Month: September 2015

NFL Week 3

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/27 - 0 Comment

St. Louis +2 (-115)

This is now at +1.5 (-110). The public loves Pittsburgh this week.

Titans ML +155

The Colts might be imploding. Today is the start of a 4-game home stand for the Titans. They don’t play another road game until November 1. Man, is the AFC South bad; the winner of this division might be 7-9 this year.

BUF @ MIA Over 43

It’s hot in Miami, and this usually loosens up the defenses by the 2nd half and opens the play up. Also, both teams are kinda over rated on defense IMO.

TEASER (+140):

NE -14
SEA -14.5
CAR -10

DFS Lineups for today:

NCAA Saturday 9.26

Posted in NCAA Football - 2015/09/26 - 0 Comment

BYU +7 (-115)

BYU has had some wild finishes this year. Should be a fun game in Ann Arbor.

Texas A&M/Arkansas Over 58

This should be 65, in my view. These teams have played 3 games each, and only one time did one team score less than 20 points.

UFC BONUS:

Roy Nelson +240

Here also are our other leans for NCAA this week:

TNF Bets 9.24

Posted in NCAA Football, NFL - 2015/09/24 - 0 Comment

Washington +4 (-120)

I don’t think the Giants are 4 points better than anybody right now. This is also a hedge for our WSH Season Under 6.5 bet.

Cincinnati/Memphips Under 70

Hat tip to buffaloholdem on twitter for this one. We took his Temple/Umass Under 55 lean last week as well as the 2H Under 30.

TEASER:

Washington +4
Cincinnati/Memphips Under 70

May you find the goal any way you can tonight:

MNF Lean

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/21 - 0 Comment

Jets +7 (-115)

This is now at -125. I think if the Jets stay committed to the run and control the clock, they’ll have a shot. CB Antonio Cromartie is also playing tonight. The Colts are sneaky bad; good QB but that is about it. Hilton has a bum hamstring, they still can’t stop the run, the free agents they picked up were good in 2010 and the coach is bad and on a lame duck season. Bad vibes all around.

I don’t usually bet on the Jets, but I took the Raiders =& in the 4PMs as I was stuck….. and I got there.

And here’s some awesome fail in CFB this weekend:

NFL Week 2

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/20 - 0 Comment

Here are my leans for this week:

PIT -6 (-105)

This has fallen from -7 to -6. I think the Steelers bounce back today and Antonion Brown has a big game vs an average 49ers defensive backfield. I will say, the 49ers looked pretty good on defense last week – but that might be more due to the fact the Vikings offense blows. BTW, the Steelers are most likely in “America’s teaser” today.

TEN -1 (-110)

Bet against Johnny Manziel anytime you can. Most of the money is on the Titans, but I still feel confident as the Browns are 1-9 in the their last season openers. The most hilarious one of them being from LB Dwyane Rudd throwing off his helmet and getting a penalty at the end of the game after a sack, allowing KC to get a late FG.

CIN -3.5 (+105)

I got this early before the juice moved; it is now at -110. This is a 1 o’clock start and West Coast teams usually struggle. And the Bengals looked pretty good in Week 1, thanks to fantasy sleeper TE Tyler Eifert.

CHI +2 (-110)

Arizona is missing Andre Ellington today. I hate betting on Jay Cutler but I think this is a coin flip game and I’ll take the points.

SEA/GB Over 49 (-115)

There will be alot of big plays in this one.

Lou also likes TB +10….but I just can’t bet on Jameis Winston (unless I am counting on a ride from the strip club from him). But its a good bet as 80+% of the money is on the Saints.

TEASER:

PIT -6
DET +3
SEA/GB Over 49

I’m also doing a 7 team parlay today, that is below:

And here are my DFS lineups:

TNF Lean 9.17

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/17 - 0 Comment

I like the Chiefs tonight -3 (-105). Early season Thursday night favorites killed last year, for a factor of reasons:

1) Most of these games are divisional. And divisional home teams usually do well, even if their records suck, because they know the other side so well. The first 5 games on TNF last year were huge blowouts for the favorites.

