Month: September 2014
Royal Hedge
I have a good amount of money on the A’s winning the AL before the year (I took them before the Samardzija trade and after, it totals to around A’s +425); unfortunately, despite beefing up their starting rotation….their lineup has sucked balls since trading Cespedes for Lester in July.
Therefore, my hedging starts tonight as the Royals host their first playoff game since 1985. I’m taking KC at -103 (Shields) vs Lester and the A’s on the mound. Also, for your edification, the over/under is 6.5; under tonight’s umpire, Bill Miller, the total has hit the under 58.6% since 2005.
This hilarious nugget from the briliant Joe Posnanski sums up the Royals futility over the last 19 years:
In the afterglow, I find myself trying to remember the low moment, the moment that summed up all of what it meant being a Kansas City Royals fan the last 20 years or so. I think of the time Tim Belcher was named the Kansas City Royals pitcher of the year despite the somewhat limiting fact that he had a 5.02 ERA and had pitched no better than the numbers. He sat on stage glumly, accepted the award with a sheepish speech about how he didn’t deserve this award (in this case, he really didn’t) and sat down no doubt thinking he couldn’t wait to get out of Kansas City (which he did a year later).
The Royals, those Royals, are going to the playoffs.
And now here’s a chart from Skidmore College statistics professor Michael Lopez on how Sabermetric MLB Forecasts Stacked Up Against Vegas:
It has been a great gambling year for me…….but Boston is, IMO, kind of coming back to Earth with sports success. Rough night for the Pats last night; it might of been their worst game in the Brady-Belichick era….and Bill Simmons couldn’t say a word about it. He probably hates the NFL so much right now, that motherfucker isn;t even watching the games!
On top of the that, WSOP Bracelet winners, and KC natives, the Hinkle Brothers, let this Pats fan know just how they felt about the game last night. That Pats under (11 at -150) is looking good right about now:
NFL Week 4
Chicago +2 (-110)
Green Bay might be a bad team. I hate betting on Jay Cutler but I’ll take the point when they are at home here. Plus it looks like Marshall is playing. This line has gone back ands forth from +1 to +2 all week.
Baltimore -3 (-120)
The Panthers are banged up and might only have 2 RBs available today. Cam Newton has been walking around like he’s in a nursing home due to a bad back. And it’s also Steve Smith III revenge day; also taking two props on him hitting the Over in Rec Yards at 69.5 and score a TD at +130.
Steelers -9 (+115) and Teaser: PIT -9 and Under 44.5
TB is the worst team in the league, and the Steelers can run the ball again for the first time since 2009.
Teaser: Dallas +3 and Over 54.5
This is an important game for both teams; its SNF which usually means a lot of points. More betting on the type of game here, close and high scoring, than on Dallas itself.
I’m also really tempted to take the Raiders ML +155 in London vs the Dolphins. Tannenhill’s last presser where he addressed his job made him sound like a used car salesman, just like his coach.
Here are your most bet on games of the day:
Most bet NFL games:
1. Falcons-Vikings
2. Packers-Bears
3. Saints-Cowboys
4. Eagles-49ers— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 28, 2014
Week 4
A lost week for me. Last Sunday was painful, I was and still am convinced I was on the “right” side with St. Louis and Minnesota last week but ended up with a pair of close losses in both cases. I also missed a couple of profitable plays in baseball being too caught up with work. Baseball ends today with no notable games as the betting drops off significantly in September. NFL with this bye week has not a whole lot looking good either. One one game I have today and it Minnesota +3 +110 or +3.5 -105 hosting Atlanta. This will be a 2u game for me.
Any updates to be posted as we go along. Hockey starts soon, thankfully.
Saturday Plays
NCAA Teaser:
Texas at Kansas 42
Notre Dame -10 vs Syracuse (Meadowlands)
UFC:
Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier Under Rounds 1.5 @ +120
Yoel Romero -140 (vs Tim Kennedy) and Fight goes the distance -120
Here’s to all bettors not hitting the goal post while trying to throw a pass today
Thursday Night Football
WAS v NYG Over 45.5
Week 3
My Week 2 sucked; here’s to a rebound (although I’ve had a good week thereafter the disaster on Sunday):
Dallas -1.5
Yes, I am sucker. But the Rams’ Shaun Hill might play instead of Austin Davis; which is funny because the line probably got suspended due to the fact the Cowboys become bigger FAVORITES if he plays lol
I thought the Rams might be the worst team in the NFL; but nope, that’s is Tampa Bay. The Bucs should be relegated for the uniforms alone. Then this happens:
What an absolutely perfect snap. https://t.co/CpzTqmBqsQ
— Steve Noah (@Steve_OS) September 19, 2014
Baltimore Pick (-105)
Got this at a pick’em on Monday; it’s now -2. Ravens coming off of a long week layoff, and I can’t resist anytime to bet against Mike Pettine (although the “short Saints on the road” might be the bet of the year). The Saints might be fraudulent, alot like this dive by an Army player:
https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/513702676564307969
Seattle -5
They are at home, coming off a loss, and keep murdering teams in that building.
Vikings/Saints Over 49
Now at 50. I’m putting this in a 4 team teaser too:
TEASER: +375
NO/MIN OVER 49
Seattle -5
GB +1
IND -1
On a last note; make sure when YOU score a goal, to hug a loved one right after, yellow card be damned:
Italian footballer celebrates a goal running to hug Grandma on the stands, gets a yellow card for it. Take that, NFL. pic.twitter.com/uaVekMw8yN
— GianpieroPetriglieri (@gpetriglieri) September 21, 2014
Sunday
Cubs were an 8-7 winner yesterday coming all the way back from 7-1 down in the late innings for a miracle cover. Not much doing in baseball today. Two NFL plays this morning:
Dallas @ St. Louis +1 -103
Minnesota +10.5 -117 @ New Orleans
EDIT: Found a baseball game Miami +145
Latw NFLArizona +3
Saturday Baseball
Cubs +111 with Doubront going against the Dodgers.
Late Night Picks
UFC Japan:
Gomi +425 vs Miles “Fury” Jury
Mark Hunt vs Roy Nelson Fight does not complete two rounds -110 and one round +185
NCAA Saturday:
SMU v Texas A&M Over 59
Friday
Falcons and the Over were embarassingly easy winners last night. One leaner in baseball tonight and that’s San Diego with nothing much else doing. Hockey training camps have opened so we are only a few weeks away from real games. October 8th & 9th is opening night.
