
