2) Short turnarounds: you give a team 4+ days to prepare for a divisional opponent? That’s awfully tough.

KC bullish reasons:

3) Travis Kelce is a beast, probably the second best tight end in the NFL behind Gronkowski (why not Jimmy Graham? Kelce can actually block). His numbers are more amazing considering the fact that KC hasn’t thrown a TD pass to a WR in over 17 straight games.

4) Peyton Manning’s noodle arm. He was 0-12 on passes that went long than 15 yards last game vs the Ravens. The majority of his completions were bubble screens. This is not good if you are a Broncos fan; I expect KC to play aggressive tonight and make Manning prove he can throw the ball deep. 70% chance of rain tonight in KC as well.

5) Denver’s offensive line looked really shaky, and are up against two excellent bookend DEs in Houston and Halu.

6) CJ Anderson, the Broncos starting RB, is probably not playing tonight.

Two bearish reasons: The Broncos defense looked fairly good last game and 65% of the money is on KC.

I’ll leave you with this goal of the year in UCL yesterday:

http://twitter.com/FootyLiveVines/status/644228870078623744

NFL Week 1

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/13 - 0 Comment

Miami -4 (EVEN)

This is now at -120. I think the money came in after RGIII was cleared to play!

Jacksonville +3.5

I think someone wins this game 17-16

Rams +4 (-110)

Seattle’s gonna have issues in pass protection as they traded away their center for Jimmy Graham.

Dallas/NYG Over 52 (-110)

Probably gets to 54 by gametime.

TEASER:

GB -7*
Miami -4
Dallas/NYG Over 52

*everybody in America has Green Bay in a teaser today

Mayweather vs Berto

Posted in Uncategorized - 2015/09/12 - 0 Comment

Quick sure bets for Mayweather vs Berto on Saturday Night:

Over Rounds 11.5 – 240

Fight goes the Distance – 205

Floyd picked this fight so he could run around Berto for 12 rounds and get a quick decision to match Rocky Marciano’s record of 49-0. Berto has a good chin, and in his last loss got knocked down twice and was able to finish the fight, losing in a decision. Floyd has immaculate cardio, an underrated chin, and precision defensive boxing that allows him to manage how the fight goes. The only worry is that Berto “goes for it” and opens his chin to a counter……but Floyd’s power is his really his only weakness (which is why he fights the way he does; smart really).

The last two guys Mayweather KO’d were Ricky “Fatton” Hatton (who probably killed himself to make weight, hence why he ran out of gas by the 8th round) and Victor Ortiz (who Floyd sucker punched…”legally”). Berto is too tough for that stuff and I foresee these guys holding onto each other for 12 rounds like they are on prom night. Mayweather “Overs” have hit 5 fights in a row.

Mayweather is +170 to win by KO, if you are curious and want to hedge.

Boring fights make for boring decisions…..but padding one’s bankroll is exciting enough!

BONUS: Swansea FC +170

Tags :

2015 NFL Over/Unders

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/10 - 0 Comment

Unlike baseball, this is a best of 5 format between Pat, Sean and myself. Also unlike baseball, I have not been getting progressively worse over the past several seasons. Winner gets a pub crawl and the losers have to watch. Here are my plays and sad justifications…

5) Arizona UNDER 8.5
I don’t think there is any unit on this team one can point to and state that it’s improved from last year. Somehow this team went 11-5 despite playing only three good games (weeks 9-11) in the entire fucking season. They should have finished 5-11 and spared everyone the worst playoff performance by a quarterback since Jake Delhomme.

4) Atlanta OVER 8.5
Hometown pick as the Falcons get the easiest schedule in the NFL and an actual player who can rush the opposing quarterback! That should turn the secondary from swiss cheese into something malleable but without massive holes leaving the offensive line as the only area of significant weakness. Having the best QB in the division also helps compared with an aging interception machine, wet dream option QB and black Johnny Manziel

3) Dallas OVER 9.5
The Falcons with Dallas’s offensive line would win at least 13 games. Dallas can beat up nearly every opponent and slow things down just enough to grind out lots of wins that fail to cover the spread. We can all marvel as Tony Romo morphs in to present day Chris Chandler right in front of us.

