Month: March 2014
Opening Day
It’s my favorite day of the year and effectively starts the new year For me so hooray to that. 1-0 on our leans with San Diego’s win and we have another leaner with the Mets and Gee hosting the Natinals. Possible play on Arizona tonight. Hockey later as well.
Just as a reminder that we will have plays on home teams underdogs up to +200 only with some other criteria. Unlike other sports baseball has a tangible benefit to batting last which benefits home teams in addition to the usual referee and travel biases that cover all sports. More on this as time allows…
UPDATE: All 4 away hockey games qualify for leans though there is only one play and that is Carolina EVEN at Ottawa. One baseball game as well Arizona +111
2014 MLB Over/Unders
Lou and I had very respectable showings in this last year. Let’s see how things go this year. As always, the stakes are a pub crawl…
10)San Francisco Giants Under 86.5 The Giants in recent years have begun to diversify their portfolio, adding increasingly mediocre pitching to a team that couldn’t score runs. After winning only 76 games last year they went out and signed a soon to be 39 year old pitcher in Tim Hudson, and Michael Morse whose career numbers are surprisingly lame. I’m not even talking about how much he likes to strike out, did you know he has only once hit 20 hrs in a season? The only thing that possibly saves everyone is Sandoval carrying the team on some crazy contract year.
9)Texas Rangers Under 87 I just saw that Tanner Scheppers, he of zero career starts, is getting the ball today. The Rangers will be counting on the likes of Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, and Robbie Ross, whoever the Hell that is. And while you could note that some of these guys are stopgaps, the folks they are filling in for aren’t the most confidence-inspiring group either, with Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis making a combined 2 starts last year.
8)Cincinnati Reds Under 84.5 I think Choo leaving is going to hurt quite a bit. Outside of Votto and Bruce this lineup is not impressive. The pitching staff is solid but like half their bullpen is starting the season on the disabled list.
7)Cleveland Indians Over 80.5 I know the Indians were probably more lucky than good last year, but this is still a solid team. Good rotation, decent lineup, and Axford is looking like a strong rebound candidate.
6)Atlanta Braves Under 87.5 Very similar to the Texas injury situation. They have a very good bullpen but you need people to get you there. The lineup is good but it seems slightly awkward. Heyward as leadoff and Chris Johnson hitting cleanup do not seem ideal. Gattis better stay healthy and productive.
5)Chicago White Sox Under 76.5 The pitching staff isn’t awful, but they would need pretty much everyone in there to have career years in order to be a competitive team. God help them if Chris Sale gets injured. I like the addition of Adam Eaton, but like many of the other bats in this lineup, he is laregly an unproven commodity.
4)Boston Red Sox Under 88 Do you expect Buckholz to go 12-1 again? Do you expect David Ortiz to match any of the power numbers he put up last season? Do you expect Victorino to flirt with .300 again? Nava, Carp, and Napoli to repeat their numbers? Too often Middlebrooks and Bradley Jr will be exposed this year I believe. And though I love his potential, Xander has not actually done anything yet.
3)Oakland A’s Under 88.5 I am not the world’s biggest Bartolo fan, but Oakland will miss him. Think about this rotation, Colon gone, Parker injured, Griffin injured, Millone suspect, Gray unproven, Balfour gone.
2)Miami Marlins Over 69.5 The same phrase emerges when reading Miami previews. They aren’t going to contend, but they will be improved. I can believe it.
1)Toronto Blue Jays Over 80.5 If you recall, the Blue Jays were the hotness going into things last year. In fact they were the odds on World Series favorites at one point around January. The point with that is simply to note there is still a solid amount of talent on this team. Enough to win half their games at any rate.
2014 MLB Win Totals
Here are my picks for the season. Per usual, I had more problems getting these in a suitable order than picking the teams. Last season I went 8 for 10, but missed on the top two teams in the confidence scoring but still managed to beat Pat anyway. Here are my 10 for 2014:
10) Indians Over 80.5
9) Cubs Over 70
8) Phillies Under 76.5
7) Mariners Under 81
6) Braves Under 78.5
5) Reds Over 84.5
4) Athletics Under 88.5
3) Twins Under 70.5
2) Cardinals Over 91.5
1) Tigers Under 90
Dodgers would be on this list but it’s a bit dodgy to place them since they’ve banked two wins already. I’m posting my NL draft writeup here at some point and one of the themes is being down on lots of the Dodgers individually (Puig & Kemp in particular), but collectively there aren’t many weak spots. The same theme applies for the Cardinals so they’re listed for an Over instead. Cleveland and the Cubs have fixed downsides which is helpful. Usually overs on poor teams are challenging since those teams will rent their best players about to be out of contract, but other than Samardjia, I’m not sure who the Cubs could trade and I also expect some of their farm system talent to force their way up soon enough. Phillies, Mariners and Braves are dealing with Age, Incompetence and Injuries respectively. The Mariners will need Cano to cover up a host of issues including relying on an outfield that would probably be slightly improved defensively with me manning left field than any of the Hart/Morrision/Ackley white person trio. They have starting pitching injuries as well though not to the extent as the Braves losing theirs for the season instead of for a month or two.
Lean on the Padres (Cashner) at home for opening night hosting the Dodgers (Ryu). I’ll try and keep up with plays the next week or two before I disappear for the better part of April.
