Month: November 2014
NFL Week 13
TB +4 (+125) and ML +215 vs CIN
I agree with Lou here. Tampa has been the “crappy team that I bet on because they cover” in the last month for me (Lou has his Rams); their defense is not bad and Lovie Smith is turning the roster over nicely to a Cover 2 scheme (which is why Barron was traded) after an initial bad transition period. Tampa might be good next year if they figure out the QB situation. Cincinnati is one of the more erratic teams in the league, they should win this game by 2 TDs, but they’ll keep Tampa around and win by a FG most of the time here.
Baltimore -6 (-110) vs SD
San Diego’s 4rd cross country trip this year (they lost 31-0 in Miami few weeks ago); Baltimore has always played better at home and has been a yearly play for me when they play at M&T Bank Stadium.
Oakland at St Louis Under 42
Black and white game of the week
Colts -10 (+110) vs WAS
The juice got bumped up, so I called as I think Luck > McCoy. Although my D.C. under bet (7.5) is slightly in jeopardy with McCoy in there (Washington needs to run the table).
TEASER (+275):
BAL -6
NE +3
IND -10
TB +4
0-fer
0-for-Saturday here yesterday as I was 0-4 on amateur football and 0-1 on hockey with the Devils losing 3-1. I did find a winner on Calgary right before gametime but was out & about and didn’t get it posted here or on twitter.
NFL today and there’s only one game I actually like and that’s the Tampa getting +6 and +200 hosting the Bungles. I have leans on Washington, Jacksonville and New Orleans but am passing on all three.
There is a chance I’ll have a few NBA games this evening. Good luck today
UPDATE: Tampa covered but somehow did not win. NBA tonight:
Minnesota +13 @ Portland
Toronto -7 @ Lakers
Saturday
2-0 yesterday with Sacramento covering. I have a quiet 5 wins in a row in NBA as does Sean with his Celtic overs that are now 6-0. Buffalo won in hockey and Edmonton lost in overtime because I am running bad. Likely nothing in any sports other than amateur tackle football. I’ll try an update before the evening games but here is what we have so far:
Syracuse +12 @ Boston College
North Texas +5 @ UTSA
Connecticut +21.5 @ Memphis
UPDATE: Syracuse and UNT were both losers. Wake Forest +17 @ Duke
Hockey: New Jersey +155 @ Islanders
First of Many
If he falters there are many to take his place
Friday
1-0 for me yesterday as Detroit won easily and I passed on both LSU and SF last night. A quick note to Sean and anyone else is that the fading the broadcast teams only tends to work when the line is under a touchdown. Edmonton and Buffalo are showing up on my hockey list today but I am not taking either of those teams while mired in a losing streak. A college football game to start the day: Ball State + 10 @ some MAC team.
UPDATE: Ball St. covered the 10 and won by 17! NBA tonight because I’m an idiot, Sacramento + 12 @ San Antonio
Turkey Betting Tips
Give thanks to gambling! Here are my plays:
Chicago +7 and Bears +260
I said I would never bet on a Cutler-led team again, but the Bears woeful secondary gets Kyle Fuller back and the Lions will not have Reggie Bush this game. Bush makes a TD difference in their PPG when he is playing as supposed to when he is not. I also think that Jim Caldwell continues to be in a coma and somehow fucks this one up. The Bears, as bad as they have played, actually have their season on the line today. A win gets them back in the NFC WC hunt. Also another thing working for me, Lou’s “kiss of death” – when all of the NFL pregame show panelists pick one team (the Lions).
PHI v DAL Under 56.5
Way too many points, should be around 50-52.5. This will be played like a grind-it-out playoff game for the NFC East and will be in the early 20s. Also Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo are quarterbacking these football teams.
SF -1 (-115) v SEA
This is more of a hedge towards my season long SF Under bet (10.5 – they are now at 7 wins). I really hope the Saints setting their lead on fire at home to the 49ers a few weeks ago doesn’t cost me this bet.
On a side note – Seattle with their win last Sunday put them back in the NFC #1 seed hunt (Seattle owns a tie-breaker with GB and an Arizona collapse is imminent b/c their QB sucks despite their great defense; they really should start Logan Thomas) – if they get that #1 seed, no one beats them. They are right now 11/2 to win the NFC. They are a very shaky road team BUT I do think (and the video below shows this some) that the Lynch 100k “not talking to the media” fine might have galvanized them.
Oral Roberts
Scored 69 points last night. That is all for now.
Thursday
Among many many other things, I’m grateful of late for other sports picking up for some terrible hockey plays of late. Detroit -7 to start the day with two options in LSU and San Francisco this evening
Thanksgiving Wednesday
Not the best Tuesday for us as our shitty hockey plays as I termed them on Twitter went 1-2 with our respective teams opening at 1-3, 0-3 and 0-3, with Colorado, the team that won for us, conceding on an impressive 8 shots. Not to be outdone, Edmonton conspired to give up a goal from centre ice in their 3-2 loss. Colorado beat Arinix 4-3 in overtime and because it seems like the Coyotes are constantly leading after two periods before setting the game on fire I pulled the following chart together:
| TEAM | POINTS | 3RD PERIOD GD |
| COLUMBUS | 14 | -18 |
| DALLAS | 22 | -15 |
| BUFFALO | 14 | -15 |
| ARIZONA | 21 | -10 |
| WASHINGTON | 21 | -7 |
| PHILADELPHIA | 19 | -5 |
| SAN JOSE | 24 | -4 |
| NEW JERSEY | 21 | -4 |
| CAROLINA | 15 | -4 |
| WINNIPEG | 25 | -2 |
| MINNESOTA | 24 | -2 |
| EDMONTON | 14 | -2 |
| ST LOUIS | 30 | -1 |
| PITTSBURGH | 30 | -1 |
| FLORIDA | 20 | 0 |
| ANAHEIM | 33 | 1 |
| DETROIT | 27 | 1 |
| BOSTON | 27 | 1 |
| NY ISLANDERS | 30 | 2 |
| NY RANGERS | 22 | 2 |
| TORONTO | 24 | 5 |
| COLORADO | 21 | 5 |
| TAMPA BAY | 30 | 6 |
| LOS ANGELES | 27 | 6 |
| NASHVILLE | 30 | 7 |
| OTTAWA | 24 | 7 |
| VANCOUVER | 31 | 8 |
| MONTREAL | 33 | 9 |
| CHICAGO | 25 | 12 |
| CALGARY | 28 | 18 |
In the ‘no shit’ category of analysis, the teams at the top end of this table are worse than those at the bottom, but this explains a good chunk of the underperformance of Dallas, Columbus and Phoenix and the hot start of the Canadian trio of Calgary, Vancouver and Montreal all of whom seem to be playing slightly below or above their talent levels would suggest. The best teams should be only slightly and not extremely positive as they hopefully have lots of leads they have successfully defended.
NBA because I’m an idiot:
New York +14 @ Dallas
Indiana +13 @ San Antonio
Waiting on the line on the two NHL games I am interested in. Will get an update here pretty quickly
UPDATE: Hopefully we’ll go 1-1. Let it be noted I am betting on Buffalo. No time to wait around for the Philly line to move to 155.
Winnipeg @ Buffalo +140
Philadelphia +150 @ Detroit