2) Tennessee OVER 5.5
Here’s an instance where I would feel far more comfortable backing this shitty team if the coaching staff were competent enough to take what their players are actually good at and plan on accentuating those things instead of forcing a scheme and then bitching about how the players can’t execute. Fortunately, Marcus Mariota is good enough to overcome this handicap with a cupcake schedule and division and the fact that this is the least popular team in the NFL and most likely candidate for the black and white game of the week.

1) Washington UNDER 6.5
See Sean’s post below. We here at Miracle Covers enjoy betting on failure and hopefully they’ll win just enough to pick #2 in the draft again.

NFL Lean 9.10.2015

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/10 - 0 Comment

One lean tonight that I have: the PIT/NE Under at 52 -115.

Factors that can contribute to the under tonight in my view:

Momentum: Everyone is saying that the Patriots will be fired up, especially with Brady playing, and will come out and kick ass tonight. Sometimes this also can work against you and you can play too high and become too tight and excited, when a snag or two happens in the game. Brady has also looked bad in preseason, but that also maybe due to the fact that he’s had alot of shit on his mind. TBH they are saving the “fuck you” game for the Colts in October…and the team will probably be more “in form” by then as supposed to now where they could be still, working out the kinks.

Both teams have O-Line issues: no Brian Stork tonight. The center was THE difference between the Pats O-Line playing well last year or playing bad. According to Greg Bedard of CNNSI, the guards also have looked mediocre at best in the preseason games. Replacement C David Andrews looked good in the preseason, but we’ll have to see how he and the rest of the O-Line handle an athletic Steelers Front 7 tonight. For the Steelers, Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey is not playing tonight.

Defenses: two of the NFL’s top Front Sevens face each other tonight. The Steelers have lots of athletic, highly drafted, young LBs, a new defensive coordinator (Brady has always owned the last PIT DC Dick LeBeau, who was there for like 30 years), along with vet James Harrison. The Patriots have one of the most diverse Front Sevens in all of football and they could be even better this year as they are 100% healthy. To point out a contrary analysis: both of these secondaries to me are “meh”. The Pats lost future Hall of Famer Darrelle Revis, Kyle Arrington, and Brandon Browner to FA and there’s a lot of young guys who are unproven replacing them (I can’t name who the #1 CB is, probably Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler). The Steelers have no idea who their safeties on are as I write this, and whoever it is has big shoes to fill since losing legend and future Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu. Both get a break tonight because for them, thankfully….

Injuries/Suspensions at Skill positions: Pats WR Brandon LaFell is on PUP. Edleman has been out of camp all summer and could be rusty (keep an eye on him and concussions; could be an issue this year). RB LeGarrette Blount is suspended (while with the Steelers) for being caught in a car by cops in Pittsburgh smoking a blunt with Steelers’ running back LeVeon Bell, widely considered one of the best RBs in all of football (and for fantasy folks, is great for PPR leagues). The Steelers are also without another fantasy sleeper, WR Martavius Bryant, who was ALSO caught smoking weed*.

*note to self: make sure to try the weed when in Pittsburgh.

Weather: from Pats play-by-play guy Scott Zolak who is already down at Gillette:

It has been humid all week in New England, and the “skies are about to open” tonight, and it looks like the rain could also pick up during the 3rd and 4th quarters. According to Zolak as well, they aren’t covering the field as it pours in Foxboro as I write this. Expect a slow track tonight. The line is now at 51, and -109, on Nitrogen Sports.

Here are my DFS lineups for this week; I am usually not a fan but had to jump in at least for Week 1 and the $10m Guarantee on Draft Kings. As you can see, hints for what we are bullish on for Sunday with the player selections: DAL/NYG Over 52, and Rams +4.