Friday
Posting on time and with the correct day today. No plays yesterday or today but we do have a lean on Toronto +145 at Philadelphia. I’ve added an exclusion for teams on long losing streaks to avoid having plays on the hockey equivalent of the Astros popping up over and over again. Toronto has lost 6 straight heading into tonight and they’re legitimate losses not the OT or shootout variety. They’ve also conceded 3+ every game as well. So they are in the leaner column along with Nashville who is on a back to back. Hopefully we will get a real play in this weekend.
Thursday
Late post today as our NHL season comes to a slow and inconsequential end. No plays again tonight despite a full slate of games. Vancouver who won yesterday and is officially now a garden variety below average team is the best option tonight but rejected for our purposes since they are on a back to back. Hopefully we can find a game to play this week. Enjoy the NCAA action.
Wednesday
Nothing doing again tonight with only three NHL games to choose from and the end of the season rapidly approaching. Lots of back to backs to end the year as well further reducing our options in most cases (If both teams played the night before it’s a wash). Vancouver is the best game of the three though it is a marginal lean at best. I will make sure to track leans next to my plays next season. Win totals for baseball also coming soon though sides and totals won’t be available until early May.
Tuesday
It’s pretty clear that you’re running poorly when marginal plays that are passed turn into winners while the ostensibly “better” plays are consistently losing. Sean is living in that world at the moment as the Jets were much further away from winning than their 2-1 loss would suggest. Keri Lehtonen was excellent in goal for Dallas. Montreal and Ottawa were both shootout winners, the latter ending a 7 or 8 game losing streak.
Nothing doing today despite a full slate of games. Detroit is the closest thing to a play. I have my NL-only Superdork draft tomorrow night and will post a link if possible if anyone wants to follow along.
How to turn $1 into $869
So, been a pretty bad week for me sports gambling the last week: I batted 0.233 in my NCAA bets, my brackets are cooked, and I missed all but 2 of my suggestions on this blog for NCAA this week. Thank god for poker lately, as I have been running hot.
However, amazing feat last night for the UFC Card in Brazil: Shogun vs Henderson 2.
I was playing some MTTs late last night and was going to watch the event while pokering. If you have followed my UFC bets here on the site, I’ve done very well with a 62% ROI on UFC bets YTD, including killing it on these Brazil cards since I always look for good odds for fighters FROM BRAZIL fighting guys who are NOT. Especially when they are underdogs…..they just fight jacked up and put on a great show for the home crowd.
I liked two fighters on the card: Fabio Maldonado +230 (a boxer with a granite chin) and Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525. For the Santos fight: not only had I not heard of the guy he was fighting (Ronny Markes….and I follow MMA pretty closely), the guy also missed weight by 5 FUCKING POUNDS. I’ll take the +525 (Thiago Santos beat him in the first round with a liver kick to the stomach).
I also did something fun: I parlayed 4 dogs in a $1 parlay that would pay out $188.24:
Thiago “Marreta” Santos +525
Fabio Maldonado +230
Michel “Trator” Richard Cunha Dos Prazeres +260 (his opponent grabbed the cage *4* times during the fight, resulting in 3 points taken away. I’ve never seen that before, even in WWF steel cage matches)
Leonardo Santos +230
Well wouldn’t you know it, the first 3 hit! So we had a great hedging opportunity with the last fight with Leo Santos, a Brazilian JiuJitsu Blackbelt who is the sensei for champions Henan Barao and Jose Aldo, versus Norman Parke, a Judo Olympic Team Member from Northern Ireland.
Parke was a -335 favorite (this encompasses ALL results, like No Contests), so I betted around that since we had around $80-$100 in hedging cash and -335 was too high to bet on the fight alone.
I took:
Parke to win via decision -150
Parke via KO (kick or punch standing) +400
Parke Inside Distance (submission/ground n’ pound TKO) +250
AND $10 on the draw at +7500
The fight itself, was awful. A grappler vs judo guy usually is a good stylistic matchup, but these guys just canceled each other out.
Parke was strong enough to hold Santos against the cage (therefore taking him away from his ground game with BJJ and establish octagon control), but didn’t have enough power in his fists to make significant damage to impress the judges or KO Santos.
Santos is very green striking and you can tell; but his wrestling defense (sprawl) is very good.
The referee was also awful, giving Parke a 1 point deduction for grabbing the shorts during a takedown in the second round (its usually just a warning, even if you pull the guys’ pants down). This was the type of fight that tilts the fuck out of Dana White, especially since it was 3rd to last fight and the card up to then was one of the best I’ve seen in the history of the promotion as 90% of the fights ended in a KO.
And wouldn’t you know it, the judges scored it 29-28 Santos, and 28-28 and 28-28, shipping us the draw! On top of that, and I didn’t even know this: for 2/3rds of the bets I made on this site, since the match ended as a draw in MMA, I also chopped that cash too! And it was….a miracle cover!
The amazing thing about this UFC card, sans this draw: EVERY SINGLE UNDERDOG WON. I think if you parlayed all of the dogs on the card that night, it probably would of been 100,000-to-1. The type of shit that keeps a bookie up at night.
I now have some more money to set on fire at the WSOP in the summer, and I also now will take Winnipeg +150 tonight on the road. #whynot
Monday
Forgive me I am late posting today. One NHL play tonight it’s Winnipeg +150 @ Dallas. Ottawa and Montreal for sadists, action junkies and the like. 28-22 +15.91 for the season.
